Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Actually the Brewers are paying Woodruff $32mill tjis year.  Prior to accepting a QO, Woodruff declined a mutual option and accepted a $10mill buyout.

All the more reason they would prefer moving him over Peralta…

All true, but there has been a lot of talk about Peralta.

[Larry Cook]

If the twins expect 2 top 50 prospects for Ryan, I have to think most teams will decline that type trade 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If the twins expect 2 top 50 prospects for Ryan, I have to think most teams will decline that type trade 

Maybe we get Gore or Lodolo,  but more likely no other SP'er.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/27/2025 at 1:01 PM, moonslav59 said:

I was listening to Merloni, who was saying the Sox see players differently than the fans. They may see Realmuto as a decent middle order bat, just like they see Gray as a solid #1-2 SP'er.

They look at numbers we don't. "They are poor at communicating what they think."

No fans should ever think that they see things similar to any FO.  And no executive of any company should be more forthcoming than the law mandates.

 

[JoeBrady]

On 11/27/2025 at 10:29 AM, moonslav59 said:

He's a bottom 5 defender and should DH, but we need power.

One of the concepts that RS need to get use to is that you get what you pay for.  If Alonso had a better glove, he'd get paid more money.  If Alonso was two years younger, you'd have to sign him for two more years.  Those things are already baked into his $110M/4.  That's why he isn't $180M/6.

[Duran Is The Man]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

One of the concepts that RS need to get use to is that you get what you pay for.  If Alonso had a better glove, he'd get paid more money.  If Alonso was two years younger, you'd have to sign him for two more years.  Those things are already baked into his $110M/4.  That's why he isn't $180M/6.

yep.

[Larry Cook]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

One of the concepts that RS need to get use to is that you get what you pay for.  If Alonso had a better glove, he'd get paid more money.  If Alonso was two years younger, you'd have to sign him for two more years.  Those things are already baked into his $110M/4.  That's why he isn't $180M/6.

Detroit fans are thinking Bregman is going to sign with either us or them! 
 

if Detroit signs Bregman, they will not trade skubal! 
 

but why would Bregman sign with Detroit if skubal will likely leave after 1 season??? 
 

 

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe we get Gore or Lodolo,  but more likely no other SP'er.

A Locked On Nationals podcaster proposes that two years of MacKenzie Gore land three Top 75 prospects in Kade Anderson (No. 23), Harry Ford (No,. 42) and Jonny Farmelo (No,. 75) in a trade with the Seattle Mariners :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFlyFKGJSvY&t=956s

That's more than the Red Sox surrendered last offseason for two years of Garrett Crochet.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

16 minutes ago, harmony said:

A Locked On Nationals podcaster proposes that two years of MacKenzie Gore land three Top 75 prospects in Kade Anderson (No. 23), Harry Ford (No,. 42) and Jonny Farmelo (No,. 75) in a trade with the Seattle Mariners :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFlyFKGJSvY&t=956s

That's more than the Red Sox surrendered last offseason for two years of Garrett Crochet.

 

 

The twins are looking for 2 top 50 prospects for Ryan. Is gore really worth 3 top 75 prospects? 
 

if I am Seattle, I would be very loathe to part with Anderson!!!  

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No fans should ever think that they see things similar to any FO.  And no executive of any company should be more forthcoming than the law mandates.

 

I think Merloni thinks it would be better for the top brass to just come clean with the fans.

Don't tell the fans they want a co-ace, trade for Gray and then not explain if he's the co-ace or not.

Don't say we need a serious power upgrade and end up with Bregman and Realmuto.

I can understand not telling the fans "We are rebuilding for 4-5 years" after the 2018 or 2019 season. They needed to sell tickets, but a 4+ year sham is pushing some boundaries.

[Duran Is The Man]

14 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The twins are looking for 2 top 50 prospects for Ryan. Is gore really worth 3 top 75 prospects? 
 

if I am Seattle, I would be very loathe to part with Anderson!!!  

no way i'd do that if i'm the Mariners. Gore is highly overrated IMHO.

[UtahSox]

13 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

who is Meyer?

Autocorrect…..  but I’m pretty sure you knew that. 

