Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[drewski6]

10 hours ago, notin said:

The problem with Stanton is the 75 games always appears more likely than the 30 home runs.  He’s topped 114 games once since 2019, and his pro-rated 2020 season doesn’t come close.

And he’s not likely to get healthier as he ages…

I agree.  But Stanton had a .965 OPS last year and 25 HR in half a season, which really, is better than 30 HR in a full season and his wRC+/SLG are better than what we can expect from anyone we have.  I got an "LMAO" when I pointed out that hes prob #5 in projected HRs for them and thats a bit scary considering hes higher than anyone we got.  They are a scary team and Max Fried is a very good pitcher.

I went to check my biases to see if maybe I could be overrating the Yankees or underrating the Red Sox because I believe that its full stupid to build a team any other way than bats first, but Im open to maybe Im underrating how far pitching can carry you.  So I was looking at power rankings and the yankees are consistently 2nd or 3rd and for us the highest Ive seen is for us is 6th and the lowest Ive seen for us 11th.

I think we can catch them, but I dont think its realistic to present us as practical equals to them at this point in time.  I think we are a T2 team and the yankees are one of like 4 or 5 T1 teams.

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not what's happening here?

Huh? They set the odds based on 50-50 betting. If it's opening odds, they set in what they think will be 50-50 betting, and not on what they think the results will be. The end results may be similar, but vegas odds are not projections.

Theres not 50-50 betting on future lines, thats not how that works.  Its not like they want half the money to come in on yankees winning ws and half coming in against it. NObody is going to take the latter (at lesat not anything close to 50-50) because its like bet 1100 to win 100.  Sports gambling is stupid, dont get me wrong.  Gambling is for people who arent smart enough to make millions consulting.  I get all that.  But the fact that if you make a $100 bet on the NYY you win 1000, and same be on red sox you win 1700 - thats more because of a belief that there is more of a chance of yanks winning it all than us.

The gap I wouldnt say is insurmountable, I think the spread reflects this.  I dont bet because I trust Vegas to know where the line is.  The difference isnt huge.  But I cant honestly say that I agree that its neck and neck.

I chose my position carefully. The Yankee are one full step ahead of us at present.  Not 2 giant leaps, not even one giant leap.  But I cant say that I believe that we're neck and neck.  I would say in 5 game series theyd prob be 65% likely to take the series, of course, depending on who is healthy.

 

[drewski6]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but we got zero GS from Crawford and Sandoval. Merloni is super high on Crawford: I have my doubts, but both out guys are pretty talented, too.

I'd prefer to not count on much from any returning-from-injury SP'ers on all teams.

I think its fair to be skeptical and not count on players returning from serious injury, but I also think you cant put ever pitcher who is returning from an injury into one category.  Personally, I dont play doctor.  I ask doctors and hedge.  Because I pay them, right? So instead of just assuming 0 from all of them, I would ask the team doctors what I can expect.  And if Dr says should be good to go, I would still feel uncomfy if I have 3 guys like that in my rotation and no depth , for sure. So I would be skeptical too.

Generally speaking, not this example.  Kutter Crawford is f'ing awesome.

[drewski6]

6 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Vegas odds over under: 
Yankees 91.5
Blue Jays 88.5
Red Sox 87.5
Orioles 84.5
Rays 77.5

I find it funny, people speak of RS as if they improved. They improved……… from what we expected AFTER Bregman and Alonso signed elsewhere. Red Sox had all the makings to take this team right to top of AL…… They did not make the moves to make that happen. And it’s predicted in our Vegas win total. We are not a clearly better team than a year ago. 

AND we've used a significant amount of trade chips! 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Yankees have been preseason favorites to win the pennant every year of my life since I was a teenager and they traded Bobby Murcer for Bobby Bonds.

The worst wager you could ever make is to bet that oddsmakers won't favor NY first over everybody else -- even all the good clubs that actually make offseason additions to improve (alright, I admit the Yanks picking up Weathers could help; he's a guy I liked as a possible Sox target).

