A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

And Bennett making up for Campbell???

And Contreras for no Alonso.

Durbin for no Bregman.

Gray and Suarez for no Houck, Oviedo and Crawford.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox become buyers, I'm hoping MIN will trade Jeffers and PIT will trade BLowe.

I'm not sure what they will cost, but it shouldn't be Early, Arias or Eyanson.

[drewski6]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If the Sox become buyers, I'm hoping MIN will trade Jeffers and PIT will trade BLowe.

I'm not sure what they will cost, but it shouldn't be Early, Arias or Eyanson.

I say go big, but target a guy who will be here beyond this year.  A superstar and overpay if you have to.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I say go big, but target a guy who will be here beyond this year.  A superstar and overpay if you have to.

This is my general thought as well. I'm not in buy mode yet, but I'm so much closer to it than I ever thought I would be a month ago. 

The one thing I think we all don't want to see is this hug the line bull poop.  

At least if you get a guy with multiple years of control you can address a long term need they'd you'd look at in the offseason anyways.  Sure it's going to cost you more, but it would have cost you more in the offseason anyways and you're getting more. 

I want a premium player with 2.5+ years of control. 

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

This is my general thought as well. I'm not in buy mode yet, but I'm so much closer to it than I ever thought I would be a month ago. 

The one thing I think we all don't want to see is this hug the line bull poop.  

At least if you get a guy with multiple years of control you can address a long term need they'd you'd look at in the offseason anyways.  Sure it's going to cost you more, but it would have cost you more in the offseason anyways and you're getting more. 

I want a premium player with 2.5+ years of control. 

Exactamundo.  Especially if he swings a biiiiig thumping bat.  Its impossible to overpay for Jordan Walker.

[Hugh2]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-farm-system-midseason-talent-rankings-for-july-2026/

 

BA mid season rankings places the Sox farm system at #9

considering what they have gradauted the last two years this is pretty good. 

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

And Contreras for no Alonso.

Durbin for no Bregman.

Gray and Suarez for no Houck, Oviedo and Crawford.

This is my typical apropos of nothing, but according to B-R:

• We have 17.9 bWAR on offense, of which, 7.9 comes from newbies.
• We have 8.1 bWAR, on pitching, of which, 5.1 comes from newbies.

That's exactly 50%.

[JoeBrady]

27 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I want a premium player with 2.5+ years of control. 

We don't have the farm for a 2.5+ premium player, unless the other team is moving salary.  The guy you are describing might be Abrams, and even if he were to be traded, it would cost Arias, Witherspoon+.  How many teams even trade premium players with 2.5+?

If this was a 1st place team, I'd feel differently.  But we are aiming at a WC, with three on the road, with no certainty of having Crochet back.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, notin said:

 

I wonder how Boston has such a huge batting WAR lead over Philly…

Fielding metrics being overstated in how WAR is counted.

[JoeBrady]

33 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Exactamundo.  Especially if he swings a biiiiig thumping bat.  Its impossible to overpay for Jordan Walker.

Walker is a ghost.  He's not being traded.

ed:  I looked at the top-30 FG players by wOBA, and the only player that might be on the block is Greene.  I doubt that Detroit would trade him, and they already have McGonigle at SS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's imprudent to expect the Red Sox offense as is to contend the rest of the season. 

Add a couple big league bats asap, and don't ask "where would we put them?"  How about in two of the top five slots in the batting order.

Why is it worth it NOW to trade prospects who may or may not be good in the future? Say what you want about this club's chances, but don't forget in the recent surge they swept both New York teams -- clubs that never sell and always go for it.

[UtahSox]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Exactamundo.  Especially if he swings a biiiiig thumping bat.  It’s impossible to overpay for Jordan Walker.

The idea of opposing teams staring down the barrel of Crochet, Gray, Suarez. In a best of 3 series. With Bennett, Sandoval, (maybe Early) and Tolle in relief inning eating roles, warms my heart. That is what I liked about the roster before the season started. I think we can do some serious damage in October, but we need a couple of things offensively. 
 1. Get Anthony back playing like he did last year (OPS .850+) OR get a star player w/ a minimum of control through 2028

2. Make a trade for an everyday player or DH with .720+ OPS (Paredes, Maikel Garcia, Adell, Helios Ramos, Jeffers) or Roman plays this role and we add a #1. 

