A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

Sonny Gray threw a three-inning live batting practice session on Friday, in what could be the last step before his activation from the 15-day IL.  Gray hasn’t pitched since April 20 due to a hamstring strain, but the injury is seemingly minor enough that Gray could be back in Boston’s rotation as early as Wednesday.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Contreras is good, but most of us knew without a doubt the Sox needed two All-Star bats to improve. Is this even debatable? 

No, but calling Bregman an All Star bat is very debatable.

2019-2026

27th in MLB in OPS .833: That's good but not great. (131 in wRC+ is #21 and close to great.)

2024-2026

47th at .784: That's barely top third tier (46 out of 145 qualifiers- he's 47th in wRC+ at 119)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

No, but calling Bregman an All Star bat is very debatable.

2019-2026

27th in MLB in OPS .833: That's good but not great. (131 in wRC+ is #21 and close to great.)

2024-2026

47th at .784: That's barely top third tier (46 out of 145 qualifiers- he's 47th in wRC+ at 119)

Bregman wasn't voted to the 2025 AL All-Star team by the fans. He was selected by his peers as a reserve for the first half of his one year as a Red Sox. His defense was ok, but barely above Replacement Player level. He stole one base on the season. For what other reason could players around the league base their votes?

He had a .921 OPS in the 1st half, then injury affected his offense in the 2nd half, when he slipped to .727. Overall, the Sox lost a third baseman with an .821 OPS. Devers was .921 in his last stint as a Red Sox. Refsnyder was .838. Lowe was .790.

All left, and only one newcomer has approached those numbers.

Breslow -- who I praised today for his 2025 offseason acquisitions -- left this year's roster incomplete. And we all knew it before this woeful season even began. No one can say otherwise.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

You knock the 1986 Sox bullpen, but if not for Shag Crawford pitching out of (and in to, but focus on the “out of”) a bases loaded/nobody out jam in the ninth inning of game 5 against the Angels, no one would remember Dave Henderson’s heroics…

For a pennant winner, that bullpen was pretty bad -- the top five relievers in games pitched had ERAs hovering at 4 or worse (and as we know, that doesn't account for inherited runs allowed). Schiraldi getting called up at the end of the summer basically saved the season, and he was good in the LCS... but as we know, burned out in the WS.

But you're right, Crawford was a postseason hero and the only Red Sox besides Hurst to win a World Series game. His scariest moment came in the bottom of the 9th in LCS Game 5 vs. the Angels with the pennant-winning run on 3rd, one out, and clean-up batter Doug DeCinces up. He popped up to right and the run didn't score.

After the game, which Boston won, 7-6 in extras, California Manager Gene Mauch said, "I have nowhere to sleep tonight. I bet my house DeCinces would get that run home."

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bregman wasn't voted to the 2025 AL All-Star team by the fans. He was selected by his peers as a reserve for the first half of his one year as a Red Sox. His defense was ok, but barely above Replacement Player level. He stole one base on the season. For what other reason could players around the league base their votes?

He had a .921 OPS in the 1st half, then injury affected his offense in the 2nd half, when he slipped to .727. Overall, the Sox lost a third baseman with an .821 OPS. Devers was .921 in his last stint as a Red Sox. Refsnyder was .838. Lowe was .790.

All left, and only one newcomer has approached those numbers.

Breslow -- who I praised today for his 2025 offseason acquisitions -- left this year's roster incomplete. And we all knew it before this woeful season even began. No one can say otherwise.

 

Breg is an all star: I agree.

He's not an all star bat based on two good half years in 4 seasons.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow -- who I praised today for his 2025 offseason acquisitions -- left this year's roster incomplete. And we all knew it before this woeful season even began. No one can say otherwise.

Everyone agrees, except maybe notin.

We don't agree Bregman filled the big bat need.

He made some very bad adds in 2025 and left holes then, too. With a limited budget that happens, a lot.

