A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, if it was going to be made at all, it probably did.  Sale was coming of 4 years of barely pitching and hadn’t been elite Sale for 6 years.  Another early season injury and he was untradable again.  Grissom was a young promising player who didn’t pan out.  But he was also the only time Boston got offered anything even remotely valuable for the oft-injured pitcher.  It didn’t work out, but it was at least understandable.  Unlike dealing Priester and acquiring May, both moves of which made zero sense…

I was talking about when Sale was resigned, and not when he was traded.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Connelly Early for Matt Shaw?  Shaw has certainly shown he can hit and is a great defensive infielder blocked everywhere in Chicago.  And the Cubs desperately need SP.   

Would you pull that trigger?

No. You lost me at "can hit" and "great fielder"

I want "great hitter" 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

No. You lost me at "can hit" and "great fielder"

I want "great hitter" 

At 2b?  Limited options there.

Upgrade 2b.  Get a thumper for DH.. 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They would have been better off with the same budgets if they:

a) Kept Betts

b) Let Sale and Bogaerts walk

c) Hired a CBO who made better moves

 

Could be, but who knows. It's hard for any GM to make up for all the players lost and aging stars with big contracts to rebuild when spending less and less each winter.

Maybe deadline moves could have swung some seasons, but the "new GM" would have had to have great winters, year after year. Hard to do on peanuts.

[UtahSox]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

Connelly Early for Matt Shaw?  Shaw has certainly shown he can hit and is a great defensive infielder blocked everywhere in Chicago.  And the Cubs desperately need SP.   

Would you pull that trigger?

Yes I think he is really good defender as well. Plus there are pitching FA available next year virtually no bats

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

At 2b?  Limited options there.

Upgrade 2b.  Get a thumper for DH.. 

That seems an easier path.

Abrams at SS or Torres at 2B could help, if no great bat DH can be added.

Who are you thinking of as that DH?

 This assumes we will be buyers: would even Abrams and ______ (DH/LF) be enough?

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Yes I think he is really good defender as well. Plus there are pitching FA available next year virtually no bats

Matt Shaw turns 25 this November and has a 100 OPS+ to start his career (550 PAs)

That sure beats....

88 OPS+ from Durbin at age 26 and 728 career PAs

76 OPS+ from Mayer at age 23.5 and 336 PAs.

We'd need to see vast improvement for Shaw to be called even a "good" hitter. Do we really need more speculative value added?

[UtahSox]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Matt Shaw turns 25 this November and has a 100 OPS+ to start his career (550 PAs)

That sure beats....

88 OPS+ from Durbin at age 26 and 728 career PAs

76 OPS+ from Mayer at age 23.5 and 336 PAs.

We'd need to see vast improvement for Shaw to be called even a "good" hitter. Do we really need more speculative value added?

Shaw would be a great to elite get for RS. Cubs probably do the deal for Sonny Gray+ Early.

2027 SP- Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Oviedo, Kutter ability to add someone else if injuries happen. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Could be, but who knows. It's hard for any GM to make up for all the players lost and aging stars with big contracts to rebuild when spending less and less each winter.

Maybe deadline moves could have swung some seasons, but the "new GM" would have had to have great winters, year after year. Hard to do on peanuts.

Same old speculations on how the new GM’S had to work under such brutal conditions. Here’s another speculation that a better GM could have done a better job.

[Bellhorn04]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Could be, but who knows. It's hard for any GM to make up for all the players lost and aging stars with big contracts to rebuild when spending less and less each winter.

Maybe deadline moves could have swung some seasons, but the "new GM" would have had to have great winters, year after year. Hard to do on peanuts.

Our payrolls weren't really peanuts.  They were disappointing to us as demanding Sox fans, but they weren't peanuts.  Story and Yoshida are obvious examples of spending badly. 

[notin]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Matt Shaw turns 25 this November and has a 100 OPS+ to start his career (550 PAs)

That sure beats....

88 OPS+ from Durbin at age 26 and 728 career PAs

76 OPS+ from Mayer at age 23.5 and 336 PAs.

We'd need to see vast improvement for Shaw to be called even a "good" hitter. Do we really need more speculative value added?