Look at our record outside of Fenway this team would have as good of a chance at playing in WS as any AL team. 

[UtahSox]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We don't have the farm for a 2.5+ premium player, unless the other team is moving salary.  The guy you are describing might be Abrams, and even if he were to be traded, it would cost Arias, Witherspoon+.  How many teams even trade premium players with 2.5+?

If this was a 1st place team, I'd feel differently.  But we are aiming at a WC, with three on the road, with no certainty of having Crochet back.

That’s talking out of both sides of your mouth. “We don’t have the farm” then “well we do, I just want good players with team control without giving up anyone who could be good in next 3 years” scared money don’t make money. Roll the dice or perpetually wait for the next set of prospects who are going to take us to the promised land. Remember how RS fans talked about Mayer & Campbell 18 months ago. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I say go big, but target a guy who will be here beyond this year.  A superstar and overpay if you have to.

The "overpay" at deadlines is absurd. We see how GMs get roasted for winer "overpays" like Harrison, Drohan & DHam for Durbin, Seigler & Monasterio. (That was not meant as an overpay, as winter deals are designed to be "even." although prospects for controlled stars can be viewed as overpays. This trade was not that, as Durbin was not a star.)

My point is that usually the winter is time to make deals for controllable players and the deadline is mostly rentals, overpaid players or 1.5 year guys  who make decent money (like Chapman.)

This is another reason I'm still leaning sell. We can and should get more value for Gray and maybe Chapman than they are worth- just not likely immediate 2026 value.

[notin]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

The idea of opposing teams staring down the barrel of Crochet, Gray, Suarez. In a best of 3 series. With Bennett, Sandoval, (maybe Early) and Tolle in relief inning eating roles, warms my heart. That is what I liked about the roster before the season started. I think we can do some serious damage in October, but we need a couple of things offensively. 
 1. Get Anthony back playing like he did last year (OPS .850+) OR get a star player w/ a minimum of control through 2028

2. Make a trade for an everyday player or DH with .720+ OPS (Paredes, Maikel Garcia, Adell, Helios Ramos, Jeffers) or Roman plays this role and we add a #1. 

Look at our record outside of Fenway this team would have as good of a chance at playing in WS as any AL team. 

Why not a left fielder?

Yoshida and Romy can platoon at DH until Roman returns.  But get Duran out of the lineup (and possibly out of Boston) and get a decent hitter into LF.

Live the ideas of Jeffers or Langeliers behind the plate.  Langeliers might require Arias.

Not Adell.  He is still well below the extremely casual requirement of a .720 OPS…

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The "overpay" at deadlines is absurd. We see how GMs get roasted for winer "overpays" like Harrison, Drohan & DHam for Durbin, Seigler & Monasterio. (That was not meant as an overpay, as winter deals are designed to be "even." although prospects for controlled stars can be viewed as overpays. This trade was not that, as Durbin was not a star.)

My point is that usually the winter is time to make deals for controllable players and the deadline is mostly rentals, overpaid players or 1.5 year guys  who make decent money (like Chapman.)

This is another reason I'm still leaning sell. We can and should get more value for Gray and maybe Chapman than they are worth- just not likely immediate 2026 value.

i'm ok with dealing Chappie if we keep Whitlock. and i still think they should try to extend Gray for 2-3 more years. clearly Crochet is of no use and a ticking time bomb for TJS. i wouldn't count on him to pitch even next year. Gray has been steady, averaging 160+ IP/year for the last 11 years and projects to at least that much this year.

i would add that should he not be agreeable to a reasonable extension, they yeah...trade him for the prospects that never materialize.

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

We don't have the farm for a 2.5+ premium player, unless the other team is moving salary.  The guy you are describing might be Abrams, and even if he were to be traded, it would cost Arias, Witherspoon+.  How many teams even trade premium players with 2.5+?

