A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Toro elects free agency.

[Larry Cook]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB.com lists the top 3B FA options:

1. Bregman

2. E Suarez

3. Moncada

4. Murakami (26 y/0 Homers once every 10 PAs)

5. Okamoto

W Castro, Kiner-Falefa, Rengifo & A Rosario

When Bregman leaves, Mayer is going to be our everyday 3rd baseman for 2026! 

I would like to see story move to 2nd base in 2026! (And if I am being honest, I hope story opts out too!) 
 

the question is are there any free agent or trades available for a quality short stop ( not named rafeala) who can play defense and not strike out excessively!!! 

[notin]

38 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

When Bregman leaves, Mayer is going to be our everyday 3rd baseman for 2026! 

I would like to see story move to 2nd base in 2026! (And if I am being honest, I hope story opts out too!) 
 

the question is are there any free agent or trades available for a quality short stop ( not named rafeala) who can play defense and not strike out excessively!!! 

If Story opts out or moves to 2b, why wouldn’t Mayer play SS?

[Larry Cook]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

If Story opts out or moves to 2b, why wouldn’t Mayer play SS?

I like him at 3rd base more than at short! 

[notin]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

I like him at 3rd base more than at short! 

That doesn’t exclude him from SS.  If Story loves to 2b, Mayer is most likely the SS…

[moonslav59]

I think Mayer would be a plus defender at SS, if he can stay healthy. It's harder and more expensive to get a SS than 3Bman or 2Bman, so it makes sense to have Mayer at SS, if Story moves to 2B or bolts.

Would Brez take a risk on the Japanese basher at 3B, assuming Bregman bolts?

3B Murakami

SS Mayer (Story)

2B Story (Romy)

1B Casas (Romy)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Mayer would be a plus defender at SS, if he can stay healthy. It's harder and more expensive to get a SS than 3Bman or 2Bman, so it makes sense to have Mayer at SS, if Story moves to 2B or bolts.

Would Brez take a risk on the Japanese basher at 3B, assuming Bregman bolts?

3B Murakami

SS Mayer (Story)

2B Story (Romy)

1B Casas (Romy)

Regarding Murakami, I consulted a fellow phantom scribe who wears the number AI on his back, and here's what he informed me (where do AI guys research?): "-48 Defensive Runs Saved at third over the past three seasons... best defensive position is widely considered to be first base or designated hitter"

... did not mention Raffy's name once

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Regarding Murakami, I consulted a fellow phantom scribe who wears the number AI on his back, and here's what he informed me (where do AI guys research?): "-48 Defensive Runs Saved at third over the past three seasons... best defensive position is widely considered to be first base or designated hitter"

... did not mention Raffy's name once

We do need a 1Bman, too.

[oldtimer]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Mayer would be a plus defender at SS, if he can stay healthy. It's harder and more expensive to get a SS than 3Bman or 2Bman, so it makes sense to have Mayer at SS, if Story moves to 2B or bolts.

Would Brez take a risk on the Japanese basher at 3B, assuming Bregman bolts?

3B Murakami

SS Mayer (Story)

2B Story (Romy)

1B Casas (Romy)

Right now, the Sox have two dependable infield players. Bregman and Story. Mayer could be but has a poor injury history. Casas has the same problem. Beyond them, possibly Rafaela could make the move to the infield in a similar way that Betts has. We have a surplus of outfield talent, even if Duran is traded, so moving Rafaela to the infield should be con sidered. I would target a FA for 1st base, even though Casas is there and has almost no trade value. I would favor an infield of Bregman,, Story, Rafaela and FA. We have secondary players who can fill in for injury and rest intervals.

[Hugh2]

It’s amazing how free agency has evolved over even just the past 6-7 years.  It’s not what it once was, it’s weak and lacks depth.  Sure, there’s always a few guys at the top and sometimes that guy is an elite level player destined for record $$$ but aside from a few stars or two free agency sucks.  The vast majority of GOOD players are often in decline.

 

in suppose the reason for this is obvious, but scouting certainly seems more important now than ever

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It’s amazing how free agency has evolved over even just the past 6-7 years.  It’s not what it once was, it’s weak and lacks depth.  Sure, there’s always a few guys at the top and sometimes that guy is an elite level player destined for record $$$ but aside from a few stars or two free agency sucks.  The vast majority of GOOD players are often in decline.

