A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Brez traded Sale, and traded for Crochet giving up some prospects, so he will make moves. As for signing a high priced FA to a long term contract I’ll believe it when I see it.

Well, at least they're spending again.  The extensions for Crochet and Anthony weren't chump change.  Nor was the $61 million they expended for 1 year of Bregman and Buehler.  There's hope in that area again, at least.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What will JH allow tho?

It's impossible to project.

I'd guess he wants to reset, after we just barely went over the line, this year. That means one major signing ($25-30M AAV) and one mid level deal ($15-20M AAV.) That means a trade is needed, if we want a third major addition.

Ideally, JH allows Brez to go up to the second line, which I think would mean about $60-65M to spend. That could be a $25M, 20M and 20M trio or a $30M, $25M & 5-10M trio. (or teo mega stars and a trade.)

I would not be surprised, if JH views all the recent extensions and making up for the Devers dump and Gio-Buehler walk-aways. He'll maybe replace just Bregman and call it a winter.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, at least they're spending again.  The extensions for Crochet and Anthony weren't chump change.  Nor was the $61 million they expended for 1 year of Bregman and Buehler.  There's hope in that area again, at least.

They also moved slightly away from the one and done $10M pitcher signings with:

$39M/2 Giolito

$21M/1 Buehler

$19M/2 Sandoval

That's almost $80M for 3 years, not counting on any signings for 2026. It's already at $27M/yr x 3 years for SP'ers. We didn't get much from that $80M, but it is not chump change, either.

They paid less for Chapman & Wilson that what Jansen & Martin cost, but for once going cheaper actually worked out.

The Crochet and Anthony extensions were also accompanied by the Campbell deal. Recent extensions to Rafaela and Bello had already kicked in.

I think it's safe to say a change has occurred, but with the Devers salary dump and the pending losses of Bregman, Gio, Buehler, Wilson and Matz, we are once again questioning where we go from here on spending.

JH is known form cycling his spending, and while we all see a window opening wide and a clear reason to stay in the higher spending cycle, what the hell is JH thinking?

None of us know.

[moonslav59]

AAV Lost $Millions

31.7 Bregman

29.1 Devers

21.1 Buehler

19.3 Giolito

5.0 Hendriks

2.3 Wilson

2.1 Refsnyder

?? Matz & May

That's close to $120M gone or going, soon.

_________________________________

AAV gained (from Devers trade and onwards)

24.5 Crochet (3.8>28.3)

15.5 Anthony (Min>16.3)

10.3 Hicks (Devers trade)

6.7 Campbell (Min>7.5)

4.7 Duran (3.8>8.0)

2.5 Chapman (10.8>13.3)

~5.8 ARBs for Houck, Crawford, Romy, Casas, Wong, Bernardino, Wink & Kelly)

That's plus about $70M

I probably missed something, but it's close to $50M at stake, this winter.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sign: E Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Refsnyder and Matz.

Trade Campbell, Tolle, DHam and Sandlin for K Marte.

Trade Yoshida (owed $36M/2) +$10M and Casas for Willson Contreras (owed $41M/2)

Trade Hicks, Wong & Mullins for Seam Murphy

____________________

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Story SS

4. R Suarez 1B

5. L Duran DH/ R Refsnyder DH

6. R Murphy C/ R Narvaez C

7. L Abreu RF/R Refsnyder RF

8. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

9. Rafaela CF

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

On 10/18/2025 at 9:42 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, at least they're spending again.  The extensions for Crochet and Anthony weren't chump change.  Nor was the $61 million they expended for 1 year of Bregman and Buehler.  There's hope in that area again, at least.

Sox were 12th in payroll for year ending 2025. Not a huge jump up from where they've been the past few seasons TBH.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2025/10/13/mlb-teams-payroll-2025-highest-lowest/86667489007/

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox were 12th in payroll for year ending 2025. Not a huge jump up from where they've been the past few seasons TBH.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2025/10/13/mlb-teams-payroll-2025-highest-lowest/86667489007/

Had we not dumped Devers, we'd have been top 9 or 10.

[harmony]

On 10/18/2025 at 9:11 PM, moonslav59 said:

Sign: E Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Refsnyder and Matz.

Trade Campbell, Tolle, DHam and Sandlin for K Marte.

Trade Yoshida (owed $36M/2) +$10M and Casas for Willson Contreras (owed $41M/2)

Trade Hicks, Wong & Mullins for Seam Murphy

But this thread purports to be a "realistic look at the 2026 Red Sox."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, harmony said:

But this thread purports to be a "realistic look at the 2026 Red Sox."