Look how weak the Yanks were at the end of last season. The Jays were thrilled they beat depleted Boston, who Toronto feared as a tougher match-up. And what has New York done this winter? Cole's coming back -- from a major injury -- and he'll be as Cy as ever?

I can't even-- Ju-JUD-JUDG-JUDGE!

[Hugh2]

29 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

AND we've used a significant amount of trade chips! 

At the end of the day these are people trying to predict the future.  People are very poor predictors of the future. 

at 87.5 I'd take the over on the Red Sox.  Call me a homer.....I'm going to full homer this year. 

[mvp 78]

7 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

2B Mayer

3B Durbin

LF Duran

RF Anthony

DH Abreu

I think it will be: 

Anthony LF

Abreu RF 

Duran DH

Durbin 2B vs RHP, 3B vs LHP

Mayer 3B vs RHP

Romy 2B vs LHP

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

At the end of the day these are people trying to predict the future.  People are very poor predictors of the future. 

at 87.5 I'd take the over on the Red Sox.  Call me a homer.....I'm going to full homer this year. 

87.5 is a good number. I had them at 87 before the Durbin trade and would probably be at 89 now. 

I'll say close, but over. Barely though. 

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

At the end of the day these are people trying to predict the future.  People are very poor predictors of the future. 

at 87.5 I'd take the over on the Red Sox.  Call me a homer.....I'm going to full homer this year. 

I wouldnt call you a homer for taking the over on a line that that was designed to get 50% of bets on one side and 50% of people on the other.....Plus the people setting this threshold, Im sure, knew what they are doing.

[drewski6]

For me over vs under is hard because on one hand, I do think a step back is an instant sack of Breslow so I think he'll feel the heat and try to keep improving and Durbins .711 OPS (hooooooray now we have our 3b "of the future" with no place to put a real bat "in the future"), I dont think fixes all our probs. I do like the player, I do like the trade.  But Im not going to jump and down that one more positional slot is now filled for the next 5 years with a 5'7, .711 OPS even though I do think that .711 has a sadly decent chance of being one of our top 3.

But on the other hand , I really dont trust Breslows ability to get deals across the finish line , for players he wants, mid-season.  Our track record is we do a great job of identifying the players we need, then showing a complete ineptness at bringing them on board.

I dont know, Im no even sure I care much.  Im here for enjoyment and I get plenty of it watching Breslows dysfunction.  And at least he keeps us in the headlines, which is what really matters here.  Im not even sure I want him sacked, I think I might even want....more Breslow....Like watching him like epic fail at ordering a coffee cuz he doesnt human well. Get this guy a reality show!

I dont really care, just keep churning and dont be complacent.

[drewski6]

I enjoy the sheer number of moves and I hope that continues.  Im just here to kill time during work and non-stop trades/roster churn gives us something to analyze.  Im here for fun. Next I want to see some fights, got some in the NBA recently for like the first time in decades.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Theres not 50-50 betting on future lines, thats not how that works.  Its not like they want half the money to come in on yankees winning ws and half coming in against it. NObody is going to take the latter (at lesat not anything close to 50-50) because its like bet 1100 to win 100.  Sports gambling is stupid, dont get me wrong.  Gambling is for people who arent smart enough to make millions consulting.  I get all that.  But the fact that if you make a $100 bet on the NYY you win 1000, and same be on red sox you win 1700 - thats more because of a belief that there is more of a chance of yanks winning it all than us.

There are different categories of betting propositions though.  I think with a bet like an over-under of 87.5 wins Vegas absolutely wants equal money on both sides, because there are only 2 possible outcomes.

I used to get confused by what gamblers meant by "the hook".  Then I realized they were referring to the .5 because the number 5 looks a little like a hook.

[drewski6]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

There are different categories of betting propositions though.  I think with a bet like an over-under of 87.5 wins Vegas absolutely wants equal money on both sides, because there are only 2 possible outcomes.