He started off slowly last year, but was over .900 in the second half.  This year Hes largely been a utility infielder/outfielder with sporadic playing time.  But he is a hitter…

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Shaw would be a great to elite get for RS. Cubs probably do the deal for Sonny Gray+ Early.

2027 SP- Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Oviedo, Kutter ability to add someone else if injuries happen. 

I like Shaw a lot and suggested several trade combos, last winter.

I think he will be a much better hitter than his first 550 PAs have shown. I just worry about counting on more speculative value rather than proven value.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Our payrolls weren't really peanuts.  They were disappointing to us as demanding Sox fans, but they weren't peanuts.  Story and Yoshida are obvious examples of spending badly. 

The payrolls from 2020 to 2021 were mostly past contracts with very little new spending.

DD thrived on good to great trades, but he also had some significant new spending numbers most years, but that stopped in 2019, when he was even nearly forced to trade Betts, himself. His last big expenditures were the extensions to Sale and Bogey.

The largest Sox FA signings since JD in 2018 and before Bregman (25) and Suarez (26) were:

$140M/6 Story in 2022

$90M/5 Yoshida in 2023

Previous signings and extensions:

$217M/7 Price 2016

$142M/7 Crawford 2011

$110M/5 JD 2018

$95M/5 Pablito 2015

$88M/4 HRam 2015

$83M/5 Lackey 2010

$70M/5 Drew 2007

$68M/4 Nate 2019 (kinda like an extension)

Major extensions from 2019 to 2024 were few and far between:

Crochet 2026 and Devers 2024 were significant but long after the Betts trade. ($130M/8 Anthony starting in 2026)

2019 Sale $145/5

2012 AGon $154M/7

2020 Bogey $120M/6 w opt out (signed in 2019)

2015 Porcello $83M/4

Basically from the Sale/Bogey extensions to the Devers extension, new spending and extensions saw an extreme drop off.

No major extensions until 2024 w Devers.

Only Story and Yoshida were major signings from JD in 2018 to Bregman 2025 (1 year) and Suarez 2026.

That makes it hard for any GM to improve an aging team.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

The payrolls from 2020 to 2021 were mostly past contracts with very little new spending.

DD thrived on good to great trades, but he also had some significant new spending numbers most years, but that stopped in 2019, when he was even nearly forced to trade Betts, himself. His last big expenditures were the extensions to Sale and Bogey.

The largest Sox FA signings since JD in 2018 and before Bregman (25) and Suarez (26) were:

$140M/6 Story in 2022

$90M/5 Yoshida in 2023

Previous signings and extensions:

$217M/7 Price 2016

$142M/7 Crawford 2011

$110M/5 JD 2018

$95M/5 Pablito 2015

$88M/4 HRam 2015

$83M/5 Lackey 2010

$70M/5 Drew 2007

$68M/4 Nate 2019 (kinda like an extension)

Major extensions from 2019 to 2024 were few and far between:

Crochet 2026 and Devers 2024 were significant but long after the Betts trade. ($130M/8 Anthony starting in 2026)

2019 Sale $145/5

2012 AGon $154M/7

2020 Bogey $120M/6 w opt out (signed in 2019)

2015 Porcello $83M/4

Basically from the Sale/Bogey extensions to the Devers extension, new spending and extensions saw an extreme drop off.

No major extensions until 2024 w Devers.

Only Story and Yoshida were major signings from JD in 2018 to Bregman 2025 (1 year) and Suarez 2026.

That makes it hard for any GM to improve an aging team.

Especially bad, and inexperienced ones.

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The payrolls from 2020 to 2021 were mostly past contracts with very little new spending.

DD thrived on good to great trades, but he also had some significant new spending numbers most years, but that stopped in 2019, when he was even nearly forced to trade Betts, himself. His last big expenditures were the extensions to Sale and Bogey.

