Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

Okamoto might be the guy we get, as his cost will be lower than Bregman, Alonso and many others.

[Larry Cook]

Has anybody else noticed that cohen and the Mets seems to sign a lot of yankees players 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Crap....I like him even more now.  I thought I read he plays both 3B and 1B well too.  So he kind of leaves to door open for a Bregman reunion or an Alonso addition as well. 

IMO, his flexibility means no Bregman or Alonso.  Being righty and able to play 3rd, that means you can start Mayer at 3rd and not have to worry against the really tough lefties.  And not have to worry about whether Casas will be helthy enough to be our starting 1B in April.  It's also backup insurance for Story, since we could move Oka to 3rd and Mayer to SS, should something happen to Story.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If it's a choice between Okamoto or Murakami, I'm OK with Okamoto. A good bat and good glove -- with less Ks -- helps the Red Sox in more ways than just the big fly.

I don't feel good about this, but I can't help comparing any potential hitter from Japan to Yoshida. It's more about their league compared to the long seasons of the majors, and not just a WBC tournament all over the planet in March (where Masa rocked last time out).

In 11 pro seasons in Japan, Kazuma Okamoto had a .277 batting average, with a .361 OBP/.521 SLUG/.882 OPS. He struck out 796 times with 481 walks.

In 7 pro seasons in Japan, Masataka Yoshida had a .327 batting average, with a .421 OBP/.539 SLUG/.960 OPS. He had only 300 Ks to 421 BBs.

Masa hit over 20 homers four times, and in his last three seasons had twice as many walks as strikeouts. Kaz hit over 30 HRs five straight years, but not his last two... there must have been some injuries then (buyer beware?). 

Bottom line: Boston is hesitant to play Yoshida in the field; the Sox cannot miss on recruiting another guy longterm if they're not sure he can play defense at the big league level.

[Larry Cook]

Does Washington need to add salary to meet the minimum for next year??  
 

they need salary, they have gore! 
we have yoshida and/or hicks and young cost controlled pitchers like Tolle, early and dobbins 

[a700hitter]

Is Mayer going to play winter ball?  He was not very impressive with the bat.  He has work to do. 

[UtahSox]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, his flexibility means no Bregman or Alonso.  Being righty and able to play 3rd, that means you can start Mayer at 3rd and not have to worry against the really tough lefties.  And not have to worry about whether Casas will be helthy enough to be our starting 1B in April.  It's also backup insurance for Story, since we could move Oka to 3rd and Mayer to SS, should something happen to Story.

This sounds like my nightmare opening day lineup. No bregman, no Alonso, Okamoto at 1st and Mayer at 3rd with Romy at 2b?? I’ll be so freaking bummed out if that’s our lineup. 

[Hugh2]

I would love an Okamoto signing if there was a larger signing too e.g. Alonso, Bregman, Bichete

[mvp 78]

7 hours ago, a700hitter said:

Is Mayer going to play winter ball?  He was not very impressive with the bat.  He has work to do. 

I don't believe so. What he's working on is building up muscle in the gym so that he can stay healthy per Cora. 

[Hitch]

On 12/1/2025 at 3:42 PM, mvp 78 said:

Who has been hammering them (excluding twitter, message boards, etc.)? They seem to get off pretty easy from BOS media.

That's just not true. Carrabis and his lot have been hammering them for years for not talking and being open. McAdams and Cotillo literally open up every single podcast with the audio of them saying if they want the fans to listen and trust them they need to talk. Passan and Rosenthal have hit them over their lack of talking. And I wasn't even talking about the media so much as the fans. They have been criticised from all comers for the way they have disappeared the past 4 or 5 years.

And it's all been fair enough criticism. But personally, I'd rather not hear anything from them as when they do talk they put their foot in their mouths and/or give away leverage. 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I would love an Okamoto signing if there was a larger signing too e.g. Alonso, Bregman, Bichete

I wouldn't want Okamoto at 3rd. If we got Bregman/Bichette and him to play at 1st, that looks decent, but I'm not sure that solves our power outage. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I wouldn't want Okamoto at 3rd. If we got Bregman/Bichette and him to play at 1st, that looks decent, but I'm not sure that solves our power outage. 

I like that actually, sure we don't have a 40 HR guy but we have an entire lineup that could put up 20+ not saying they would all do that in one year.  But lets' say the went out and signed Bregman/Okamoto

Mayer/Okamoto/Bregman/Story/Duran/Rafeala/Anthony/Abreu.  Those are all guys who have enough pop in their bats to attack mistakes, Story and Bregman are two guys who can put up 25+ in a full season and we still have yet to see what a full season of Roman Anthony does. 

If we add one of Bregman/Bichette/Alonso plus Okamoto to this lineup, that's a pretty good lineup. 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I like that actually, sure we don't have a 40 HR guy but we have an entire lineup that could put up 20+ not saying they would all do that in one year.  But lets' say the went out and signed Bregman/Okamoto

Mayer/Okamoto/Bregman/Story/Duran/Rafeala/Anthony/Abreu.  Those are all guys who have enough pop in their bats to attack mistakes, Story and Bregman are two guys who can put up 25+ in a full season and we still have yet to see what a full season of Roman Anthony does. 

