A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

What do these ex Sox players have in common?

.422 Refsnyder

.587 Blaze Jordan

.651 DHam

,676 Meidroth ('25 to '26)

0-0 Quinn Priester

0-0 Luis Perales

4.50 Sandlin

6.28 S Matz

[moonslav59]

MLB ERA SP Leaders (47+ IP)

1.65 Misiorowski

1.71 Bryce Miller

1.79 Ohtani

2.01 Schlitter

2.25 ERod

2.27 Sale

2.28 Wheeler

2.49 Yamamoto

2.54 Burns

2.56 Cease

2.58 Meyer

2.61 Gray

2.61 N Martinez

2.62 Sanchez 

2.64 Bennett

2.64 Mize

2.69 Wrobleski

2.77 Griffin

2.78 Rasmussen 

2.80 Messick

2.83 McClanahan

2.85 Joe Ryan

2.88 Urena

2.97 Drohan

3.01 McGeevy

3.01 Harrison

3.06 Skubal

3.07 Soroka

3.10 Ginn

3.14 Tolle

3.15 Montero

3.15 Suarez

We may have 4 ex Spx pitchers in the top 30, but we also have 4 active ones.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

If nothing else we now have a pitching staff to get excited about.  Tolle, Early and now Bennett have all pitched very well.  Put them with Suarez, Crochet and Gray and this should have been an amazing starting staff. 

Not sure of the health of Crochet but we could be potentially looking at starting 5 excellend LHP as a starting staff next season, not sure that's ever been done before.   

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What do these ex Sox players have in common?

Future HOF players that Breslow traded away for nothing?

[Hugh2]

Some team offensive numebrs the last few weeks.  Since June 19th they've gone 11-5.

HR's - 23rd

Runs - 11th

OWar - 12th

SLG - 15th

OBP 13th

 

Those aren't elite numbers, but the silver lining is I think they're sustainable.  It's about a middle of the pact offense which is what I expected.  It's good enough to be a winning team if combined with elite starting pitching and defense.  

I'm not ready to call them buyers yet but if they continue on this trajectory they will be buyers in a few weeks. Adding a big bat and getting healthy by seasons end would be wonderful. I wouldn't wait all the way to August 3rd to act, but I also want to see more before I'd invest in this team as well. The Sox come out of the all star break with an A.L. EAST home stand vs. TB/BAL/TOR.  If they put up a good showing in those three series I'm looking to make move then before heading out the west coast. 

Also, I think winning together is important.  These guys are winning games right now when everyone counted them out, for management to come in and say "here you go, here's a nice big bat to play with" helps solidify that confidence.  It means something. 

 

[dannycater]

Got to give credit where credit is due...Sox playing better and pitching is lights out most nights--Bennett been terrific..seems like the return of Romy G has been a big lift too.. Contreras hitting like a monster...better than all the losing...does it matter after their terrible start? No, but who knows if they can keep this up with all the injuries--no Anthony, no Crochet..Breslow has to feel really good because first the team is winning finally and then the Stevens/Celts owner nonsense over the J. Brown awful trade...worse than Devers. Takes all that pressure off of him from Boston media for a while.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What do these ex Sox players have in common?

.422 Refsnyder

.587 Blaze Jordan

.651 DHam

,676 Meidroth ('25 to '26)

0-0 Quinn Priester

0-0 Luis Perales

4.50 Sandlin

6.28 S Matz

Sale 2.42 ERA, 34-14, 398 IP, 502 K

Harrison 3.01 ERA, 8-2, 83 IP, 101 K

Drohan 2.97 ERA, 4-2, 63 IP, 61 K

Meidroth has 1.8 bWAR this season FWIW. That's better than what we've thrown out there at 2b or SS. 

Not sure what the point is to pile on Perales since he's working his way back from TJS. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, dannycater said:

the return of Romy G has been a big lift too.. 

Almost like they needed to add another bat prior to the season? 

[mvp 78]

46 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Some team offensive numebrs the last few weeks.  Since June 19th they've gone 11-5.

