Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

How much of that is injury related 

2 years, though.

He's older now, too.

I would not have paid $13M for him. $11M x 2 for Weaver looks better. $19M/2 for Finnegan, too.

$8M/1 for Gregory Soto LHP was right up their alley.

[vjcsmoke]

I read a new rumor today involving a trade with the Mets.

Potentially the Mets acquire Brayan Bello and Jarren Duran for a package that includes players such as Mark Vientos or SP Koda Sengai. Prospects might include IF Jett Williams or Brandon Sproat.

Do you bite on this trade? What would make sense for both the Red Sox and the Mets if they were to make a deal?

Article: Rumor opens door for NY Mets to make big trade with Red Sox for two young stars

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/23/2025 at 12:44 PM, Kimmi said:

I do not disagree Randy.  Let's hope we get the #2 version of Gray, but there really is no way of knowing.  Perhaps Bello can step it up and be a bona fide #2?

Our rotation can potentially be very strong.  It could also potentially be mediocre after Crochet.  I'd still like to see another top of the rotation starter added.  For me, that's a higher priority than adding another big bat.

In general the Sox have never seemed to prioritize pitching but it does seem that CB is trying to change that. A true #2 SP likely costs more that Jh is willing to allow Breslow to spend..  Since DD was fired the Sox have always gone with the lower cost option and that is not going to change soon..

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/23/2025 at 1:54 PM, Hitch said:

I do fault people for thinking that on times. We've been in the top 3 spenders in the league for the majority of his ownership. I've argued that there is context and reasons why he wanted to hold off the spending the last few 4/5 years - mostly through terrible and costly decision making.

If we don't spend any more this winter I'll have problems with it myself, now that we're in entering the window. But I don't believe for one second we're done and believe we will spend more. And if being near $260m isn't enough for people, I don't know what to say to them, outside of - that certainly isn't cheap.

I am really getting weary of people just stating how much the payroll IS. The real fact of the matter is that costs are going up and the Sox were once

in the top 3-4 in payroll and are now somewhere between 8-12.  That is what has fans upset. Revenues are huge for JH but he seems content to spend just enough to keep the Sox around 85- 90 wins but not enough to be a serious WS contender despite numerous times that his goal is for the Sox to be a WS contender EVERY year.  That certainly has not happened . 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/22/2025 at 8:31 PM, JoeBrady said:

But that was not a stipulation of Randy's assessment.  Many teams might have signed FAs, but not many have signed any important FAs.  Of the top-50 FAs, only a very few teams have added an outside FA.  A couple of teams have FAs that accepted a QO, and a couple of teams have re-signed their own FAs, but maybe only 8 teams have signed a top-50 FA from another team.

Joe if you are as smart as I tank you are you know what I mean.

[Randy Red Sox]

The thing that pi$$es me and many other fans off is how it seems we are always in on these top FA’s. But somehow always fall short and end up with plan B on much less costly deals" 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

In general the Sox have never seemed to prioritize pitching but it does seem that CB is trying to change that. A true #2 SP likely costs more that Jh is willing to allow Breslow to spend..  Since DD was fired the Sox have always gone with the lower cost option and that is not going to change soon..

There is still a Grand Canyon size hole at the number 2 spot in the rotation! 
 

I believe Tolle needs time to tighten up the slider and change up. If he can do that, he will be answer at number 2, in 2027! 
 

 

 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

I read a new rumor today involving a trade with the Mets.

Potentially the Mets acquire Brayan Bello and Jarren Duran for a package that includes players such as Mark Vientos or SP Koda Sengai. Prospects might include IF Jett Williams or Brandon Sproat.

Do you bite on this trade? What would make sense for both the Red Sox and the Mets if they were to make a deal?

Article: Rumor opens door for NY Mets to make big trade with Red Sox for two young stars

The author was a little weak on details.  He mentioned Senga, but I think there is a -0- chance the RS would be interested in him.  He costs real money and might not be as good as some of our current guys.  As I've said before, I would do Duran for Tong + Vientos.  Bello might be a good addition to that deal.  Theoretically, we might have a few SPs that might supply 70-80% of Bello supplies.  But the NYMs have to kick in something serious.  For Duran + Bello, the opening bid is McLean + Vientos, and would likely need to include Benge or Jett Williams.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Joe if you are as smart as I tank you are you know what I mean.

But you didn't really have a point.  Correct if I'm wrong, but I believe you said that we are the only AL team not to sign a FA.  But to make that correct, you have to include maybe 10 teams that signed low-level FAs that are little more than waiver-bait.

