A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

Just now, drewski6 said:

I disagree with this. The more positions he can play, the more likely he is to find a spot on the team. I dont think they permanently ruined his ability to play 2b by playing him in the of 15 games or ruined his ability to play of by playing him at 2b 15 games.  He'll find his level defensively.

He had a chance last year at 2B, but he not a 2B. He’s not the RAF Man who can move from OF to IF like he did playing a lot of SS one year. Some guys can handle moving around, but I don’t think KC is one of them, so I disagree 100% that KC will eventually get a roster spot, because he can move around. Either he hits or he doesn’t.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, but ty (sincerely) for the "more than anything else" - thats the level of nuance I appreciate.

I can agree with this.  But I would add that while I agree the 18m is the primary reason, a secondary reason that shouldnt be dismissed is that he cnat be sent down.  A lot of times team send down the player who they can send down (i.e. has options remaining).  Like if a prospect slightly outplayed a vet, but you cant send that vet down and you are not sure which one will be the guy come playoffs, you send down the kid to buy yourself time.

Postpone decisions and hoard talent.  Obviously, its case by case - so you dont always send down the player who you can, but you take into account who you can send down.  If Anthony was out of options last year, he would have broke with the big club.

I don’t think Masa will get a roster spot just, because if he can’t get sent down.

[drewski6]

Just now, Old Red said:

I don’t think Masa will get a roster spot just, because if he can’t get sent down.

Maybe for a little bit of time though. Anyone you can send down you can call back up.  If you jettison Masa that cant be undone. EVery year guys get sent down because teams can send them down on every team.  They had to change the rules and create prospect promotion incentives jsut becasue.  

Theres secondary reasons too....E.g. delaying KC service time counter to get his prime years cheap and not have to extend him for bigger money.  This stuff plays in, but I agree its never the "only reason"

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Ive seen some good swings from him, and I dont like some of these obp and obp derivative stats.

Yeah, what's the point in getting on base?

[drewski6]

Most roster decisions are not made for a single reason.  Theres usually a multiple of reasons/variables considered and who can be sent down does get taken into account.

[mvp 78]

Swinging the bat GOOD. Getting on base BAD. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox didn’t help matters either by trying to make Campbell into a super utility guy who co could play all over the field, because that’s how things are done.

If his defense was really good at one of the positions, they probably would have stuck him there. 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, what's the point in getting on base?

Old school stats are new school stats again, and former new school stats are old now.  I wanna see R's and RBI's.  OPS can be misleading if you are drawing walks and getting stranded on first base.  Now if you are hitting gappers and runners are scoring from first, thats production.  If you are hitting gappers and getting to 2nd and 3rd with less than 2 outs and getting home as a result , thats production.

The OBP is king days are from teh days when you were almost always going to be knocked in because it was such a hitters era.  Im less about "dont create an out" and IM more about "capitalize your opportunities" than I use to be because of changes in the game.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I will accept this, I am satisfied with the help I received from you and moon on trying to figure it out.

For example, here's what happened when the Mets wanted to option Kodai Senga last season: 

Senga, 32, is in the third year of a five-year, $75 million contract. Prior to joining the Mets, he pitched 11 seasons for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan. As part of the contract, Senga can only be sent to the minors with his consent, so he had to sign off on this trip to Triple-A. That is a clause commonly given to veteran players who come over from foreign leagues.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If his defense was really good at one of the positions, they probably would have stuck him there. 

They stuck him at 2B to start last season, but still had him playing some OF, which I don’t think helped him at all especially with him being so young, and inexperienced.

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Swinging the bat GOOD. Getting on base BAD. 

Im less interested in singles and walks from players who dont steal than I use to be.  Because the odds that you are going to get what you need to turn them into runs arent as high as they use to be.

Im not anti walks from speedsters or from d first players trying to contribute anything they can on offense.

Walks is inversely correlated to pull hitting, mr pull hitter.  Because your swing decision, when pulling , has to be earlier.  So you have to guess earlier and comit to what you see. Vs stay back hitters can wait , wait , wait and draw more walks. But they aint pulling or driving as much.

Its hitter by hitter.  BUt im not interested in staying back.  Unless you got the wheels or arent a great hitter.

If you want Casas to pull the ball, you want him to walk less. Ditto with KC.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t think Masa will get a roster spot just, because if he can’t get sent down.

I think he gets an Opening Day spot and the Sox delay a decision on him until they are forced to do something about it (i.e. 4 healthy OFers and a healthy Casas).

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They stuck him at 2B to start last season, but still had him playing some OF, which I don’t think helped him at all especially with him being so young, and inexperienced.