Agreed 100%.  Im glad someone pointed this out, cuz Vegas always knows.  I wouldnt bet one way or the other, because I dont gamble.  Not like moral issue with it, I just get bored.  Unless its craps because then its social.  Or like if Im at a buddys and everyone is throwing 100 on the game I will too , but thats again more of a social thing.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

MLB.com again TODAY states that Duran is the #1 leftfielder in all of baseball. But the Mets just announced that Soto will play LF this season, so rankings may have to be adjusted.

As for Abreu at DH, it makes no sense for a team admitting and bragging they're built around pitching and D to put a two-time Gold Glover on the bench. 

Of the four "starting" outfielders, Anthony might DH more than any of them. Then he could just concentrate on hitting more home runs -- which a reporter already asked him about in Florida (but no pressure, kid).

I like these batting orders: Duran-Story/Durbin-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu-Durbin/Story. Cora already said WiLL will bat clean-up, so gotta think Anthony 3rd since there's no one else that can protect him. 

On defense...

Rafaela>Abreu>>Anthony>>Duran

Duran should DH the most of all OF'ers with Anthony second.

Abreu should only DH as a mechanism to get him rest while keeping one of the few power bats we have in the line-up more often. Rafaela should never DH for obvious reasons. (I'd avoid playing him at 2B unless as an ingame emergency/flex issue.)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think its fair to be skeptical and not count on players returning from serious injury, but I also think you cant put ever pitcher who is returning from an injury into one category.  Personally, I dont play doctor.  I ask doctors and hedge.  Because I pay them, right? So instead of just assuming 0 from all of them, I would ask the team doctors what I can expect.  And if Dr says should be good to go, I would still feel uncomfy if I have 3 guys like that in my rotation and no depth , for sure. So I would be skeptical too.

Generally speaking, not this example.  Kutter Crawford is f'ing awesome.

Kutter may outpitch Cole in 2026, so would that still keep the Yanks one step up or two steps back.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

AND we've used a significant amount of trade chips! 

We might still have more deadline trade chips than others on this list, especially if we have unusually good health with our SP'ers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We might still have more deadline trade chips than others on this list, especially if we have unusually good health with our SP'ers.

The only problem is the Red Sox trade deadlines this decade -- for hopeful fans desperate for quality reinforcements for every stretch run -- has been 99% impotent.

I haven't forgotten about Schwarber, Bloom's best move almost by luck, considering what he had to give up, who also came here as damaged goods unable to immediately contribute. Schwarbs was called by the coaching staff and his teammates as a difference-maker in the batting order and around the batting cages... but I'm bitter the first Bregman before Bregman was allowed to walk.

I'm also on record blaming the trade deadline as the impetus for losing Devers, who put the sensitive Breslow on the spot in the press: "He knows what we need..." Raffy certainly meant upgrading the pitching -- something Brez finally did for the system in drafting dozens of pitchers last summer, right after he traded Devers.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The only problem is the Red Sox trade deadlines this decade -- for hopeful fans desperate for quality reinforcements for every stretch run -- has been 99% impotent.

I haven't forgotten about Schwarber, Bloom's best move almost by luck, considering what he had to give up, who also came here as damaged goods unable to immediately contribute. Schwarbs was called by the coaching staff and his teammates as a difference-maker in the batting order and around the batting cages... but I'm bitter the first Bregman before Bregman was allowed to walk.

I'm also on record blaming the trade deadline as the impetus for losing Devers, who put the sensitive Breslow on the spot in the press: "He knows what we need..." Raffy certainly meant upgrading the pitching -- something Brez finally did for the system in drafting dozens of pitchers last summer, right after he traded Devers.

 

I share the deep concerns about our constant unwillingness to make deadline moves.

To me, it is a reflection of our GM's refusal to overpay (Money and or prospects) for top talent. We have seen it played out in all the near miss FA non signings, but also in trade talks like Neto and Paredes, KMarte and others.

At the deadline, the overpay part of trade talks are amplified, hence the stand pat results, year after year.

