A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 25th in runs scored and even lower on wRC+, OPS and wOBA. They are 13 runs below 15th place and 25 runs from #10.

The Sox have moved up to 13th in runs allowed (earned and unearned.) That's just 1 run from 10th and 14 runs from 5th. The team is 7th in ERA- but below average in FIP and xFIP. 13th in ERA.

We are 17-22 with a Pyth of 18-21.

We have the 11th best record in the AL and the 4th worst.

0.5 GB mid tier

1 GB the 6th best record in the AL.

2 GB the last WC slot (with 6 teams between us & SEA.)

We are also 2GA of the worst record in the AL.

4 games separate the last WC team and the worst team.

[moonslav59]

The 5th and 6th best AL teams are both 19-21 (SEA & DET.)

The Sox are 1.5 GB those two.

It's hard to believe just how bad the AL has started out 2026.

[moonslav59]

Early + Tolle

60.1 IP

41 Hits

19 ER (2.83 ERA)

24 BB

62 Ks

 

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, notin said:

I expect that to change. 
 

Also it’s not a horrible contract.  It would just work better on a player who wasn’t so selfish…

I think it has the potential to be very horrible.  Devers's numbers this year are very horrible.  -0.8 bWAR.  49 Ks/9 BBs.

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it has the potential to be very horrible.  Devers's numbers this year are very horrible.  -0.8 bWAR.  49 Ks/9 BBs.

I think it took a lot of things out of him when he was traded by the Red Sox that he might never be the same player again.i think he still would be a better player in Boston, but probably wouldn’t of aged to well.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it has the potential to be very horrible.  Devers's numbers this year are very horrible.  -0.8 bWAR.  49 Ks/9 BBs.

He could become Pablito x 2.

He could also become an .800 to .850 batter for 2-4 years, a .750 to .800 for another 2-4 years and maybe end his contract between .700 and .750. That would fall way short of the money paid for him.

I suppose he could be one of those players that have late career resurgences, but he does not strike me as that type of player, then again, who does when they are in their early 30's?

I do think he liked playing with Boston and in Fenway. Had there never been tat blow-up, maybe he'd still be hitting pretty well, but at some point, he'd have been asked or forced to move off 3B. We all know, I wanted him moved to 1B long ago, but they kept him there, despite horrific defense. Something had to give, and when the moment came, he became a cancer that had to be removed. That's the bottom line. We don't have much left from that trade, and we've already dealt away most of the assets we got from SFG, but the money saved, if spent by JH and spent wisely by Brez can be a redeeming factor...or NOT.

Devers for....

Hicks (dumped with Sandlin) for Ziehl

Harrison (traded with DHam & Drohan) for Durbin, Monasterio and Seigler

Tibbs traded for DMay

Jose Bello is still in the system.

Since Harrison and Hicks were traded with other pieces, it's hard to quantify what exactly we got for them. It's probably safe to say, "nothing special."

What we do with the freed up money is also hard to quantify.

[JoeBrady]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Had there never been tat blow-up, maybe he'd still be hitting pretty well, but at some point, he'd have been asked or forced to move off 3B.

It's unquantifiable to say what he might have been had he stayed.  But moving off 3rd was already locked in.  I happened to be looking at career DRS for another player, and noticed that Devers was already up to #14 in negative DRS, and he has years to go.  Had he stayed at 3rd, he might have been the #2 worst in history (behind Jeter).

FWIW, Bogaerts is #10 worst, and could crack the top-5 before he retires.

[Old Red]

17-23 on the season. 7-12 at home. 27th in run scored. 28 in HR. A BAD team in a very weak league, 🤮

[mvp 78]

Since Cora was fired:

11th in Batting fWAR 

4th in SB

1st in DRS

2nd in OAA/FRV

29th in BS

30th Hard Hit Rate Starting Pitchers (lowest)

It's a team that is playing great defense and has starters that give up weak contact. The hitters still aren't doing much and the bullpen is pretty mediocre at best. Really had to stretch it to find some positives in the numbers. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I-witnessed Worcester report:

(typing in the Realistic thread for those who still think Campbell is an option in '26)... Woo lost, 3-2, to the Scrankees. Gamboa looked decent, Anderson threw meatballs and Guerrero is so big and fast, he lets go of the pitch about five feet from the plate. Guys who guessed right made contact, but others were overmatched... though he won't be in the majors until he stops bouncing 101 off the dirt.

Woo had the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th, down one with one out and clean-up batter Kristian Campbell up. He was O-fer with two Ks already -- one fishing, one looking. But this was his chance to be the walk-off hero. All he needed was a single somewhere... but swung out of his shoes, pulled his head, and missed the first two pitches. What was he thinking? 

KC then grounded to 2nd for a game-inning DP.

The only realistic position prospects right now look like Seigler, who can hit, and Ward, who is so disruptive on the bases that it's conceivable some MLB contender will want him included in a package at the trade deadline.

