Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

What finishing in 4th place "at best" means is that I believe it is more likely we will finish there more than anywhere else, but it is more likely that we finish last than 3rd or above.

I would challenge that assertion with a wager, but since I am on the plus side with my opinion that we would add a 2.5+ bWAR infielder, I assume that you would smartly decline my generous offer.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

What finishing in 4th place "at best" means is that I believe it is more likely we will finish there more than anywhere else, but it is more likely that we finish last than 3rd or above.

That's not what "at best" means.

[moonslav59]

Sox bWARs from 2025:

6.3 Crochet

4.7 Rafaela & Duran

3.8 Story

3.5 Chapman

3.2 Abreu

3.1 Anthony (half a season)

2.8 Durbin (w MIL)

2.6 Narvaez

2.5 Bello

2.5 Contreras (w STL)

2.4 Whitlock

2.0 Romy

1.1 Weissert

0.6 Early (4 starts)

0.2 mayer & Masa

___________________

fWAR

5.8 Crochet

3.9 Duran

3.8 Rafaela & Gray

3.0 Story

2.8 Contreras

2.7 Anthony & Narvaez

2.6 Chapman & Durbin

2.4 Abreu

2.2 Whitlock

1.9 Bello

1.5 Romy

1.1 Early

0.7 Weissert

0.4 Slaten, Kelly, Mayer & Eaton

 

 

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I would challenge that assertion with a wager, but since I am on the plus side with my opinion that we would add a 2.5+ bWAR infielder, I assume that you would smartly decline my generous offer.

Why would I be interested in a wager proposal from you when you declined to accept a very generous wager that I proposed?

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The O's have finally made some serious moves, but they started so far behind us, I'm not sure how close we can rate them.

We won 14 more games than they did in 2025 and 22 more by the Pythagorean numbers. IMO, we got better, so in theory, they have to make up more than 14-22 games.

I know I let my hatred towards the Yanks cloud my judgement, and I've been predicting their decline, mostly due to age factors, having a dumb manager and GM, and quite frankly spending on worse players than we have in recent years. I thought losing Soto was going to kill them, but they got a career year from Grisham and some ole fogies did better than I thought. I'm going to run my mantra again, this winter: I think the Yanks get worse in 2026.

BTW, we were in second place on September 10, 2025. It's not a great leap to think we will pass them.

TOR way outperformed their Pythagorean numbers (by 6 wins.) I'm not sure how much that matters, but it's a straw I grasped. I don't think losing Bichette & Bassitt and adding a questionable Cease & Oko is going to make up for that loss. Ponce could be a big help- or not.

I think 1st and 2nd place are well within our reach, and not so much because we made any great gains, but because the other teams failed to improve or even got worse. I also look at our key players positions on the prime bell curve and think we have a better chance of seeing improvement that they do.

The Yankees are a powerhouse of a team.  The Jays are very beatable.  PECOTA and the other projectors have Os either a tiny step ahead of us or behind us/practically tied. With the Jays closer to the Yanks than they are to us.  Personally, I think the Jays should be roughly equal to us and Orioles but Yanks still a significant step ahead.

[drewski6]

I expect the AL East to be a good 3-way battle for second but with the yanks out in front. I think the Yanks and Mariners are easily top 2 in AL, and then you can make a case for either us, Toronto, Orioles, Tigers for 3rd in AL - put personally I think its a reach to put Tigers there.  But I think the favorites in the AL are Yanks/M's.

We might be 3rd.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I almost wrote this, yesterday.

Aaron Judge was hurt last year pretty significantly. He just played through it and was still the best hitter by a mile and has had an offseason to recover.

Two sides to look at that.  If you are feeling optimistic - yes reinjury risk, yes maybe had they shut him down last year hed be more healthy today, yes hes still not 100% recovered (but hes more recovered since we saw him last when he was still pretty darn good)

That 6'8 body will probably crash out eventually. He plays hard in RF.  Hes prob too good  hitter to play the field. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That's not what "at best" means.