There is merit in not grossly overpaying for "the one guy," and when you think maybe one guy might not be enough, anyway, it does make some sense to just say no, but at some point you just gotta agree to overpay.

On Schwarber, the thing was, it was NOT an overpay. We got him cheaply due to his injury. Aldo Ramirez was not a big chip. We got lucky, in some ways.

The Pivetta trade was a dump of Workman, so that does not count.

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The only problem is the Red Sox trade deadlines this decade -- for hopeful fans desperate for quality reinforcements for every stretch run -- has been 99% impotent.

I haven't forgotten about Schwarber, Bloom's best move almost by luck, considering what he had to give up, who also came here as damaged goods unable to immediately contribute. Schwarbs was called by the coaching staff and his teammates as a difference-maker in the batting order and around the batting cages... but I'm bitter the first Bregman before Bregman was allowed to walk.

I'm also on record blaming the trade deadline as the impetus for losing Devers, who put the sensitive Breslow on the spot in the press: "He knows what we need..." Raffy certainly meant upgrading the pitching -- something Brez finally did for the system in drafting dozens of pitchers last summer, right after he traded Devers.

 

Yes Devers had called out Breslow before, which was pretty much telling him to do his job, and get the team some pitching.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Kutter may outpitch Cole in 2026, so would that still keep the Yanks one step up or two steps back.

I dont think the pitching has enough  room for ins-season / breakout player improvement to move the needle vs where we are right now.  I think Kutter will pitch very well and bump a pitcher who also pitches very well.

I think the lack of elite bats will be our ceiling and you cant pitch and defense around that.

[drewski6]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The only problem is the Red Sox trade deadlines this decade -- for hopeful fans desperate for quality reinforcements for every stretch run -- has been 99% impotent.

I haven't forgotten about Schwarber, Bloom's best move almost by luck, considering what he had to give up, who also came here as damaged goods unable to immediately contribute. Schwarbs was called by the coaching staff and his teammates as a difference-maker in the batting order and around the batting cages... but I'm bitter the first Bregman before Bregman was allowed to walk.

I'm also on record blaming the trade deadline as the impetus for losing Devers, who put the sensitive Breslow on the spot in the press: "He knows what we need..." Raffy certainly meant upgrading the pitching -- something Brez finally did for the system in drafting dozens of pitchers last summer, right after he traded Devers.

 

Yes, but unlike some, I dont think Breslow has really cemented himself in the role.  He needs to (and I want him to) feel some heat. 

A GM who is complacent with a non top 10 offense needs to be run out of town. People understand that competition is good for players. You want players feeling the heat.  

For similar reasons , I want Breslow to feel some heat.  Last seasons deadline inactivity was absurd and sunk us.  Bloom got canned for the same reason.  Breslow shouldnt get a pass.  Theres always a next man up when it comes to GMs (more so than players).

 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think the pitching has enough  room for ins-season / breakout player improvement to move the needle vs where we are right now.  I think Kutter will pitch very well and bump a pitcher who also pitches very well.

I think the lack of elite bats will be our ceiling and you cant pitch and defense around that.

Teams usually will grossly overpay for pitching, so maybe we can swing a deadline deal- maybe through a third team- where we give a pitcher to a contender- they send prospects to team 2 and we get a big bat.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, but unlike some, I dont think Breslow has really cemented himself in the role.  He needs to (and I want him to) feel some heat. 

A GM who is complacent with a non top 10 offense needs to be run out of town. People understand that competition is good for players. You want players feeling the heat.  

For similar reasons , I want Breslow to feel some heat.  Last seasons deadline inactivity was absurd and sunk us.  Bloom got canned for the same reason.  Breslow shouldnt get a pass.  Theres always a next man up when it comes to GMs (more so than players).

I think Brez was working hard to get a big bat- KMarte, Paredes, Neto and maybe some we never heard about.

I think he knows the offense is going to be under a microscope and any failing will be on him. Call that "heat" or pressure to improve, but I think he knows where our weak spots are.

He will not be given a pass. he shouldn't get one.