[mvp 78]

Seigler has always been able to hit MiLB pitching. After getting the call last season, he hit like Durbin with less power. He's a jack of all trades type player. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I-witnessed Worcester report:

(typing in the Realistic thread for those who still think Campbell is an option in '26)... Woo lost, 3-2, to the Scrankees. Gamboa looked decent, Anderson threw meatballs and Guerrero is so big and fast, he lets go of the pitch about five feet from the plate. Guys who guessed right made contact, but others were overmatched... though he won't be in the majors until he stops bouncing 101 off the dirt.

Woo had the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th, down one with two outs and clean-up batter Kristian Campbell up. He was O-fer with two Ks already -- one fishing, one looking. But this was his chance to be the walk-off hero. All he needed was a single somewhere... but swung out of his shoes, pulled his head, and missed the first two pitches. What was he thinking? 

KC then grounded to 2nd for a game-inning DP.

The only realistic position prospects right now look like Seigler, who can hit, and Ward, who is so disruptive on the bases that it's conceivable some MLB contender will want him included in a package at the trade deadline.

So Campbell’s is not realistic based on one at bat?

My question is - what is he working on and how is that done?  If he was sent down “ to work on something”, it’s probably not actually worked on during regular game play…

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since Cora was fired:

11th in Batting fWAR 

4th in SB

1st in DRS

2nd in OAA/FRV

29th in BS

30th Hard Hit Rate Starting Pitchers (lowest)

It's a team that is playing great defense and has starters that give up weak contact. The hitters still aren't doing much and the bullpen is pretty mediocre at best. Really had to stretch it to find some positives in the numbers. 

Runs scored, which leads to W-L record? I didn’t watch much baseball this weekend, but of what I saw it was refreshing to watch Tampa play some real baseball. Get on base, steal, bunt, steal, and bunt again.

[mvp 78]

Braiden Ward's Exit Velo would be near last in MLB. Not many players have a skillset like his and are productive in this day and age. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Runs scored, which leads to W-L record? I didn’t watch much baseball this weekend, but of what I saw it was refreshing to watch Tampa play some real baseball. Get on base, steal, bunt, steal, and bunt again.

Sox have a -12 Run Differential. Five teams worse than them in the AL. So they are a lower-middle of the pack team, but maybe not the dregs. Sure. If they keep it up, they'll be on the outside looking in at the trade deadline while being 4 games out when 6-7 teams are "still in it" because of the sheer amount of playoff spots now.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

So Campbell’s is not realistic based on one at bat?

My question is - what is he working on and how is that done?  If he was sent down “ to work on something”, it’s probably not actually worked on during regular game play…

You asked two. The first one is totally your assumption. KC was 0-for-4 with two bad Ks and a questionable approach when a four-run homer was unnecessary to win a one-run game. From my observations of watching Campbell in person in games several times this season, Campbell has not shown he is a big leaguer. He looks the same as he did last year: a pro athlete, but not a major league baseball player.

Have you even seen him hit this year? Arms, legs and head are all out of synch, with no consistency from one AB to the next. Guys who can't mesh those working parts in games in the minors aren't considered for the next level. 

When Anthony, an outfielder/DH went on the IL, why didn't Eaton get promoted over Gasper? Eaton can run fast on the bases and in the outfield. But Gasper has had Woo's most consistent bat and the Red Sox need more.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox have a -12 Run Differential. Five teams worse than them in the AL. So they are a lower-middle of the pack team, but maybe not the dregs. Sure. If they keep it up, they'll be on the outside looking in at the trade deadline while being 4 games out when 6-7 teams are "still in it" because of the sheer amount of playoff spots now.  

Glass half full being close to a Wildcard spot, and glass half empty being close to the very bottom of the league.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Glass half full being close to a Wildcard spot, and glass half empty being close to the very bottom of the league.

The half empty is just looking at the guys in the trainers room and saying maybe this isn't the year even if they do try to make a run. 

[moonslav59]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

It's unquantifiable to say what he might have been had he stayed.  But moving off 3rd was already locked in.  I happened to be looking at career DRS for another player, and noticed that Devers was already up to #14 in negative DRS, and he has years to go.  Had he stayed at 3rd, he might have been the #2 worst in history (behind Jeter).

To me, his biggest defensive issue was an inaccurate arm, which can be hidden at 1B. For a big guy, he seemed to have pretty quick reflexes and footwork. I think that after some time at 1B, he could have become a near average defensive 1Bman. As bad as Casas was at 1B defense, I would have told Devers to play 1B not DH, after the Bregman addition. At least tell him he might be used at 1B and DH. It's too late, now, of course.

It's way too early to judge Devers' defense at 1B, as he is still adjusting and not really playing there FT.

-1 DRS at 1B in 400+ innings.

[moonslav59]

The team is 8-6 in their last 14. That's the best cherry-pick timeframe for the season.

If we continue that pace, we'd end up at 87 wins.