Thats what I said , then he regurgitated his definition of "at best", which remains incorrect.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I would challenge that assertion with a wager, but since I am on the plus side with my opinion that we would add a 2.5+ bWAR infielder, I assume that you would smartly decline my generous offer.

At this point, you would have won the wager.  But it would have had to go to arbitration if you claimed victory due to IKF (had we never gotten Durbin).  I remember it being left vague as in "a good or solid starting infielder", it could have been subsequently defined.  I know Fred tried to define it as .820 OPS which was too high.

[FredLynn]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats what I said , then he regurgitated his definition of "at best", which remains incorrect.

I gave you the correct meaning of the term and why I used it. Seems you and Moon don't understand what the term means. Here is the definition: 

"under the most favorable circumstances"

So....under "the most favorable circumstances" the FLOPS will IMO finish fourth. Under less than the most favorable circumstances they will finish dead last. 

I have an OUTSTANDING command of the English language, only exceeded by my understanding of the game of baseball!

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/at best#dictionary-entry-1

[FredLynn]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

At this point, you would have won the wager.  But it would have had to go to arbitration if you claimed victory due to IKF (had we never gotten Durbin).  I remember it being left vague as in "a good or solid starting infielder", it could have been subsequently defined.  I know Fred tried to define it as .820 OPS which was too high.

I then lowered my floor to .780 OPS. I would have won that bet too, had Brady been foolish enough to bet with me. We basically got more dumpster fodder, as I predicted.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Why would I be interested in a wager proposal from you when you declined to accept a very generous wager that I proposed?

Your offer that wanted a 3B with an .820 OPS (basically Jose Ramirez)?  Doesn't matter.  I told you they would add a 2.5 bWAR infielder, and they did.

[JoeBrady]

48 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

At this point, you would have won the wager.  But it would have had to go to arbitration if you claimed victory due to IKF (had we never gotten Durbin).  I remember it being left vague as in "a good or solid starting infielder", it could have been subsequently defined.  I know Fred tried to define it as .820 OPS which was too high.

I almost posted, after IKF, that Fred should've wagered.  I'd have conceded that IKF is not a 2.5 player without arbitration.  Fortunately, they added Durbin, and my 20 year undefeated streak against Fred remains intact.

[FredLynn]

47 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I almost posted, after IKF, that Fred should've wagered.  I'd have conceded that IKF is not a 2.5 player without arbitration.  Fortunately, they added Durbin, and my 20 year undefeated streak against Fred remains intact.

Really. And how many times have we actually wagered? None you say? Case closed. 
I presented a counter offer on which to wager. Get an OPS infielder hitting.800 then I graciously lowered my offer to .780. You wisely declined. You would have easily lost that bet as neither IF we obtained hits anywhere close to that. Basically we got more dumpster material. Again.
 

[Kimmi]

23 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Stop. 

Had you said that 2nd was as likely 4th, I might have been able to let that slide, but 1st place? Its also possible we finish last. Or at least finish 4th. It will be a competetive division, but give the competition a little more credit.

Note: I honestly do believe that 2nd is as likely as 4th.  I would say 1st: 7.5%, 2nd:25%, 3rd: 35% 4th:25%, 5th: 7.5%

I give the competition plenty of credit.  I didn't say that 1st was as likely as 4th, just that it's possible that we finish 1st.  I agree that it's also possible we finish last.  If I'm predicting right now, I'd say we finish in 2nd or 3rd place in the division. 

I just take exception to the statement that the Sox are a 4th place team, at best.

[Kimmi]

22 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I would if I thought they deserved it. I see three ALE teams that are likely better than us. I think we are better than the Rays. Sure-anything is possible and we could win the division. I don’t see it happening. We won’t score enough runs. 

That's a fair opinion.  I disagree with it, but it's fair.

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I give the competition plenty of credit.  I didn't say that 1st was as likely as 4th, just that it's possible that we finish 1st.  I agree that it's also possible we finish last.  If I'm predicting right now, I'd say we finish in 2nd or 3rd place in the division. 

