Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hitch said:

They've been linked to two things when it comes to us - controlled starting pitching. Mayer.

It doesn't matter what we'd like to send to make our financial life easier, trades don't work like that. It's what Arizona wants, and it isn't many of the above if reports are true. 

While three team trades are not common, they do happen.

Trading Mayer for KMarte improves one slot, but keeps the 3B slot open, as Mayer is no longer a 3B option.

I have no idea is PHI would send Painter to AZ for Duran, but he'd be that "controllable SP'er." Something like that might work. Maybe not.

If it wasn't for the money issue, we could just sign Bregman, Bichette or maybe Suarez, We could dump Masa and DH Duran, or trade Duran plus Crawford/Harrison/Sandoval for a #2.

There is talk of trading for Donovan, and he'd be an improvement, but I'm not sure he'd be enough or what STL wants for him. I would not give an OF'er for him.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

While three team trades are not common, they do happen.

Trading Mayer for KMarte improves one slot, but keeps the 3B slot open, as Mayer is no longer a 3B option.

I have no idea is PHI would send Painter to AZ for Duran, but he'd be that "controllable SP'er." Something like that might work. Maybe not.

If it wasn't for the money issue, we could just sign Bregman, Bichette or maybe Suarez, We could dump Masa and DH Duran, or trade Duran plus Crawford/Harrison/Sandoval for a #2.

There is talk of trading for Donovan, and he'd be an improvement, but I'm not sure he'd be enough or what STL wants for him. I would not give an OF'er for him.

I don't think our pieces are as glamourous or valuable as you may think they are. A 3 team deal would be tough with that in mind. I'm pretty sure Marte just isn't going to happen. 

I really like Donovan. Really like him. Seems a great clubhouse guy. But the price it will take to get him makes it a non-starter to me. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I don't think our pieces are as glamourous or valuable as you may think they are. A 3 team deal would be tough with that in mind. I'm pretty sure Marte just isn't going to happen. 

I really like Donovan. Really like him. Seems a great clubhouse guy. But the price it will take to get him makes it a non-starter to me. 

What is St. Louis asking for?

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I don't think our pieces are as glamourous or valuable as you may think they are. A 3 team deal would be tough with that in mind. I'm pretty sure Marte just isn't going to happen. 

Word is Brez is asking a ton for Duran, so maybe he values him more highly than I or BTV does.

I think Rafaela is worth more than BTV says he is, so maybe I'm a homer, there. I think BTV gets Duran and Abreu pretty closely. I do think Duran is a nice fit for PHI. They might value Painter more highly than Duran+ Harrison or Sandoval. (Duran & Crawford would be too much, according to BTV, but maybe PHI could add another piece to AZ if they got Kutter.)

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

What is St. Louis asking for?

I don't know specific players, only that journos keep saying it would have to be a haul. Not to mention half the sport has been linked to him so the Cards will have their pick of the bunch and any offer will need to be at least substantial, and likely an overpay. And it will need to be prospects as the Cards are in rebuild mode.

As much as I like the guy, we shouldn't be overpaying or depleting the farm further for Donovan.

[Hitch]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Word is Brez is asking a ton for Duran, so maybe he values him more highly than I or BTV does.

I think Rafaela is worth more than BTV says he is, so maybe I'm a homer, there. I think BTV gets Duran and Abreu pretty closely. I do think Duran is a nice fit for PHI. They might value Painter more highly than Duran+ Harrison or Sandoval. (Duran & Crawford would be too much, according to BTV, but maybe PHI could add another piece to AZ if they got Kutter.)

An assumption, but I would guess the Phillies value Painter quite a bit more than Duran and Crawford/Harrison/Sandoval.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I really like Donovan. Really like him. Seems a great clubhouse guy. But the price it will take to get him makes it a non-starter to me. 

He won't cost as much as KMarte, and his OBP is very nice, but is he really enough to replace Bregman?

He's another LHB.

He turns 29, soon- not bad, when you consider he has one more arb year left.

He should make about $5.8M in arb. That fits with JH but also reflects his value as not being all that great for an arb 2 guy.

He's one of MLB's most consistent offensive players:

.361 OBP (never more than .020 below career mark)

.411 SLG (after rookie year has been between .417 and .422)

.772 OPS (career low: .759/ career high .787)

He's had a negative dWAR over the last 3 seasons. He's played mostly 2B (-5 DRS career/ +3 OAA, but +7 from '23-'24) and at 3B he's +6 DRS and +3 OAA, all from his rookie season plus.)

He's supposed to be a great clubhouse guy, so that helps.

I'm not sure he's the best guys we can get.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Hitch said:

An assumption, but I would guess the Phillies value Painter quite a bit more than Duran and Crawford/Harrison/Sandoval.

