A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

You guys. Crack me up. You’re always trying to unload players you don’t want like Story, and Masa, and think other teams will want them. If you were suggesting a trade for the Braves do you think you’d offer that same trade, because you wanted Story, and Masa? 🙈

Do you think the Braves are happy with Murphy and Riley? 
 

The real problem contract in that conversation is not Story snd not Yoshida.  It’s Riley, and by a lot.  5 straight years of declining performance with 6 more years and $132mill left.  A trade for Story and Yoshida at this point for Atlanta is not about those players; it’s about escaping. They’d be crazy to not consider it.

A trade of Riley and Murphy for Story snd Yoshida is far more likely to be turned down by Boston that it is by Atlanta…

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

Do you think the Braves are happy with Murphy and Riley? 
 

The real problem contract in that conversation is not Story snd not Yoshida.  It’s Riley, and by a lot.  5 straight years of declining performance with 6 more years and $132mill left.  A trade for Story and Yoshida at this point for Atlanta is not about those players; it’s about escaping. They’d be crazy to not consider it.

A trade of Riley and Murphy for Story snd Yoshida is far more likely to be turned down by Boston that it is by Atlanta…

I didn’t realize Riley had dropped off so much, so that makes it even more unlikely. Atlanta wouldn’t want Boston’s problems, and Boston wouldn’t want Atlanta’s problems especially those two contracts.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Breslow can’t value any internal guy correctly: Harrison, Duran, Mayer, Sale, etc.

I don’t trust his models.

You named 4, and apparantly he valued Harrison enough to trade for him.

He has made many good trades, and most are still TBD, even the Harrison trade.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Do you think the Braves are happy with Murphy and Riley? 
 

The real problem contract in that conversation is not Story snd not Yoshida.  It’s Riley, and by a lot.  5 straight years of declining performance with 6 more years and $132mill left.  A trade for Story and Yoshida at this point for Atlanta is not about those players; it’s about escaping. They’d be crazy to not consider it.

A trade of Riley and Murphy for Story snd Yoshida is far more likely to be turned down by Boston that it is by Atlanta…

Agreed. Riley is owed more than Yoshida & Story. Add Murphy and it's likely BOS who says no.

I did not suggest Story and Yoshida because I thought ATL wanted them.

[moonslav59]

The Sox can control their own destiny to a large extent, but not totally:

-0.5 A's (4 games right before the deadline)

-1.0 BAL (7 games vs them)

-1.5 TOR (7 games left)

-3.0 MIN (zero)

-3.5 HOU (zero0

-4.5 TEX (3 games in late Sept)

-6.0 CLE (3 games in late Sept)

-7.5 CWS (3 games coming up soon & 3 more later on)

[vegasbob]

I see T. Casas has been shut down in his rehab due to a sore wrist.

This guy is the poster child for assclowns

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

I see T. Casas has been shut down in his rehab due to a sore wrist.

This guy is the poster child for assclowns

Getting hurt while hurt seems to be a Sox specialty.

[a700hitter]

Devers with 2 HRs today.  We don’t need that.🙄

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, a700hitter said:

Devers with 2 HRs today.  We don’t need that.🙄

Yup, two solo blasts in the Giants loss.

We could use that!

🤣

[moonslav59]

Some ex-Sox numbers:

.937 Schwarber

.796 Nate Lowe

,791 Devers

.756 Dubon

.736 Betts

.722 Benintendi

.717 Meidroth

.715 Dom Smith

.704 Br Montgomery

.694 Teel

.685 Bregman

.672 V Grissom

.658 Bogaerts

.642 Blaze Jordan

.636 DHam

.605 Moncada, .600 Tristan Gray, .586 Danny Jansen

.581 O'Neill, .555 Yorke, .483 Z Short, .472 Jh Garcia

.445 McGuire, ,422 Refsnyder, .182 Sandy Leon

 

 

[moonslav59]

Ex Sox Pitchers (Qualified)

2.25 ERod

2.27 Sale

3,45 Wacha

4.02 Eovaldi

5.79 Springs

50+ IP

2.58 Newcomb

2.82 Harrison

3.12 Drohan

3.54 Martin Perez

4.61 Buehler

4.80 D May

6.28 Matz

[moonslav59]

How about the Rays?

