Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we didn't miss out on Schwarber ??

 

Seeing as we didn't put an offer in for him, clearly not. 

[Randy Red Sox]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

8th according to Cots.

the site i found on google said 12th

[Randy Red Sox]

17 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Seeing as we didn't put an offer in for him, clearly not. 

i am sure we offered him a 1 yr deal

[FredLynn]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I can sometimes be a stickler for semantics, but I keep hearing hos JH is "cheap," when he actually has spent a lot for two decades and for the the the last 2-3 years. The Devers extension was signed in JAN 2023, but it I believe it started in 2024, so more like 2 years.

It sucked from 2019 (not re-signing or replacing Kimbrel & Kelly) through the Betts trade and countless stars leaving without in-kind replacements, but the spending has returned. 

We can argue it should be more, but saying he's not spending or is cheap is not needed (nor true) to make that point.

Of course he is spending.....some. But not enough, and not wisely. You just can't keep dipping into to rehab dumpster and expect to pull out roses. As for Devers, he did spend a lot. Where is the money he spent on him now? Mostly in his POCKET. But hey-the Henrys have to eat too, right?

[notin]

26 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Of course he is spending.....some. But not enough, and not wisely. You just can't keep dipping into to rehab dumpster and expect to pull out roses. As for Devers, he did spend a lot. Where is the money he spent on him now? Mostly in his POCKET. But hey-the Henrys have to eat too, right?

My New Year’s resolution is to take folks even less seriously when they blatantly say John Henry is running the Red Sox with his own money…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the site i found on google said 12th

Cots is the go-to site for payroll.  I find the layout so intuitive that, even if one were to question the difference between different sites, it's easy to rectify.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

Seeing as we didn't put an offer in for him, clearly not. 

And imho, we shouldn't have.  DH is by no means an issue.  Even if Yoshi disappeared, Duran would step in.  Improving DH ranks a distant 3rd to adding either a 2B or 3B, plus adding a #2 SP.

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

and not wisely

This relates back to one of my earlier comments.  Some fans think the JH is cheap because he won't sign their favorite player.  And their favorite player is usually the shiniest object, not the best value or the best fit.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i am sure we offered him a 1 yr deal

Unless it was $100mill for one year, that’s the same as not making an offer…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

This relates back to one of my earlier comments.  Some fans think the JH is cheap because he won't sign their favorite player.  And their favorite player is usually the shiniest object, not the best value or the best fit.

It’s not that Hes cheap because he won’t sign their favorite player; it’s because he won’t do it every year.

Cot’s had the Sox active payroll at $195mill last year and $248mill for the 40-man and CBT payments.  For 2026, they’re forecasting $190-220mill for the active roster.  The Sox have brought in expensive players like Contreras and Gray (partially subsidized) and yet we still have people asking “Where is Devers’ money?!?” like the team is holding it back.   It turns out you can spend $30mill in MLB without getting a $30mill player.

 

 

(All corrections of my financial numbers accepted.  Correct away, gents…)

[JoeBrady]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

It turns out you can spend $30mill in MLB without getting a $30mill player.

Absolutely.  I feel strongly that, if we sign Bregman at the price/deferrals I mentioned, that Bregman will out-perform Alonso on a dollar-for-dollar basis.  FG projects Bregman as 1 fWAR better in 2026.  I'm not sure how the aging curves will project that advantage over 5 years, but I am pretty comfortable wagering that Bregman's WAR/$$$ will exceed Alonso's.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely.  I feel strongly that, if we sign Bregman at the price/deferrals I mentioned, that Bregman will out-perform Alonso on a dollar-for-dollar basis.  FG projects Bregman as 1 fWAR better in 2026.  I'm not sure how the aging curves will project that advantage over 5 years, but I am pretty comfortable wagering that Bregman's WAR/$$$ will exceed Alonso's.

I figured Alonso to be the more likely choice since Bregman would get a much better contract.  Alonso’s contract was bigger than MLBTR’s prediction of 4/$110mill.  They have Bregman at $160/6…

[Randy Red Sox]

Just now, notin said:

I figured Alonso to be the more likely choice since Bregman would get a much better contract.  Alonso’s contract was bigger than MLBTR’s prediction of 4/$110mill.  They have Bregman at $160/6…

that should take the Sox out of it then. No way I give Bregman 6 yrs

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It’s not that Hes cheap because he won’t sign their favorite player; it’s because he won’t do it every year.