[oldtimer]

15 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

I read a new rumor today involving a trade with the Mets.

Potentially the Mets acquire Brayan Bello and Jarren Duran for a package that includes players such as Mark Vientos or SP Koda Sengai. Prospects might include IF Jett Williams or Brandon Sproat.

Do you bite on this trade? What would make sense for both the Red Sox and the Mets if they were to make a deal?

Article: Rumor opens door for NY Mets to make big trade with Red Sox for two young stars

Rumors are prolific and results are not. I'll wait to see what actually happens. Our needs are known and I believe Breslow is trying to fill those. He also has to be careful to make wise moves where we get value in return  for resources used. Third base (Bregman is still possible?), 2nd base (options remain), #2 starter ( most difficult to fill), backup catcher (Don't need a whiz-band here).

[Randy Red Sox]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

But you didn't really have a point.  Correct if I'm wrong, but I believe you said that we are the only AL team not to sign a FA.  But to make that correct, you have to include maybe 10 teams that signed low-level FAs that are little more than waiver-bait.

i got the quote from an article on MLBTR . I guess you are not as smart as I thought you were. But don't worry the Sox will sign for of the M/L type FA's.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I guess you are not as smart as I thought you were.

That seems to be a reasonable assumption, in most non-baseball matters at least.

[moonslav59]

16 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

There is still a Grand Canyon size hole at the number 2 spot in the rotation! 

While I had wished we did better than Sonny Gray, this point is subjective.

fWAR Projections in the ALE

#1: Crochet 5.7, Cease 3.8, Fried 3.6, Bradish 3.1, McClanahan 2.9

#2: Gray 3.9, Gausman 2.8, Rasmussen 2.8, Rogers 2.4, Rodon 2.2

***As you can see, these projections have Gray as the second best ace in the ALE- ahead of Cease, Fried, Bradish and McClanahan! Hell, Bello is just 0.2 away from Rodon as the 5th best #2 in the ALE!

#3: Bieber 2.5, Pepiot 2.1, Bello 2.0, Baz 2.0, Cole 1.9

#4: Ponce 2.2, Schlitter 1.8, Matz 1.7, Sandoval 1.6,  Kremer 1.3

#5: Yesavage 2.1, Warren 1.5, Crawford 1.1, Boyle 1.0, Wells 0.9

*** Our 3-4-5 slots are all middle of the pack.

SP Depth: Early 1.0, Berrios 1.0, Gil 1.0, Povish 0.8, Seymour 0.8, Tolle 0.7, Oviedo 0.6, Harrison 0.5

***We are the only ALE team with more than 1 depth starter over 0.5, and we have FOUR!

As much as having a better #2 SP'er would have been nice, our rotation and rotation depth is solid from top to bottom, and even below the bottom with Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin, Mullins, Gamboa, Bennett, Holobetz & Rivera on the arm.

Our pitching is fine.

We need a big bat- RHB would be best or one with good splits vs LHPs. I've given up hoping for 2, and I guess Contreras is good enough to equal Refsnyder and Lowe's losses.

We need to replace the Devers/Bregman loss.

We need a 2Bman or 3Bman. It can be 2B/3B big bat- all in one add.

To me, we are one huge addition away from being better than 2025. KMarte would do it for me.

Bregman or Bichette would get us close to even- maybe better.

Suarez, Viento or Donovan would need a Lodolo to make us better.

 

[moonslav59]

37 players have signed contracts with an AAV of $30M or more:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/the-largest-mlb-contracts-by-aav.html

Bregman T6

Devers 24th

Price T25th

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

37 players have signed contracts with an AAV of $30M or more:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/the-largest-mlb-contracts-by-aav.html

Bregman T6

Devers 24th

Price T25th

Two of them Henry didn't want to do and dumped them as soon as he could. Eeegads... that only cost us Mookie, and Raffy.

Why change now: ink Breggie and use him up while he can still contribute. Then make him a "player" coach to get something out of the back end -- and put it in writing so he knows he'll have some kind of guaranteed longterm future in a Red Sox uni (as Manager Pedroia's batting coach).

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Two of them Henry didn't want to do and dumped them as soon as he could. Eeegads... that only cost us Mookie, and Raffy.

Yes, indeed.

Price played 4 years, was traded, sat our the covid season, then retired after his 7 years ran out.