I just take exception to the statement that the Sox are a 4th place team, at best.

I was trying to compare your optimistic leaning post to his pessimistic leaning post, and it didnt work and I apologize.

I agree, 4th place at best is nowhere near reasonable, and you were never unreasonable.

I think 4th is more realistic than I wish it was, but I think thats a function of the division's strength , and I think 3rd is still most likely. 2nd 3rd and 4th are all close to equal in likelihoods.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I gave you the correct meaning of the term and why I used it. Seems you and Moon don't understand what the term means. Here is the definition: 

"under the most favorable circumstances"

You posted....

What finishing in 4th place "at best" means is that I believe it is more likely we will finish there more than anywhere else

That's not the same as saying....

under "the most favorable circumstances" the FLOPS will IMO finish fourth. Under less than the most favorable circumstances they will finish dead last. 

"More likely than anywhere else" and "at best" are not equal statements.

Had you said the first statement right away, nobody would have said a peep.

[FredLynn]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You posted....

What finishing in 4th place "at best" means is that I believe it is more likely we will finish there more than anywhere else

That's not the same as saying....

under "the most favorable circumstances" the FLOPS will IMO finish fourth. Under less than the most favorable circumstances they will finish dead last. 

"More likely than anywhere else" and "at best" are not equal statements.

Had you said the first statement right away, nobody would have said a peep.

I stand by what I wrote. I believe that if everything goes well we will finish fourth. If not, last. If things go much better than I expect then above fourth is possible. 
This is all a matter of opinion. These so called “projections” by do called experts don’t mean a thing. They have to play the games. At the end of the year we will see who is right. 
It’s difficult as a knowledgeable fan to see that management and ownership are allowing this window to compete for a ring to slip by. They did only HALF the job. They fixed the rotation but basically ignored the lineup. It’s typical of the way the have been operating for many years.

”Full throttle”. 
Right. 🙄

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I stand by what I wrote. I believe that if everything goes well we will finish fourth. If not, last. If things go much better than I expect then above fourth is possible. 
This is all a matter of opinion. These so called “projections” by do called experts don’t mean a thing. They have to play the games. At the end of the year we will see who is right. 
It’s difficult as a knowledgeable fan to see that management and ownership are allowing this window to compete for a ring to slip by. They did only HALF the job. They fixed the rotation but basically ignored the lineup. It’s typical of the way the have been operating for many years.

”Full throttle”. 
Right. 🙄

I have no issue projecting us 3rd or 4th.

The issue was over the term you used. No biggie. Let's move on.

I'd predict 2nd, but I'm not sure who is first.

I see us, NYY and TOR as having about the same chance at 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

I do think the O's have improved a lot, but they were so far behind, I just don't see a jump that high. Unlike TOR and NYY, they do have the youth to match or exceed ours.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I have no issue projecting us 3rd or 4th.

The issue was over the term you used. No biggie. Let's move on.

I'd predict 2nd, but I'm not sure who is first.

I see us, NYY and TOR as having about the same chance at 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

I do think the O's have improved a lot, but they were so far behind, I just don't see a jump that high. Unlike TOR and NYY, they do have the youth to match or exceed ours.

More than likely a third place finish wouldn’t get us into the playoffs. It happened last year but I have to think it’s unusual for a third place team to make the playoffs two years in a row. And not making the playoffs is unacceptable. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

More than likely a third place finish wouldn’t get us into the playoffs. It happened last year but I have to think it’s unusual for a third place team to make the playoffs two years in a row. And not making the playoffs is unacceptable. 

The #1, #2, #4 & #5 AL teams by projected fWAR play in the ALE. (4 of the top 9 in MLB!)

Good thing we don't play the old schedule with super loaded divisional games anymore.

We do still play them more, so that will suppress the win totals for all ALE teams, in theory.

I think DET & SEA are legit contenders for 6 teams in the AL, but I think there is a significant drop off between DET and #7 HOU, and fWAR projections support that opinion.

