Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

D-backs reportedly want young pitching for Marte -- of course they do. So it doesn't really matter which outfielder the Red Sox trade for Marte, because the cost will ultimately also include Tolle or Early...

... just like it will to pry aces like Ryan or Ragans from their teams.

Breslow loaded up drafting college pitchers last summer, but rebuilding clubs who are willing to deal top of the rotation starters want MLB-ready arms in return. 

Tolle and Early will be the first two guys rival GMs ask for in any trade talks initiated by the Red Sox at the Winter Meetings. Guaranteed. If Brez doesn't land a big name, it's because Boston decided to hang onto the two young lefties who may both take regular turns in the rotation by mid-season... for minimum wage.

[Hitch]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Carrabis isn't the media, he's a supahfan. 

Of course he's media. He has one of the biggest podcasts around, routinely has players and FO members on to interview. He is hired by NESN and is a contributor to MLB Network. He isn't a journalist. He very much is part of the media, even if we don't like it. 

Regardless, the original point stands, there were a lot of heat for the FO to talk more and be open with the fans, from many different angles.

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's not the way FG calculates a player's decline.  They take a look at every player that has ever played, and they extrapolate the numbers.  It's entirely possible that any given player will beat the odds.  But I'd make a substantial wager that the total fWAR of all of 2025 32 y.o. players will be lower than they will be in 2026.

Aging is undefeated.

I'd like to see the numbers on players that did better at ages 30-31 than 28-29 and what they did from 32-35 vs those that were already declining from 28-31.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

D-backs reportedly want young pitching for Marte -- of course they do. So it doesn't really matter which outfielder the Red Sox trade for Marte, because the cost will ultimately also include Tolle or Early...

... just like it will to pry aces like Ryan or Ragans from their teams.

Breslow loaded up drafting college pitchers last summer, but rebuilding clubs who are willing to deal top of the rotation starters want MLB-ready arms in return. 

Tolle and Early will be the first two guys rival GMs ask for in any trade talks initiated by the Red Sox at the Winter Meetings. Guaranteed. If Brez doesn't land a big name, it's because Boston decided to hang onto the two young lefties who may both take regular turns in the rotation by mid-season... for minimum wage.

Harrison & Dobbins are ML ready, young starters.

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Aging is undefeated.

That's not how it works. There are exceptions, so it's not "undefeated."

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Of course he's media. He has one of the biggest podcasts around, routinely has players and FO members on to interview. He is hired by NESN and is a contributor to MLB Network. He isn't a journalist. He very much is part of the media, even if we don't like it. 

Regardless, the original point stands, there were a lot of heat for the FO to talk more and be open with the fans, from many different angles.

The supahfan is such a journalist that goes after the FO soooo hard that he just loves having his boy Sam on the show. The guy who really calls out the FO on that pod is Coley Mick and the general community dislikes half of his takes even though he's right and 7' tall. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's not how it works. There are exceptions, so it's not "undefeated."

I started running again and it doesn't feel that way to me! 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Harrison & Dobbins are ML ready, young starters.

Back end starters. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Harrison & Dobbins are ML ready, young starters.

That's who Brez will counter with, and then AZ, Minny, KC and Milwaukee will say, "hang on, I got another call..."

[UtahSox]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That's who Brez will counter with, and then AZ, Minny, KC and Milwaukee will say, "hang on, I got another call..."

If that’s true, and I’m not saying it isn’t….. we absolutely got corked trading Devers.
Hicks, (boat anchor)

Harrison,

what turned into Dustin May. 

bad bad 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

If that’s true, and I’m not saying it isn’t….. we absolutely got corked trading Devers.
Hicks, (boat anchor)

Harrison,

what turned into Dustin May. 

bad bad 

It’s pretty rare to offload a super star and his entire contract and actually get back something worthwhile beyond salary relief.  Harrison looks mildly impressive in very limited action and the Sox probably had to take back Hicks’ contract just to get him…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s pretty rare to offload a super star and his entire contract and actually get back something worthwhile beyond salary relief.  Harrison looks mildly impressive in very limited action and the Sox probably had to take back Hicks’ contract just to get him…

That was actually a really polite reply with elaboration instead of just saying, "Salary dump."

I'm impressed with you this holiday season as a non-Grinch poster. Keep that chin up next week when a Breslow and Bailey Circus flop-sided trade makes no sense or cents on BTV.

[UtahSox]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s pretty rare to offload a super star and his entire contract and actually get back something worthwhile beyond salary relief.  Harrison looks mildly impressive in very limited action and the Sox probably had to take back Hicks’ contract just to get him…

Per spotrac we are still on hook for 7.5m in 2034 of devers deal. I think I’m mourning just how perfect he would have been in this lineup with healthy RA19, and healthy AB2. I guess the deal is incomplete until we see if JH actually replaces his bat with 2 High end bats like a Schwarber/P. Alonso + AB2/Bo Bichette…... As of now though it’s a bad deal for us. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/18493/rafael-devers

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to see the numbers on players that did better at ages 30-31 than 28-29 and what they did from 32-35 vs those that were already declining from 28-31.