I will say this: I've never seen a Sox GM make more moves and changes in less than 3 years, and I'm talking trades/signings and systemic & philosophical  changes. Now, one can argue the amount of trades/signings may not be a good thing, when so many were not top quality players or even somewhat quality- some were busts.

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Following the Durbin trade the Red Sox roster has crystalized into pretty much its final form.

I believe the starters will look like this.

C Narvaez

1B Contreras

2B Mayer

3B Durbin

SS Story

LF Duran

CF Rafaela

RF Anthony

DH Abreu

Anthony is going to need to take a step forward and claim that #3 or #4 lineup spot.

I'm not sure where Durbin and Mayer will slot into the batting order but hopefully they can be productive.

It looks solid from a defensive point of view but we're going to need to see offensive strides from guys like Anthony and Mayer to make it solid in terms of run scoring.

Am I missing anyone from my starting roster prediction? Agree or Disagree?

This but Abreu in RF, Anthony in LF and Duran at DH, and giving rest to the others.

[moonslav59]

DHing Abreu so Duran can play the OF is not an option.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Kutter may outpitch Cole in 2026, so would that still keep the Yanks one step up or two steps back.

I would doubt that even with Cole coming back from IBP. Kutter hasn't pitched in a long time. The last time he did pitch, he led the universe in HR's given up. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Theres not 50-50 betting on future lines, thats not how that works.  Its not like they want half the money to come in on yankees winning ws and half coming in against it. NObody is going to take the latter (at lesat not anything close to 50-50) because its like bet 1100 to win 100.  Sports gambling is stupid, dont get me wrong.  Gambling is for people who arent smart enough to make millions consulting.  I get all that.  But the fact that if you make a $100 bet on the NYY you win 1000, and same be on red sox you win 1700 - thats more because of a belief that there is more of a chance of yanks winning it all than us.

The gap I wouldnt say is insurmountable, I think the spread reflects this.  I dont bet because I trust Vegas to know where the line is.  The difference isnt huge.  But I cant honestly say that I agree that its neck and neck.

I chose my position carefully. The Yankee are one full step ahead of us at present.  Not 2 giant leaps, not even one giant leap.  But I cant say that I believe that we're neck and neck.  I would say in 5 game series theyd prob be 65% likely to take the series, of course, depending on who is healthy.

 

The lines and odds are set by how many people are betting on one outcome vs the others. The bettors set the odds-- not some vastly superior ranking system.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

DHing Abreu so Duran can play the OF is not an option.

It may happen once in a while to give Abreu a breather, but not regularly. 

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Teams usually will grossly overpay for pitching, so maybe we can swing a deadline deal- maybe through a third team- where we give a pitcher to a contender- they send prospects to team 2 and we get a big bat.

Will there be pitchers left to deal? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

51 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, but unlike some, I dont think Breslow has really cemented himself in the role.  He needs to (and I want him to) feel some heat. 

A GM who is complacent with a non top 10 offense needs to be run out of town. People understand that competition is good for players. You want players feeling the heat.  

For similar reasons , I want Breslow to feel some heat.  Last seasons deadline inactivity was absurd and sunk us.  Bloom got canned for the same reason.  Breslow shouldnt get a pass.  Theres always a next man up when it comes to GMs (more so than players).

Good post. Some fans worry about overpaying for upgrades at the trade deadline, afraid of mortgaging the future.

When is the future now? Alex Cora sure isn't shy every July to say the only future that matters is the coming October.

Some day they'll be a CBO who truly goes for it again in Boston like Dombrowski did every single summer he ran the Red Sox. He made his deadline moves from 2016-19, but just look at all the talent he traded away:

Aaron Wilkerson, Wendell Rijo, Jose Almonte, Luis Alejandro Basabe, Anderson Espinoza, Pat Light, Shaun Anderson, Gregory Santos, Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan, Stephen Nogosek, Rafael Rincones, Deven Marrero, Jalen Beeks, Ty Buttrey, Williams Jerez, Blake Swihart, Eli Prado, and Noelberth Romero.