A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, if it was going to be made at all, it probably did.  Sale was coming of 4 years of barely pitching and hadn’t been elite Sale for 6 years.  Another early season injury and he was untradable again.  Grissom was a young promising player who didn’t pan out.  But he was also the only time Boston got offered anything even remotely valuable for the oft-injured pitcher.  It didn’t work out, but it was at least understandable.  Unlike dealing Priester and acquiring May, both moves of which made zero sense…

I was talking about when Sale was resigned, and not when he was traded.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Connelly Early for Matt Shaw?  Shaw has certainly shown he can hit and is a great defensive infielder blocked everywhere in Chicago.  And the Cubs desperately need SP.   

Would you pull that trigger?

No. You lost me at "can hit" and "great fielder"

I want "great hitter" 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

No. You lost me at "can hit" and "great fielder"

I want "great hitter" 

At 2b?  Limited options there.

Upgrade 2b.  Get a thumper for DH.. 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They would have been better off with the same budgets if they:

a) Kept Betts

b) Let Sale and Bogaerts walk

c) Hired a CBO who made better moves

 

Could be, but who knows. It's hard for any GM to make up for all the players lost and aging stars with big contracts to rebuild when spending less and less each winter.

Maybe deadline moves could have swung some seasons, but the "new GM" would have had to have great winters, year after year. Hard to do on peanuts.

[UtahSox]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

Connelly Early for Matt Shaw?  Shaw has certainly shown he can hit and is a great defensive infielder blocked everywhere in Chicago.  And the Cubs desperately need SP.   

Would you pull that trigger?

Yes I think he is really good defender as well. Plus there are pitching FA available next year virtually no bats

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

At 2b?  Limited options there.

Upgrade 2b.  Get a thumper for DH.. 

That seems an easier path.

Abrams at SS or Torres at 2B could help, if no great bat DH can be added.

Who are you thinking of as that DH?

 This assumes we will be buyers: would even Abrams and ______ (DH/LF) be enough?

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Yes I think he is really good defender as well. Plus there are pitching FA available next year virtually no bats

Matt Shaw turns 25 this November and has a 100 OPS+ to start his career (550 PAs)

That sure beats....

88 OPS+ from Durbin at age 26 and 728 career PAs

76 OPS+ from Mayer at age 23.5 and 336 PAs.

We'd need to see vast improvement for Shaw to be called even a "good" hitter. Do we really need more speculative value added?

[UtahSox]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Matt Shaw turns 25 this November and has a 100 OPS+ to start his career (550 PAs)

That sure beats....

88 OPS+ from Durbin at age 26 and 728 career PAs

76 OPS+ from Mayer at age 23.5 and 336 PAs.

We'd need to see vast improvement for Shaw to be called even a "good" hitter. Do we really need more speculative value added?

Shaw would be a great to elite get for RS. Cubs probably do the deal for Sonny Gray+ Early.

2027 SP- Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Oviedo, Kutter ability to add someone else if injuries happen. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Could be, but who knows. It's hard for any GM to make up for all the players lost and aging stars with big contracts to rebuild when spending less and less each winter.

Maybe deadline moves could have swung some seasons, but the "new GM" would have had to have great winters, year after year. Hard to do on peanuts.

Same old speculations on how the new GM’S had to work under such brutal conditions. Here’s another speculation that a better GM could have done a better job.

[Bellhorn04]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Could be, but who knows. It's hard for any GM to make up for all the players lost and aging stars with big contracts to rebuild when spending less and less each winter.

Maybe deadline moves could have swung some seasons, but the "new GM" would have had to have great winters, year after year. Hard to do on peanuts.

Our payrolls weren't really peanuts.  They were disappointing to us as demanding Sox fans, but they weren't peanuts.  Story and Yoshida are obvious examples of spending badly. 

[notin]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Matt Shaw turns 25 this November and has a 100 OPS+ to start his career (550 PAs)

That sure beats....

88 OPS+ from Durbin at age 26 and 728 career PAs

76 OPS+ from Mayer at age 23.5 and 336 PAs.

We'd need to see vast improvement for Shaw to be called even a "good" hitter. Do we really need more speculative value added?

He started off slowly last year, but was over .900 in the second half.  This year Hes largely been a utility infielder/outfielder with sporadic playing time.  But he is a hitter…

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Shaw would be a great to elite get for RS. Cubs probably do the deal for Sonny Gray+ Early.

2027 SP- Crochet, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Oviedo, Kutter ability to add someone else if injuries happen. 

I like Shaw a lot and suggested several trade combos, last winter.

I think he will be a much better hitter than his first 550 PAs have shown. I just worry about counting on more speculative value rather than proven value.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Our payrolls weren't really peanuts.  They were disappointing to us as demanding Sox fans, but they weren't peanuts.  Story and Yoshida are obvious examples of spending badly. 

The payrolls from 2020 to 2021 were mostly past contracts with very little new spending.

