A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

These are not guys who you count on to be your primary offensive providers

It's still a surprise.  FG projected .683 for Narvaez, .735 for Story, and .802 for Anthony.  So .563, .547, and .675 are surprises.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Frankly, its just easier and more consistent to improve your run differential by increasing your offense vs having to have lights out SP, RP, AND defense.  

That could well be true.  But run differential will still tell you what your record will be.  The more you outscore your opponent, the better your record will be.

[vegasbob]

54 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Like us, or the league?  I doubt we see much of a work stoppage, if any.  The RS, well, they have a lot of variables.  But my guess on the payroll is about $210-215M, so we'll have $40M to spend before hit the first cap, and maybe $80M before we start seeing some pushback.

I want to save this one for reference because I don't think you could be more wrong.  There will be an extended stoppage before play may resume in July 2027

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's still a surprise.  FG projected .683 for Narvaez, .735 for Story, and .802 for Anthony.  So .563, .547, and .675 are surprises.

Those are significant swings, and Duran (.762> .624) & Durbin's (.746> .636) are also well below projections, but we also have a few plusses:

Contreras: .785> .896 (+111)

Rafaela: .725> .785 (+60)

Wong: .674> .750 (+76)

IKF: .651> .705 (+54)

[moonslav59]

We won 89 games, last year and many of us projected 90 or more this year, as it looked like the AL got worse, overall (and it did.) Even Fred projected 90 wins (and missing play playoffs) as he must have expected the AL to dominate.

I heard Brez said they felt they improved from the EOY roster last year, and was mocked by one podcast I watched for saying that.

[vegasbob]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We won 89 games, last year and many of us projected 90 or more this year, as it looked like the AL got worse, overall (and it did.) Even Fred projected 90 wins (and missing play playoffs) as he must have expected the AL to dominate.

I heard Brez said they felt they improved from the EOY roster last year, and was mocked by one podcast I watched for saying that.

The irony is that  on paper by stats and projections, Brez could be technically correct .

But for multiple failures to start and various injuries , the results are bad

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Those are significant swings, and Duran (.762> .624) & Durbin's (.746> .636) are also well below projections, but we also have a few plusses:

Contreras: .785> .896 (+111)

Rafaela: .725> .785 (+60)

Wong: .674> .750 (+76)

IKF: .651> .705 (+54)

There is no way to model this, since half the players do better and half do worse,   But figured Contreras, Raffy, Abreu, Durbin, and Mayer don't surprise me with the +/-.  Wong & IKF don't have enough PAs to surprise one way or another.

But I was surprised by just how far off Duran is and should've included him.  I've done this exercise before, but if Story, Narvaez, and Anthony hit their FG projections, the RS would have a .721, good for 16th.  If we include Duran reaching his FG projection, then our OPS is .738, good for 7th.

[JoeBrady]

33 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

The irony is that  on paper by stats and projections, Brez could be technically correct .

But for multiple failures to start and various injuries , the results are bad

That's basically my point.  This was never going to be a great offense, but they projected to be much better.

[notin]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

But there is a ton more year to year randomness with pitching and you can improve pitching as the year goes by and you can scrap together a pitching staff.  Also, you need to be rock solid in both pitching (starting) and pitching (relief) AND defense to have a good run differential that is driven by run prevention.

Frankly, its just easier and more consistent to improve your run differential by increasing your offense vs having to have lights out SP, RP, AND defense.  

This is just not true.  In fact, it’s common to decrease/damage/destroy your run differential by adding hitting because the new hitters are worse defensively.

And hitting isn’t more the more consistent aspect.  Players have bad seasons at the plate, too.  Not to mention, hitting isn’t the weaker part of the game as hitters are at the disadvantage.  Theres a reason no hitter has ever batted .500.  Maybe there’s more room to improve upon hitting because of the inherent role it plays in the nature of the game, but because those same players play defense, it doesn’t necessarily impact the run differential positively…

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, vegasbob said:

The irony is that  on paper by stats and projections, Brez could be technically correct .

But for multiple failures to start and various injuries , the results are bad

When you figure even Fred thought we'd win more games, this year, I don't think anyone can call Brez crazy for thinking it.

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

There is no way to model this, since half the players do better and half do worse,   

In the Sox case, over 2/3 are doing worse than projected, including low-playing players.