The largest Sox FA signings since JD in 2018 and before Bregman (25) and Suarez (26) were:

$140M/6 Story in 2022

$90M/5 Yoshida in 2023

Previous signings and extensions:

$217M/7 Price 2016

$142M/7 Crawford 2011

$110M/5 JD 2018

$95M/5 Pablito 2015

$88M/4 HRam 2015

$83M/5 Lackey 2010

$70M/5 Drew 2007

$68M/4 Nate 2019 (kinda like an extension)

Major extensions from 2019 to 2024 were few and far between:

Crochet 2026 and Devers 2024 were significant but long after the Betts trade. ($130M/8 Anthony starting in 2026)

2019 Sale $145/5

2012 AGon $154M/7

2020 Bogey $120M/6 w opt out (signed in 2019)

2015 Porcello $83M/4

Basically from the Sale/Bogey extensions to the Devers extension, new spending and extensions saw an extreme drop off.

No major extensions until 2024 w Devers.

Only Story and Yoshida were major signings from JD in 2018 to Bregman 2025 (1 year) and Suarez 2026.

That makes it hard for any GM to improve an aging team.

To me it feels like you're being an apologist.  Which is fine, I've been an apologist at times too.  

I place zero blame on Bloom for 2020 and obviously he did pretty well in 2021.  Starting with 2022 things have been pretty crappy.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I like Shaw a lot and suggested several trade combos, last winter.

I think he will be a much better hitter than his first 550 PAs have shown. I just worry about counting on more speculative value rather than proven value.

Proven value like Story?

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To me it feels like you're being an apologist.  Which is fine, I've been an apologist at times too.  

I place zero blame on Bloom for 2020 and obviously he did pretty well in 2021.  Starting with 2022 things have been pretty crappy.

I think Bloom was a good talent evaluator, but a timid (to be kind) decision maker.  His deadline waffling effectively wasted two seasons…

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To me it feels like you're being an apologist.  Which is fine, I've been an apologist at times too.  

I place zero blame on Bloom for 2020 and obviously he did pretty well in 2021.  Starting with 2022 things have been pretty crappy.

He’s never an apologist for JH, Bloom, or Breslow. Just ask him. He denies it every time he does, which is more often than not. 🤫

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

At 2b?  Limited options there.

Upgrade 2b.  Get a thumper for DH.. 

who is these big thumper DH’s you all talk about like they magically aren’t in demand for other teams?
 

Alonso? Contract too long remember 

schwarber? Too old

Eugenio Suarez? Strikes out too much? 
 

sub 30 yr old big thumping bats at DH & 3b just start growing on trees?? 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

Evaluation of young players is tough ... and sometimes confusing.

In 23 games at the MLB level, 20-year-old Colt Emerson has posted a 145 OPS+ (144 wRC+) in 84 plate appearances for 1.0 bWAR (0.8 fWAR). Emerson's six home runs would be on pace for 42 homers over a 162-game season.

Nevertheless, Emerson's Baseball Savant page is highly discouraging for the small sample:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/colt-emerson-806068?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

The Red Sox will likely see Emerson this weekend in Seattle.

i'll trade you Marshmello Mayer for Emerson straight up. deal?

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

No. You lost me at "can hit" and "great fielder"

I want "great hitter" 

agreed. he strikes me as just another version of Romy/Monostereo/Durbin/etc.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

who is these big thumper DH’s you all talk about like they magically aren’t in demand for other teams?
 

Alonso? Contract too long remember 

schwarber? Too old

Eugenio Suarez? Strikes out too much? 
 

sub 30 yr old big thumping bats at DH & 3b just start growing on trees?? 

Who says they aren't in demand? Sox just need to act like a big market club. 

DFA Masa. Replace him with a real bat. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who says they aren't in demand? Sox just need to act like a big market club. 

DFA Masa. Replace him with a real bat. 

Not that Yoshida qualifies, but Boston does give up too early on some players.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vaughn-grissom-687093?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

[notin]

26 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

who is these big thumper DH’s you all talk about like they magically aren’t in demand for other teams?
 

Alonso? Contract too long remember 

schwarber? Too old

Eugenio Suarez? Strikes out too much? 
 

sub 30 yr old big thumping bats at DH & 3b just start growing on trees?? 