They were 77-85, and their off season was rather underwhelming, yet here they are!

FA Signings:

$13M/1 Nick Martinez 2.61 ERA in 100 IP (Very nice)

$15M/2 Steven Matz 6.28 ERA in 53 IP

$7M/1 Cedric Mullins .651 OPS

$3M/1 Jake Fraley ,690 OPS and on IL a lot.

Major Trades:

B Lowe, J Mangum & mason Montgomery for Jacob Melton & Anderson Brito

Shane Baz for de Brun, Bodine & Forret

Josh Lowe for Gavin Lux & Chris Clark

Colton Ledbetter for Ben Williamson

Tristan Gray for Luis Guerrero

What GM had the better "on paper" offseason?

 

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about the Rays?

They were 77-85, and their off season was rather underwhelming, yet here they are!

FA Signings:

$13M/1 Nick Martinez 2.61 ERA in 100 IP (Very nice)

$15M/2 Steven Matz 6.28 ERA in 53 IP

$7M/1 Cedric Mullins .651 OPS

$3M/1 Jake Fraley ,690 OPS and on IL a lot.

Major Trades:

B Lowe, J Mangum & mason Montgomery for Jacob Melton & Anderson Brito

Shane Baz for de Brun, Bodine & Forret

Josh Lowe for Gavin Lux & Chris Clark

Colton Ledbetter for Ben Williamson

Tristan Gray for Luis Guerrero

What GM had the better "on paper" offseason?

 

On paper off paper whatever……., The one who already had Yandy Diaz, and Junior Caminero, and doesn’t buy so deep into analytics that half their team is injured all the time. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB.com listed deadline needs for all 30 teams, and about 20 of them need pitching, mostly in the bullpen. Only a handful of clubs are seeking bats.

If the Sox really want to make a run at a Wild Card, they probably can't afford to trade Gray at this point. Not with Early and now Suarez hurt. Hanging onto a top closer like Chapman might also be more vital, too.

The dilemma is that we all know the offense just doesn't have enough to sustain any winning streaks for very long. The key bats from last year aren't returning to the line-up at full force any time soon. All hopes are pinned on Romy our homey...

[JoeBrady]

On 7/2/2026 at 12:17 PM, a700hitter said:

The team is going nowhere.  They should trade psycho Contreras before he gets injured or further damages his marketability.  The Mets could use a first baseman.

The Mets won't be buying.

[JoeBrady]

On 7/3/2026 at 1:42 PM, a700hitter said:

And did the Red Sox give him away mid-season in his prime?

The RS did not give him away.  Harrison has far outplayed Devers and Tibbs has value.

[JoeBrady]

On 7/3/2026 at 5:17 PM, moonslav59 said:

then the obvious question is 'WTF didn't HE move to first base?'

If you are referring to Bregman, there is a -0- chance that you move a GG 3B to 1B to accommodate Devers glove at 3rd.

[JoeBrady]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good points, but have we really had more injuries than most other teams, especially on offense?

Anthony & Romy hurt.

Story's replacements have hit better than he did.

If you replace Narvaez', Story's, and RA's 2026 OPS with their 2025 OPS, we would be 14th in OPS.

[Bellhorn04]

57 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If you replace Narvaez', Story's, and RA's 2026 OPS with their 2025 OPS, we would be 14th in OPS.

That's true, but if we're going to be totally consistent don't we also have to replace Contreras's 2026 OPS with his 2025 OPS?  Otherwise we're kind of playing mix and match.

Using pre-season 2026 projections might be the fairest method of all.