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's basically my point.  This was never going to be a great offense, but they projected to be much better.

It's not the first time a team came up  way short of projections on O or D or pitching.

Many felt fangraphs was rough on Sox projections.

I don't think we can blame injuries for the offense, since we have not had all that many. AThe rotation has seen a lot, but most teams have had major injuries to their rotations, too.

I think almost all of us felt our offense could have used at least one more big bat. While I was one who did not think Bregman and Bichette were "big bats," I did think both would hit better than Durbin.

Anthony and Mayer had a lot of promise, but I think we all knew it was speculative value. Narvaez was still rather unknown, and Rafaela has always been up and down. Many felt Contreras was too old to count on to repeat or improve on his 2025 or prior 2-3 year numbers. Story has always been a question... not just healthwise.

To me, the most hope was on the players nearing or within peak prime. Abreu, Duran and to some extent Yoshida coulda-woulda-shoulda improved. They did not. There was hope for Anthony, Narvaez & Durbin, too, but less certain.

The end result is we clearly needed another big bat, and one could argue two. That's beyond the Contreras addition. When you look at how FAs are doing, now, Brez would have had to have been extremely lucky to pick the right ones. Schwarber seemed like the no-brainer, but I'm not sure even a few $M more a season would have landed him in Boston.

Picking Murakami and trading for BLowe or Donovan were not choices any of us were clamouring for, yet Brez gets the blame for not being a fortune teller. Ultimately, it is the GM who gets the blame, even if he seemingly chose the right guys to add. In hindsight, maybe we could have gotten BLowe or Donovan for the Oviedo offer plus Bello added on, but Monday morning QB'ing is always right.

 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

In the Sox case, over 2/3 are doing worse than projected, including low-playing players.

It's your fault for not telling me there was going to be another cliff! 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not the first time a team came up  way short of projections on O or D or pitching.

Many felt fangraphs was rough on Sox projections.

I don't think we can blame injuries for the offense, since we have not had all that many. AThe rotation has seen a lot, but most teams have had major injuries to their rotations, too.

I think almost all of us felt our offense could have used at least one more big bat. While I was one who did not think Bregman and Bichette were "big bats," I did think both would hit better than Durbin.

Anthony and Mayer had a lot of promise, but I think we all knew it was speculative value. Narvaez was still rather unknown, and Rafaela has always been up and down. Many felt Contreras was too old to count on to repeat or improve on his 2025 or prior 2-3 year numbers. Story has always been a question... not just healthwise.

To me, the most hope was on the players nearing or within peak prime. Abreu, Duran and to some extent Yoshida coulda-woulda-shoulda improved. They did not. There was hope for Anthony, Narvaez & Durbin, too, but less certain.

The end result is we clearly needed another big bat, and one could argue two. That's beyond the Contreras addition. When you look at how FAs are doing, now, Brez would have had to have been extremely lucky to pick the right ones. Schwarber seemed like the no-brainer, but I'm not sure even a few $M more a season would have landed him in Boston.

Picking Murakami and trading for BLowe or Donovan were not choices any of us were clamouring for, yet Brez gets the blame for not being a fortune teller. Ultimately, it is the GM who gets the blame, even if he seemingly chose the right guys to add. In hindsight, maybe we could have gotten BLowe or Donovan for the Oviedo offer plus Bello added on, but Monday morning QB'ing is always right.

The specific projection that was weird was "no Sox player would reach 20 HR." 

They currently have 3 guys that could probably get there and that's with Roman Anthony on a season long IL. 

[mvp 78]

Steamer: 1.2 fWAR

ZiPS: 1.4 fWAR

Contreras not even halfway through the season: 2.3 fWAR

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Again so you’re saying it NEVER works because it failed this one time?

Hint:  Don’t.  It’s easier to find a bottom 5 scoring team that made the WS than a bottom 5 run preventer that did.

No, I'm sure it has worked, I am just saying that this year is not a string bad luck.  It was a bad vision and bad execution by the CBO.  Although, you could argue to be this far below expectation it would require all 3: bad luck, bad vision, bad CBO execution.

If you are expected to have the 10th worst offense in baseball, and you wind up bottom five - I dont think we get to excuse it with bad luck, even though I acknowledge that there was some bad luck.  Kind of like if you drive recklessly and injure someone, sure there is some bad luck in that, but you dont exactly get to use it as an excuse.