[moonslav59]

Since the 1932 season, when the Sox went 43-111 (.279) here are the worst losing percentages:

.394 2026

.400 2020

.422 1960

.438 2014

.444 1966

.447 1943

.448 1954

.451 1992

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Since the 1932 season, when the Sox went 43-111 (.279) here are the worst losing percentages:

.394 2026

.400 2020

.422 1960

.438 2014

.444 1966

.447 1943

.448 1954

.451 1992

 

Worst team in 94 years. 

So not only the worst Red Sox team in my son's lifetime, and my lifetime... but in my parents' lifetime.

[Duran Is The Man]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Since the 1932 season, when the Sox went 43-111 (.279) here are the worst losing percentages:

.394 2026

.400 2020

.422 1960

.438 2014

.444 1966

.447 1943

.448 1954

.451 1992

 

the last DAY the Sox were in first place, during the regular season, was the last day of 2018. since then, every team in the league has been in first (at least for a day) except the Angels (2014) and the Royals (2015).

[moonslav59]

17 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow -- who I praised today for his 2025 offseason acquisitions -- left this year's roster incomplete. And we all knew it before this woeful season even began. No one can say otherwise.

 

Is one year clearly better than the other?

2025: The Crochet deal & Chapman signing were fantastic- the rest is TBD or bad

Traded for: Crochet (Teel, Montgomery, Meidroth, Wikelman) Narvaez (ER-C) Fajardo (Booser) Moran (Gasper)

Signed: Buehler ($21M) Sandoval ($19M) Chapman ($11M) Wilson(2.3M)

_______________________________

2026:: Left a big hole on a power bat but fortified the pitching (on paper)

Traded for: Gray (Fitts & Clarke) Contreras (Dobbins, Fajardo & Aita) Oviedo, Guzman & Samaniego (JhGarcia & Travieso) Bennett (Perales) Durbin, Monasterio, Comp pick & Seigler (Harrison, DHam & Drohan) Ziehl (Hicks, Sandlin) TGray, RHern,Ward, Heyman & Jackson (Bernardino, Murphy, LGuerrero, Hoppe, Grissom)

Signed: Suarez ($26M) Chapman ($13M)

_____________________________

Much is still TBD, and I did not count in season trades from 2025, like Priester & Newcomb and Matz & DMay.

[oldtimer]

Now we are seeing a willingness to bench Story for a couple of games based on his continued poor performance. Cora wouldn't have done that, perhaps the new manager is more likely to take action to correct problems such as players who are not contributing. Will Arias get a look this season? What about Duran as well. He has only performed well in a few games this year. There was an opportunity to trade him that was missed. With our record, I would think management would be taking corrective action, especially after we have a new manager who might not feel as inclined to support players who aren't getting it done.

[moonslav59]

There are some obvious reasons why some our worst performers have gotten more playing time than others doing better, but I do wonder sometimes if sticking with these guys is the best philosophy. (Also moving them down in the line-up or trying them in the pen is another option over benching.)

OPS listed in order of most PAs:

OPS Against in order of most PAs against:

SP'ers

.723 Early (151 PAs Against- his control issues need to be fixed)

.818 Crochet (138- to have any chance, we need him back and in form)

1.074 Bello (133- may be demoted to pem AAA or IL when Gray returns)

.553 Suarez (132- is now our "ace.")

.743 Gray (99- may come off IL on Wednesday)

.532 Tolle (42- looks to own a rotation slot, now)

.794 Bennett (20- deserves another start or two?)