[notin]

16 hours ago, Old Red said:

I didn’t realize Riley had dropped off so much, so that makes it even more unlikely. Atlanta wouldn’t want Boston’s problems, and Boston wouldn’t want Atlanta’s problems especially those two contracts.

Atlanta might greatly prefer Boston’s much cheaper and shorter problems (that also weirdly fill holes in their lineup).

Now would Boston want Riley? Probably not, and $132mill makes him a pricey gamble on change of scenery.  Murphy, on the other hand, actually makes a lot of sense for Boston.  But his contract isn’t so problematic for Atlanta that they clearly prefer either Story or Yoshida. They might, but it’s just not obvious…

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Atlanta might greatly prefer Boston’s much cheaper and shorter problems (that also weirdly fill holes in their lineup).

Now would Boston want Riley? Probably not, and $132mill makes him a pricey gamble on change of scenery.  Murphy, on the other hand, actually makes a lot of sense for Boston.  But his contract isn’t so problematic for Atlanta that they clearly prefer either Story or Yoshida. They might, but it’s just not obvious…

Murphy on the other hand makes no sense for the Red Sox even if he was making $5M the next two years+ let alone the $15M he’s owed. He’s been rolling down hill the last 3 years.

[notin]

15 hours ago, vegasbob said:

I see T. Casas has been shut down in his rehab due to a sore wrist.

This guy is the poster child for assclowns

Sox should still offer him arbitration.  He has shown he can hit and Boston needs that plus apparently he still has 3 options left…

[notin]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Murphy on the other hand makes no sense for the Red Sox even if he was making $5M the next two years+ let alone the $15M he’s owed. He’s been rolling down hill the last 3 years.

That could be the inconsistent playing time since the emergence of Baldwin.  But he’s an excellent catcher with right-handed power.   With only 2 years left on his deal, he’s a worthwhile gamble…

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's true, but if we're going to be totally consistent don't we also have to replace Contreras's 2026 OPS with his 2025 OPS?  We can't play mix and match.

Using pre-season 2026 projections might be the fairest method of all.

As I recall, a lot of people on here questioned all offseason whether this lineup was going to be enough. In fact, I think there was near-consensus that the lineup had some major red flags. There was a lot of streaky hitting, a lot of swing-and-miss, and several players with a history of injuries. Quite frankly, there was also a lack of power.

Breslow knew it, too. Back in October, he said the Red Sox needed a power bat and a No. 2 starter. He went out and added two aces to the rotation, but never adequately addressed the lineup. That decision has come back to haunt both him and the fan base. His gamble required 3-4 young, streaky, injury-prone players to have career years just for the offense to be middle-of-the-pack.

To me, this season feels like the scene in Titanic after the ship hits the iceberg. The engineer explains that the ship can survive if water enters up to four compartments, but the fifth compartment is the death knell. That’s what this season has felt like. Too many things had to go right, and too many have gone wrong.

1. Narváez/ Catcher-Not great behind the plate in the ABS era, and currently sitting at a 51 OPS+.

2. Abreu- If you remove April and extrapolate his May-July production over a full 162-game season, he would be on pace for: .240 AVG, .709 OPS, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 87 OPS+ Those are serviceable numbers, but not when left field and DH production have fallen so far short of expectations.

3. Duran- Catastrophic production relative to expectations. No need to elaborate.

4. Anthony- Somehow this situation has been even worse than the Jarren Duran setback because it’s another bizarre, freak injury that simply isn’t healing. Even before the injury, his April was well below expectations.

5. Story / Mayer- Story has been horrendous: Not healthy. Producing a 55 OPS+.

Mayer has struggled with both health and performance, posting just a .594 OPS.

Individually, maybe you can survive one or two of these disappointments. But when all of them happen at the same time, the lineup simply doesn’t have enough depth, power, or consistency to absorb the damage. That’s why this offense has looked exactly like many of us feared it might back in the offseason. And if all of us “fanatics” could see it, why couldn’t the RS FO/ ownership?