 

in suppose the reason for this is obvious, but scouting certainly seems more important now than ever

Agreed, and less and less bidding wars. The money is so good, in many cases it's really about where the player wants to live and work now.

Except for clients of Boras, who's trying to squeeze every last copper cent from teams -- then it's wait until every GM is totally exhausted... but we're seeing that backfire more and more, as clubs have other needs to fill and can't be setting aside kajillions until Spring Training for one luxury item to add.

[Hugh2]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Agreed, and less and less bidding wars. The money is so good, in many cases it's really about where the player wants to live and work now.

Except for clients of Boras, who's trying to squeeze every last copper cent from teams -- then it's wait until every GM is totally exhausted... but we're seeing that backfire more and more, as clubs have other needs to fill and can't be setting aside kajillions until Spring Training for one luxury item to add.

Actually I think there’s less and less bidding wars because there are less premium free agents.  I also don’t think the bidding wars for a relief pitcher gets the same press coverage that Juan Soto gets; that’s not to say that his bidding wars wasn’t intense.

I think it’s about teams locking guys up, more and more you’re seeing teams come in and extend guys before they reach free agency.  You give them some more money up front and save in the future and don’t worry about paying them into their mid 30’s or beyond

[Hugh2]

Red Sox have caught on to this trend in recent years too: Rafaela, Bello, Campbell, Anthony, Whitlock, Crochet.  
 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Agreed, and less and less bidding wars. The money is so good, in many cases it's really about where the player wants to live and work now.

Except for clients of Boras, who's trying to squeeze every last copper cent from teams -- then it's wait until every GM is totally exhausted... but we're seeing that backfire more and more, as clubs have other needs to fill and can't be setting aside kajillions until Spring Training for one luxury item to add.

I believe the Union pressures players to take the most money in many cases.

But sometimes players choose among the lucrative offers.  Like Trea Turner comically telling San Diego to stop bidding because he (well, his wife) wanted to return to Philadelphia, but the union wanted Trea to just take the biggest offer…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Red Sox have caught on to this trend in recent years too: Rafaela, Bello, Campbell, Anthony, Whitlock, Crochet.  
 

 

And thank God.

The notion of building a team by constantly paying heavily for players in their 30s is beyond unsustainable…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Right now, the Sox have two dependable infield players. Bregman and Story. Mayer could be but has a poor injury history. Casas has the same problem. Beyond them, possibly Rafaela could make the move to the infield in a similar way that Betts has. We have a surplus of outfield talent, even if Duran is traded, so moving Rafaela to the infield should be con sidered. I would target a FA for 1st base, even though Casas is there and has almost no trade value. I would favor an infield of Bregman,, Story, Rafaela and FA. We have secondary players who can fill in for injury and rest intervals.

Story has as bad an injury history as Mayer and Casas.

Games played since 2023:

242 Mayer (playing in shorter season minor leagues)

226 Story

224 Casas

Rafaela is not a plus defender as an infielder, and his defense is why he plays full time. This is the reason we trade an OF'er, even if it's Ceddanne, since his value as a CF'er on another team is worth way more than a 2Bman for us. Maybe, over time, he could become a plus infielder, but why even attempt it?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Red Sox have caught on to this trend in recent years too: Rafaela, Bello, Campbell, Anthony, Whitlock, Crochet.  

I think this is one major reason their extended outlook is so encouraging.

I wish they would end the "other trend." Can you work out what it is?

2020: Martin Perez

2021: Garrett Richards

2022: James Paxton

2023: Corey Kluber

2024: Liam Hendriks

2025: Patrick Sandoval

6 straight winters.

Most were injury prone.

Most were once decent to excellent pitchers. (Perez was the year after he left us.)

But one thing they all have in common, besides giving us very little value, is what?

Answer:

Essentially, all signed one year deals with an option year. (Hendriks & Sandoval had a two year deals but were known to be missing year one, plus an option year for LH, and Perez was re-sign after 2020 with one more option year added, but refused.)

So...

Refused Perez option for 2021, but repeated the same 1+1 contract.

Refused the Richards option

Gave Paxton his 2nd year option, but refused third year.

Refused the Kluber option

Hendriks will not get his option year accepted, IMO

Sandoval was like the Hendriks deal- really a 2 year deal with one year of service expected.

I think these guys cost over $70M, combined.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And thank God.

The notion of building a team by constantly paying heavily for players in their 30s is beyond unsustainable…

This is one area that raises the questions about Bloom choosing to spend very little or being told he couldn't spend more than X amount.

