A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They need at least two, but Bichette is the youngest and has led the AL in hits in his past four full seasons.

Obviously, Bo would have to agree to play 2B or 3B, and we're not even sure he'd be ok at either. We know we're covered at SS.

I think we need more of a power bat, and I think he probably wants to be a SS, at least for a few more years.

I'd take Alonso at the prices I listed, but getting Suarez might allow us to get a second major FA (not on this list.)

[moonslav59]

We might be able to get Suarez and Merrill for around the $45M or so we have to spend and stay below the tax line, assuming that is the budget.

Any subsequent trades would have to be even money, at worst.

Duran's AAV is $8M and Campbell's is $7.5M.

[moonslav59]

Dreaming of dumping....

Yoshida ($37M/2) Hicks ($24M/2) Casas (3 arbs) Crawford (3 arbs) Clarke & Sandlin

Sonny Gray ($40M/1 and $25M AAV) & Willson Contreras ($41M/2 and $17.5M AAV)

We give up about $41M AAV for $43M AAV. Yes, only a dream.

[mvp 78]

That Murakami number is ridiculous. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

That Murakami number is ridiculous. 

Curious on Alonso & Schwarber.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

That Murakami number is ridiculous. 

i don't think Bregman gets anywhere near that either.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i don't think Bregman gets anywhere near that either.

I think he gets Story money: $140M/6 or $120M/5- maybe with inflation: $150M/6 or $130M/5.

(JH will not okay that deal.)

[moonslav59]

No slight intended towards the Jays. They earned their trip to the WS and built a team that was better than I expected, but pretty damn good. I've mentioned how they had 3 SP'ers with 31+ GS. That helps, a lot. Their offense got better was the year went on. Their pen did okay, despite having a questionable closer for most of the season. That being said, they lost 88 games in 2024 and did not make a ton of additions. Looking at 2026, they have more productive players becoming FAs than the Sox do: Bassitt, Bichette, Bieber, Scherzer, Kiner-Falefa, plsu France & Dominguez. A lot will depend on who comes back or who might replace them, but they have a lot of winter questions.

SEA made some bold deadline deals and made a great run at the big prize. Their once great rotation kinda struggled, this year, but they still came very close to making the WS. They may lose 3 huge bats: E Suarez, Naylor & Polanco and a real good pen arm in Munoz. They have some big winter needs, too.

The Yanks will certainly retool, and they should have Cole back, but we know what counting on returning IL pitchers can amount to. They lose a couple big bats: Bellinger & Grisham, plus a bunch of role players like Weaver, Goldschmidt, Williams, Loaisaga, Hill, Rosario, Slater & Yarboro. It will be interesting to see what their winter budget will be.

The Sox lose Bregman and Gio. Refsnyder and Matz had key roles, but not major ones. Wilson, too. Our budget may be our do or die question.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That Murakami number is ridiculous. 

Even if Murakmai only wanted $50M, I'd still take Okamoto.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Even if Murakmai only wanted $50M, I'd still take Okamoto.

When they say $150-200M, is it for 4 years or 10, or what?

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When they say $150-200M, is it for 4 years or 10, or what?

if it's the Dodgers, then it's probably 25-30 years.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When they say $150-200M, is it for 4 years or 10, or what?

Long term deal since he's mid 20's. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Long term deal since he's mid 20's. 

Yes, but $150M/8 to 10 is a lot different than $150M/4 or 5.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, but $150M/8 to 10 is a lot different than $150M/4 or 5.

I still wouldn't want him for 8 years with his risk TBH. His floor is very low due to the k rate (bad Joey Gallo). 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I still wouldn't want him for 8 years with his risk TBH. His floor is very low due to the k rate (bad Joey Gallo). 

I'm not sure he's worth that risk, either.

I think I'm more interested in 29 year old RHB Okamoto, who K's less. He's also viewed as a plus defender at 1B and could be 3B depth, in case Mayer gets hurt.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure he's worth that risk, either.

I think I'm more interested in 29 year old RHB Okamoto, who K's less. He's also viewed as a plus defender at 1B and could be 3B depth, in case Mayer gets hurt.

Okamoto could probably be the starter at 3b if they needed him to be. That's who I've preferred the past few weeks. 

[moonslav59]

Unless we dump Yoshida's salary, I'm not sure looking for a big bat at DH is the best plan. While I'd love to have Schwarber's bat in our line-up, we really need corner infield or 2B more. One could view Alonso as a DH-first player, but he's a RHB. (He may be about as bad as Casas at 1B defense, so one would DH and one would try to play 1B w/o embarrassing themselves.)

RHB Alonso & LHB Schwarber are the two best bats. I doubt we get either one.

RHB Suarez (1B/3B) RHB Okamoto (1B/3B/OF) LHB Murakami (1B/3B) R/LHB Jorge Polanco (2B/DH/ 1B???) RHB Bregman (3B) might be players the Sox could obtain.

Possible trade options: R/LHB K Marte (2B) RHB Isaac Paredes (3B/1B/2B) RHB Christian Walker (1B & salary dump by HOU) RHB Sean Murphy (C/DH/1B???) RHB Willson Contreras (1B/DH/ emergency C)

Next tier FAs: 1B: Hoskins, Naylor, O'Hearn, Bell (Santana/France), 2B: Torres, W Castro, B Lowe, Rengifo, D Moore, SS: Bichette (2B/3B), 3B: Moncada, DH: Ozuna

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Okamoto could probably be the starter at 3b if they needed him to be. That's who I've preferred the past few weeks. 