HR's - 23rd

Runs - 11th

OWar - 12th

SLG - 15th

OBP 13th

 

Those aren't elite numbers, but the silver lining is I think they're sustainable.  It's about a middle of the pact offense which is what I expected.  It's good enough to be a winning team if combined with elite starting pitching and defense.  

I'm not ready to call them buyers yet but if they continue on this trajectory they will be buyers in a few weeks. Adding a big bat and getting healthy by seasons end would be wonderful. I wouldn't wait all the way to August 3rd to act, but I also want to see more before I'd invest in this team as well. The Sox come out of the all star break with an A.L. EAST home stand vs. TB/BAL/TOR.  If they put up a good showing in those three series I'm looking to make move then before heading out the west coast. 

Also, I think winning together is important.  These guys are winning games right now when everyone counted them out, for management to come in and say "here you go, here's a nice big bat to play with" helps solidify that confidence.  It means something. 

Good enough to win most games in the regular season. 

[Hugh2]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Almost like they needed to add another bat prior to the season? 

If one bat is making this big of a difference now. What would it have looked like if

Duran played at an all star level

Roman Anthony was healhty and took off

Marcelo Mayer was healthy and took off

Trevor Story was healthy and played like last year

Obviously all teams deal with injuries but if one guy can make a difference then having just one more key injury is going to make a difference. Right?

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If one bat is making this big of a difference now. What would it have looked like if

Duran played at an all star level

Roman Anthony was healhty and took off

Marcelo Mayer was healthy and took off

Trevor Story was healthy and played like last year

Obviously all teams deal with injuries but if one guy can make a difference then having just one more key injury is going to make a difference. Right?

Duran isn't an All Star. They should have traded that headcase after '24. 

Roman isn't healthy and has been mismanaged by the medical staff.

Marcelo wasn't ready last season and still isn't ready now. He should have been left in AAA last year.

Story healthy? Are the Sox trying to win the lottery two years in a row? He's also not a good enough bat to make a difference. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Almost like they needed to add another bat prior to the season? 

Or to have the bats they already had actually show up.  
 

In the case of Romy, it was more literal…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Or to have the bats they already had actually show up.  
 

In the case of Romy, it was more literal…

With Romy, they knew he was injured on the first day of ST. They decided to go with Monasterio instead. 

[notin]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran isn't an All Star. They should have traded that headcase after '24. 

Roman isn't healthy and has been mismanaged by the medical staff.

Marcelo wasn't ready last season and still isn't ready now. He should have been left in AAA last year.

Story healthy? Are the Sox trying to win the lottery two years in a row? He's also not a good enough bat to make a difference. 

Regardless, Duran has never been this useless.  Trade him to Atlanta for Sean Murphy. 

How was Roman mismanaged? Please don’t say “he should have had surgery.”  Not everyone with his injury has had surgery, and surgery itself is ALWAYS a big deal despite the fan attitude that it’s a quick fix treatment.

I do think Marcelo should return to AAA.  He wasn’t called up because he was ready; he was called up because he wasn’t injured.   Time to get the old schedule back in place.

As much as I like Cheng, Story does represent an improvement…

 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With Romy, they knew he was injured on the first day of ST. They decided to go with Monasterio instead. 

True, but he’s a lesser bat even in that specialized but limited role.

But if players like Duran, Story, Narvaez were even close to last year, this team has a much better W-L record…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

True, but he’s a lesser bat even in that specialized but limited role.

But if players like Duran, Story, Narvaez were even close to last year, this team has a much better W-L record…

I can see expecting more out of Duran or Narvaez, but expecting more out of Story seems farfetched. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I can see expecting more out of Duran or Narvaez, but expecting more out of Story seems farfetched. 

Hitting on all three was probably unlikely.  But hitting on 2 of 3 might have made a noticeable difference.  Especially Duran, since he might have lead the team in PA…

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Hitting on all three was probably unlikely.  But hitting on 2 of 3 might have made a noticeable difference.  Especially Duran, since he might have lead the team in PA…

Sure, but it seems like those people who were interested in trading Duran have history on their side. Same with Story. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, but it seems like those people who were interested in trading Duran have history on their side. Same with Story. 

