A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

That k rate in the MIF is unsustainable. 

I think they can sustain it…

[mvp 78]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not so sure. Tracy and his masters have gone with the hot hands until they cool off.

Remember how they used Gasper, who became the psuedo starting catcher hitting in the top four of the batting order for a spell, but when he fell was immediately demoted.

542 OPS his last 25 G

406 OPS his last 15 G

They held on about a week too long IMO. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

542 OPS his last 25 G

406 OPS his last 15 G

They held on about a week too long IMO. 

After like 5-6 games, he was toast. It just takes a while to realize it and move on.

[moonslav59]

On IP limits...

Early is 24 years old and can see an increase in IP, but by how much? I'm not sure viewing his recent IL stint as a hint that he can pitch more when he returns. He had 103 IP in 2024 and 101 in 2025- both in the minors. I think expecting 150 this year. He was leading the team in IP before the IL stint and is at 92, now. Assuming he comes back, I'm thinking 40 more IP (8 GS?)

Suarez should not be on an IP limit, and he just came off the IL, but he's never exceeded 158 IP and is at 91, now. He should be okay for 6 IP x 10-11 starts.

Tolle is at 90 IP in MLB but also 15 in AAA, so he's at 105. That's more than anyone else on the current staff. He's 23 and had 92 IP, last season. 150 IP is pushing it. 130 might be, too. If we make the playoffs, who can pitch?

Bennett has missed serious time with a major injury, He's 25. He once pitched 117 innings at Oklahoma. He hasn't pitched 76 IP since- in all pro ball. He's at 93 now and even pitched Fall ball last year. What's his limit? 120? 130?

Gray should not have limits, and since he is a FA after 2026, I doubt the Sox are concerned about overuse all that much. He's on pace for about 180, which he's done several times, including last year.

Sandoval and Rivera are huge question marks. The returns by Crochet, Houck, Crawford & Oviedo are highly skeptical.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

After like 5-6 games, he was toast. It just takes a while to realize it and move on.

His defense behind the plate was trash too. 

[moonslav59]

That 1988 season with Morgan Magic was amazing: 12 straight wins- a 9-8 loss then 7 more wins in a row. That was 19-1. We went from 3rd place to a tie for first. We lost 4 in a row and 7 of the next 9 to fall into 2nd, where we stayed until Sept 4th, when we went 11-3 to take over first and keep it, despite losing 6 of the last 7 games of the year.

In 2004, we won 9 of 10 in April and then had a great stretch winning 6, losing one then winning 10 (16-1) They also won 4 in a row after one more loss for a 20-2 stretch. We won 7 of 8 near the end of the year. Those epic playoffs saw us win 3, lose 3 then win 8 straight (11-3.)

They won 12 of 13 in 2005. We won 8 in a row later, lost 2 then won 6 in a row (14-2)

In 2006, the Sox won 12 and 14 of 15. 2007 saw not great stretches. Like 2004, we won 4 straight in the playoffs, lost 3 then won 7 straight for the ring. (11-3)

2008 saw a 10-1 streak. 2009 had the 11 game April streak.

12 of 13 in 2011 and 14-2. Later they went 10-1 and 13-2. (17-3) That was the year we ended the year 7-20 in September. 2012 was even worse by going 7 and 26 to end the season.

We started 2013 going 20-8 and had a 9-1 stretch later on. (We went 11-5 in the playoffs.)

In 2018, after losing the opening day game 6-4, we went 17-1. Later, we won 10 straight and 13 of 14. Even later we went 15-2. (11-3 in the playoffs, including a 6 game streak)

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His defense behind the plate was trash too. 

That was easy to see day one.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He had 103 IP in 2024 and 101 in 2025- both in the minors.

119.2 in 2025, including the RS.  Using the usual +30 formula, and ignoring the injury, we theoretically have 58 IPs left.  Good for at least 10 starts, and we are unlikely to see him until August.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

119.2 in 2025, including the RS.  Using the usual +30 formula, and ignoring the injury, we theoretically have 58 IPs left.  Good for at least 10 starts, and we are unlikely to see him until August.

Okay, I forgot the MLB IP for 2025, but I don't see time off for a 2026 injury as a reason to think thye +30 formula applies. He may also have some rehab IP before returning.

He may not even be activated in time for 10 starts.

Another question might be, if he does go 10 starts for 50-55 innings, how many can he gives us in the playoffs?

[moonslav59]

Last year, we had about 13 SP'ers on our depth chart and ended up trading for Dustin May and needing pen games in September.

I think we should plan on adding a pitcher.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

His defense behind the plate was trash too. 

 But his stache was not…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Last year, we had about 13 SP'ers on our depth chart and ended up trading for Dustin May and needing pen games in September.

I think we should plan on adding a pitcher.