The Rays used to extend many of their young talent very early and for long deals. Their most recent one became a train wreck, but I have to think Bloom would have wanted to extend guys like Devers, Houck, Crawford and maybe Dalbec (good thing he didnt) or Casas or even Beni, who he traded, instead. I think the only guy he extended was Barnes.  and Kike for one more year.)

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Right now, the Sox have two dependable infield players. Bregman and Story. Mayer could be but has a poor injury history. Casas has the same problem. Beyond them, possibly Rafaela could make the move to the infield in a similar way that Betts has. We have a surplus of outfield talent, even if Duran is traded, so moving Rafaela to the infield should be con sidered. I would target a FA for 1st base, even though Casas is there and has almost no trade value. I would favor an infield of Bregman,, Story, Rafaela and FA. We have secondary players who can fill in for injury and rest intervals.

Story has as bad an injury history as Mayer and Casas.

Rafaela is not a plus defender as an infielder, and his defense is why he plays full time.

[moonslav59]

I could see the Sox attempt to reset the tax year, despite being at the peak of their "open window," and do this over the winter:

Sign Rhys Hoskins and Merrill Kelly. Trade Duran, Hicks (to help balance the salary,) Clarke and Holobetz (add DHam, if they want him.) for K Marte. That's it, besides a few minor depth signings.

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Hoskins 1B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida/ R Romy DH

7. L Mayer 3B

8. R Rafaela CF

9. R Narvaez C

Bench: Wong, Romy or Yoshida, Jh Garcia, DHam or Sogard

SP: Crochet, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Tolle, Fitts, Bernardino, Criswell

_____________________________________

AAA: Campbell, Casas, Romero, Hickey, Grissom, Castro, Eaton, Rosario, Sykes

SP AAA: Dobbins/Early/Harrison/Perales/Uberstine/Drohan

RP AAA: Murphy, Winckowski, Sandlin, Moran, Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell, Mullins, Song, Hoppe

Is this good enough?

With Bregman, maybe, but I'm not sure we can stay under the tax line with him aboard.

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think this is one major reason their extended outlook is so encouraging.

I wish they would end the "other trend." Can you work out what it is?

2020: Martin Perez

2021: Garrett Richards

2022: James Paxton

2023: Corey Kluber

2024: Liam Hendriks

2025: Patrick Sandoval

6 straight winters.

Most were injury prone.

Most were once decent to excellent pitchers. (Perez was the year after he left us.)

But one thing they all have in common, besides giving us very little value, is what?

Answer:

Essentially, all signed one year deals with an option year. (Hendriks & Sandoval had a two year deals but were known to be missing year one, plus an option year for LH, and Perez was re-sign after 2020 with one more option year added, but refused.)

So...

Refused Perez option for 2021, but repeated the same 1+1 contract.

Refused the Richards option

Gave Paxton his 2nd year option, but refused third year.

Refused the Kluber option

Hendriks will not get his option year accepted, IMO

Sandoval was like the Hendriks deal- really a 2 year deal with one year of service expected.

I think these guys cost over $70M, combined.

It's very easy to cherry pick a lot of short term contracts and neglect ones that have worked out great like Arodlis Chapman. 

I actually and am a big advocate of the rehab contract or the short term contact.  As you even said with Perez, he'd be on a completely different list if they signed him a year later. 

One of my biggest stances last year was signing someone like Shane Bieber for that very reason.  That would have worked out pretty great for us as he was good down the stretch. 

Those contracts aren't the problem.  They stand out when the team doesn't make other moves and the team results are terrible.  That's why they got so much critisizm.  

If the Sox signed a few studs and won a 100 games in 2023 nobody would really care that Kluber sucked, and he wouldn't even have sucked that much because he would have been cut much sooner.  

[notin]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think this is one major reason their extended outlook is so encouraging.

I wish they would end the "other trend." Can you work out what it is?

2020: Martin Perez

2021: Garrett Richards

2022: James Paxton

2023: Corey Kluber

2024: Liam Hendriks

2025: Patrick Sandoval

6 straight winters.

Most were injury prone.

Most were once decent to excellent pitchers. (Perez was the year after he left us.)

But one thing they all have in common, besides giving us very little value, is what?

Answer:

Essentially, all signed one year deals with an option year. (Hendriks & Sandoval had a two year deals but were known to be missing year one, plus an option year for LH, and Perez was re-sign after 2020 with one more option year added, but refused.)