Cot’s had the Sox active payroll at $195mill last year and $248mill for the 40-man and CBT payments.  For 2026, they’re forecasting $190-220mill for the active roster.  The Sox have brought in expensive players like Contreras and Gray (partially subsidized) and yet we still have people asking “Where is Devers’ money?!?” like the team is holding it back.   It turns out you can spend $30mill in MLB without getting a $30mill player.

 

 

(All corrections of my financial numbers accepted.  Correct away, gents…)

you conveniently forget to include the other guys now off the books. EG:  Gioloto $$ basically cover Gray's $$,  Currently there is 71 million off last yr's payroll with Devers and Bregman gone. Even if they sign Bregman for 25 million that still saves 15 million plus Devers. And yes I know several players like Anthony are getting raises but almost all MLB teams have similar.  There is no way I sign Bregman for any more than 3 yrs with possibly a MUTUAL 4th yr and NO opt outs unless of course the team gets one too.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

And imho, we shouldn't have.  DH is by no means an issue.  Even if Yoshi disappeared, Duran would step in.  Improving DH ranks a distant 3rd to adding either a 2B or 3B, plus adding a #2 SP.

yeah because those guys are comparable alright. The Yoshida signing was a disaster from day 1 and is killing the team now.,

[Old Red]

40 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely.  I feel strongly that, if we sign Bregman at the price/deferrals I mentioned, that Bregman will out-perform Alonso on a dollar-for-dollar basis.  FG projects Bregman as 1 fWAR better in 2026.  I'm not sure how the aging curves will project that advantage over 5 years, but I am pretty comfortable wagering that Bregman's WAR/$$$ will exceed Alonso's.

As I said the other day for the next two years some fans will compare the Con Man’s stats to Alonso’s stats, and if Breggie resigns they will compare Breggie’s stats to Raffy’s stats.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you conveniently forget to include the other guys now off the books. EG:  Gioloto $$ basically cover Gray's $$,  Currently there is 71 million off last yr's payroll with Devers and Bregman gone. Even if they sign Bregman for 25 million that still saves 15 million plus Devers. And yes I know several players like Anthony are getting raises but almost all MLB teams have similar.  There is no way I sign Bregman for any more than 3 yrs with possibly a MUTUAL 4th yr and NO opt outs unless of course the team gets one too.

And you conveniently forget how raises work.  Crochet will make like $23mill more this year than last year.  Anthony’s actual raise is like $3mill, but his AAV goes up to about $12.5mill.   Lots of players have these increases built into their contracts.  And we haven’t even gotten into arbitration raises.

Not to mention, probably best to not accuse people of “conveniently” forgetting stuff while viewing Devers as a $30mill contract swing.  We took a rather big contract back in that deal.  It’s closer to a net change of $20mill once you remember the existence of Jordan Hicks, and that net change is less than the raise for Crochet.  

Bottom line is Cot’s - while not official does seem to be recognized among better resources - has the Sox payroll around what it was last year, possibly slightly ahead…

[notin]

36 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

yeah because those guys are comparable alright. The Yoshida signing was a disaster from day 1 and is killing the team now.,

I stand by Yoshida.  If he can stay healthy, I think he can maintain an .850 OPS or better, especially if he is platooned…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Of course he is spending.....some. But not enough, and not wisely. You just can't keep dipping into to rehab dumpster and expect to pull out roses. As for Devers, he did spend a lot. Where is the money he spent on him now? Mostly in his POCKET. But hey-the Henrys have to eat too, right?

But you and others keep saying he's not spending or is "cheap." Spending unwisely is a different story and is more on Brez than JH, anyway. Sure, JH might be insisting on no long term deals, so that ties Brez's hands, but there are some good deals out there that are not long, and we have made some good ones and some bad ones (more from Bloom than Brez.)

Was the Breggie deal unwise?

Was the Chapman deal and extension unwise?

Was the Crochet trade and extension unwise?

Were the Devers, Bello, Rafaela, Campbell & Anthony extensions unwise?

Of course, some unwise moves have been made, and of course that is what we always hear from you about- and only those.

The Buehler signing was a disaster, but it was far from a dumpster dive. He was a better bet than Kluber, Richards and paxton were- perhaps combined.

The Sale trade was a disaster, but made some sense at the time, and apparently the money saved was used to sign Gio, who did give us some value back, as without him we don't make the 2025 playoffs.

The Priester trade was a "dumpster dive" by MIL, and that worked out poorly for us, but some of our dives like for Romy, Wilson, Matz and others did fine.