Adding it to my planner…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Adding it to my planner…

I actually think 12-13 is better than most teams have, but it's what we've needed recently.

Nobody thought of Newcomb, two decembers ago and he ended up making the April rotation. SWe heard enough about trading #8 to #11 Priester.

This year the all healthy depth chart might have been:

1. Crochet

2. Suarez

3. Gray

4. Houck (known to be out for over half 2026)

5. Bello

6. Crawford (known to be out for over a month to start 2026)

7. Sandoval (same as Crawford)

8. Oviedo (soxprospects had him as our #5 for much of the winter)

9. Early

10. Tolle

11. Bennett

12. Uberstine/Sikkema/Anderson

??? Rivera

[notin]

So the Angels will listen on Neto after all.

Mayer, Eyanson and Cespedes?

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

So the Angels will listen on Neto after all.

Mayer, Eyanson and Cespedes?

I'm super high on Eyanson, and I'd say yes. I'd even add Phillips or Holobetz

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, notin said:

 But his stache was not…

I noticed some of the humorists on SoSH had a running joke about his mustache and Tolle's mustache, with references to young Joseph Stalin.

[notin]

53 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I noticed some of the humorists on SoSH had a running joke about his mustache and Tolle's mustache, with references to young Joseph Stalin.

Stalin?  How old are they?  I was thinking Freddie Mercury and I thought I was outdated.  Is Ron Burgundy the new standard?

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, notin said:

So the Angels will listen on Neto after all.

Mayer, Eyanson and Cespedes?

Yes.  There are holes in Neto's game, but that's pretty value.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yes.  There are holes in Neto's game, but that's pretty value.

We need a SS, and this might force Story to 2B for an added plus.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Neto needn't stay at short.

When Arias arrives sometime in the next year, it's not too hard to envision a shift of Neto to 2B or 3B (with Durbin to 2B). 

I have no evidence Neto can play all over the infield in the pros, like he did in college. But I'm told by posters every draft season that young shortstops are the most versatile of ballplayers from growing up as the best player available.

[Hugh2]

Francisco Lindor would be the perfect double play partner for Franklin Arias in 2027. 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, notin said:

So the Angels will listen on Neto after all.

Mayer, Eyanson and Cespedes?

Not with Eyanson in there. 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I noticed some of the humorists on SoSH had a running joke about his mustache and Tolle's mustache, with references to young Joseph Stalin.

Hmmm, could he make Duran and Story disappear? 

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, notin said:

Stalin?  How old are they?  I was thinking Freddie Mercury and I thought I was outdated.  Is Ron Burgundy the new standard?

Freddie Mercury works too.

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, notin said:

So the Angels will listen on Neto after all.

Mayer, Eyanson and Cespedes?

Just for fun, much conjecture, and piggy-backing on the Lindor thread, our two choices might look like:

Lindor-Assuming the NYM kick in $70M, then my estimate is that we get 18 bWAR from Lindor for $100M.  Mayer is a constant in both trades, so in this scenario, we also throw in Philips.

Neto-We get 15 bWAR for maybe $65M, but requires us throwing in Eyanson.

Assuming both are acceptable clubhouse presences, this feels fairly even.  I would do either one if these are the correct parameters.

[moonslav59]

Neto is second in DRS since 2025, but weirdly he is -15 in OAA (#20 out of 22 qualifiers.)

[UtahSox]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Last year, we had about 13 SP'ers on our depth chart and ended up trading for Dustin May and needing pen games in September.

I think we should plan on adding a pitcher.

Agree assuming we make a splash w/ bat….. go get one more vet Gausman, Ray, Bieber etc see what happens. 

[UtahSox]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We need a SS, and this might force Story to 2B for an added plus.

I’ve watched Neto quite a bit, guy is great athlete, and I think if we made a trade for Eyanson, Mayer and a couple lotto prospects we would be very happy. He just seems like a dude who would kill it in Boston. 

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Just for fun, much conjecture, and piggy-backing on the Lindor thread, our two choices might look like:

Lindor-Assuming the NYM kick in $70M, then my estimate is that we get 18 bWAR from Lindor for $100M.  Mayer is a constant in both trades, so in this scenario, we also throw in Philips.

Neto-We get 15 bWAR for maybe $65M, but requires us throwing in Eyanson.

Assuming both are acceptable clubhouse presences, this feels fairly even.  I would do either one if these are the correct parameters.

Fair assessment Neto only 24. I’d lean Neto and giving up Eyanson for the upside. But I think Lindor deal is possible if nothing but for tax relief for Mets. 50m is # I project and it will take a “winning” prospect to satiate the NY media. 

[UtahSox]

Big trade idea

Rs Get: Adell 1.4 yrs left, Soriano 2.4 yrs left, Neto 3.4 yrs left 

LAA Get: Arias, Mayer, Valera or Witherspoon (whomever we aren’t as bullish on)