Probably so. We won't give Duran + Tolle/Early, so it's probably a no go.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He won't cost as much as KMarte, and his OBP is very nice, but is he really enough to replace Bregman?

He's another LHB.

He turns 29, soon- not bad, when you consider he has one more arb year left.

He should make about $5.8M in arb. That fits with JH but also reflects his value as not being all that great for an arb 2 guy.

He's one of MLB's most consistent offensive players:

.361 OBP (never more than .020 below career mark)

.411 SLG (after rookie year has been between .417 and .422)

.772 OPS (career low: .759/ career high .787)

He's had a negative dWAR over the last 3 seasons. He's played mostly 2B (-5 DRS career/ +3 OAA, but +7 from '23-'24) and at 3B he's +6 DRS and +3 OAA, all from his rookie season plus.)

He's supposed to be a great clubhouse guy, so that helps.

I'm not sure he's the best guys we can get.

Agreed with all of the above. His main value seems to be he is multi positional and that he is by all accounts a great clubhouse guy.  He would be a great piece, but not for a club in our position. A finishing piece, not the extra bat our lineup badly needs.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I don't know specific players, only that journos keep saying it would have to be a haul. Not to mention half the sport has been linked to him so the Cards will have their pick of the bunch and any offer will need to be at least substantial, and likely an overpay.

Half the sport is in on Duran, too, but you feel we are overvaluing him.

Why wouldn't a GM have to overpay for Duran?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Agreed with all of the above. His main value seems to be he is multi positional and that he is by all accounts a great clubhouse guy.  He would be a great piece, but not for a club in our position. A finishing piece, not the extra bat our lineup badly needs.

I kinda feel like we have already done enough trading prospects, so I don't think trading some for Donovan is a good idea, either.

I will say that STL rarely goes total rebuild mode, but our ML players or ML ready players don't seem to match up. I would not trade an OF'er for him. I'm not sure a Crawford-Donovan deal would be accepted.

[vegasbob]

51 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The only real logjam is Yoshida. I think both Bres and Cora would love to have Duran, Raf, Anthony and Abreu rotating around the positions, getting people off their feet for a day or two a week while still having their bats/speed on the base paths. 

If they could drop Yoshida somehow, they'll keep the four of them. 

I contend that the Sox will play  Yoshida to start the season and hope he shows enough output to warrant a trade, with salary subsidy,  by late July .  Or if he cannot contribute sufficiently to be traded then he will be in a zone that even JH will eat the salary for second half'26 and gamble on '27 being a  short year. 

That tactic also allows Campbell to get his feet on the ground in Worcester for a couple months under an improved mindset, no pressure,  waiting for the callup based on an injury or Yoshida's departure.   Campbell riding the bench in Boston makes no sense at all in early 2026.    

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

According to BTV, it might take Bello & Rafaela.

I wouldn't trade Rafaela straight-up for Marte.  I'd make a wager that he out-performs Marte over the next 6 years, and wouldn't be surprised if Rafaela doubled Marte's WAR/$$$ production.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

I contend that the Sox will play  Yoshida to start the season and hope he shows enough output to warrant a trade, with salary subsidy,  by late July .  Or if he cannot contribute sufficiently to be traded then he will be in a zone that even JH will eat the salary for second half'26 and gamble on '27 being a  short year. 

That tactic also allows Campbell to get his feet on the ground in Worcester for a couple months under an improved mindset, no pressure,  waiting for the callup based on an injury or Yoshida's departure.   Campbell riding the bench in Boston makes no sense at all in early 2026.    

I think you are right.

Waiting it out also allows Casas to work his way up from rehabbing at AAA.

If Masa does well, maybe we trade Casas or Campbell. If either is doing well, their trade value would be much higher than an $18M DH guy, even if he's hitting .825.

I'm pretty sure we have at least one more significant move to add to the 26, so until we see what that is, we may be talking about things that will be out of the question, soon. (Not that this ever stopped us... LOL)

[moonslav59]

These are my BTV trades with the closest thumbs up vs thumbs downs for both sides:

Rafaela, Harrison & DHam for Donovan and Pages

Yoshida, Hicks, Campbell, Crawford & Witherspoon for Donovan, Pages & Arenado. (LOL)

Sox: Joe Ryan/ Twins: Painter & Mullins/ PHI: Duran & Harrison

Only pluses on both sides:

Duran & Hicks for Paredes, Sousa & Matthews

Duran, Narvaez & Crawford for Wm Contreras, Peralta, Koenig & Gasser

Rafaela & Romy for Lodolo and McLain

&

Duran & DHam for Lodolo & McLain

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think you are right.