If this was a 1st place team, I'd feel differently.  But we are aiming at a WC, with three on the road, with no certainty of having Crochet back.

“Three on the road” plays into their strengths…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-farm-system-midseason-talent-rankings-for-july-2026/

 

BA mid season rankings places the Sox farm system at #9

considering what they have gradauted the last two years this is pretty good. 

It's actually a stunning feat. Yes, for the reason you gave, but also for all the prospect trades Brez has made. While some, like Perales for Bennett, were prospect for prospect, many others were not. Some were pitchers for everyday players, meant to balance the roster- like the Contreras and Durbin trades, but some were also for pitching like the Gray and Oviedo trades.

Here is a partial list of the farm graduations and trade-aways:

Graduated:

2026: Tolle, Early, Watson & Samaniego

2025: Anthony, Mayer, Narvaez & Campbell

2024: Rafaela, Abreu, Slaten & Sogard

Prospects Traded & Ranking at time of Trade:

2025-2026 Winter:

4 Jh Garcia & 20 Travieso (Oviedo & Samaniego)

8 Clarke (with Fitts for Gray)

10 Fajardo (with Dobbins was #12 spring '25 & Aita for Contreras)

12 Sandlin (with Hicks for Ziehl)

______________________

2025 Deadline

7 Tibbs & Ehrhard (D May)

19 Blaze Jordan (Matz)

______________________

2024-2025 Winter:

4 Teel, 5 Montgomery, 8 Meidroth & 18 Wikelman (Crochet)

25 Elmer Rodriguez (Narvaez)

(Fall 2024: Dobbins was 11 & Fitts was 12)

________________________

Summer/Deadline 2024

12 Yorke (Priester)

13 Lugo (with others for Luis Garcia)

15 Paulino, 28 C Coffey (w Bautista for Danny Jansen)

29 Ovis Portes (Paxton)

That's a hell of a lot of ranked prospects trade and graduated to still be #9.

 

 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm ok with dealing Chappie if we keep Whitlock. and i still think they should try to extend Gray for 2-3 more years. clearly Crochet is of no use and a ticking time bomb for TJS. i wouldn't count on him to pitch even next year. Gray has been steady, averaging 160+ IP/year for the last 11 years and projects to at least that much this year.

i would add that should he not be agreeable to a reasonable extension, they yeah...trade him for the prospects that never materialize.

Sounds fair. I might go 1-2 on Gray with a year 2 or 3 option with a hefty buyout.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

The idea of opposing teams staring down the barrel of Crochet, Gray, Suarez. In a best of 3 series. With Bennett, Sandoval, (maybe Early) and Tolle in relief inning eating roles, warms my heart. That is what I liked about the roster before the season started. I think we can do some serious damage in October, but we need a couple of things offensively. 
 1. Get Anthony back playing like he did last year (OPS .850+) OR get a star player w/ a minimum of control through 2028

2. Make a trade for an everyday player or DH with .720+ OPS (Paredes, Maikel Garcia, Adell, Helios Ramos, Jeffers) or Roman plays this role and we add a #1. 

Look at our record outside of Fenway this team would have as good of a chance at playing in WS as any AL team. 

You're doing a good job nudging me towards the buy side of the fence, (5GG, too.)

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Why not a left fielder?

Yoshida and Romy can platoon at DH until Roman returns.  But get Duran out of the lineup (and possibly out of Boston) and get a decent hitter into LF.

Live the ideas of Jeffers or Langeliers behind the plate.  Langeliers might require Arias.

Not Adell.  He is still well below the extremely casual requirement of a .720 OPS…

I think LF is an option, but DHs are easier to find. (I'd be okay with Yoshida in LF v RHPs to end the season.) It's who plays LF vs LHPs that is in question. An all-around LF rental might be a good idea.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If the Sox become buyers, I'm hoping MIN will trade Jeffers and PIT will trade BLowe.

I'm not sure what they will cost, but it shouldn't be Early, Arias or Eyanson.

Those teams have better records than the Sox right now. 