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

There is no way to model this, since half the players do better and half do worse,   But figured Contreras, Raffy, Abreu, Durbin, and Mayer don't surprise me with the +/-.  Wong & IKF don't have enough PAs to surprise one way or another.

But I was surprised by just how far off Duran is and should've included him.  I've done this exercise before, but if Story, Narvaez, and Anthony hit their FG projections, the RS would have a .721, good for 16th.  If we include Duran reaching his FG projection, then our OPS is .738, good for 7th.

But story has gotten significantly hurt in like 4 of his last 5 seasons and Anthony has gotten hurt in 100% of his MLB seasons, so I dont think its particularly smart on Breslow to assume he would have gotten a full season of the noted projecteions.  Regarding Narv, I mean what is he going to finish within 1-2 WAR of where we thought?  Hes kind of doing his job, and we shouldnt look for production from Catcher anyways.

I hear you on the player by player vs their expected production levels.  The death by 6-9 disappointments to varying degrees.  But again, I think that a big failure and what makes this level of stinking possible is the complete lack of star power on the offensive side.  We should not have expected really anybody on this team to be a superstar hitter. Contreras is getting up there in years. Abreu has historically struggled vs lefties.  Anthony is super young and got hurt last year.  Maybe Duran - but hes been erratic over his tenure here as a whole.

And I know fans tend to dislike stars. They dont like the paycheck. They dont like how they get so much credit. Fans tend to like the scrappy and overlooked role players....BUt I do think that the people who are like "no big contracts"....."Be super efficient" ....."Look at this team from a position by position breakdown as opposed to from a perspective of who is/are our elite hitter(s)".....Pitching and defense wins (with timely or just a little hitting)....max efficiency (so dont even consider a DH , we cant waste Masas pay)

These kind of things that we consider to hear from the budget hawk sox fans, Im jsut saying that there is another side to that.  There is a downside.  And I believe we are seeing it.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But story has gotten significantly hurt in like 4 of his last 5 seasons and Anthony has gotten hurt in 100% of his MLB seasons, so I dont think its particularly smart on Breslow to assume he would have gotten a full season of the noted projecteions. 

Anthony had only played in half of one MLB season. Why would Breslow assume he'd be injured in the next season if he had no previous injuries in MiLB? 

You can make the case for Story, but not Anthony. 

[UtahSox]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The specific projection that was weird was "no Sox player would reach 20 HR." 

They currently have 3 guys that could probably get there and that's with Roman Anthony on a season long IL. 

FWIW i know you said Dbacks wanted both Tolle and Early I heard Milliken yesterday say the Dbacks wanted Mayer & Early in the trade for Marte…. Not both young lefty SP’s. So there’s that. Marte should be on Red Sox. 
 

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's your fault for not telling me there was going to be another cliff! 

I'll never brag about being right on that one. I was not alone in that position, either. The massive spending and trading away over 20 prospects that were once top 20 was the writing on the wall.

JH was never a year-after-year big spender. He often cut back after winning seasons. The expectation that "because he can spend more, he will" was not supported by any evidence, and we have seen that happen in recent years.

I never expected the "cliff" to be more than 1-2 years long. I'm not happy about this coming true, and this became like the cliffs at Acapulco. Dive after dive!

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The specific projection that was weird was "no Sox player would reach 20 HR." 

They currently have 3 guys that could probably get there and that's with Roman Anthony on a season long IL. 

Yes, 87 players were projected to hit 20, but no Sox players- not even Contreras (19) Abreu (18) and Story (17)

They projected Ceddanne with 16, Duran & Roman with 15 and Mayer/Narvaez with 10. Durbin with 9.

Doubling current HR totals would be...

32 Contreras

24 Duran

20 Abreu (close)

14 Ceddanne (under projections)

12 Durbin

0 Story & Roman (under)

 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

FWIW i know you said Dbacks wanted both Tolle and Early I heard Milliken yesterday say the Dbacks wanted Mayer & Early in the trade for Marte…. Not both young lefty SP’s. So there’s that. Marte should be on Red Sox. 

It was just a few episodes of Section 10 ago where Jared said it was Early AND Tolle not Mayer. 🤷‍♂️

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs had the Sox projected with the 10th best team WAR.

15th best "Batter" WAR, which includes defense.