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Detroit fans are thinking Bregman is going to sign with either us or them! 
 

if Detroit signs Bregman, they will not trade skubal! 
 

but why would Bregman sign with Detroit if skubal will likely leave after 1 season??? 
 

 

Because as much as we as fans just want to win, AB2 wants to get paid….. then win. In that order.
 

Honestly ifAB2 signs with Detroit, I hope Skubal doesn’t resign, unless Skubal ends up in AL East. 

[harmony]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

The twins are looking for 2 top 50 prospects for Ryan. Is gore really worth 3 top 75 prospects? 
 

if I am Seattle, I would be very loathe to part with Anderson!!!  

Seattle is highly. highly unlikely to trade left-hander Kade Anderson.

A year ago the White Sox trade of Garrett Crochet netted Kyle Teel (No. 25 overall prospect), Braden Montgomery (No. 54 overall prospect), Chase Meidroth (No. 11 in Red Sox system) and Wikelman Gonzalez (No. 14 in Red Sox system)..

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

Seattle is highly. highly unlikely to trade left-hander Kade Anderson.

A year ago the White Sox trade of Garrett Crochet netted Kyle Teel (No. 25 overall prospect), Braden Montgomery (No. 54 overall prospect), Chase Meidroth (No. 11 in Red Sox system) and Wikelman Gonzalez (No. 14 in Red Sox system)..

How would you rate where Ryan is now versus where Crochet was when traded?

Pretty close?

It's hard to not let what Crochet did, this season to interfere with this comp.

[harmony]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How would you rate where Ryan is now versus where Crochet was when traded?

Pretty close?

It's hard to not let what Crochet did, this season to interfere with this comp.

Last offseason with two years of team control, Garrett Crochet was coming off a season of 4.6 fWAR/4.1 bWAR with an ERA+ of 115 in 146 innings.

With two years of team control, Joe Ryan is coming off a season of 3.1 fWAR/4.5 bWAR with an ERA+ of 125 in 171 innings.

With two years of team control, MacKenzie Gore is coming off a season of 2.9 fWAR/3.0 bWAR with an ERA+ of 98 in 159.2 innings.

Ryan is four years older today than Crochet was last offseason. Gore is a year and four months older today than Crochet was last offseason.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

no way i'd do that if i'm the Mariners. Gore is highly overrated IMHO.

FWIW in their offseason plan the Locked On Mariners podcasters proposed a trade of six years each of catcher Harry Ford, right-hander Logan Evans and outfielder/inflielder Tai Peete for two years of MacKenzie Gore (with a separate dump of Luis Castillo's salary.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcK7lWfD7G0&t=252s

 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

Last offseason with two years of team control, Garrett Crochet was coming off a season of 4.6 fWAR/4.1 bWAR with an ERA+ of 115 in 146 innings.

With two years of team control, Joe Ryan is coming off a season of 3.1 fWAR/4.5 bWAR with an ERA+ of 125 in 171 innings.

With two years of team control, MacKenzie Gore is coming off a season of 2.9 fWAR/3.0 bWAR with an ERA+ of 98 in 159.2 innings.

Ryan is four years older today than Crochet was last offseason. Gore is a year and four months older today than Crochet was last offseason.

Those are numbers, how do you rate them? 

Would it take a similar package as Crochet's to get Ryan?

(No way Gore should get close to what the CWS got for GC.)

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The twins are looking for 2 top 50 prospects for Ryan. Is gore really worth 3 top 75 prospects? 
 

To me, he's a headcase.  Lots of talent, but lots of bad games.  Maybe slightly more talented than Lodolo, but I'd take Lodolo over Gore without a second thought.

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Merloni thinks it would be better for the top brass to just come clean with the fans.

There is no coming clean with the fans, if for no other reason than no one can predict the future.  There might not be a co-ace available at any price.  The only one out there that might qualify as a 'co-ace' might be Greene.  And maybe Cincy won't trade him to us because everyone wants to help us.

Once you get to the next level of a #2, no one will ever agree on who qualifies as a #2.  Does anyone consider Burns or Chandler a #2?  But I'd prioritize them over almost anyone in baseball.  And again, they are very unlikely to be available.  Too many fans get overly involved in FO pronouncements and thinking that the FO should be advising them of everything that is going on.