Most likely , he is a better OF than he is a 2b, but theres a chance Mayer flops, Durbin gets hurt and KC is called up as a second baseman because thats where the opportunity is, and makes the team better because of his defensive versatility.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Old school stats are new school stats again, and former new school stats are old now.  I wanna see R's and RBI's.  OPS can be misleading if you are drawing walks and getting stranded on first base.  Now if you are hitting gappers and runners are scoring from first, thats production.  If you are hitting gappers and getting to 2nd and 3rd with less than 2 outs and getting home as a result , thats production.

The OBP is king days are from teh days when you were almost always going to be knocked in because it was such a hitters era.  Im less about "dont create an out" and IM more about "capitalize your opportunities" than I use to be because of changes in the game.

You can't get on runs with just having a pretty swing. Need to actually reach base. 

While there are more home runs than ever, runs per game have not increased. 🤔

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They stuck him at 2B to start last season, but still had him playing some OF, which I don’t think helped him at all especially with him being so young, and inexperienced.

He looked better in the OF, but they had too many OFers.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he gets an Opening Day spot and the Sox delay a decision on him until they are forced to do something about it (i.e. 4 healthy OFers and a healthy Casas).

I would tend to agree on that as it stands now. Even a healthy Casas isn’t a good fit if an OF is going to rotate through the DH spot.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he gets an Opening Day spot and the Sox delay a decision on him until they are forced to do something about it (i.e. 4 healthy OFers and a healthy Casas).

Agree. Its about buying time.  There is no reason to trade Masa right now for 4m in salary relief.  Lets first make sure we get everyone back healthy from WBC. Once the games start mattering, we can still survive some games with Masa as a non ideal bench player, again still buying more time (agreeing fully with you).

As the season progresses, like for example jsut like you say happens, all outfielders are healthy, Casas is back or maybe someone else is forcing your hand.  Maybe Eaton was up and Romy is coming back and Eaton you wanna keep over Masa and now Eaton needs to take Masas spot becuse he was before taking Romys spot but Romys healthy now....Or maybe its Ward or Monasterio.... But yeah, I agree, wait till someone forces you to move Masa out of their way.

This is what Theo said to CLay B when I sent him down.  Force my hand. Granted Clay had like a 1.6 ERA in AAA so it wasnt exactly fair or a great example...But with the suspects , I say "force us to clear you a path"

[mvp 78]

If you look at the years when MLB league total runs were the highest, it almost mirrors when league OBP was the highest. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I would tend to agree on that as it stands now. Even a healthy Casas isn’t a good fit if an OF is going to rotate through the DH spot.

Rafaela CF only

Anthony LF/RF

Duran LF/CF

Abreu RF/CF/LF

Casas 1B/DH

Contreras 1B/DH

Masa DH/LF

7 guys for 5 spots. Sox are hoping for somebody to get injured to clear things up. Just kicking the can down the road. 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You can't get on runs with just having a pretty swing. Need to actually reach base. 

While there are more home runs than ever, runs per game have not increased. 🤔

Because launch angles, and high fastballs and pull approaches and all that other stuff, but yeah.

The game of baseball is nonstop adjustments and counters.  E.g. back in the day, pitches never pitched upstairs, but launch angle science improved and teams started smashing low balls especially because they could look exlusively low.  So pitchers started going upstairs to make a batter's eye cover more zone and also because the uppercut swing didnt work on high heat.  

Another change is the pitcher's are better now, so you can rely on the guy behind you less. So you want extra base hits because then you dont need 2 more hits (or a hr) to drive you in.  You can score from second on any hit.  So you want to capitalize on opportunities. So the difference in expected to score between a double and single increases.

Its all downstream effects from the constant evolution of the game.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you look at the years when MLB league total runs were the highest, it almost mirrors when league OBP was the highest. 

Because in a hitters era, both of those things are going to go up.  Its a secondary correlation to having good hitters coming up behind you. You take more walks if your 3-4-5 are Ortiz, Manny, Lowell.  Teams had monster lineups.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Because launch angles, and high fastballs and pull approaches and all that other stuff, but yeah.

The game of baseball is nonstop adjustments and counters.  E.g. back in the day, pitches never pitched upstairs, but launch angle science improved and teams started smashing low balls especially because they could look exlusively low.  So pitchers started going upstairs to make a batter's eye cover more zone and also because the uppercut swing didnt work on high heat.  

