Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I have a question for the board.

All things considered.......would you consider this an offseason if the Red Sox in addition to their other moves add one of:

Ketel Marte

Bo Bichette

Alex Bregman

Yay...or Nay?

What do you mean by "consider this an offseason?" 

[Hugh2]

I have a question for the board.

All things considered.......would you consider this a good offseason if the Red Sox, in addition to their other moves add one of:

Ketel Marte

Bo Bichette

Alex Bregman

Yay...or Nay?

[Hitch]

Yay, just about.

The rotation is quite a bit better.

The line up is better.

Bullpen is worse. 

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I have a question for the board.

All things considered.......would you consider this a good offseason if the Red Sox, in addition to their other moves add one of:

Ketel Marte

Bo Bichette

Alex Bregman

Yay...or Nay?

Marte - really depends on the trade, but leaning towards good

Bo - good

Bregman - good, but really depends on the deal

[Old Red]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Marte - really depends on the trade, but leaning towards good

Bo - good

Bregman - good, but really depends on the deal

They all depend on the deal, and the trade, but I agree with this. The Red Sox could use all, and the Red Sox will probably have to pay more than they want to to get any of them.

[Old Red]

12 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i don't want him to go 4. Bregman is all about the money. let him go. You won't hear me cry about not bringing him back.  I guess the 40 million we gave him for 2/3 of the 2025 season wasn't enough for him. DON'T LET THE DOOR HIT YOU IN THE A$$ ON THE WAY OUT ALEX !!!

I agree with all about the money. He had offers last year from Houston, and even bigger from Detroit.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I have a question for the board.

All things considered.......would you consider this a good offseason if the Red Sox, in addition to their other moves add one of:

Ketel Marte

Bo Bichette

Alex Bregman

Yay...or Nay?

My vote is for Yay

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

.would you consider this a good offseason if the Red Sox, in addition to their other moves add one of:

Ketel Marte

Bo Bichette

Alex Bregman

Yes, it would be a good off-season.  But if we don't move an outfielder, it will feel like an incomplete off-season.  And that doesn't take into consideration whether or not I'll like the addition of one of those three.  That part depends on price.

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They all depend on the deal, and the trade, but I agree with this. The Red Sox could use all, and the Red Sox will probably have to pay more than they want to to get any of them.

Bo's market hasn't seemed to be really crazy and he's younger than the over 30 guys. It shouldn't be a hard pill to swallow IMO. He's a lesser talent today, but he'll be a better IFer than Marte or Bregman 3 years from now. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I have a question for the board.

All things considered.......would you consider this a good offseason if the Red Sox, in addition to their other moves add one of:

Ketel Marte

Bo Bichette

Alex Bregman

Yay...or Nay?

The Red Sox have to add another proven big league hitter to the batting order.

All your names listed are reportedly on the radar. Over and over again. We've got a thing that's called Radar Love.

"And it's a half past four and I'm shifting gears," lied every CBO/GM. 

Yay. An infielder with an All-Star bat added to a DH/1B with an All-Star bat basically puts us back where we opened last year (except the '25 DH only agreed to play 1B in SF).

But this time around we're also counting on a healthy Roman Candle to spark the fireworks from the start.

 

[mvp 78]

 

[Old Red]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bo's market hasn't seemed to be really crazy and he's younger than the over 30 guys. It shouldn't be a hard pill to swallow IMO. He's a lesser talent today, but he'll be a better IFer than Marte or Bregman 3 years from now. 

I agree. I know some are more down on BO. Of course the amount of years, which will be longer than Breggie would most likely be the big hang up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

January sucks -- the longest and coldest month.

February rocks -- the shortest month and the start of SPRING TRAINING.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

January sucks -- the longest and coldest month.

February rocks -- the shortest month and the start of SPRING TRAINING.

We've had falling iguana weather this week! Absolutely brutal down here. 😮‍💨

[FredLynn]

On 1/1/2026 at 7:52 AM, JoeBrady said:

And rightfully so.  Any of those guys could be on the trade block.  In addition, giving out any negative information would lessen our leverage in trades.

Right! Because we have been so very active on the trade (and FA) market.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Right! Because we have been so very active on the trade (and FA) market.

Yes, they have been active on the trade market.

1. Heyman for Hoppe

2. Ward for Bernardino

3. Hernandez for Murphy

4. Gray for Guerrero

5. Gray for Clarke, Fitts, PTBNL

6. Oviedo, Samiego, Guzman for Garcia and Travieso

7. Jackson for Grissom

8. Watson for Reimer

9. Bennett for Perales

10. Contreras for Dobbins, Fajardo, Aita

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, they have been active on the trade market.

1. Heyman for Hoppe

2. Ward for Bernardino

3. Hernandez for Murphy

4. Gray for Guerrero

5. Gray for Clarke, Fitts, PTBNL

6. Oviedo, Samiego, Guzman for Garcia and Travieso

7. Jackson for Grissom

8. Watson for Reimer

9. Bennett for Perales

10. Contreras for Dobbins, Fajardo, Aita

All the acquisitions are sure to put us in position to contend for a ring. Such an impressive group of top flight talent!