Look, I'm not very optimistic either on JH's future spending plans, but they guy has spent a ton in the two decades in BOS. He's pulled back and splurged a few times. Based on our ranking in revenues, we can cry and cry that we need to spend more, but these rich guys are in this to make money and maximize profit. Focusing on one rich guy and acting like he's the evil one is misguided. Saying he's cheap is just plain untrue.

I'm not defending JH, but we are are about 8th or 9th in spending for 2026 and have dished out a lot of new cash since the Devers extension kicked in. We've lost a lot, too, including the Devers dump, but we are a top 8 or 9 spender, right now. That's not cheap.

If you wanna talk about unwise spending, talk about Bloom & Brez.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I stand by Yoshida.  If he can stay healthy, I think he can maintain an .850 OPS or better, especially if he is platooned…

At his age, I'd project .790 to .815 tops- maybe ,815-.830 if only platooned.

[moonslav59]

Spotrac Tax Payroll:

2025: Sox were 7th at $249M

2026: Sox are currently 8th at $235M, but we are $16M from #7 ATL and $21M from SDP. I'm not sure we get any higher ranked and HOU is about tied with us, sowe could drop to 9th, at worst.

TOR just signed Okamoto and will pass the NYY for 4th. NYY might re-sign Bellinger, so the top 5 will likely not be touched by any other team.

Top 10, as of now

342 LAD (really 425 after tax)

303 NYM (343 after tax)

301 PHI (340 after tax)

280 NYY (pre Bellinger) 300 after tax

279 TOR (pre Okamoto) 292 after tax

255 SDP (258 after tax)

250 ATL (251 after tax)

235 BOS (not over tax line, right now)

234 HOU

206 SFG

[moonslav59]

Gotta think Okamoto to TOR means no Breggie to TOR, but does it also mean no Bichette?

TOR +

Cease

Okamoto

Cody Ponce

Tyler Rogers

TOR-

Bichette

Bassitt

S Dominguez

Scherzer

Kiner-Falefa

Ty France

Did I miss anybody?

How much better has TOR gotten?

Cease > Bassitt

Ponce > Scherzer

Bichette> Okamoto

Rogers <>Dominguez

France & K-F <> _______

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I figured Alonso to be the more likely choice since Bregman would get a much better contract.  Alonso’s contract was bigger than MLBTR’s prediction of 4/$110mill.  They have Bregman at $160/6…

I predicted Alonso going to the RS in the top-50 contest.  But I think that the teams that sign guys earlier, are paying a premium to close the deal.  IMO, if the Os only offered $110M/4, then Alonso has no motivation to sign.  It should work the opposite as time drags on.  Teams that are interested in Bregman won't wait until March to make up his mind.

[JoeBrady]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How much better has TOR gotten?

0.2 fWAR, depending on how you treat Scherzer.

[moonslav59]

Apparently, Okamoto got $60M/4, including a $5M signing bonus.

That's an AAV of $15M, which the Sox could have afforded and stayed below the second line. My guess is the 4th year kept us out of the winning the bidding war.

He's 29 and turns 30 in June, so he'll turn 33 in his final year.

I doubt we get Bregman or Bichette, so to me, it's Suarez or someone via trade.

I think we've traded away enough prospects, so any trade should/might involve an OF'er. If we trade for a #2 SP'er, if might include and OF'er plus one from Sandoval, Crawford or Harrison, but not Tolle, Early, Valera or Witherspoon.

Just my take.

MLBTR projected $60M/4 for Okamoto. They project $63M/3 for Suarez. Other 3 or less year deals they project:

$38M/2 Bassitt (I don't see the Sox signing him.)

$30M/2 Realmuto (I doubt it.) $14M/2 Caratini (not likely)

$25M/2 Nick Martinez or Zack Littell ???

$18M/2 S Dominguez (maybe)

$14M/2 Willi Castor (can play 2B, so...???)

$22M/1 Verlander or $15M/1 Scherzer (doubtful)

N/A projections: J Wilson, Kopech, Moncada, J Montgomery, Quintana, Sugano

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

And you conveniently forget how raises work.  Crochet will make like $23mill more this year than last year.  Anthony’s actual raise is like $3mill, but his AAV goes up to about $12.5mill.   Lots of players have these increases built into their contracts.  And we haven’t even gotten into arbitration raises.