Another change is the pitcher's are better now, so you can rely on the guy behind you less. So you want extra base hits because then you dont need 2 more hits (or a hr) to drive you in.  You can score from second on any hit.  So you want to capitalize on opportunities. So the difference in expected to score between a double and single increases.

Its all downstream effects from the constant evolution of the game.

I just disagree with a lot of this. Runs are up 0.12 per game from 40 years ago. OPS is up 0.05. There is virtually no difference to the viewer in run scoring. While we can say "pitchers are better" we could also say "hitters are better." The approaches have changed and they are now working 12 months out of the year to maximize every pitch and every at bat. However, this hasn't meaningfully altered the game except cause an increase of 34% in HR rate and more station to station ball. The pacing of the game is different. 

If you took prime Tony Gwynn and had him hit in 2026, he'd still be good for about .330 (his average 84-91). 

Also I really disagree with pitchers not working upstairs previously. A lot of pitchers famously pitched up and down rather than left and right. It's why Koufax was so dominant. People have been tunnelling pitches long before they ever called it that. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Because in a hitters era, both of those things are going to go up.  Its a secondary correlation to having good hitters coming up behind you. You take more walks if your 3-4-5 are Ortiz, Manny, Lowell.  Teams had monster lineups.

Look at any decade throughout MLB history. There is a one to one correlation with an increase in OBP and an increase in runs vs the years around it. 

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying OBP is the end all be all stat. It just has a very good correlation with runs. 

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela CF only

Anthony LF/RF

Duran LF/CF

Abreu RF/CF/LF

Casas 1B/DH

Contreras 1B/DH

Masa DH/LF

7 guys for 5 spots. Sox are hoping for somebody to get injured to clear things up. Just kicking the can down the road. 

Things usually have a way of working themselves out, but yes outside of injury this looks like a different case.

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Most likely , he is a better OF than he is a 2b, but theres a chance Mayer flops, Durbin gets hurt and KC is called up as a second baseman because thats where the opportunity is, and makes the team better because of his defensive versatility.

I don’t see KC back in the IF. That’s what IFK, and Romy is for under your circumstances.

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just disagree with a lot of this. Runs are up 0.12 per game from 40 years ago. OPS is up 0.05. There is virtually no difference to the viewer in run scoring. While we can say "pitchers are better" we could also say "hitters are better." The approaches have changed and they are now working 12 months out of the year to maximize every pitch and every at bat. However, this hasn't meaningfully altered the game except cause an increase of 34% in HR rate and more station to station ball. The pacing of the game is different. 

If you took prime Tony Gwynn and had him hit in 2026, he'd still be good for about .330 (his average 84-91). 

Also I really disagree with pitchers not working upstairs previously. A lot of pitchers famously pitched up and down rather than left and right. It's why Koufax was so dominant. People have been tunnelling pitches long before they ever called it that. 

My hunch is 40 years ago is enough time for it to change and then change back.  But I dont fully disagree with some of these counter points.  Especially not about prime Tony Gwynn.  I say Roman is prime TG without the wheels and I do think Roman will have a .330 season (maybe not this year).

Im not sure about Koufax, but I know that pitchers like DLowe never went upstairs.  ANd that worked better than then I would expect it to work now. But that doesnt mean I dont think prime Dlowe in 2026 wouldnt have a spot in the middle of some MLB rotation. Maybe jsut more of a #3 than a #2.

But keep in mid: the universe is shaped exactly like the earth, if you go straight long enough , you'll wind up where you were.

Just becasue bell bottoms came back at some point doesnt mean they never left.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see KC back in the IF. That’s what IFK, and Romy is for under your circumstances.

Not this year anyway! 

They tried him at 1b and it must have been U.G.L.Y.

[drewski6]

31 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see KC back in the IF. That’s what IFK, and Romy is for under your circumstances.

But didnt you jsut say its his bat that will get him to the majors.  If KC gets to the majors this year it will be because of two things, bat + opportunity.  That opportunity might be in teh infield.  He may be better overall second baseman than IKF and Romy but not as good an outfielder of the top 4 who may be healthy.  Why not make the team better and have teh best available 2b play 2b?  Could also move Cedanne to 2b if youd rather. 

But my point is simply that there is no reason to pigeon hole people and rule out potential defensive combinations on 3/4/26.  We dont know the twists / turns of the season.  I like being versatile and adaptable to whatever may be thrown at us. Especially with Breslow who I dont trust to make the move we need

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not this year anyway! 

They tried him at 1b and it must have been U.G.L.Y.

If KC is hitting .950 in AAA in July and all 4 outfielders are healthy, chances are youll see KC at 2b (or Cedanne)