1st in Pitching projected WAR.

60% chance to make playoffs (85-77 season)

Player OPS projected rankings:

35 Anthony .803

52 Abreu .788

60 Contreras .785

67 Casas .782 (WOW!)

89 Yoshida .768

104 Duran .762

120 Romy .755

Going by league averages, we should have 2 batters in the top 60- we had 3.

We should have 3 batters in the top 90- we had 5.

We should have 4 batters in the top 120- we had 7.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It was just a few episodes of Section 10 ago where Jared said it was Early AND Tolle not Mayer. 🤷‍♂️

Was that ever confirmed?

I heard Mayer plus one from Early or Tolle, but I can't find any proof of that, either.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Was that ever confirmed?

I heard Mayer plus one from Early or Tolle, but I can't find any proof of that, either.

Who is going to confirm it? There was a report from AZ that said they didn't like Mayer. That's about it.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who is going to confirm it? There was a report from AZ that said they didn't like Mayer. That's about it.

AI cites Sports Illustrated when providing this...

The Arizona Diamondbacks were heavily linked to Boston Red Sox shortstop Marcelo Mayer during offseason trade talks centered around Ketel Marte. However, the Diamondbacks wanted Mayer included in the return package, which the Red Sox refused, and Arizona ultimately removed Marte from the trade market entirely

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

AI cites Sports Illustrated when providing this...

The Arizona Diamondbacks were heavily linked to Boston Red Sox shortstop Marcelo Mayer during offseason trade talks centered around Ketel Marte. However, the Diamondbacks wanted Mayer included in the return package, which the Red Sox refused, and Arizona ultimately removed Marte from the trade market entirely

That means nothing to me. It's not 1983 anymore. Nobody cares about Sports Illustrated. Using AI as a crutch is hilarious to me. 

Do whatever research you feel like. Jared Carrabis said on Section 10 that the AZ wanted Tolle and Early and had no interest in Mayer. He got that from people that he heard from that spoke to people within the DBags. 

That's the source I'm going with. I don't care if you like it or not. 

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Against as SP

.607 Suarez

.624 Tolle

.629 Bennett

.705 Gray

.726 Early

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

.818 Crochet (6th in most PAs against)

1.057 Bello (5th in most PAs Against)

_____________________

_____________________

As RP (50+ PAs Against)

.480 Moran

.484 Bello

.580 Coulombe

.596 Chapman

.614 Kelly

.633 Samaniego (4 of the top 6 are at AAA, now.)

.639 Whitlock

.663 Guerrero

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

.725 Weissert (.468 last 4 weeks)

.764 Watson (.593 last 4 weeks)

.916 Slaten

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That means nothing to me. It's not 1983 anymore. Nobody cares about Sports Illustrated. Using AI as a crutch is hilarious to me. 

Do whatever research you feel like. Jared Carrabis said on Section 10 that the AZ wanted Tolle and Early a"nd had no interest in Mayer. He got that from people that he heard from that spoke to people within the DBags. 

That's the source I'm going with. I don't care if you like it or not. 

"A crutch" - too funny.

I just cited what I googled. There was a lot of talk about AZ wanting Mayer not Duran. I'm not sure why Section 10 talk trumps all others and is your "crutch."

Here is a non AI google I found:

 

Intel from The Boston Globe's Alex Speier suggests that the Arizona Diamondbacks were trying to pry Marcelo Mayer away from the Boston Red Sox, along with either Payton Tolle or Connelly Early. But Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow wasn't having it.

According to Speier, Mayer and Tolle/Early emerged as demands from Arizona during Ketel Marte trade negotiations. Breslow was reportedly willing to give the D-Backs a worthy return of stud prospect Franklin Arias and one of either Tolle or Early. When Arizona ratcheted up their ask by involving Mayer, Breslow reportedly lost interest.

BTW, Carrabis said this...

" I get that it was talked about during the winter, but in June?"

[Old Red]

On the airwaves yesterday one of my favorite subjects was being subjected, and was roasted, and toasted. Yes I’m talking the Red Sox suspects BIG 3 KC, little Anthony, and Mayer. To sum it up you have sucks, can’t play, and won’t play, and how the Red Sox brass had patted themselves on the back so much when they were coming up they separated their shoulders doing it.They were portrayed as shiny hood ornaments, and now they don’t seem as shiny.