Taking everyone from 2010-2011, with a fWAR of 3.0 or better, they suffered on average, a decline of 0.9 per year.  There is a lot of variance in here.

• Pujols -3.3
• Holliday -2.1
• Bautista +0.6
• Texeira -2.4
• Uggla -2.7
• Granderson -0.5
• Beltre +2.2
• Zobrist +1.2

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Back end starters. 

...and not the headliners in the trade. That would be Campbell or Duran.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Taking everyone from 2010-2011, with a fWAR of 3.0 or better, they suffered on average, a decline of 0.9 per year.  There is a lot of variance in here.

• Pujols -3.3
• Holliday -2.1
• Bautista +0.6
• Texeira -2.4
• Uggla -2.7
• Granderson -0.5
• Beltre +2.2
• Zobrist +1.2

Certainly age decline is real and prevalent. It is not, however, undefeated, as some players do better after age 32.

Eventually, age sinks us all.

Dwight Evans:

122 OPS+ up to age 31.

139 OPS+ ages 32-37 (It was 143 from ages 35-37!)

131 from age 33 to the end of his career at age 39.

It's rare: I get that.

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

D-backs reportedly want young pitching for Marte -- of course they do. So it doesn't really matter which outfielder the Red Sox trade for Marte, because the cost will ultimately also include Tolle or Early...

... just like it will to pry aces like Ryan or Ragans from their teams.

Breslow loaded up drafting college pitchers last summer, but rebuilding clubs who are willing to deal top of the rotation starters want MLB-ready arms in return. 

Tolle and Early will be the first two guys rival GMs ask for in any trade talks initiated by the Red Sox at the Winter Meetings. Guaranteed. If Brez doesn't land a big name, it's because Boston decided to hang onto the two young lefties who may both take regular turns in the rotation by mid-season... for minimum wage.

Tolle and Early are hard to part with , for sure.  I can see it falling apart because Marte is unique/special, so they prob feel justified insisting on one of our top 2 pitching prospects vs one of our top 5 pitching prospects.

I can also see the Sox holding on to the pitchers for the reasons you mention.  One thing Im not sure, is how close Arizona sees themself.  If they are looking to get back to playoffs immediately, they could have interest in somone like Sandoval/Cutter K , especially if we eat money.  Of course would have to include Harrison or something.  But yeah, I can see it falling apart.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I started running again and it doesn't feel that way to me! 

Good for you, at 41 Im also aging in reverse.  Drinking less and working out more.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

If that’s true, and I’m not saying it isn’t….. we absolutely got corked trading Devers.
Hicks, (boat anchor)

Harrison,

what turned into Dustin May. 

bad bad 

Oh for sure.

[drewski6]

On 12/3/2025 at 3:24 AM, UtahSox said:

This sounds like my nightmare opening day lineup. No bregman, no Alonso, Okamoto at 1st and Mayer at 3rd with Romy at 2b?? I’ll be so freaking bummed out if that’s our lineup. 

I like this guy

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Had a totally out of right field thought…..

trade Rafaela, Harrison, and Sandoval for Marte. (Even deal)

Sign Bader to a 4yr 68m deal (+17 aav )

Trade Abreu and Yoshida for a piece of cheese (-22aav)

sign Pete Alonso 4yr 128m (32aav)

lineup with RA19, JD16, Bader, Marte, Alonso, and Story would be awesome.

and still have room to trade for legit SP2.

Not bad but personally, Id rather just pay the extra 5m, and keep abreu and yoshida in lieu of Bader.  Partly because injuries are so pervasive these days, and even if there isnt a spot for Yoshida right now, theres a good chance that in Aug/Sept we're in a dog fight for a playoff spot and we have a few injuries , some to our better hitters and Yoshida is hitting like 4 of 5 and doing decent.

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Certainly age decline is real and prevalent. It is not, however, undefeated, as some players do better after age 32.

Eventually, age sinks us all.

Dwight Evans:

122 OPS+ up to age 31.

139 OPS+ ages 32-37 (It was 143 from ages 35-37!)

131 from age 33 to the end of his career at age 39.

It's rare: I get that.

It may be rare to have your best years after age 31, but dont let people move the conversation on you. Thats not the debate.  Marte has 2 top 5 MVP finishes, and a third year (last year) where he got votes (but was not in the top 5).  Over the last 3 years, he has the HIGHEST OPS among 2b (all of them), and even if a little decline, he's still very much a weapon and still very much one of the best hitting second baseman and hes adequate with the glove.

