A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

58 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Also so far Fred has been more right with his predictions than most of the others on here.

You cannot take Fred seriously.  You just can't.

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

For decades Sox fans were trained to expect flopping. It became the expectation.

I understand childhood baseball trauma.  But 20+ years of winning WSCs should've cured people of that.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

1-There is no doubt that there are plenty of RS fans unhappy with our record.

2-There is no doubt that henry and the FO are aware of this.

3-There is no doubt that the FO gives 2 seconds of thought about what the average fan thinks are the best moves.  Just think about all the suggestions we've seen in here.  We would have Bregman, Alonso, Marte, and Bichette, instead of Durbin, Contreras, Suarez and Gray.

We'd be on the hook for a billion $$$ worth of contracts and have a worse record than we do now.  Now I have to go and send my SpaceX suggestions to Elon Musk.

I'm not sure why this type of post seems to set off the nay-sayers so much.

Okay, those who screamed for Schwarber can claim we'd be better, but look who else they wanted, instead of the big 3 we got.

Of course, who got us to the point where three nice additions left us far short of being competitive is a valid question and point to make. The blame can be spread our or pin point focused and not be "wrong." We've made some serious mistakes since 2019, and much of it can be attributed to JH & Co, and the limits on spending and certain types of spending that attract or keep the very best of the best.

One can easily point to the "best of the best" and largest contracts signed since 2019 and show the odds are low on striking gold, but that seems to be brushed aside by many. (Note: I include myself in the "many" from time to time.)

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I understand childhood baseball trauma.  But 20+ years of winning WSCs should've cured people of that.

It spoiled us, which isn't a surprise.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

1-There is no doubt that there are plenty of RS fans unhappy with our record.

2-There is no doubt that henry and the FO are aware of this.

3-There is no doubt that the FO gives 2 seconds of thought about what the average fan thinks are the best moves.  Just think about all the suggestions we've seen in here.  We would have Bregman, Alonso, Marte, and Bichette, instead of Durbin, Contreras, Suarez and Gray.

We'd be on the hook for a billion $$$ worth of contracts and have a worse record than we do now.  Now I have to go and send my SpaceX suggestions to Elon Musk.

you need his phone number?

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I understand childhood baseball trauma.  But 20+ years of winning WSCs should've cured people of that.

fans of every organization complain -even the LA Dodgers. i can't believe you'd think otherwise.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

fans of every organization complain -even the LA Dodgers. i can't believe you'd think otherwise.

Fair enough/

[urban cowboy]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The AL is so bad that the CWS and A's are tied for the 4th best record at 23-22.

Two teams are tied for the last WC slot and are 3 games below .500!

SEA (22-25) and TEX (21-24)

Although the Sox have 6 teams to jump over the reach #6, they are just 2 GB the WC.

We still suck, but the league does, too, so maybe we can become the worst team to ever make the playoffs!

Something to play for!

We are -13 in run differential. 5 teams are worse and 9 better in the AL.

We've played 23 games vs teams at .500 or better (9-14.)

The Yanks have played 9, the CWS 17 and Athletics 18.

The Yanks are 1-8

Athletics 7-11

CWS 6-11

As bad as things are, we are not out of it by any stretch. Duran wakes up, Anthony comes back, Mayer figures it out, and durbin can't be this bad. Hell maybe even Casas makes an appearance (okay, I'm reaching now). Pitching is solid. ... Painful as it is, we're not out of it all!

[vegasbob]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It spoiled us, which isn't a surprise.

Spoiled  maybe. Expectant of a competitive team , certainly.

But not the run from 2018 to this current team. 

Here's a question , was the firing of Cora and coaches (x Bailey), a planned thought out event or a spasmodic reaction to an internal power struggle,  not unlike the Devers situation.  

In any event , it was not a strategic move to make the team better.

[MADSTORK]

78 wins was a gift hey boys…

cora was the problem hey boys…

Henry has one card left to play, it’s called TE, make the f’#%#% move!

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Spoiled  maybe. Expectant of a competitive team , certainly.

But not the run from 2018 to this current team. 

Here's a question , was the firing of Cora and coaches (x Bailey), a planned thought out event or a spasmodic reaction to an internal power struggle,  not unlike the Devers situation.  

In any event , it was not a strategic move to make the team better.

Agreed. Spoiled but we should expect better than this last 6 yrs.