1.378 Oviedo (18- on 60 Day IL)

---------------------------

RP'ers

.851 Watson (96- much as mop up)

.573 Moran (76- surprising as #2 in IP)

.857 Weissert (56-sucked early on)

.685 Whitlock (51- mostly high leverage)

.549 Kelly (46- surprisingly low OPSA)

.515 Samaniego (41- might pitch more going forward)

.573 Chapman (37- still getting the job done)

.736 Coulombe (36- meh)

.713 Anderson (32- yo-yo w Woo)

.452 Slaten (14- can't stay healthy)

1.064 Uberstine (11- on IL)

.200 Eduardo Rivera (10- may get another look-see)

_______________________

The Offense:

.545 Story (139 PAs- this needed to change)

.846 Contreras (137- Mr. Steady)

.849 Abreu (135- as been moved up in the line-up)

.683 Anthony (124- not really any better options)

.520 Durbin (118- do we have a better 3Bman?)

.517 Duran (117- has batted very high in line-up when playing)

.703 Rafaela (112- should play more and maybe bat higher?)

.661 Mayer (92- no better option)

.609 Narvaez (70- mix w Wong)

.727 Yoshida (60- maybe play over Duran?)

.678 Monasterio (48- play over Durbin/Story more?)

.692 Wong  (47- mix w Narvaez)

.499 IKF (37- has not played much)

 

[moonslav59]

How about the Pirates?

18-16 and in last place.

7 batters over .710

6 batters over .750, 5 over .770 and 4 over .815

Their two top batters were under-the-radar winter additions:

.895 B Lowe

.888 O'Hearn

Remind me who is their baseball operations guy?

----------------------------------

How about those 20-13 Cardinals, wo traded away much of their veteran leaders (Contreras, Gray, Arenado & Donovan)?

Who is the guy in charge there?

----------------------------------

Note: this is not meant as a wish we still have Ben or Chaim in charge. This is just a public service announcement.

[JoeBrady]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Remind me who is their baseball operations guy?

Who is the guy in charge there?

Alex, I'll take ex-RS GMs that the fans wanted out.

In all fairness, BC has had the overall 1/7, 1/1, 1/4, 1/1 and 1/9 picks. And correspondingly high 2nd rounders.  Sooner or later, you are bound to hit some guys.

[JoeBrady]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

wo traded away much of their veteran leaders (Contreras, Gray, Arenado & Donovan)?

Are you implying that 'veteran leadership' is overrated?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Are you implying that 'veteran leadership' is overrated?

It was not intended, and I don't think player leadership is over-rated.

[a700hitter]

Is Eloy Jiménez worth a shot.  He is right handed and hits the longball.  Send Yoshida packing.  He has no fit at all and he is untradeable.

[Duran Is The Man]

this team needs to be burned to the ground, but i don't trust Brezlow to tear it down and build it back.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

Is Eloy Jiménez worth a shot.  He is right handed and hits the longball.  Send Yoshida packing.  He has no fit at all and he is untradeable.

Eloy Jimenez has no extra base hits this year.  He’d be just another underperforming hitter…

[Old Red]

4 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

this team needs to be burned to the ground, but i don't trust Brezlow to tear it down and build it back.

This was supposed to be the time that everyone has been waiting for, and anticipating for 3 years now when all I heard was the suspects are coming, the suspects are coming. Mayer, and little Anthony are here now. Teel got traded for Cro Man, and Casas has fallen by the wayside, but RAF Man is also here. If this doesn’t work, and it’s still early, but the team would be in serious trouble.🤔

 

 

 

 

 

[notin]

10 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the last DAY the Sox were in first place, during the regular season, was the last day of 2018. since then, every team in the league has been in first (at least for a day) except the Angels (2014) and the Royals (2015).

Is there a minimum number of games played for this?  Because it seems like the Sox were in first place this year after starting out 1-0, tied with NY and Baltimore…

[Old Red]

8 GB. 68-60 will get you there.

[notin]

When is it time to demote Durbin? 
 

His OPS is .520, but if you don’t count his lone home run off an outfielder, it’s .475.  Campbell’s got demoted for a worse slump, and he already had an Offensive Rookie of the Month award on his resume (with a .935 OPS)…

Story to 2b, Mayer to 3b, Rafaela to SS, Duran to CF, Anthony to LF, Yoshida to DH.