You're right. How about eliminate Fenway Park's dumb Stadium Club seats and move the press box back down to the top of the home plate screen, so no structure is blocking the air currents that used to blow out before 1988 and allow batters the size of Rico Petrocelli to hit 40 home runs.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, harmony said:

But this thread purports to be a "realistic look at the 2026 Red Sox."

Believe it, baby!

LOL.

(Agreed- a bit unrealistic)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox were 12th in payroll for year ending 2025. Not a huge jump up from where they've been the past few seasons TBH.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2025/10/13/mlb-teams-payroll-2025-highest-lowest/86667489007/

These top 12 ranked teams by spending missed the playoffs in 2015:

1. NYM

6. TEX

7. HOU

8. ATL

11. AZ

These made it:

25. CLE

23. MIL (The new Rays?)

22. CIN (The newer Rays?

17. DET

16. SEA

12. BOS

10. CHC

9. SDP

5. TOR

4. PHI

3. NYY

2. LAD

While 4 of the top 5 made it, and 6 of the top 10 did, too, 3 from the middle tier and 3 from the bottom tier made the dance.

Only 4 of the top 8 made it (50%).

8 of the bottom 22 made it (36.4%)

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Had we not dumped Devers, we'd have been top 9 or 10.

Wow. We used to be top 5 almost every year, but now we could have been top 10!!!

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wow. We used to be top 5 almost every year, but now we could have been top 10!!!

I'm surprised you are excited by this. (LOL)

I certainly would never bet on us being top 5 ever again. To be there, this year, we'd have had to spend about $50M more. (Keeping Devers would have added only about $20M more.)

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm surprised you are excited by this. (LOL)

I certainly would never bet on us being top 5 ever again. To be there, this year, we'd have had to spend about $50M more. (Keeping Devers would have added only about $20M more.)

JH needs a swirlie. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

JH needs a swirlie. 

While I hope he decided to spend way more, I think a few teams are spending absurd amounts of money and there is little chance even half the teams will or even can come close to their levels.

We know JH & Co have enough. We know the Sox are worth a lot and make a lot, but this is the way of business in today's world. It's all about making more and more.

Are you some kinda commie? (LOL)

 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While I hope he decided to spend way more, I think a few teams are spending absurd amounts of money and there is little chance even half the teams will or even can come close to their levels.

We know JH & Co have enough. We know the Sox are worth a lot and make a lot, but this is the way of business in today's world. It's all about making more and more.

Are you some kinda commie? (LOL)

 

4 out of the top 5 spenders made the playoffs. 2 out of the top 5 made the Championship Series. If TOR wins tonight, the 2 WS teams will be top 5 spenders. Henry should like those odds.

SEA may not have spent a ton, but they made a splash at the deadline and have a cheap, loaded rotation. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

4 out of the top 5 spenders made the playoffs. 2 out of the top 5 made the Championship Series. If TOR wins tonight, the 2 WS teams will be top 5 spenders. Henry should like those odds.

SEA may not have spent a ton, but they made a splash at the deadline and have a cheap, loaded rotation. 

Agreed.

I'm hopeful JH realizes we now have an open window that was not really there over the past few year, unless he spent $50M more.

I think we can be a top 4-5 team by just spending to within $1-2M on the first tax line. Spend up to the second line, and there is no reason we should not be top 4.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

I'm hopeful JH realizes we now have an open window that was not really there over the past few year, unless he spent $50M more.

I think we can be a top 4-5 team by just spending to within $1-2M on the first tax line. Spend up to the second line, and there is no reason we should not be top 4.

If they had a #2, they get to the ALDS. That may be the key. Does it mean trading Duran plus two big prospects or a FA???

FA: Suarez or Cease

Trade: Twins, Reds, other team

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they had a #2, they get to the ALDS. That may be the key. Does it mean trading Duran plus two big prospects or a FA???

FA: Suarez or Cease

Trade: Twins, Reds, other team

To get to a top 4-5 team, IMO, we need:

1. Major power RHB (3B, 1B, DH or 2B)

2. Major SP'er (good #2 level at worst)

3. A decent bat (1B, 2B, 3B, DH)

We can trade for one slot, but filling the other two with $40-45M may be very tough, and we are not even sure JH okay's that amount.