Yes. I mentioned 1B, because of Mayer, but Mayer can play 2B and with Romy as 2B depth, I'd feel safer that way.

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he gets Story money: $140M/6 or $120M/5- maybe with inflation: $150M/6 or $130M/5.

(JH will not okay that deal.)

Hes going to ask for 200 and settle for 170. Maybe 150-170 but hes 2x'ing his g'teed money and its why he opted out.  Not sure if its here and not sure on years.

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he gets Story money: $140M/6 or $120M/5- maybe with inflation: $150M/6 or $130M/5.

(JH will not okay that deal.)

There has been about 30% contract inflation since story got 23.3 AAV, so that would put it around 31.5 / aav as equiv.

5 yrs at that amount, puts him in the high 150s. I think he does a bit better, but I think this is in the ballpark.

I think the projection is solid 5 yrs at 175-200.  I could see a little lower but not much.  my prediction is 5 yrs/180.

[moonslav59]

How about signing Okamoto (3B/1B), Suarez (1B/3B), Matz and then trade Wong & Hicks for Murphy and Duran for Lodolo? (Kinda RHB heavy)

Is that enough?

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Okamoto 3B

3. L Abreu/ R Refsnyder RF

4. R Suarez 1B

5. L Yoshida DH/ R Murphy DH-C

6. R Story SS

7. R Murphy C/ R Narvaez C

8. L Mayer 2B/ R Romy 2B

9. R Rafaela CF

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford (AAA: Early, Tolle, Dobbins, Harrison, Perales, Uberstine)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Criswell (AAA: Murphy, Sandlin, Wink, Moran, Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell, Mullins, Drohan, Song)

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

There has been about 30% contract inflation since story got 23.3 AAV, so that would put it around 31.5 / aav as equiv.

5 yrs at that amount, puts him in the high 150s. I think he does a bit better, but I think this is in the ballpark.

I think the projection is solid 5 yrs at 175-200.  I could see a little lower but not much.  my prediction is 5 yrs/180.

He's older than Story was, but inflation brings him near "Story money."

His nice start to 2025 helped, but I think the injury and being a year older makes it about even or worse. Apparently DET offered him $170M/6 last winter, so with inflation and being a year older, I'm guessing $170M/6 is tops and probably not likely. Maybe $150-160M/6 or $130-140M/5.

Maybe, he signs for $30M, $30M (opt out after 2) and then $25M. $25M, $20M. That's $130M/5 but with an opt out.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I mentioned 1B, because of Mayer, but Mayer can play 2B and with Romy as 2B depth, I'd feel safer that way.

what about Duran or Abreu at 1B? 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what about Duran or Abreu at 1B? 

If we hold Duran, and thats no small if right now, then we have Duran / Abreu/ RA / Story and none of which are really 2-3-4 hitters. You can prob get by w some kind of combination of Duran/RA at 1-2 or 1,4 but we still need a masher, at least one.

But if you get schwarber, im interested.  He allows you to have less HRs at 1b than most teams by picking up slack with his 50 HRs.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

what about Duran or Abreu at 1B? 

Why would they put a GG RFer at 1B? Duran is one of the fastest players in MLB. Putting him at 1B is certainly a choice. He was moved to the OF for a reason. 

[Duran Is The Man]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If we hold Duran, and thats no small if right now, then we have Duran / Abreu/ RA / Story and none of which are really 2-3-4 hitters. You can prob get by w some kind of combination of Duran/RA at 1-2 or 1,4 but we still need a masher, at least one.

But if you get schwarber, im interested.  He allows you to have less HRs at 1b than most teams by picking up slack with his 50 HRs.

i'd take Schwarbs if we don't get ALonso.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would they put a GG RFer at 1B? Duran is one of the fastest players in MLB. Putting him at 1B is certainly a choice. He was moved to the OF for a reason. 

i know they belong in the OF for those very reasons. but we do have a glut of outfielders and no 1B. again, i know Casas is the 1B but i no longer count on him for anything. but hey...don't listen me, lets go with Toro again.

[Cameron Tran]

I dont get why everyone is writing off Casas already. I know he was really bad in his start last year, but so was Trev. He was starting to slug a bit before getting injured as well. People forget his last healthy season he was an .856 ops hitter. Still only 25. He should have a chance to win the 1b job this spring.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I mentioned 1B, because of Mayer, but Mayer can play 2B and with Romy as 2B depth, I'd feel safer that way.

That can happen at 3b as well.  Especially since the lineup cards are filled out by a platoonaholic…

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

I dont get why everyone is writing off Casas already. I know he was really bad in his start last year, but so was Trev. He was starting to slug a bit before getting injured as well. People forget his last healthy season he was an .856 ops hitter. Still only 25. He should have a chance to win the 1b job this spring.

None of that helps his trade stock right now.

If the Sox get their RHH power bat at 1b, Casas could become the DH.  But right now, we don’t even know when he is coming back.  And given his last two seasons ended with injuries that occurred doing mundane baseball activities plus he’s now arbitration eligible, who knows where he stands.  There are currently articles on this forum about whether or not Crawford and Houck deserve raises through the arbitration process.  How is Casas different? (I actually assume a Casas article is forthcoming.)