If we add one of Bregman/Bichette/Alonso plus Okamoto to this lineup, that's a pretty good lineup. 

I don't disagree. I like it when I see it written down like this, but there is a glaring true power bat hole in that line up. With it spread around it might not matter. But I'd feel better with big time bopper in there for sure. But I don't dislike it. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe so. What he's working on is building up muscle in the gym so that he can stay healthy per Cora. 

Hint received, I need to get back to the gym myself.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hitch said:

That's just not true. Carrabis and his lot have been hammering them for years for not talking and being open. McAdams and Cotillo literally open up every single podcast with the audio of them saying if they want the fans to listen and trust them they need to talk. Passan and Rosenthal have hit them over their lack of talking. And I wasn't even talking about the media so much as the fans. They have been criticised from all comers for the way they have disappeared the past 4 or 5 years.

And it's all been fair enough criticism. But personally, I'd rather not hear anything from them as when they do talk they put their foot in their mouths and/or give away leverage. 

YES!

I'd rather hear nothing than lies and deceptions.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I like that actually, sure we don't have a 40 HR guy but we have an entire lineup that could put up 20+ not saying they would all do that in one year.  But lets' say the went out and signed Bregman/Okamoto

Mayer/Okamoto/Bregman/Story/Duran/Rafeala/Anthony/Abreu.  Those are all guys who have enough pop in their bats to attack mistakes, Story and Bregman are two guys who can put up 25+ in a full season and we still have yet to see what a full season of Roman Anthony does. 

If we add one of Bregman/Bichette/Alonso plus Okamoto to this lineup, that's a pretty good lineup. 

If these are our only offensive additions, I honestly like it a lot more with Duran in for Rafaela.  I know Im in the minority, but I feel like fans love beautiful defense, and it tends to get overrated.  If you are getting similar value for Duran and Rafaela, take under consideration thats 2 years of Duran vs 3-4x more for Rafaela, and if teams are offering as much for either, that means that for the next years they think Duran is 3-4x the player that Rafaela is (including defense), and I wouldnt disagree.

If Cedanne takes another step forward at the plate, thats a different story.  But A+ defense out of Cedanne wiht a .700ish OPS is not winning as many games as B- defense out of Duran with an .800ish OPS.  Now if you replace Bregman with Alonso, I may flip and prefer to keep Cedanne over Duran. Im trying to balance offense vs defense.

I guess my point is that people put Cedanne off limits, and I dont agree with that.  Although I am sympathetic to the argument that we're perennially dead last in defense so why trade our defensive ace.  But I can see Cedannes bat taking a step back, like JBJs did, although I did demand that Moon show me Cedannes 1st/2nd half splits (so lazy of me, sorry Moon).  And they were way more even than I thought.  So maybe , Cedanne .710ish OPS is here to stay but Im not sold.  Im also not sold that hes not going to play infield.  Which Im more open to than most, as long as its SS not 2b (put your best defender at SS where the most balls are hit, and while i dont have confidence in his bat, I think Cedanne would be the best defensive SS in the AL with 1 weekend of practice)

Anthony, Bregman, Okamoto, Abreu, Story....I like it more with Druan .....Okay wait, stop. I just now realized you do have Duran in your lineup and you have a DH rotation and no Yoshida.  Well, now Im like shoot I already wrote all that and do I delete or just hit send even though my entire thought is abouthow I dont hate your lineup but I think it needs Duran when you already have Duran in there.  

Backed myself into a corener on this one.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

YES!

I'd rather hear nothing than lies and deceptions.

Even about your singing voice?

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If these are our only offensive additions, I honestly like it a lot more with Duran in for Rafaela.  I know Im in the minority, but I feel like fans love beautiful defense, and it tends to get overrated.  If you are getting similar value for Duran and Rafaela, take under consideration thats 2 years of Duran vs 3-4x more for Rafaela, and if teams are offering as much for either, that means that for the next years they think Duran is 3-4x the player that Rafaela is (including defense), and I wouldnt disagree.

If Cedanne takes another step forward at the plate, thats a different story.  But A+ defense out of Cedanne wiht a .700ish OPS is not winning as many games as B- defense out of Duran with an .800ish OPS.  Now if you replace Bregman with Alonso, I may flip and prefer to keep Cedanne over Duran. Im trying to balance offense vs defense.