I don't see us playing like an 87 win team. Hell, we played like a sub .500 team, even in the last 14 games.

We only have slim hopes because the league sucks.

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You asked two. The first one is totally your assumption. KC was 0-for-4 with two bad Ks and a questionable approach when a four-run homer was unnecessary to win a one-run game. From my observations of watching Campbell in person in games several times this season, Campbell has not shown he is a big leaguer. He looks the same as he did last year: a pro athlete, but not a major league baseball player.

Have you even seen him hit this year? Arms, legs and head are all out of synch, with no consistency from one AB to the next. Guys who can't mesh those working parts in games in the minors aren't considered for the next level. 

When Anthony, an outfielder/DH went on the IL, why didn't Eaton get promoted over Gasper? Eaton can run fast on the bases and in the outfield. But Gasper has had Woo's most consistent bat and the Red Sox need more.

But that’s not what I asked.  I asked - why was he demoted? Was it work on something?  And if so, how does a player work on that?

[mvp 78]

On 5/10/2026 at 8:06 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it has the potential to be very horrible.  Devers's numbers this year are very horrible.  -0.8 bWAR.  49 Ks/9 BBs.

He has started off slowly before. Looks like he might be starting too heat up a little with an OPS over 1000 in May. His YTD batted ball data would have him hitting 1 HR at Fenway, but 9 in Philly. 🫠

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You asked two. The first one is totally your assumption. KC was 0-for-4 with two bad Ks and a questionable approach when a four-run homer was unnecessary to win a one-run game. From my observations of watching Campbell in person in games several times this season, Campbell has not shown he is a big leaguer. He looks the same as he did last year: a pro athlete, but not a major league baseball player.

Have you even seen him hit this year? Arms, legs and head are all out of synch, with no consistency from one AB to the next. Guys who can't mesh those working parts in games in the minors aren't considered for the next level. 

When Anthony, an outfielder/DH went on the IL, why didn't Eaton get promoted over Gasper? Eaton can run fast on the bases and in the outfield. But Gasper has had Woo's most consistent bat and the Red Sox need more.

so glad the Sox gave KC that big contract because, as Joe Brady said, "...all the other teams are doing it". 

and that's always a good idea. 😂

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

so glad the Sox gave KC that big contract because, as Joe Brady said, "...all the other teams are doing it". 

and that's always a good idea. 😂

Luckily Casas didn’t take their offer.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, his biggest defensive issue was an inaccurate arm, which can be hidden at 1B. For a big guy, he seemed to have pretty quick reflexes and footwork. I think that after some time at 1B, he could have become a near average defensive 1Bman. As bad as Casas was at 1B defense, I would have told Devers to play 1B not DH, after the Bregman addition. At least tell him he might be used at 1B and DH. It's too late, now, of course.

It's way too early to judge Devers' defense at 1B, as he is still adjusting and not really playing there FT.

-1 DRS at 1B in 400+ innings.

-3 this year.  That's pretty bad.  Normally I go for the larger sample size, but I think Devers issue has always been a lack of focus.  So I'm using the more current sample size.

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

so glad the Sox gave KC that big contract because, as Joe Brady said, "...all the other teams are doing it". 

and that's always a good idea. 😂

I never said it guaranteed anything.  But I will usually be in favor of extending the kids.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

so glad the Sox gave KC that big contract because, as Joe Brady said, "...all the other teams are doing it". 

and that's always a good idea. 😂

Not too many people were upset with it at the time. It was considered an under market deal. The problem is that not every prospect works out, you need to give extensions to the guys you're really certain about. This was a guy who had such a broken swing that they had to revamp it a few months later. 

I don't think they needed to do Rafaela or Bello's extension either. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Luckily Casas didn’t take their offer.

I don't think any numbers have been reported. It probably wouldn't have been very high. He was clearly betting on himself, stupidly. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not too many people were upset with it at the time. It was considered an under market deal. The problem is that not every prospect works out, you need to give extensions to the guys you're really certain about. This was a guy who had such a broken swing that they had to revamp it a few months later. 

I don't think they needed to do Rafaela or Bello's extension either. 

They went from one extreme with the Mookie, and Bogey times to pretty much everyone except that Casas didn’t bite.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

so glad the Sox gave KC that big contract because, as Joe Brady said, "...all the other teams are doing it". 

and that's always a good idea. 😂

Dr. Breslowstein and his office full of Igors did the mash a year ago, congratulating themselves for their Campbell creation. But then the monster turned on them and now no one can control him.

We all know the reasons he was demoted a year ago, but every time I see him swing now it looks like he's hurting himself trying to pull the ball in the air. 

Yesterday: tying run on 3rd, winning run on 2nd -- a single could've been enough... but KC tried to kill the ball. I know the minors don't put as much emphasis on winning, but being a walk-off hero can't hurt a guy's chances at getting noticed by a parent club in desperate need of offense.