Devers was promoted at age 20 and played with BOS into his 9th season, but was "dumped" shortly after the ink was dry on his 10 year mega-deal.

The Bregman optout contract was done with a purpose, but I'm sure the Sox would not have minded had he stuck around. The deferred money made a difference.

I'm curious if we seek out other highly deferred contracts.

These three mega deals kinda dwarf the next tier of deals the Sox have signed since the Manny contract signed before JH's era began. There has also been a noticeable difference between FA contracts and extensions signed.

FAs since Manny's  $160M/8 deal in 2001:

$142/7 Crawford (also dumped not too long after signing) A big contract back in 2011

$140M/6 Story (kinda midlevel for '22)

$110M/5 JD Martinez (kinda big for a DH)

$95M/5 Pablito & $88M/4 HRam in 2015

$90M/5 Yoshida in 2023 (w $10M fee)

$83M/5 Lackey in 2010 (with the famous add on year)

$73M/7 Rusney Castillo in 2014 (KaPOW!)

$70M/5 Drew in 2007 (borderline midlevel at the time)

$68M/4 Nate in 2019 (more like an extension coupled with Sale's extension was the end of big spending for a long time.)

$52M/6 Dice K (plus massive fee in 2007)

The next tier was a big drop to Renteria at $40M/4- talk about a quick dump!

___________________

Extensions:

$314M/10 Devers

$154M/7 AGon 2011

$145M/6 Sale

$120M/6 Bogey 2020 (opted out)

$110M/8 Pedroia in 2014

$68M/4 Beckett 2011 (was traded afterwards)

$52M/4 Papi in 2007

$41M/4 Youk 2009

$41M/6 2009 Pedroia

$38M/3 Lowell 2008

$30M/3 Beckett 2007

$30M/4 Buchholz 2012

$30M/5 Lester 2009

__________________

Arb/pre-arb extensions:

$130M/8 Anthony 2026

$60M/8 Campbell 2025

$55M/6 Bello 2024

$50M/8 Rafaela 2024

$19M/4 Whitlock 2023

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Arb/pre-arb extensions:

$130M/8 Anthony 2026

$60M/8 Campbell 2025

$55M/6 Bello 2024

$50M/8 Rafaela 2024

$19M/4 Whitlock 2023

Wonder how much Casas and Mayer turned down... or if they're forever after branded as damaged goods and have to live with Jody Reed regrets into old age.

If I recall, Reed turned down a big offer from the Dodgers at the advice of his agent, and never sniffed such riches again. 

Pretty sure Nomar turned down Campbell's $60M, but for 4 years... over two decades ago. And then the Red Sox sent him packing.

[harmony]

Is Alex Bregman a "done deal" for the Arizona Diamondbacks?

https://x.com/AZSports/status/2004602775838359694

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/alex-bergman-done-deal-arizona-232246453.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQFxnF0sj9c

Probably not.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Wonder how much Casas and Mayer turned down..

I often wonder if adversity softens up their payroll demands.  Mayer is just starting out, so no biggie.  But Casas might be starting to be seen as damaged goods.  The eclectic outlook is only tolerated when you mash.  If I were him, I would surely be looking to lock up some guarantees.  He probably hasn't made $6M yet, including the signing bonus and his 2026 salary.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Is Alex Bregman a "done deal" for the Arizona Diamondbacks?

https://x.com/AZSports/status/2004602775838359694

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/alex-bergman-done-deal-arizona-232246453.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQFxnF0sj9c

Probably not.

I think not.

1-If the author had solid insight, I think he'd have included at least some details.  He doesn't even mention the number of years.

2-The price tag would put them at an all-time high.

3-And the fit is weak.  If think they really want to start Lawler.  If they add Bregman, then Lawler has to go to 2B, where he doesn't have a lot of reps, and then move Marte, with teams knowing they have no leverage.

My guess is that this is just Boras trying to invent interest.

[moonslav59]

If AZ signed Bregman, we can trade for KMarte, who is about the same age and much cheaper.

He has more power, too.

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If AZ signed Bregman, we can trade for KMarte, who is about the same age and much cheaper.

He has more power, too.

And offer who? They want pitching. We have trade quite a lot of pitching away, I cant see them sending more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, Hitch said:

And offer who? They want pitching. We have trade quite a lot of pitching away, I cant see them sending more.

Me, neither.  As of now, the potential of young pitching may be the only way the 2026 Red Sox could improve on the squad that opened 2025.

Last year's Opening Day #2, 3 and 4 hitters are or may be gone: Devers, Bregman, Casas.