[moonslav59]

Spotrac's Estimated AAV for FAs:

40 Tucker (zero chance for Sox)

33 Valdez (near 0%)

30 Bellinger (0) & Imanaga (0) conditional option

29 Alonso (maybe a slight chance/high on my list)

28 Bregman (maybe/not on my list at this price, unless 2-3 yrs)

27 Ranger Suarez (I like, but near 0 chance)

26 Cease (Please, GOD, NO!!!!)

25 Schwarber (only if we can dump Yoshida and some of his cost)

24 Bieber (doubtful)

23 Bichette (not high on my list) & M King (too much money)

20 Gio (maybe if deemed healthy)

18 Gallen (NO!!!!)

16 Eflin (maybe) & M Kelly (I'd like this at 2 yrs or $40M/3)

15 Bassitt (maybe)

14 Nick Martinez (Maybe), Torres (maybe), L Arraez (too much decline), Ozuna (???)

13 Realmuto (doubtful), Littell (maybe)

11 O'Hearn (maybe) or Josh Bell (doubtful) Willi Castro (???)

10 Rengifo (doubtful)

9 Scherzer (doubt it)

7 O'neill (doubtful)

6 Santana (doubt it)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder says he wants to play in 2026.

The Sox have RHBs Jh Garcia and K Campbell waiting for a shot, so maybe we trade one of them or a LHB OF'er, or we just put it off for one more year by bringing everyone back.

Ref has been one of the league's best batters vs LHPs for 3-4 years, and some of our LHBs struggle mightily vs LHPs, namely Duran, Abreu, DHam and Mayer. Since Rafaela has even and not so good splits, he's not an offensive boost vs lefties.

I like the idea of offering Duran, Garcia and maybe Sandlin or Mullins for Greene. Then, hopefully JH allows enough money to be spent on 2 good bats (3B, 1B, 2B, DH.)

[drewski6]

On 10/20/2025 at 10:52 AM, mvp 78 said:

Wow. We used to be top 5 almost every year, but now we could have been top 10!!!

Come see the Red Sox! We were almost 10th in payroll*

*insert convenient excuse about having to salary dumped our best hitter!

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Come see the Red Sox! We were almost 10th in payroll*

*insert convenient excuse about having to salary dumped our best hitter!

"Didn't re-sign Bregman. Decided that he was causing too much commotion behind the scenes on the ipads. Was playing Minecraft and watching Youtube shorts while in the dugout. Actually, he doesn't even like Boston. Thinks pink clam chowder is the best. Bad guy, really." - Sammy first day of ST

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Come see the Red Sox! We were almost 10th in payroll*

*insert convenient excuse about having to salary dumped our best hitter!

Our line-up would have been very nice with Devers at 1B and a healthy Anthony.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

"Didn't re-sign Bregman. Decided that he was causing too much commotion behind the scenes on the ipads. Was playing Minecraft and watching Youtube shorts while in the dugout. Actually, he doesn't even like Boston. Thinks pink clam chowder is the best. Bad guy, really." - Sammy first day of ST

We didnt sign Bregman. Fans dont want to hear this - but I tried very hard!  But we are going to be buyers at the deadline, and we are going to win more games than we otherwise would have, had he signed. But negotations were abruptly cut short when he told me I was an (checks notes) f'ing stiff and he would be willing to take significant less money to just never haven to listen to my punchable face ever again. Aint I great?

- Stiffslow

[drewski6]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Our line-up would have been very nice with Devers at 1B and a healthy Anthony.

Breslows ego took that from you

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Breslows ego took that from you

 

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

 

I don't see it that way, but he wasn't much help in allowing Devers Forevers,

When it comes to this winter, I doubt Brez is given a big budget and doesn't use it. To me, this winter will be all about JH & Co.

[moonslav59]

If we decide to add just one SP'er and it's a free agent, which of these single pitcher would you want?

$75M/4 Giolito or Gallen

$45M/3 Eflin or Civale

$35M/2 Bassitt or M Kelly

[moonslav59]

If the Sox add just one big bat, this winter, via free agency, which player would you hope we sign?

$150M/5 Alonso (31) or Bichette (28)

$125M/5 Bregman (32) 

$110M/4 Schwarber (33)

$70M/3 E Suarez (34)

I know my numbers might be way off, but choose just one

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If the Sox add just one big bat, this winter, via free agency, which player would you hope we sign?

$150M/5 Alonso (31) or Bichette (28)

$125M/5 Bregman (32) 

$110M/4 Schwarber (33)

$70M/3 E Suarez (34)

I know my numbers might be way off, but choose just one

They need at least two, but Bichette is the youngest and has led the AL in hits in his past four full seasons.

Obviously, Bo would have to agree to play 2B or 3B, and we're not even sure he'd be ok at either. We know we're covered at SS.