DD thrived on good to great trades, but he also had some significant new spending numbers most years, but that stopped in 2019, when he was even nearly forced to trade Betts, himself. His last big expenditures were the extensions to Sale and Bogey.

The largest Sox FA signings since JD in 2018 and before Bregman (25) and Suarez (26) were:

$140M/6 Story in 2022

$90M/5 Yoshida in 2023

Previous signings and extensions:

$217M/7 Price 2016

$142M/7 Crawford 2011

$110M/5 JD 2018

$95M/5 Pablito 2015

$88M/4 HRam 2015

$83M/5 Lackey 2010

$70M/5 Drew 2007

$68M/4 Nate 2019 (kinda like an extension)

Major extensions from 2019 to 2024 were few and far between:

Crochet 2026 and Devers 2024 were significant but long after the Betts trade. ($130M/8 Anthony starting in 2026)

2019 Sale $145/5

2012 AGon $154M/7

2020 Bogey $120M/6 w opt out (signed in 2019)

2015 Porcello $83M/4

Basically from the Sale/Bogey extensions to the Devers extension, new spending and extensions saw an extreme drop off.

No major extensions until 2024 w Devers.

Only Story and Yoshida were major signings from JD in 2018 to Bregman 2025 (1 year) and Suarez 2026.

That makes it hard for any GM to improve an aging team.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

The payrolls from 2020 to 2021 were mostly past contracts with very little new spending.

DD thrived on good to great trades, but he also had some significant new spending numbers most years, but that stopped in 2019, when he was even nearly forced to trade Betts, himself. His last big expenditures were the extensions to Sale and Bogey.

The largest Sox FA signings since JD in 2018 and before Bregman (25) and Suarez (26) were:

$140M/6 Story in 2022

$90M/5 Yoshida in 2023

Previous signings and extensions:

$217M/7 Price 2016

$142M/7 Crawford 2011

$110M/5 JD 2018

$95M/5 Pablito 2015

$88M/4 HRam 2015

$83M/5 Lackey 2010

$70M/5 Drew 2007

$68M/4 Nate 2019 (kinda like an extension)

Major extensions from 2019 to 2024 were few and far between:

Crochet 2026 and Devers 2024 were significant but long after the Betts trade. ($130M/8 Anthony starting in 2026)

2019 Sale $145/5

2012 AGon $154M/7

2020 Bogey $120M/6 w opt out (signed in 2019)

2015 Porcello $83M/4

Basically from the Sale/Bogey extensions to the Devers extension, new spending and extensions saw an extreme drop off.

No major extensions until 2024 w Devers.

Only Story and Yoshida were major signings from JD in 2018 to Bregman 2025 (1 year) and Suarez 2026.

That makes it hard for any GM to improve an aging team.

Especially bad, and inexperienced ones.

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The payrolls from 2020 to 2021 were mostly past contracts with very little new spending.

DD thrived on good to great trades, but he also had some significant new spending numbers most years, but that stopped in 2019, when he was even nearly forced to trade Betts, himself. His last big expenditures were the extensions to Sale and Bogey.

The largest Sox FA signings since JD in 2018 and before Bregman (25) and Suarez (26) were:

$140M/6 Story in 2022

$90M/5 Yoshida in 2023

Previous signings and extensions:

$217M/7 Price 2016

$142M/7 Crawford 2011

$110M/5 JD 2018

$95M/5 Pablito 2015

$88M/4 HRam 2015

$83M/5 Lackey 2010

$70M/5 Drew 2007

$68M/4 Nate 2019 (kinda like an extension)

Major extensions from 2019 to 2024 were few and far between:

Crochet 2026 and Devers 2024 were significant but long after the Betts trade. ($130M/8 Anthony starting in 2026)

2019 Sale $145/5

2012 AGon $154M/7

2020 Bogey $120M/6 w opt out (signed in 2019)

2015 Porcello $83M/4

Basically from the Sale/Bogey extensions to the Devers extension, new spending and extensions saw an extreme drop off.

No major extensions until 2024 w Devers.

Only Story and Yoshida were major signings from JD in 2018 to Bregman 2025 (1 year) and Suarez 2026.

That makes it hard for any GM to improve an aging team.

To me it feels like you're being an apologist.  Which is fine, I've been an apologist at times too.  

I place zero blame on Bloom for 2020 and obviously he did pretty well in 2021.  Starting with 2022 things have been pretty crappy.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I like Shaw a lot and suggested several trade combos, last winter.

I think he will be a much better hitter than his first 550 PAs have shown. I just worry about counting on more speculative value rather than proven value.

Proven value like Story?

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To me it feels like you're being an apologist.  Which is fine, I've been an apologist at times too.  

I place zero blame on Bloom for 2020 and obviously he did pretty well in 2021.  Starting with 2022 things have been pretty crappy.

I think Bloom was a good talent evaluator, but a timid (to be kind) decision maker.  His deadline waffling effectively wasted two seasons…