[Old Red]

19-27. Yes that’s 8 games under 500, which is closer to the bottom than the top. 29th in HR. 29 in runs scored, and 28th in total bases per game. 8 games in a row scoring 3 runs, or less. 10 games in a row scoring 4 runs, or less. Yes the Red Sox are only 3 games behind in the loss column from a wildcard spot, which sounds good, but they would have to climb over 7 teams to get there. Did I mention this team is 8 games under 500 in a league that is so watered down, and weak, which makes them look worse than they really are if that’s possible. No one is saying to give up, and there is still a long way to go to be mathematically eliminated, but if you can show passion, and optimism with this mess all the power to you, but at the moment I’m with the Bagheads on this one. Did I mention this team is 8 games under 500.🙈🤭🤮

[cp176]

If the decision is not to bring Arias up, then Mayer should be our shortstop.  I do not understand why players like Campbell and Eaton aren’t going to be given looks at third and second.  I love the overall defense that we have in our infield but if you can’t score more than one or two runs per game, it becomes just another useless stat that someone can get excited about.  The Durbin experiment just isn’t working out.  We have some excellent young pitchers here who are experiencing a wasted season.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

since 2019 and show the odds are low on striking gold, but that seems to be brushed aside by many. (Note: I include myself in the "many" from time to time.)

We're fans and want our team to always try to improve. Isn't that a definition of fans -- nobody wants their favorites to be less competitive. 

But the clubs who refuse to invest or at least -- Brez help us -- complete the starting line-up with quality big leaguers and balance the roster... those whose ownership won't allow such loyalty to their fanbase will wind up instead trading for replacements who can't hit the ball out of the infield. 

And who really knows how an offense with Bregman, Marte and Alonso would work if all those guys surrounded Anthony in the heart of the order. Would the Sox be better off without Suarez and Gray and instead have veteran bats supporting a rotation of a Crochet, Tolle and Early? 

Put it this way: it can't get much worse than these first two months.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We're fans and want our team to always try to improve. Isn't that a definition of fans -- nobody wants their favorites to be less competitive. 

But the clubs who refuse to invest or at least -- Brez help us -- complete the starting line-up with quality big leaguers and balance the roster... those whose ownership won't allow such loyalty to their fanbase will wind up instead trading for replacements who can't hit the ball out of the infield. 

And who really knows how an offense with Bregman, Marte and Alonso would work if all those guys surrounded Anthony in the heart of the order. Would the Sox be better off without Suarez and Gray and instead have veteran bats supporting a rotation of a Crochet, Tolle and Early? 

Put it this way: it can't get much worse than these first two months.

We do invest- just not at the pre-2019 era level.

We changed the way we invest and have swung and missed on most of our largest contracts from the Sale & Nate extension & signing up to the Crochet extension. (One could argue up to the Buehler signing.)

We seem to be playing whack-a-mole on our high need areas.

A "rotation of Crochet, Tolle & Early" would mean Bello & Bennett, too. With Crochet on the IL, we'd be in the same place as now but lamenting the fact that Brez neglected the rotation, and not the line-up.

We need to spend way more to whack all the moles, and JH simply has not done it nor appears to be planning on doing it anytime soon. If we don't spend way more, we need to hit on almost all of our major expenditures, kinda like last winter (so far) and hope the farm lives up to it's rankings. I'd mention injuries, but the plan has to account for them.

In theory, I agree. We should have gotten Suarez or Gray- not both, and used the money on a big bat. We may disagree on what a big bat is and how having one or two more improves others or not, but we whacked the SP mole real good and the big bat mole popped up it's ugly head and went unwhacked.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

In theory, I agree. We should have gotten Suarez or Gray- not both, and used the money on a big bat. We may disagree on what a big bat is and how having one or two more improves others or not, but we whacked the SP mole real good and the big bat mole popped up it's ugly head and went unwhacked.

I know you're setting me up for this line: this offense has been doing a lot of whacking... except for bat barrels on pitches.

If we're all really honest with ourselves, the entire starting line-up was suspicious going into the season except for three guys: Contreras, Abreu and Anthony. 

With Willson, we had no reason to think he wouldn't at least match his average offensive seasons.

Abreu and Anthony were young enough to expect improvement, but all of us expected they'd be at least as good as last year. One is better, the other injured (really have to wonder how long that's affected his poor ABs).

Durbin was the guy we knew nothing about except that he was a finalist for Rookie of the Year. Sophomore slumps are no surprise, but downgrading from AP courses and still failing remedials to being on the verge of dropping out entirely before you're even an upperclassmen is...

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know you're setting me up for this line: this offense has been doing a lot of whacking... except for bat barrels on pitches.

If we're all really honest with ourselves, the entire starting line-up was suspicious going into the season except for three guys: Contreras, Abreu and Anthony. 

With Willson, we had no reason to think he wouldn't at least match his average offensive seasons.

Abreu and Anthony were young enough to expect improvement, but all of us expected they'd be at least as good as last year. One is better, the other injured (really have to wonder how long that's affected his poor ABs).