No one expected this awful season from Duran, including teams that didn’t trade for him…

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not ready to call them buyers yet but if they continue on this trajectory they will be buyers in a few weeks.

And that's always the problem.  I'd say roughly 20% of the teams know if they are contenders or out of it.  If I were the RS, I'd start adding on the cheap.  Maybe another RP who could be flipped at the deadline, if necessary.  Or maybe a RH slugging DH with no other skills.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

With Romy, they knew he was injured on the first day of ST. They decided to go with Monasterio instead. 

If you have a player that will be out temporarily, you generally go with your best bench player.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I can see expecting more out of Duran or Narvaez, but expecting more out of Story seems farfetched. 

He had a .547 before getting injured, about 200 points worse than last year.  My abacus considers that unexpected.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Future HOF players that Breslow traded away for nothing?

In some posters' minds, maybe.

I was thinking more like players some posters have talked up like they will be HOF'ers with numbers that look far from HOF'ers.

Okay, Sale & Harrison, Sale & Harrison, Sale & Harrison- that's 6 in some minds.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Almost like they needed to add another bat prior to the season? 

Yup, they needed Romy, Anthony and another big bat.

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

He had a .547 before getting injured, about 200 points worse than last year.  My abacus considers that unexpected.

He's had some pretty awful stretches, though.  He was at .585 at the end of May in 2025.  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sale 2.42 ERA, 34-14, 398 IP, 502 K

Harrison 3.01 ERA, 8-2, 83 IP, 101 K

Drohan 2.97 ERA, 4-2, 63 IP, 61 K

Meidroth has 1.8 bWAR this season FWIW. That's better than what we've thrown out there at 2b or SS. 

Not sure what the point is to pile on Perales since he's working his way back from TJS. 

That's "piling on Perales?"

I haven't heard you say the same about YRod, Holobetz, Jose Bello, and the guy we got for Meidroth.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Regardless, Duran has never been this useless.  Trade him to Atlanta for Sean Murphy. 

How was Roman mismanaged? Please don’t say “he should have had surgery.”  Not everyone with his injury has had surgery, and surgery itself is ALWAYS a big deal despite the fan attitude that it’s a quick fix treatment.

I do think Marcelo should return to AAA.  He wasn’t called up because he was ready; he was called up because he wasn’t injured.   Time to get the old schedule back in place.

As much as I like Cheng, Story does represent an improvement…

 

Still on the Sean Murphy kick. Murphy has ASCIH of coming to Boston. Bad contract, bad player, and bad fit, so to sum it all up just bad all the way around. Come on man!

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

If one bat is making this big of a difference now. What would it have looked like if

Duran played at an all star level

Roman Anthony was healhty and took off

Marcelo Mayer was healthy and took off

Trevor Story was healthy and played like last year

Obviously all teams deal with injuries but if one guy can make a difference then having just one more key injury is going to make a difference. Right?

Fantasy Island.🤓

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I can see expecting more out of Duran or Narvaez, but expecting more out of Story seems farfetched. 

It wasn't expecting more from Story than 2025, it was expecting better than his 2026. 

I think everyone knew or expected he might/would do worse, but not this badly.

Same with Narvaez. Thank God Wong had flipped the script to about the same degree, but with less PAs.

I, for one, did expect more than 2025 from Abreu.

I expected more than what we've gotten in 2026 from Durbin, Duran , Narvaez, Story, Abreu, Mayer, Yoshida and Anthony. Maybe I expected too much. I knew all would not improve, but I never expected all these guys to decline. 

The only true over-expectation everyday guys are Contreras, Wong and Rafaela, and just a little on Ceddanne.

Brez wasn't the only guy around who expected better.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's had some pretty awful stretches, though.  He was at .585 at the end of May in 2025.  

Story Land has been opened, and closed for repairs, and maintenance pretty much since he’s been here, so it’s been iffy when he’d be open, and when he’d be closed.