A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

21 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I have never blamed management for the loss of Betts.  LA was always going to outbid us and JH was tired of having the highest payroll in MLB, which they had in 2019 when they didn't even make the playoffs.  Thus DD was let go and in came CB from the Rays system.  

Right now the Rays are once again playing great baseball with a ridiculously low payroll, forced on them by having the worst fan base in MLB history.  They hate the Trop and players probably do too.  

And the Sox payroll continues to be mid-range (12th in MLB), which means Breslow can't count on thel support provided to DD and his predecessors.  

 

LA would not have had a chance to outbid us if we signed Betts to an extension, you do realize that?

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It seems funny that the anti-analytics people want Theo back.

Not funny at all. Theo wasn’t all Geek, and Nerd. He actually talked to people.🙈

[Bellhorn04]

21 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Meh,  Mookie just went to a better team with a smarter CBO who also had more money.  

In 6 seasons with the Sox Betts cumulative WAR was 46.  In his first 6 seasons with the Dodgers it was 32--and for a whole bunch more money.  

 

And in those 6 seasons the Dodgers have 3 titles.  And a 5.33 WAR is worth over 40 million.  Betts's AAV is 30.4 million.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It seems funny that the anti-analytics people want Theo back.

But Hunter Dobbins dad said something!!! You know, the guy who lied about being drafted twice by the Yankees. Let's listen to that guy! 

The internal rift is blowing UP! 

What does Lance Dobbins have to do with an internal rift? 

Don't ask that kind of question! 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

LA would not have had a chance to outbid us if we signed Betts to an extension, you do realize that?

Interesting theory!

[jad]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And in those 6 seasons the Dodgers have 3 titles.  And a 5.33 WAR is worth over 40 million.  Betts's AAV is 30.4 million.

Not to mention the fact that many of us like watching Betts play.  We like seeing other humans play--human beings like Bogey and Devers.   We don't watch numbers:   dWAR or xWAR or fangraph b.s. or Driveline statistics ...  that's not why we watch.  We don't go to concerts because one group is objectively 'better' than another.  That was a point one of the greatest coaches ever insisted on:  Popovich always said that his players were human beings and you had to treat and judge them that way.   They don't teach that at Yale.

[notin]

36 minutes ago, jad said:

Not to mention the fact that many of us like watching Betts play.  We like seeing other humans play--human beings like Bogey and Devers.   We don't watch numbers:   dWAR or xWAR or fangraph b.s. or Driveline statistics ...  that's not why we watch.  We don't go to concerts because one group is objectively 'better' than another.  That was a point one of the greatest coaches ever insisted on:  Popovich always said that his players were human beings and you had to treat and judge them that way.   They don't teach that at Yale.

Mookie wasn’t traded due to advanced mathematical analysis; he was traded because he wanted more money than Boston was willing to offer.

Had Boston used his value in WAR and determined his worth that way, they would have signed him .  But thats clearly not what they did…

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

But Hunter Dobbins dad said something!!! You know, the guy who lied about being drafted twice by the Yankees. Let's listen to that guy! 

The internal rift is blowing UP! 

What does Lance Dobbins have to do with an internal rift? 

Don't ask that kind of question! 

We could really use a 4.50 pitcher in 8 IP.

I actually like Dobbins and thought Clarke could be good someday, too, but we have to give to get and Gray + Contreras are two of the only bright spots on the team.

Like we'd be winning now with DHam, Meidroth, Dobbins and Harrison, but somehow Harrison and DEVERS!

[moonslav59]

This a big stretch for the Sox, if they are to have legitimate hopes of making a run at the playoffs, but more importantly to give any hope they can advance, even if the sneak in with a near .500 record.

I'm not predicting a strong stretch, but one is needed.

3 v BAL

3 @ NYY

3 @ TBR

day off

3 v TEX

3 v TOR

3 @ SEA

3 @ COL

4 v NYY

Almost every series is vs a team ahead of us in the playoff hunt. It's time to start winning series after series and maybe even get a sweep here and there.

It could also be the time we all get convince it's a summer to sell.

[jad]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Mookie wasn’t traded due to advanced mathematical analysis; he was traded because he wanted more money than Boston was willing to offer.

Had Boston used his value in WAR and determined his worth that way, they would have signed him .  But thats clearly not what they did…

You're right:  not wanting to pay an employee market value is not complicated math, it's simple math by an organization that didn't give a f*ck what the fans (their custiomers) thought.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, jad said:

You're right:  not wanting to pay an employee market value is not complicated math, it's simple math by an organization that didn't give a f*ck what the fans (their custiomers) thought.

While I agree, they did spend a higher AAV on Sale & Nate, instead.

Now, fans would have been pissed had they kept Betts and let Sale & Nate walk, followed by the low budgets over the next 5 years, but not as much, IMO.

[mvp 78]

Per Bradford, the Sox are practicing ABS challenges today. I guess since they are last in the league in total challenges, it's about time.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

FWIW....someone posted this quoting Hunter Dobbins dad.

 

"Placing 100% of the pitching struggles"?  Our rotation has been so good this month that we can't even blame our record on losing one of the best SPs in baseball.

"Meanwhile, Dobbins ...immediately found success with the Cardinals"?  Dobbins had a 4.13/3.87 ERA/FIP with the Red Sox and a 4.50/4.58 with the Cardinals.  Has the world officially agreed to abandon numerics?