So...

Refused Perez option for 2021, but repeated the same 1+1 contract.

Refused the Richards option

Gave Paxton his 2nd year option, but refused third year.

Refused the Kluber option

Hendriks will not get his option year accepted, IMO

Sandoval was like the Hendriks deal- really a 2 year deal with one year of service expected.

I think these guys cost over $70M, combined.

There is a big difference between signing a player to a one year contract (with or without an option) and signing a player to a two year contract knowing they miss the first season.

One year deals like the ones to Richard, Perez and Kluber are very common.  Teams are not going to stop that because if it doesn’t work out, no need to worry about it in the future.

Deals like the ones for Sandoval and Hendriks are often for much better pitchers.  The only real risk these carry is the AAV is over two years even though the player only pitches for one.

Neither of these deals are going away any time soon.  Might as well say “stop signing guys that don’t work out.”  Sure the total cost is substantial, but also it’s over 6 seasons. Not like the other option was one $70mill free agent.   In fact, what is the other option? MiLB free agency?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Hoskins 1B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida/ R Romy DH

7. L Mayer 3B

8. R Rafaela CF

9. R Narvaez C

Is this good enough?

With Bregman, maybe

I appreciate the idea of upgrading with Marte, but did a double-take at the heart of this order -- because it looks so much worse without Bregman. He really is the key to the offseason.

And that's assuming Abreu and Story will each have entire healthy seasons, produce and not regress. I know Hoskins is a favorite Lowe-budget kind of choice for 1B, but acquiring a guy with 12 HRs, 43 RBI and a .748 OPS to bat third won't strike fear in the eyes of opponents...

(...but it will in mine, since Rhys' career 25% K-rate will make for even more whiffing, followed by Abreu and Story). 

Maybe just a few adjustments will help: bat Marte, coming off a .376 OBP year, leadoff, Anthony 2, Bregman 3, and if we can't find a legit 40 homer guy for clean-up, go with a .300 hitter with 25 dingers like Yandy. Then we could get away with Story 5, and a contact man like Yoshida 6.

I also still like Ceddanne 9th as a second leadoff with his speed on the bases.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, notin said:

There is a big difference between signing a player to a one year contract (with or without an option) and signing a player to a two year contract knowing they miss the first season.

One year deals like the ones to Richard, Perez and Kluber are very common.  Teams are not going to stop that because if it doesn’t work out, no need to worry about it in the future.

Deals like the ones for Sandoval and Hendriks are often for much better pitchers.  The only real risk these carry is the AAV is over two years even though the player only pitches for one.

Neither of these deals are going away any time soon.  Might as well say “stop signing guys that don’t work out.”  Sure the total cost is substantial, but also it’s over 6 seasons. Not like the other option was one $70mill free agent.   In fact, what is the other option? MiLB free agency?

There are differences between the tow types, and Hendriks was the only RP I selected, so I could make it consecutive years.

I did skip over Wacha and Hill, but neither had an option year offered. I skipped Buehler, too.

I do think it's fair to say this strategy has not worked well for the Sox. Maybe Sandoval breaks the trend.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I appreciate the idea of upgrading with Marte, but did a double-take at the heart of this order -- because it looks so much worse without Bregman. He really is the key to the offseason.

And that's assuming Abreu and Story will each have entire healthy seasons, produce and not regress. I know Hoskins is a favorite Lowe-budget kind of choice for 1B, but acquiring a guy with 12 HRs, 43 RBI and a .748 OPS to bat third won't strike fear in the eyes of opponents...

(...but it will in mine, since Rhys' career 25% K-rate will make for even more whiffing, followed by Abreu and Story). 

Maybe just a few adjustments will help: bat Marte, coming off a .376 OBP year, leadoff, Anthony 2, Bregman 3, and if we can't find a legit 40 homer guy for clean-up, go with a .300 hitter with 25 dingers like Yandy. Then we could get away with Story 5, and a contact man like Yoshida 6.

I also still like Ceddanne 9th as a second leadoff with his speed on the bases.

Bregman would put us way over the tax line, but the line-up would be greatly improved:

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. S Marte 2B

4. R Hoskins 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy/Yoshida, Jh Garcia, Mayer

 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 10/4/2025 at 2:00 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

Abreu  .247   Duran .256   Rafaela  .249   regular season stats.  hardly a small sample. Then the post season fiasco. I stand by my position.