Contreras replaces Raffy or Tris (if he's not ready). A full year of Anthony should give Boston a boost, but his '25 production - 8 HR, 32 RBI, .859 OPS - isn't much different than Reysnyder, another Red Sox batter who just left - 9 HR, 30 RBI, .838 OPS. 

Even if they sign Bregman or Bichette, is the line-up any better? We'll be counting a lot on health and a 21-year-old becoming a superstar.

On the mound, Sonny Gray and Oviedo replace Giolito and Buehler. That's a reasonable wash, with a shot at hubcaps sparkling since Oviedo is still under 30. 

But if one or both of the young arms of Early and Tolle solidify the rotation, the Sox could be true contenders (assuming the bullpen doesn't regress too much). That's who they can't trade for Marte...

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Me, neither.  As of now, the potential of young pitching may be the only way the 2026 Red Sox could improve on the squad that opened 2025.

Last year's Opening Day #2, 3 and 4 hitters are or may be gone: Devers, Bregman, Casas.

Contreras replaces Raffy or Tris (if he's not ready). A full year of Anthony should give Boston a boost, but his '25 production - 8 HR, 32 RBI, .859 OPS - isn't much different than Reysnyder, another Red Sox batter who just left - 9 HR, 30 RBI, .838 OPS. 

Even if they sign Bregman or Bichette, is the line-up any better? We'll be counting a lot on health and a 21-year-old becoming a superstar.

On the mound, Sonny Gray and Oviedo replace Giolito and Buehler. That's a reasonable wash, with a shot at hubcaps sparkling since Oviedo is still under 30. 

But if one or both of the young arms of Early and Tolle solidify the rotation, the Sox could be true contenders (assuming the bullpen doesn't regress too much). That's who they can't trade for Marte...

Our line up is going to be fine, if we are healthy!  
 

the huge hole is a number 2 starting pitcher in the rotation! fix that hole and we are serious contenders in 2026! 
 

[notin]

On 12/24/2025 at 8:41 PM, Larry Cook said:

There is still a Grand Canyon size hole at the number 2 spot in the rotation! 
 

I believe Tolle needs time to tighten up the slider and change up. If he can do that, he will be answer at number 2, in 2027! 
 

 

 

How is Sonny Gray not a #2?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Our line up is going to be fine, if we are healthy! 

It ain't what they call rock and roll

And the Sultans play Creole. Creole.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

And offer who? They want pitching. We have trade quite a lot of pitching away, I cant see them sending more.

Involve a third team, if they don't want Duran or Rafaela.

Duran to PHI, Painter and Harrison to AZ.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

How is Sonny Gray not a #2?

We hashed this over and over, at the time of the trade.

Some stats and metrics show he's a #1 or #2, if you go by top 30 or top 60.

Some show he's a #3 or #4.

I'd say he's okay as a #2. I'd have preferred better. Even Brez avoided saying he was a #2. Gray is old and showing some decline. With older pitchers I don't count three year averages as much as the last 1-2 years, but here are some key numbers with various recent sample size.

2025 Only: (you need a sample size of 80 IP to get the total to near 150.)

3.6 fWAR is 20th- a clear #1 or great #2!

3.39 FIP ranks 22nd, again a clear #1. (He's 54th in WHIP- a lower #2.)

104 ERA- ranks 82nd and that is a lower level #3. (91st is a #4.)

I'd call him a #2 for 2025 but worry if he declines more, he's more like a #3 (with Bello.)

2024 to 2015 (150+ IP qualifies)

77th in ERA- at a pedestrian 100. (#3)

41st in WHIP (#2)

7.4 fWAR is an amazing 14th and a top tier #1!

3.26 FIP is also 14th.

2.95 xFIP ranks 5th behind Crochet, Skubal, Sale & Skenes!!!!!

I'd say that makes him a solid #2 with worries about serious age decline.

[Bellhorn04]

On 12/23/2025 at 5:37 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The someone who said it wasn't the Red Sox exec who signed Kluber.

Yeah, I think Kluber was the worst one-year contract in Red Sox history.  But a lot of that was Bloom having no Plan B for Kluber flaming out like he did.  Just bad work by Bloom all around.  Of course he probably had a tight budget so some of it is on Henry too!      

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, notin said:

How is Sonny Gray not a #2?

He's a #2 over his career...only concern is he's getting on a little.

Of course what we call a #2 some guys call a #3 or even a 4...expectations tend to exceed reality.