The Sox did get Contreras instead of Alonso.  Getting both would have meant benching either Anthony or Duran…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

agreed. he strikes me as just another version of Romy/Monostereo/Durbin/etc.

There are big differences between all 3 of those players.  Four if you count Shaw.

Might as well say we don’t want Pete Alonso because he’s just another Steve Pearce…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Not that Yoshida qualifies, but Boston does give up too early on some players.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vaughn-grissom-687093?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

They had him in the org for 2 years and had no interest in keeping him for whatever reason. Not sure how they are evaluating the offensive players currently. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox did get Contreras instead of Alonso.  Getting both would have meant benching either Anthony or Duran…

They were already planning on benching somebody since they had Anthony/Masa/Duran for 2 spots. Adding Alonso would have forced the issue for a real move. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To me it feels like you're being an apologist.  Which is fine, I've been an apologist at times too.  

I place zero blame on Bloom for 2020 and obviously he did pretty well in 2021.  Starting with 2022 things have been pretty crappy.

The new spending was seriously curtailed from Bogey/Sale to the Devers extension in 2024. He was quickly traded, so even that one could not be counted, and the Bregman signing was one year, so one could argue 2020 to 2026 (Suarez) with just 2 semi-major signings and no major extensions. Those are facts not apologies.

I find it funny that I am accused of apologizing for JH, when I am highlighting his massive cutbacks to new spending. I can see how this can be viewed as an apology for the GM, as I am arguing their spending levels were vastly different from Theo, Ben & DD's, but it can't also be apologizing for JH, too.

To me, it's not impossible to build a winner withing the new spending budgets the Sox had from 2019 to 2024 (Devers) 2025 (Bregman) or 2026 (Suarez). Bloom failed, and Brez looked like he was turning it around and made 3 good major additions last winter, but the results are what they are, and there is no apology that can cover this mess.

Do you really think had DD stayed at the helm and extended Betts, we'd have had significantly more success under the same budgets?

Remember, had we extended Betts, we'd have spent less on "new spending" by $30M a year, which in some early years would have meant needing to trade some salaries to meet the budgets. It's easy to pick and choose, in hindsight, who we could have traded and added, and I don't doubt some GM or DD could/might have done better, but it's a stretch to think we'd win a ring from 2020-2026.

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox did get Contreras instead of Alonso.  Getting both would have meant benching either Anthony or Duran…

Or playing Cedanne at infield or playing Contreras at Catcher or knowing that there will be an injury (and there was)....Not saying that we should have gotten both but this mentality of we need a bat that fits into these positions isnt working because there isnt a great supply of bats that are good enough whom we could acquire....So we (or at least I) dont want to start crossing guys off the list because they would require someone to move positions.

Guys move around positionally every year.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

The new spending was seriously curtailed from Bogey/Sale to the Devers extension in 2024. He was quickly traded, so even that one could not be counted, and the Bregman signing was one year, so one could argue 2020 to 2026 (Suarez) with just 2 semi-major signings and no major extensions. Those are facts not apologies.

I find it funny that I am accused of apologizing for JH, when I am highlighting his massive cutbacks to new spending. I can see how this can be viewed as an apology for the GM, as I am arguing their spending levels were vastly different from Theo, Ben & DD's, but it can't also be apologizing for JH, too.

To me, it's not impossible to build a winner withing the new spending budgets the Sox had from 2019 to 2024 (Devers) 2025 (Bregman) or 2026 (Suarez). Bloom failed, and Brez looked like he was turning it around and made 3 good major additions last winter, but the results are what they are, and there is no apology that can cover this mess.

Do you really think had DD stayed at the helm and extended Betts, we'd have had significantly more success under the same budgets?

Remember, had we extended Betts, we'd have spent less on "new spending" by $30M a year, which in some early years would have meant needing to trade some salaries to meet the budgets. It's easy to pick and choose, in hindsight, who we could have traded and added, and I don't doubt some GM or DD could/might have done better, but it's a stretch to think we'd win a ring from 2020-2026.

brslow made one good addition last year (Contreras).  It was a D- offeseason.