[notin]

40 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Right! Because we have been so very active on the trade (and FA) market.

The Sox haven’t been active on the trade front?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox haven’t been active on the trade front?

Pumpsie's posts tend to flop worse than the 2022 Red Sox TBF. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

Yeah it was always going to sting a little with Bogey, but I'd have rather we kept him at higher rate than Story and actually have him in the team (unlike Story outside of this past year) and have his leadership around - I don't think the Devers situation happens if he's here for example. 

I always think fangraphs is generous when it assigns "value" to a player's production, and apparently it is open market FA value given.

Here has been Bogey's "value" in 3 years with SDP:

$36M '23

$16M '24

$26M '25

$78M/3= $26M a year, which is about what many felt we might have gotten him to sign a year or two before he became a FA. (We had signed Story to $23.3M x 6, so $26M x 6 might have been possible.)

He's 33, now, and while he upticked some in 2025 after a bad '24 season, I'm not sure he'll be worth $26M x 3 more years.

No doubt, I'd have wanted him at $26M x 6, 4-5 years ago. He was worth a lot on 21 ($33M) and '22 ($48M) but even if we added the 6 years to start in '23, I'd have liked that deal.

I'll never be sure he would have accepted $26M x 4 back in '21 or '22.

I'm not ron up over losing him, but when you add his name to Lester, Betts, JD, Sale and so many others not replaced, it still sting.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pumpsie's posts tend to flop worse than the 2022 Red Sox TBF. 

Even without the Sox signing a single free agent yet, it’s not worth complaining about.  Six of the top ten MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unsigned.  And while Tucker and Bellinger are not fits, Bichette, Bregman, Valdez and Suarez all are.  

Not to mention a few others from the bottom 40 on that list might work as well…

 

[FredLynn]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox haven’t been active on the trade front?

Not for top quality players-the kind that will facilitate contending for a ring in 2026. Just more dumpster diving, as usual. Marginal players, complementary players who could help once we obtain more talented players. Did you want to debate that fact?

[Hitch]

Forever bewildering how few people know the meaning of the word 'fact'.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Yay, just about.

The rotation is quite a bit better.

The line up is better.

Bullpen is worse. 

I agree the rotation is better and the pen worse. We lost some rotation depth, but Tolle & Early look more like impact MLB SP'ers than they did last winter. Losing Gio hurt. Losing Buehler, May and a couple others might help. Losing Dobbins, Fitts and maybe Perales needs to be made up for with Tolle, Harrison for a full year and the returns of Crawford and Sandoval. All-in-all the rotation looks solid and deep. We are deep with 4-5-6 type SP'ers, and other teams might have better 4-5's, but having six to seven 4/5's helps a lot.

We might be able to handle some of the pen losses by converting a starter or two into relief roles, even if just for a season. I said the same, last year, and we barely did that, as we ended up needed to trade for May and rush promote Tolle & Early, then used de Leon and Criswell.

I have a big issue with thinking our line-up is better. While I believe is could be, we'd need an almost perfect confluence of luck, health and progressions for it to be better than 2025. I get how counting Devers and Lowe, who were not on the 2025 team for more than a 1/3 of the season is problematic when comparing this line-up to that, but they did give us some serious production value that cannot be ignored. The aspect of looking at what we lost from 2025 is that there are very few bad bats lost, except Toro.

Bats lost from 2025 by PA ranking:

4. Bregman .821 in 495 PAs (OUCH!)

8. Devers .905 in 334 (Yes, he was still a top 9 batter by PAs)

10. Toto .659 in 284 (This is an area we can gain with Contreras)

12. Refsnyder .838 in 209 (OUCH!)

17. N Lowe .790 in 119 PAs (more PAs than Casas!)

That's over 1050 good to great PAs lost and about 300 bad PAs lost, if you count 18 from Sabol and 9 from Garcia.)

The argument I hear most is that we will get a full season from Anthony in 2026, and that is exciting, assuming he stays healthy, but he was already a top 9 batter by PAs with 303, so maybe he replaces 300-350 of that 1050 lost. That leaves us with 700 PAs lost. Even if N Lowe gives us 700, he's about a .790 batter, which was what the lowest batter lost hit (Lowe at .790.)

Maybe Mayer gives us a boost, but can we count on him doing much better? We have many players in peak prime years or fast approaching them, and counting on progression is reasonable. They should outweigh the regressions by the very few post prime players we have, namely Story and Masa. Perhaps that brings us back to even with 2025, but that is assuming near perfect health for our best hitters or some gigantic jump by someone(s.)