The O's at #5 are 2.0 away from NYY (#2) and 3.3 ahead of HOU at #7.

The Tigers at #6 are 1.2 from BAL and 1.9 from BOS, but are 2.1 ahead of HOU.

I don't see HOU beating out both BOS and BAL- maybe one but not both. (We better top BAL!!!)

[FredLynn]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The #1, #2, #4 & #5 AL teams by projected fWAR play in the ALE. (4 of the top 9 in MLB!)

Good thing we don't play the old schedule with super loaded divisional games anymore.

We do still play them more, so that will suppress the win totals for all ALE teams, in theory.

I think DET & SEA are legit contenders for 6 teams in the AL, but I think there is a significant drop off between DET and #7 HOU, and fWAR projections support that opinion.

The O's at #5 are 2.0 away from NYY (#2) and 3.3 ahead of HOU at #7.

The Tigers at #6 are 1.2 from BAL and 1.9 from BOS, but are 2.1 ahead of HOU.

I don't see HOU beating out both BOS and BAL- maybe one but not both. (We better top BAL!!!)

Now lets play the games. I hope I am wrong but I don't see us making the playoffs this year. And we ABSOLUTELY are NOT legitimate contenders for a ring. Henry the Cheap and Breslow the Idiot are allowing this window to pass.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Now lets play the games. I hope I am wrong but I don't see us making the playoffs this year. And we ABSOLUTELY are NOT legitimate contenders for a ring. Henry the Cheap and Breslow the Idiot are allowing this window to pass.

I'd have been shocked if you said anything less negative.

Tomorrow the sun will rise.

[Michigan Adam2]

We can never lose if we dont give up any runs vs we can never win if we dont score year. Should be fun. I suspect we can surely be buyers before deadline if we have a weak link, either one we suspect now, or one that pops up by then. More than one are probably unlikely. 

[UtahSox]

7 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The Yankees are a powerhouse of a team.  The Jays are very beatable.  PECOTA and the other projectors have Os either a tiny step ahead of us or behind us/practically tied. With the Jays closer to the Yanks than they are to us.  Personally, I think the Jays should be roughly equal to us and Orioles but Yanks still a significant step ahead.

PECOTA 82.2 wins…… yikes could be 4th place in AL East. Not in the playoffs BTW behind Orioles,Astros, Tigers, Bluejays, and Rangers in Wildcard.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

PECOTA 82.2 wins…… yikes could be 4th place in AL East. Not in the playoffs BTW behind Orioles,Astros, Tigers, Bluejays, and Rangers in Wildcard.

I can't see the Rangers coming close, despite the easier schedule.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I can't see the Rangers coming close, despite the easier schedule.

PECOTA has twins at 78 wins 8 more than last year, Royals at 85.5 I just don’t see those either.  I Agree this team feels destined to be able to weather some injury storms, with not a lot of elite talent in lineup. But a lot of really good quality depth. I think Roman could be elite he’s also 21 years old, I expect setbacks……

There is length in the lineup, I’m getting excited to see how Cora moves the pieces around. The pitching is what has to be lights out… and I think we are set up to be solid. Bullpen needs some work, but I think we can address that later. Or go get Anthony Banda once he gets released. Going to be a fun/ possibly really fun season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I can't see the Rangers coming close, despite the easier schedule.

Texas' starting rotation is as good in names as New York's, but neither may have the quality depth to overcome injuries as Boston's. 

If everyone stay healthy, then all three teams have to be favored to make the postseason. 

And I say that without even looking at who the Rangers have in their starting line-up, since pitching is the  predominant reason for optimistic Red Sox fans whose hopes Spring eternal.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, UtahSox said:

PECOTA 82.2 wins…… yikes could be 4th place in AL East. Not in the playoffs BTW behind Orioles,Astros, Tigers, Bluejays, and Rangers in Wildcard.

PECOTA projected the Red Sox to win 79 games last season FWIW.