[JoeBrady]

13 hours ago, harmony said:

Garrett Crochet was coming off a season of 4.6 fWAR/4.1 bWAR with an ERA+ of 115 in 146 innings.

Another reason to use FIP over ERA.  Crochet was unhittable in his last year with the WS.  It took him a month to knock the rust off, and had a 2.83/2.27 the rest of the way.  In his last 9 games, he had a 47/3 K/W in only 27.2 IPs.  That's just about unhittable.  You can't ignore the injury concerns, but he looked like one of the top-3 arms in BB.

[notin]

16 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

No fans should ever think that they see things similar to any FO.  And no executive of any company should be more forthcoming than the law mandates.

 

Of course teams see different from fans.  Do people think teams use undefined terms like #2 starter?

[harmony]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Those are numbers, how do you rate them? 

Would it take a similar package as Crochet's to get Ryan?

(No way Gore should get close to what the CWS got for GC.)

Absolutely not IMHO.

The Twins front office may feel otherwise.

According to Baseball Trade Values, Garrett Crochet had a surplus value of $53.4 million last December when the Red Sox traded for the left-hander:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179460

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Joe Ryan a surplus value of $52.7 million and MacKenzie Gore a surplus value of $48.4 million.

[JoeBrady]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

Absolutely not IMHO.

The Twins front office may feel otherwise.

I doubt it.  Ryan finished poorly.  While teams will still be interested, it will affect his price.  6.47/5.85 ERQ/FIP in his final 7 games.  GMs will need a reason to dismiss that before, you know, dismissing it.  Gray has the same questions, but at a much lower price.

That's also why I like Alcantara.  He finished with a 2.68/3.62 in his last 8.  He's easier to predict two good years with those numbers.

[harmony]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I doubt it.  Ryan finished poorly.  While teams will still be interested, it will affect his price.  6.47/5.85 ERQ/FIP in his final 7 games.  GMs will need a reason to dismiss that before, you know, dismissing it.  Gray has the same questions, but at a much lower price.

That's also why I like Alcantara.  He finished with a 2.68/3.62 in his last 8.  He's easier to predict two good years with those numbers.

FWIW MacKenzie Gore posted an ERA of 6.75 in 11 starts after his All Star appearance. Opponents posted a .288/.381/.492/.873 line against Gore in those 11 games.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

FWIW MacKenzie Gore posted an ERA of 6.75 in 11 starts after his All Star appearance. Opponents posted a .288/.381/.492/.873 line against Gore in those 11 games.

Much bigger fan of Alcantara. He will be year2 post TJ’s as well. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, harmony said:

Absolutely not IMHO.

The Twins front office may feel otherwise.

According to Baseball Trade Values, Garrett Crochet had a surplus value of $53.4 million last December when the Red Sox traded for the left-hander:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179460

Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Joe Ryan a surplus value of $52.7 million and MacKenzie Gore a surplus value of $48.4 million.

I agree.

FYI, Crochet's drop off at the end of 2024..

ERA/FIP in 2024

3.07/2.32 first 21 GS

5.19/3.86 last 11 starts

 

2025:

2.24/2.51 first 23 GS'd

3.47/3.78 last 9 starts

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Much bigger fan of Alcantara. He will be year2 post TJ’s as well. 

A couple of writers are predicting that next year alcanterra will have the command and control needed to be a premier pitcher again 

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW MacKenzie Gore posted an ERA of 6.75 in 11 starts after his All Star appearance. Opponents posted a .288/.381/.492/.873 line against Gore in those 11 games.

I'd never invest in a pitcher that inconsistent.  That's fine for a #4/5, which is why guys wind up being a #4/5.  If I pay real money for a #2, I want more than 14 QS.  Gore can give you a spectacular 14-K 6-inning shutout, but it still only qualifies as one win.

[harmony]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd never invest in a pitcher that inconsistent.  That's fine for a #4/5, which is why guys wind up being a #4/5.  If I pay real money for a #2, I want more than 14 QS.  Gore can give you a spectacular 14-K 6-inning shutout, but it still only qualifies as one win.

Any remote Seattle interest in MacKenzie Gore would be as a replacement for Luis Castillo as a No. 4 or 5 starter. Gore is projected to earn $4.7 million in 2026.