Lets go by position and 2025's OPS:

.653 Catcher (Maybe Narvaez regresses some- maybe not. I think Wong hits better, so maybe we stay even. Perhaps Contreras plays some catcher and gives us a slight boost.) Let's project .673 (+20)

.691 1B: Let's assume Contreras helps improve the defense at 1B and jumps the team OPS to .791. (+100)

.670 2B: It's hard to project this slot. KC, DHam and others hit poorly, while Romy did well. It may be optimistic to think .670 (+0)

.736 SS: I have to project regression, here: .716 counting back-ups (-20)

.777 3B: Another hard one to project, but assuming Mayer & Co: .677 (-100)

This puts the offense even going into the OF and DH. I'm combining these because as we look now, we have 4 OF'ers and 3 OF slots. I project Duran would DH a lot, if we don't trade anyone. If Rafaela plays 2B, it wouldn't change that OPS projection much, and we'd go with Masa/Casas/Campbell at DH. A lot depends on where Anthony plays, but let's go with Duran at DH, Anthony in LF, Rafaela in CF, Abreu in RF for data purposes.

.781 LF: Anthony > Duran (+100)

.774 CF: Rafaela FT drops this to .724 (-50)

.822 RF: Abreu FT? is hard to project the same: I'll go .802 (-20)

.823 DH: Thanks mostly to Devers. Let's say Duran hits like his 2025 OPS and helps the DH slot bat .773. That's -60

These 4 slots combine for minus 30. Maybe they can stay even.

I'm seeing staying even as being optimistic. Being better is pushing it. The closeness highlights how adding one major bat can move us to plus on O, plus on D, plus on SP'ing and a big Q for the pen.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Even without the Sox signing a single free agent yet, it’s not worth complaining about.  Six of the top ten MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unsigned.  And while Tucker and Bellinger are not fits, Bichette, Bregman, Valdez and Suarez all are.  

Not to mention a few others from the bottom 40 on that list might work as well…

 

When you add some players mentioned in trades, like KMarte, Donovan, Vientos, Lodolo, Gore, Alcantara, Bubic, Ragans and others, there are still plenty of options out there. getting two would be great, but we'd have to make a trade for that to happen and not get the budget where JH says NO.

To get two, we'd have to pass on Bregman and Bichette, IMO.

Suarez or Okamoto could fit the budget model, and trading Duran ($7.8 AAV) for a solid SP like Lodolo ($5.2M) might keep us under the second tax line, which is maybe $24M away.

$25M a year for Suarez or Okamoto minus $2.6M on the trade, and we squeak under the 2nd line. Try to get CIN to take Hicks plus $6M a year and we'd save another $4M a year in AAV.

I think this looks like a significantly better team:

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Contreras 1B/C

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Suarez/Okamoto 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH/R Romy DH/2B or R Campbell DH

7. R Narvaez C/L Casas 1B (Contreras at C)

8. L Mayer 2B/ R Romy 2B

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, Campbell, DHam/Casas/Sogard/Eaton (TGray/Romero/Ward)

SP: Crochet, Gray, Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo (Tolle/Early)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Chapman. Harrison, Watson, Hicks/Moran (Kelly/Sandlin/Mullins/Uberstine/Drohan/Gamboa)

I LIKE THIS ROSTER!

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Not for top quality players-the kind that will facilitate contending for a ring in 2026. Just more dumpster diving, as usual. Marginal players, complementary players who could help once we obtain more talented players. Did you want to debate that fact?

Gray and Contreras are "marginal" or "complimentary?"

Gray is top 10 in SP fWAR in 2025, 2024 to 2025 or 2023-2025.

Contreras is a top 35 OPS guy for the last 2-3 years combined.

Sure, Oviedo, Watson and some others are marginal/complementary, but those are needed, too.

We are one big bat or two good players away from being significantly better than 2025.

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Not for top quality players-the kind that will facilitate contending for a ring in 2026. Just more dumpster diving, as usual. Marginal players, complementary players who could help once we obtain more talented players. Did you want to debate that fact?

Sonny Gray: 10th in SP fWAR '24-'25

Contreras: 17th in fWAR '24-'25 and 30th wRC+ from '24-'25 (tied with Corbin Carroll, Ryan O'hearn, Josh Naylor)

As others have said, adding Bo/Breggie/Marte to that makes this offseason a GOOD offseason. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Not for top quality players-the kind that will facilitate contending for a ring in 2026. Just more dumpster diving, as usual. Marginal players, complementary players who could help once we obtain more talented players. Did you want to debate that fact?

Yes.

First of all, neither Contreras nor Gray are “marginal” players, unless your definition of “marginal” means “not superstar”. 
 

Contreras OPS+ of 123 makes him a good replacement for the OPS+ of 128 they lost in Bregman.  If Contreras is a dumpster dive, what exactly did they lose in Bregman?

Sonny Gray was a 3.5 fWAR pitcher brought in to replace Lucas Giolito, a 2.0 fWAR pitcher.  So if Gray was a dumpster dive, what was Giolito?   

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Forever bewildering how few people know the meaning of the word 'fact'.

Or the meaning of the word “can’t,” often frequently confused with the word “hasn’t”…

[mvp 78]

Red Sox have reportedly made an "aggressive" offer to Bregman according to Buster Olney.