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

We don't have the farm for a 2.5+ premium player, unless the other team is moving salary.  The guy you are describing might be Abrams, and even if he were to be traded, it would cost Arias, Witherspoon+.  How many teams even trade premium players with 2.5+?

If this was a 1st place team, I'd feel differently.  But we are aiming at a WC, with three on the road, with no certainty of having Crochet back.

The problem when dealing prospects is that most teams want guys that are close to MLB ready, they don't really want players like Justin Gonzales who is still in A ball. They want Gonzales when he's in AAA. Sox don't have the talent that is ready to be promoted to MLB. The assets they have are far away so have less value to other teams.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Those teams have better records than the Sox right now. 

Understood. I am going on the assumption they will be sellers and we will be buyers.

Yes, a big assumption.

BTW, PIT is -2.0 from the WC, while the ox are -0.5,

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Understood. I am going on the assumption they will be sellers and we will be buyers.

Yes, a big assumption.

BTW, PIT is -2.0 from the WC, while the ox are -0.5,

BTW, PIT is above .500 while BOS is below .500.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem when dealing prospects is that most teams want guys that are close to MLB ready, they don't really want players like Justin Gonzales who is still in A ball. They want Gonzales when he's in AAA. Sox don't have the talent that is ready to be promoted to MLB. The assets they have are far away so have less value to other teams.

Agreed, and same with Primera, Delzine and Soto. Valera had surgery, as did Gobout.

The Sox don't have many near ML ready prospects and need Arias & Eyanson to fill future needs.

Witherspoon may be in AA, soon, but 2028 is possible. Phillips, too.

The most ML ready prospects we have are in the Paulino, Cutter Coffey mold:

13 Holobetz AA

14 Cespedes (still in A+)

16 Romero AAA (more like #25-30)

18 Rivera MLB (We may need him)

19 Uberstine AAA (more like #25-30)

20. Paez AA

21. Mullins AA

24 Bastardo AAA

25 Winnay AA

26 Monegro AA

34 Jo Garcia AA

36 Brannon AA

31 Castro AAA & 37 Bleis AA

We aren't getting top talent with this list.

This is like past trades: Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims & James Paxton type material.

It might take Witherspoon, Phillips and some from this list to even keep GMs from hanging up.

Think Eyanson or Early, if you are wide-eyed.

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

BTW, PIT is above .500 while BOS is below .500.

I know. In 3 weeks, they may still be over .500 but 7 GB, while the Sox are at .500 and +1 in the WC.

[moonslav59]

Top OPS by possible trade targets at these positions:

Catcher

.942 Jeffers

.863 Goodman

.812 Rushing

.807 Langeliers

.763 Rutschman

SS

.874 O Lopez

.862 Abrams

.787 Correa

.779 Neto

.773 Pena

.701 Adames (way better than Cheng)

DH/LF

1.059 Yordan

.967 Soto

.904 Buxton

.902 Kurtz

.900 Moniak

.878 Reynolds

.871 A Vaughn

.863 J McCarthy

.846 Bleday

.842 Horwitz

.838 O'Hearn

.832 Eldridge

.829 Arraez (2B too)

.822 L Hicks

.820 Alonso

.817 Conforto

.812 S Stewart

.808 Soderstrom

.805 Schmidt

.799 N lowe

2B

.810 Edwards

.803 B Lowe

.790 G Torres

.772 KMarte

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem when dealing prospects is that most teams want guys that are close to MLB ready, they don't really want players like Justin Gonzales who is still in A ball. They want Gonzales when he's in AAA. Sox don't have the talent that is ready to be promoted to MLB. The assets they have are far away so have less value to other teams.

well then that's a good reason to trade KC. he's in AAA and ready to go. oh wait....he's worthless now that Brexslow gave him that idiotic extension that they'll be paying for long after he's out of baseball.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

well then that's a good reason to trade KC. he's in AAA and ready to go. oh wait....he's worthless now that Brexslow gave him that idiotic extension that they'll be paying for long after he's out of baseball.

Have you 100% written KC off?