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

But Hunter Dobbins dad said something!!! You know, the guy who lied about being drafted twice by the Yankees. Let's listen to that guy! 

The internal rift is blowing UP! 

What does Lance Dobbins have to do with an internal rift? 

Don't ask that kind of question! 

so...you don't think ANY of what he said has any merit?

he defends Bailey but blasts the nerds and Driveline. seems like a lot of folks have been doing this lately.

 

[notin]

4 hours ago, jad said:

You're right:  not wanting to pay an employee market value is not complicated math, it's simple math by an organization that didn't give a f*ck what the fans (their custiomers) thought.

Right.  But nothing to flu with analytics.  Basically they had a max figure and they went that high.  According to Zack Scott, their AAV was very close to the Dodgers’ offer, but they were two years shorter…

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

But Hunter Dobbins dad said something!!! You know, the guy who lied about being drafted twice by the Yankees. Let's listen to that guy! 

The internal rift is blowing UP! 

What does Lance Dobbins have to do with an internal rift? 

Don't ask that kind of question! 

It sounds like one more tweet designed to draw attention.  I doubt that even a single person talks to Lance Dobbins, or even knows who he is.  And I never like when family members make themselves part of the game,

[iortiz]

On 5/30/2026 at 3:39 PM, notin said:

Chase Meidroth - OPS+ of 90

Kristian Campbell - OPS+ of 89

Once again, the monster is always greener, I guess…

 

Are those Campbell’s numbers in AAA? If so not sure what you are trying to do here. 

Today, Meidroth is 106+ at MLB level pal and getting on base a lot. 
 

BTW Harrison is having a CY season. 
 

let’s face it. We are run by clowns. 

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Per Bradford, the Sox are practicing ABS challenges today. I guess since they are last in the league in total challenges, it's about time.

Insane that they wait until June to develop a strategy.

[iortiz]

On 5/30/2026 at 9:26 PM, illinoisredsox said:

You certainly are the master of 20-20 hindsight.

The Crochet trade was a failure?  Seriously?  Yeah, I know he's hurt right now.   That doesn't change the fact that the trade got us an ace.  You don't get that trading scraps.

What I’m saying is that we traded the wrong youngsters. 

[iortiz]

On 5/30/2026 at 9:49 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think he remembers we traded Meidroth for Durbin.

Mayer and Campbell should have been the pieces. 

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Today, Meidroth is 106+ at MLB level pal and getting on base a lot. 

If you don't like Crochet, I have no idea how to process that.

[iortiz]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

If you don't like Crochet, I have no idea how to process that.

I don’t think you are following me. What I’m saying is that we should have sent Mayer or/and Campbell.

[iortiz]

On 5/31/2026 at 11:35 AM, a700hitter said:

The Campbell contract was insanely stupid.

And looking what we got from Devers and that is working out more than well in MIL is when you ask yourself why hasn’t Breslow been fired?

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, iortiz said:

On 5/30/2026 at 11:49 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think he remembers we traded Meidroth for Durbin.

Mayer and Campbell should have been the pieces. 

Don't take this personally, but if CWS asked for Meidroth, and you countered with Mayer and KC onstead of Meidroth, that's kind of insane.  But I'd love to have heard that conversation.

"We would like Meidroth"

"No, but would you accept the #4 and #14 prospect in all of baseball instead?"

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, iortiz said:

I don’t think you are following me. What I’m saying is that we should have sent Mayer or/and Campbell.

Sending them the #4 and #14 prospects in BB instead of sending someone maybe ranked #200 is the single craziest thing I have ever heard of.  Here is what the offer then becomes:

• KC #4
• Mayer #14
• Teel #25
• Montgomery #66

And that doesn't strike you as a bit of an overpay?

[iortiz]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Don't take this personally, but if CWS asked for Meidroth, and you countered with Mayer and KC onstead of Meidroth, that's kind of insane.  But I'd love to have heard that conversation.

"We would like Meidroth"

"No, but would you accept the #4 and #14 prospect in all of baseball instead?"

We don’t know for certain what CHW would have accepted but my common sense says that they would have accepted Campbell or Mayer instead of Meidroth. My common sense also says that they didn’t evaluated well their prospects. Mayer and especially Campbell have been a disappointment thus far.  

[illinoisredsox]

19 minutes ago, iortiz said:

What I’m saying is that we traded the wrong youngsters. 

Unless you posted it at the time, it’s pure and worthless 20-20 hindsight.

[iortiz]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Sending them the #4 and #14 prospects in BB instead of sending someone maybe ranked #200 is the single craziest thing I have ever heard of.  Here is what the offer then becomes:

• KC #4
• Mayer #14
• Teel #25
• Montgomery #66

And that doesn't strike you as a bit of an overpay?

Bingo,and this rest my case. They would have accepted KC. Rankings can say whatever they want. What matters is what you see everyday in your system. As I said they evaluated and assessed them wrongly. 

[illinoisredsox]

2 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Bingo,and this rest my case. They would have accepted KC. Rankings can say whatever they want. What matters is what you see everyday in your system. As I said they evaluated and assessed them wrongly. 

Maybe the White Sox had a different and what has turned out so far to be a more correct assessment/ evaluation of KC.

[iortiz]

4 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Unless you posted it at the time, it’s pure and worthless 20-20 hindsight.

What I say or not is meaningless. What is worrisome and speaks volumes is how they are evaluating and projecting their prospects. Meidroth and Harrison look legit in my book, and I don’t need 7 more years to figure it out. Talent is there.