Durbin was the guy we knew nothing about except that he was a finalist for Rookie of the Year. Sophomore slumps are no surprise, but downgrading from AP courses and still failing remedials to being on the verge of dropping out entirely before you're even an upperclassmen is...

I do think we all knew the offense (and pen) might be major issues. We were relying on too much speculative value and not more known values you get with hardened vets. Even our two returning vets, Duran and Story, were hardly dependable and projectable in a positive manner.

We have seen 4-5 players in very extreme decline, but even if they were doing 100 points better, our O would still stink.

[drewski6]

17 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

fans of every organization complain -even the LA Dodgers. i can't believe you'd think otherwise.

5 last place teams in like the last 7 years and 0 or 1 playoff series win, and people are here to complain......about fans complaining.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

We have seen 4-5 players in very extreme decline, but even if they were doing 100 points better, our O would still stink.

That doesnt exactly sound optimistic about the bats going forward

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

That doesnt exactly sound optimistic about the bats going forward

Well, Duran could hit 200 points better and still not top his 2024 numbers.

Durbin is about 200 points below 2025. Story, too.

Expecting them to hit 200 points better should seem possible, but I'm not feeling it.

[moonslav59]

SP Numbers (not including RP numbers)

OPS Against (ERA)

.502 Tolle (2.05) 31 IP

.535 Suarez (2.44) 44 IP

.672 Gray (3.18) 34 IP

.689 Early (3.21) 48 IP

.736 Bennett (4.35) 10 IP

.818 Crochet (6.30) 30 IP

1.082 Bello (9.68) 31 IP

1.500 Moran -as an opener (13.50) 2 IP

______________________

RP OPSA (20+ PAs against)

.396 Bello

.432 Slaten

.453 Chapman

.536 Moran

.612 Kelly, .613 Samaniego, .615 Whitlock

.713 Anderson, .736 Coulombe

.830 Weissert, .832 Watson

 

 

[cp176]

Again I would say on a given night we are sending X number of AAA players and bona fide utility men out there and hoping that they will hit.  It is unlikely that they will,  Either you go with a different batch of minor leaguers and utility players or start trading away anything of current value that you have understanding that times are tough and it ain’t going to be an easy fix.  How would you like to be Crochet, Aubreu and Chapman looking at this mess day in and day out.  Mayer should be the ss going forward and against prevailing  thought here, I would have no problem bringing up your top prospect and putting him at second base.  Eaton goes to third.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, cp176 said:

Again I would say on a given night we are sending X number of AAA players and bona fide utility men out there and hoping that they will hit.  It is unlikely that they will,  Either you go with a different batch of minor leaguers and utility players or start trading away anything of current value that you have understanding that times are tough and it ain’t going to be an easy fix.  How would you like to be Crochet, Aubreu and Chapman looking at this mess day in and day out.  Mayer should be the ss going forward and against prevailing  thought here, I would have no problem bringing up your top prospect and putting him at second base.  Eaton goes to third.

If they were really going to bring Arias up, Mayer would be heading to 3b or staying at 2b. Arias would be going to SS where he's spent all of his time. You're not going to take a guy straight from AA and put him at a position he's not familiar at. 

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they were really going to bring Arias up, Mayer would be heading to 3b or staying at 2b. Arias would be going to SS where he's spent all of his time. You're not going to take a guy straight from AA and put him at a position he's not familiar at. 

At some point, and I hate pulling this lever, it becomes not wanting to give up too many years of control.  We are likely to lose one on Early and Tolle, do we want to start the clock on Arias?

[cp176]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they were really going to bring Arias up, Mayer would be heading to 3b or staying at 2b. Arias would be going to SS where he's spent all of his time. You're not going to take a guy straight from AA and put him at a position he's not familiar at. 

You are probably right at least initially but a quality shortstop really won’t have much  of an issue moving to second base.  I’m not sure  how much third or second Mayer played before he was brought up. I’m sure that it is a moot point because this franchise is beginning to resemble the true meaning of being  athletically stupid.  Yard out the same people day in and day out and hope for better results.  I could see Mayer going to third if necessary but I don’t see any reason for not trying something different.  Arias, Eaton, Campbell would at least give us something different.  

[cp176]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

At some point, and I hate pulling this lever, it becomes not wanting to give up too many years of control.  We are likely to lose one on Early and Tolle, do we want to start the clock on Arias?

If it means a better product on the field the answer would be a huge yes.

[Hitch]

 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

At some point, and I hate pulling this lever, it becomes not wanting to give up too many years of control.  We are likely to lose one on Early and Tolle, do we want to start the clock on Arias?

At least Tolle and Early are ready. Arias? Who knows? 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hitch said:

 

Mrs Varitek is as messy as this ballclub. 💣

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mrs Varitek is as messy as this ballclub. 💣

We dont deserve the variteks :(