[notin]

14 hours ago, a700hitter said:

Devers with 2 HRs today.  We don’t need that.🙄

According to MLB Network, Devers is on the trading block…

[notin]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

As I recall, a lot of people on here questioned all offseason whether this lineup was going to be enough. In fact, I think there was near-consensus that the lineup had some major red flags. There was a lot of streaky hitting, a lot of swing-and-miss, and several players with a history of injuries. Quite frankly, there was also a lack of power.

Breslow knew it, too. Back in October, he said the Red Sox needed a power bat and a No. 2 starter. He went out and added two aces to the rotation, but never adequately addressed the lineup. That decision has come back to haunt both him and the fan base. His gamble required 3-4 young, streaky, injury-prone players to have career years just for the offense to be middle-of-the-pack.

To me, this season feels like the scene in Titanic after the ship hits the iceberg. The engineer explains that the ship can survive if water enters up to four compartments, but the fifth compartment is the death knell. That’s what this season has felt like. Too many things had to go right, and too many have gone wrong.

1. Narváez/ Catcher-Not great behind the plate in the ABS era, and currently sitting at a 51 OPS+.

2. Abreu- If you remove April and extrapolate his May-July production over a full 162-game season, he would be on pace for: .240 AVG, .709 OPS, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 87 OPS+ Those are serviceable numbers, but not when left field and DH production have fallen so far short of expectations.

3. Duran- Catastrophic production relative to expectations. No need to elaborate.

4. Anthony- Somehow this situation has been even worse than the Jarren Duran setback because it’s another bizarre, freak injury that simply isn’t healing. Even before the injury, his April was well below expectations.

5. Story / Mayer- Story has been horrendous: Not healthy. Producing a 55 OPS+.

Mayer has struggled with both health and performance, posting just a .594 OPS.

Individually, maybe you can survive one or two of these disappointments. But when all of them happen at the same time, the lineup simply doesn’t have enough depth, power, or consistency to absorb the damage. That’s why this offense has looked exactly like many of us feared it might back in the offseason. And if all of us “fanatics” could see it, why couldn’t the RS FO/ ownership?

Do you think Durbin is working out?

Tough question.  His start was horrific, but he clearly isn’t that bad.  His resurgence has been amazing, but he likely isn’t that good…

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, notin said:

That could be the inconsistent playing time since the emergence of Baldwin.  But he’s an excellent catcher with right-handed power.   With only 2 years left on his deal, he’s a worthwhile gamble…

NASCIH for $15M per. Even Charles Barkley would get this right. GUARANTEED!

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

The RS did not give him away.  Harrison has far outplayed Devers and Tibbs has value.

We also got Ziehl for Hicks (and Sandlin.)

Don't forget the great Jose Bello!

🤪

[moonslav59]

The Yanks and Rays play a series, so someone has to lose each day.

HOU is at WSH and TOR at SFG, so maybe they hit hard times.

BAL (the team we are closest to passing) hosts the Cubs, while the A's and DET play each other-both very close to the Sox in the standings.

SEA plays at MIA and TEX hosts the reeling Angels. (Looks like TEX might gain some ground on SEA.) CLE plays at MIN, so the Sox can gain on one or both of them, if we beat the CWS.

The weekend series:

BOS @ NYM

HOU @ TEX

KCR @ BAL

CLE @ MIA

A's @ CWS

LAA @ MIN

TOR @ SDP

SEA @ TBR

NYY @ WSH

As you can see, many of the teams above us will be playing each other, so if we can keep winning, we will pass some teams.

I'm still not confident we can make the playoffs, but things can change in the next week or two and before the trade deadline.

Missing Crochet & Anthony hurts, but this team looked pretty good on paper back in March, despite the missing big bat. Maybe that team can show up and play like we expected.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Do you think Durbin is working out?

Tough question.  His start was horrific, but he clearly isn’t that bad.  His resurgence has been amazing, but he likely isn’t that good…

I think Durbin would fit this team really well IF we get 2 more + power bats for 2027. His defense has been nothing less than incredible.