Randy, excellent point but you have to partially blame Cora for his mismanagement of the outfield.  I've posted that defensively Duran is best in CF and the demands of RF call for an outstanding fielder like Rafaela who has a big arm and of course the franchise player like in the past needs to reside in LF.  Abreu is a pretender.  He leads the outfield in errors over the last two years and can't hit lefties so trade him before his shortcomings become more obvious.  Next, fire Cora and get a manager who understands why prototypical batting orders existed for 100 years.  Mr. Mix and Match (Cora) created some of the shortcomings of Duran and Rafaela while his special treatment of Anthony significantly helped him develop in his rookie season.  Smart line-ups would raise runs scored and team batting average.  The outfield without Abreu should be outstanding in 2026.  The catchers suck.  Casas needs to return to form so Lowe can be a left handed hitter off the bench as well as the reserve CI.  Mayer's defense was good during his incredibly short sample in 2025.  It contradicted his weak defense in the minors so we need to see if he can stay healthy and not make errors like he did in the minors.  Campbell just needs a new manager to be the all-star he should be based on his talent.  If Story gets hurt Campbell should get to play his primary position of shortstop.  That or they should trade him to get a right-handed stud young starting pitcher.  Trade Abreu and Campbell as the key pieces in adding a RH starter.

Next year, if Tolle and Early progress as they should, this team should win the division unless Cora is back.  Then they will make a wild card spot at best.

[Hugh2]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman would put us way over the tax line, but the line-up would be greatly improved:

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. S Marte 2B

4. R Hoskins 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy/Yoshida, Jh Garcia, Mayer

 

I doubt they plan on having Mayer on the bench.  I think if Bregman is resigned it negates the need to trade for Marte. If that's the case, you're trading one of the outfielders for a #2.  That comes without saying in the absence of a Bregman resigning I'd totally bite on a Marte for Duran deal. 

1B is funky.  I want to believe in Casas, and I do, I think if he can come back and stay on the field he's eventually going to hit consistently (career .800 ops despite his struggles).  I think he would have last year, as he got off to a slow start and then just got injured. He has 4 years of team control left and he has the potential to be the middle of the order bat they need without going out and spending $40 million or emptying the farm YET how long can we wait around for this kid? This was two years in a row he couldn't stay on the field, maybe it's a fluke...maybe it's not. 

I think the Sox could eliminate this problem if they were to find a way to get rid of Yoshida.  If you do that you can then get a guy like Hoskins like you suggested and if Casas stays healthy and hits then you got your DH. Actually the more I think about that the more I like it.  Doesn't have to be Hoskins, I would love for them to go big and get Alonso but I'm not going to get my hopes up this offseason. 

[Tedballgame]

23 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Right now, the Sox have two dependable infield players. Bregman and Story. Mayer could be but has a poor injury history. Casas has the same problem. Beyond them, possibly Rafaela could make the move to the infield in a similar way that Betts has. We have a surplus of outfield talent, even if Duran is traded, so moving Rafaela to the infield should be con sidered. I would target a FA for 1st base, even though Casas is there and has almost no trade value. I would favor an infield of Bregman,, Story, Rafaela and FA. We have secondary players who can fill in for injury and rest intervals.

You do not move a gold glove centerfielder to the infield 

[Tedballgame]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I could see the Sox attempt to reset the tax year, despite being at the peak of their "open window," and do this over the winter:

Sign Rhys Hoskins and Merrill Kelly. Trade Duran, Hicks (to help balance the salary,) Clarke and Holobetz (add DHam, if they want him.) for K Marte. That's it, besides a few minor depth signings.

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Hoskins 1B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida/ R Romy DH

7. L Mayer 3B

8. R Rafaela CF

9. R Narvaez C

Bench: Wong, Romy or Yoshida, Jh Garcia, DHam or Sogard

SP: Crochet, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Tolle, Fitts, Bernardino, Criswell

_____________________________________

AAA: Campbell, Casas, Romero, Hickey, Grissom, Castro, Eaton, Rosario, Sykes

SP AAA: Dobbins/Early/Harrison/Perales/Uberstine/Drohan

RP AAA: Murphy, Winckowski, Sandlin, Moran, Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell, Mullins, Song, Hoppe

Is this good enough?

With Bregman, maybe, but I'm not sure we can stay under the tax line with him aboard.

 

 

 

I think Early is in rotation in April

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

You do not move a gold glove centerfielder to the infield 

Rafaela should never play anywhere but out in the grass for the rest of his career.