It feels a little criminal to me that Yoshida is among the best 3 or 4 hitters on this struggling team, but is only batting slightly more often than Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa…

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There are some obvious reasons why some our worst performers have gotten more playing time than others doing better, but I do wonder sometimes if sticking with these guys is the best philosophy. (Also moving them down in the line-up or trying them in the pen is another option over benching.)

OPS listed in order of most PAs:

OPS Against in order of most PAs against:

SP'ers

.723 Early (151 PAs Against- his control issues need to be fixed)

.818 Crochet (138- to have any chance, we need him back and in form)

1.074 Bello (133- may be demoted to pem AAA or IL when Gray returns)

.553 Suarez (132- is now our "ace.")

.743 Gray (99- may come off IL on Wednesday)

.532 Tolle (42- looks to own a rotation slot, now)

.794 Bennett (20- deserves another start or two?)

1.378 Oviedo (18- on 60 Day IL)

---------------------------

RP'ers

.851 Watson (96- much as mop up)

.573 Moran (76- surprising as #2 in IP)

.857 Weissert (56-sucked early on)

.685 Whitlock (51- mostly high leverage)

.549 Kelly (46- surprisingly low OPSA)

.515 Samaniego (41- might pitch more going forward)

.573 Chapman (37- still getting the job done)

.736 Coulombe (36- meh)

.713 Anderson (32- yo-yo w Woo)

.452 Slaten (14- can't stay healthy)

1.064 Uberstine (11- on IL)

.200 Eduardo Rivera (10- may get another look-see)

_______________________

The Offense:

.545 Story (139 PAs- this needed to change)

.846 Contreras (137- Mr. Steady)

.849 Abreu (135- as been moved up in the line-up)

.683 Anthony (124- not really any better options)

.520 Durbin (118- do we have a better 3Bman?)

.517 Duran (117- has batted very high in line-up when playing)

.703 Rafaela (112- should play more and maybe bat higher?)

.661 Mayer (92- no better option)

.609 Narvaez (70- mix w Wong)

.727 Yoshida (60- maybe play over Duran?)

.678 Monasterio (48- play over Durbin/Story more?)

.692 Wong  (47- mix w Narvaez)

.499 IKF (37- has not played much)

 

Crochet could end up this season with the same stats as last year and this team still finishes under.500.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Is there a minimum number of games played for this?  Because it seems like the Sox were in first place this year after starting out 1-0, tied with NY and Baltimore…

not including the first game of the season.

[notin]

9 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

not including the first game of the season.

Thats fair..

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, a700hitter said:

Is Eloy Jiménez worth a shot.  He is right handed and hits the longball.  Send Yoshida packing.  He has no fit at all and he is untradeable.

No. If the Sox want a productive bat, they are better off keeping Masa over Eloy.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, notin said:

When is it time to demote Durbin? 
 

His OPS is .520, but if you don’t count his lone home run off an outfielder, it’s .475.  Campbell’s got demoted for a worse slump, and he already had an Offensive Rookie of the Month award on his resume (with a .935 OPS)…

Story to 2b, Mayer to 3b, Rafaela to SS, Duran to CF, Anthony to LF, Yoshida to DH.

It feels a little criminal to me that Yoshida is among the best 3 or 4 hitters on this struggling team, but is only batting slightly more often than Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa…

Is Masa able to play the IF and I'm just now learning about it? 

[mvp 78]

Duran, Story and Durbin are all under 600 OPS. How is Durbin the only weak link in the lineup? The only guys that are really pulling their weight are Contreras and Wilyer. 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran, Story and Durbin are all under 600 OPS. How is Durbin the only weak link in the lineup? The only guys that are really pulling their weight are Contreras and Wilyer. 

He’s not but he’s the only one of the three that can be demoted without being DFA.  The Sox aren’t likely to make irreversible changes right now…