Not to mention, probably best to not accuse people of “conveniently” forgetting stuff while viewing Devers as a $30mill contract swing.  We took a rather big contract back in that deal.  It’s closer to a net change of $20mill once you remember the existence of Jordan Hicks, and that net change is less than the raise for Crochet.  

Bottom line is Cot’s - while not official does seem to be recognized among better resources - has the Sox payroll around what it was last year, possibly slightly ahead…

Well since DD was fired in the 6 years since our record is 442-428 with 2 playoff appearances. Remember JH has stated a number of times that his goal and mission was for the Red Sox to compete for a WS EVERY YEAR !!  At best we have been true contenders once maybe twice if you count last year {I don't}

I feel that we have basically tread water these past 6 years and as of this date there has been very little to change that. Personally I could care less if we spend another dime. I don't believe for a second that JH has the same passion as he did before firing DD and as a result as a fan I don't have same passion I did as a LIFETIME  Red Sox fan. Put Mayer at 3B and a combo of Romy/Hamilton at 2B and let's get on with it but for God Sakes stop saying we have interest in every decent FA  out there. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Well since DD was fired in the 6 years since our record is 442-428 with 2 playoff appearances. Remember JH has stated a number of times that his goal and mission was for the Red Sox to compete for a WS EVERY YEAR !!  At best we have been true contenders once maybe twice if you count last year {I don't}

I feel that we have basically tread water these past 6 years and as of this date there has been very little to change that. Personally I could care less if we spend another dime. I don't believe for a second that JH has the same passion as he did before firing DD and as a result as a fan I don't have same passion I did as a LIFETIME  Red Sox fan. Put Mayer at 3B and a combo of Romy/Hamilton at 2B and let's get on with it but for God Sakes stop saying we have interest in every decent FA  out there. 

No one is happy with the past 6 years, but the DD years are never coming back.  Henry let DD spend anything and everything he wanted, and at the end of the 2019 season, Henry didnt like it.  Actually before the end of 2019.

The Sox could soend more, but the problem is, free agents usually suck.  Theyre almost all on the wrong side of 30 and want to be paid well past their usefulness.  I’ve been saying for years teams only sign them for PR reasons.  And if you look at the bulk of the complaints, Theyre about Henry not SPENDING enough.  That’s the panacea apparently -just throw money at it.  

[moonslav59]

fangraphs projects a 1.8 fWAR fro Okamoto (.775 OPS)

FA Top OPS projected:

4.4 Tucker

4.0 Bregman & Bichette

3.0 Bellinger

2.6 E Suarez

1.8 Realmuto 

1.5 Arraez & Bader

1.4  Ozuna

1.2 Willi Castro, L Rengifo, V Caratini, M Andujar

1.1 Moncada

Via trade?

4.8 KMarte

4.3 Seager

3.8 Hoerner

3.5 Chisholm

3.4 Bogaerts (had to list him)

3.0 Donovan, 2.4 Bohm, 2.2 Paredes, 2.0 M McLain & Arenado

1.8 Vientos

Pitchers: 

FA 3.7 Valdez, 3.3 Ra Suarez, 2.4 Gallen, 2.1 Bassitt, 1.7 Littell & Leiter

1.6 Verlander, 1.5 Jon Gray, 1.4 Scherzer, 1.3 N Martinez & Civale, 1.2 Giolito

Trade: 4.2 Ragans, 3.4 Ryan & Nate, 3.2 P lopez, 2.5 Alcantara & Kikuchi, 2.4 Lodolo & L Castillo

2.3 M Keller & B Singer, 2.0 E Cabrera, 1.8 B Garrett, 1.7 Ober, 1.6 R Ray, 1.4 K Senga

[Randy Red Sox]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

No one is happy with the past 6 years, but the DD years are never coming back.  Henry let DD spend anything and everything he wanted, and at the end of the 2019 season, Henry didnt like it.  Actually before the end of 2019.

The Sox could soend more, but the problem is, free agents usually suck.  Theyre almost all on the wrong side of 30 and want to be paid well past their usefulness.  I’ve been saying for years teams only sign them for PR reasons.  And if you look at the bulk of the complaints, Theyre about Henry not SPENDING enough.  That’s the panacea apparently -just throw money at it.  

I don't know about you but I am sick of SIX years of mediocrity

[Hitch]

26 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

....but for God Sakes stop saying we have interest in every decent FA  out there. 

Virtually every team checks in with every free agent and multiple trade candidates. That you're getting worked up by this or annoyed by the asinine 'interest kings' tag is on you.