Simply put, he doesnt have to have a career year for him to help us.  Some people just look at WAR, age and salary and just want youngest/cheapest.  But this overlooks the fact that you have a finite number of roster spaces and at-bats.  You always pay a premium for stars, and of course, having the best players is highly correlated to winning.  Otherwise, theyd be detriments.  You should be willing to pay more to go from a 30 value guy to a 40 value guy than to go from a 5 value guy to a 15 value guy, because stars win.

Heres my point: Lets say someone is worth 40m and is signed to a contract that pays them 30m for the next 3 years.  Thats 10 excess value / year x 3 years = 30 excess value.  Lets say that dude is 32 , so could even regress a bit.  But hes still awesome at present..

Yes, this dude and his 30 excess value is worth more than 5 guys who are all 20m in value paid 10m over lets say 5 years. While those guys if you add them up give you more value for each buck spent (and are younger) that excess value is nerfed because its spread out.

ANother words, if you have an 8 WAR superstar signed for 3 more years and trade him for  2 separate players with 4 WAR each (signed for 3 more years), you are not better off.  If you flip him with 2 separate dudes who are 3 war players and signed for 4 years each, sure you are getting more WAR but you are spreading it out among the more players, more years and thus diluting it.

Its too simplistic to just look at age and WAR and salary.  Younger and cheaper isnt always better.  More WAR for the buck isnt always better either.

Any GM would rather have a 40m value guy making 30m than a 15m value guy making 1m.  Because one is a superstar and elite talent and will carry you further, especially with roster size constraints.

You dont trade a 40 HR bat for 5 10 HR bats and act like you gained 10 HRs.  Thats not how it works, obviously.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

...and not the headliners in the trade. That would be Campbell or Duran.

If Campbell is headlining a trade, don't expect much back.

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Certainly age decline is real and prevalent. It is not, however, undefeated, as some players do better after age 32.

Eventually, age sinks us all.

Dwight Evans:

122 OPS+ up to age 31.

139 OPS+ ages 32-37 (It was 143 from ages 35-37!)

131 from age 33 to the end of his career at age 39.

It's rare: I get that.

A lot of hitters had late career resurgences at the end of the 80's due to various reasons (Darrell Evans, Jack Clark, Dave Parker, Carlton Fisk).

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Any GM would rather have a 40m value guy making 30m than a 15m value guy making 1m. 

Hard disagree there. The whole ideal that is currently pingponging in JH's head right now is that he was the 15M/1M guys and that's how he's choosing his CBO/GM's. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

A lot of hitters had late career resurgences at the end of the 80's due to various reasons (Darrell Evans, Jack Clark, Dave Parker, Carlton Fisk).

Ketel Marte doesnt need to resurge.  He can even surge less than he surged last year and still be extremely helpful to our ballclup.

But I agree with you.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hard disagree there. The whole ideal that is currently pingponging in JH's head right now is that he was the 15M/1M guys and that's how he's choosing his CBO/GM's. 

Okay replace would with should lol

A C+ baseball team that are has all minimum wage players does not usually win a playoff series against an A- team paid accordingly even if the WAR for each dollar spent is better for the C+ team.

Most sucessful teams have had great players.  

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It's rare: I get that.

That's all.  I'm not saying it can't happen that he retains his skills for 4-5 years, but it has to be a consideration.  And, FWIW, I have no objection to trading for the guy-just not giving up the farm for him.  Duran for Marte is ballpark fair.  I just wouldn't be adding much by the way of prospects.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

If that’s true, and I’m not saying it isn’t….. we absolutely got corked trading Devers.
Hicks, (boat anchor)

Harrison,

what turned into Dustin May. 

bad bad 

nothing but garbage, and, inexplicably, some fans still defend the return.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Tolle and Early are hard to part with , for sure.  I can see it falling apart because Marte is unique/special, so they prob feel justified insisting on one of our top 2 pitching prospects vs one of our top 5 pitching prospects.

I can also see the Sox holding on to the pitchers for the reasons you mention.  One thing Im not sure, is how close Arizona sees themself.  If they are looking to get back to playoffs immediately, they could have interest in somone like Sandoval/Cutter K , especially if we eat money.  Of course would have to include Harrison or something.  But yeah, I can see it falling apart.

I doubt they'd want 1 year Sandoval, and it's hard to know who they like. They might like Crawford more than Harrison + Dobbins. They might really like Perales.

I think they have good reason to insist on Tolle or Early, and I doubt even Arias could be subbed in. The name I keep coming back to is Campbell, and I'm not a firm believer in the idea that is stock dropped a ton from March's high point. Again, maybe AZ does not value him highly enough. His lack of a position is worrisome.

Would Campbell, Crawford and Perales get it done?