Waiting it out also allows Casas to work his way up from rehabbing at AAA.

If Masa does well, maybe we trade Casas or Campbell. If either is doing well, their trade value would be much higher than an $18M DH guy, even if he's hitting .825.

I'm starting to rethink the nomenclature for OPS.

Guys aren't literally "hitting" .825, but more like reaching and launching .825.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm starting to rethink the nomenclature for OPS.

Guys aren't literally "hitting" .825, but more like reaching and launching .825.

How about accumulating .825?

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Wouldn't Rafaela's value in CF to another team far outweigh his value to us at 2B?

(Now, if we don't add a 2Bman, the answer would be close to a yes, but trading him for an equal player, who defends 2B better and hits better makes more sense.)

i could easily see the sox going with Mayer at 3B and Romy at 2B with Hamilton as backup.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't trade Rafaela straight-up for Marte.  I'd make a wager that he out-performs Marte over the next 6 years, and wouldn't be surprised if Rafaela doubled Marte's WAR/$$$ production.

everything i have heard recently is that AZ really doesn't want to deal Marte anyway..  unless we drastically overpay this is just another of the ongoing "Sox are interested in this guy" fiasco

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

everything i have heard recently is that AZ really doesn't want to deal Marte anyway..  unless we drastically overpay this is just another of the ongoing "Sox are interested in this guy" fiasco

I wasn't sure they'd move him unless they were keen on adding Bregman and moving Lawlar to 2nd, which doesn't make sense to me.  I'm not a Lawlar fan, but if they keep him, then Marte at 2nd and Lawlar at 3rd makes the most sense.

I'm also not convinced that AZ wants another lefty outfielder.  I know that Thomas has not progressed at all, but it just feels too early to give up on him.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i could easily see the sox going with Mayer at 3B and Romy at 2B with Hamilton as backup.

I could see that, too, but if it's all about money, we could trade an OF'er, save money and have better 2Bman/3Bman and overall starting 9 on offense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about accumulating .825?

We're using a lot of syllables... maybe just "earned" as in earned WAR.

[Hitch]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Half the sport is in on Duran, too, but you feel we are overvaluing him.

Why wouldn't a GM have to overpay for Duran?

Don't put words in my mouth. I have never said we are overvaluing Duran. I think we should be holding out for maximum value and keep him if we don't get him. 

 

[Hitch]

14 hours ago, vegasbob said:

I contend that the Sox will play  Yoshida to start the season and hope he shows enough output to warrant a trade, with salary subsidy,  by late July .  Or if he cannot contribute sufficiently to be traded then he will be in a zone that even JH will eat the salary for second half'26 and gamble on '27 being a  short year. 

That tactic also allows Campbell to get his feet on the ground in Worcester for a couple months under an improved mindset, no pressure,  waiting for the callup based on an injury or Yoshida's departure.   Campbell riding the bench in Boston makes no sense at all in early 2026.    

Possibly, but that doesn't help us now in our need for extra payroll flexibility. And he'll only be DH, not playing the field. I'm not sure how much value a light hitting DH can build in 3 months, especially with his contract and history. 

Campbell should start in AAA. He's barely in my thoughts at all outside of trading away. He still has a lot to prove that he's deserving of a 26 man spot.

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Don't put words in my mouth. I have never said we are overvaluing Duran. I think we should be holding out for maximum value and keep him if we don't get him. 

 

Maximum value for Duran would have come better last offseason, and not this offseason.

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Maximum value for Duran would have come better last offseason, and not this offseason.

For then, yes. Now we must get maximum value for now, or keep him.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

For then, yes. Now we must get maximum value for now, or keep him.

There are reports out there that Brez is asking for more than teams want to pay.

[Hugh2]

I don't think an outfielder maybe named Duran or other gets traded until Kyle Tucker signs, maybe even Bellinger too. 

You'd expect the losers of those bidding wars to ramp up their efforts to attain someone like Duran. 

[JoeBrady]

45 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think an outfielder maybe named Duran or other gets traded until Kyle Tucker signs, maybe even Bellinger too. 

You'd expect the losers of those bidding wars to ramp up their efforts to attain someone like Duran. 

Good point.  I'd say just keep working the phones.  If something big pops up, at any position, then you can circle back to anyone you were talking to.

[Larry Cook]

18 hours ago, Hitch said:

The only real logjam is Yoshida. I think both Bres and Cora would love to have Duran, Raf, Anthony and Abreu rotating around the positions, getting people off their feet for a day or two a week while still having their bats/speed on the base paths. 

If they could drop Yoshida somehow, they'll keep the four of them. 

Something involving arenado and yoshida can work if cash or prospects is used to offset the payroll difference