I guess my point is that people put Cedanne off limits, and I dont agree with that.  Although I am sympathetic to the argument that we're perennially dead last in defense so why trade our defensive ace.  But I can see Cedannes bat taking a step back, like JBJs did, although I did demand that Moon show me Cedannes 1st/2nd half splits (so lazy of me, sorry Moon).  And they were way more even than I thought.  So maybe , Cedanne .710ish OPS is here to stay but Im not sold.  Im also not sold that hes not going to play infield.  Which Im more open to than most, as long as its SS not 2b (put your best defender at SS where the most balls are hit, and while i dont have confidence in his bat, I think Cedanne would be the best defensive SS in the AL with 1 weekend of practice)

Anthony, Bregman, Okamoto, Abreu, Story....I like it more with Druan .....Okay wait, stop. I just now realized you do have Duran in your lineup and you have a DH rotation and no Yoshida.  Well, now Im like shoot I already wrote all that and do I delete or just hit send even though my entire thought is abouthow I dont hate your lineup but I think it needs Duran when you already have Duran in there.  

Backed myself into a corner on this one.

I'm a big Rafaela fan, as you know, but if we add very little to the offense, I'm leaning towards your position. We could trade Rafaela (6.3 AAV) plus others for K Marte (19.5 AAV.) Maybe Campbell (7.5) plus Rafaela (6.3) which adds about $5M to the budget, fixes 2B and clears the OF logjam. (Garcia could be the 4th OF'er along with Masa as emergency depth- or bring back Ref for a year.)

With nothing else, we'd have this...

1. L Anthony LF/CF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Duran CF/LF

4. L Abreu RF/ Refsnyder RF

5. L Masa DH/ Romy DH

6. R Story SS

7. L Casas 1B

8. L Mayer 3B/ Romy 3B

9. R Narvaez C

8. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

That's just not true. Carrabis and his lot have been hammering them for years for not talking and being open. McAdams and Cotillo literally open up every single podcast with the audio of them saying if they want the fans to listen and trust them they need to talk. Passan and Rosenthal have hit them over their lack of talking. And I wasn't even talking about the media so much as the fans. They have been criticised from all comers for the way they have disappeared the past 4 or 5 years.

And it's all been fair enough criticism. But personally, I'd rather not hear anything from them as when they do talk they put their foot in their mouths and/or give away leverage. 

Carrabis isn't the media, he's a supahfan. 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm a big Rafaela fan, as you know, but if we add very little to the offense, I'm leaning towards your position. We could trade Rafaela (6.3 AAV) plus others for K Marte (19.5 AAV.) Maybe Campbell (7.5) plus Rafaela (6.3) which adds about $5M to the budget, fixes 2B and clears the OF logjam. (Garcia could be the 4th OF'er along with Masa as emergency depth- or bring back Ref for a year.)

With nothing else, we'd have this...

1. L Anthony LF/CF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Duran CF/LF

4. L Abreu RF/ Refsnyder RF

5. L Masa DH/ Romy DH

6. R Story SS

7. L Casas 1B

8. L Mayer 3B/ Romy 3B

9. R Narvaez C

8. 

Correct, if this is how its going to look, and its a real possibility  - then you simply cannot swap out Duran for Rafaella.  Even if you swap Marte for Bregman.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Correct, if this is how its going to look, and its a real possibility  - then you simply cannot swap out Duran for Rafaella.  Even if you swap Marte for Bregman.

To me, Marte is a big plus over Bregman on offense. I'm not sure it's enough to make up for losing Devers and Bregman and then Duran, but it would be a big step, by itself.

I'd hope we add Bregman or Alonso with KMarte, and I'd be thrilled. With those two, I'd be fine keeping Rafaela over Duran. Duran is slightly more expensive and may cost much more in '27 and '28, so trading him as part of the KMarte deal might e needed.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe Campbell (7.5) plus Rafaela (6.3) which adds about $5M to the budget, fixes 2B and clears the OF logjam.

I wouldn't trade Ceddanne straight up for Marte.  Ceddanne had a better bWAR, is 7(!) years younger, and a better contract.

[Larry Cook]

53 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't trade Ceddanne straight up for Marte.  Ceddanne had a better bWAR, is 7(!) years younger, and a better contract.

Although Rafaela has been known to swing the bat at  bumblebees as far outside the strike zone as the on deck circle!!!  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't trade Ceddanne straight up for Marte.  Ceddanne had a better bWAR, is 7(!) years younger, and a better contract.

bWAR '25, '24

Ceddane 4.7, 2.8= 7.5

KMarte 4.4, 6.8= 11.8

fWAR

Ceddane 3.8, 1.0=4.8

KMarte: 4.6, 6.3=10.9

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

bWAR '25, '24

Ceddane 4.7, 2.8= 7.5

KMarte 4.4, 6.8= 11.8

fWAR

Ceddane 3.8, 1.0=4.8

KMarte: 4.6, 6.3=10.9

I assume what you're saying is that Ceddanne improved from 2.8 bWAR to 4.7 while Marte declined from 6.8 to 4.4.  And if Marte continues his decline based on FG, then he will accumulate 20.1 fWAR (for $102M).  If Ceddanne simply continues his 3.8, he will accumulate 22.8 (for $43M).  Keep in mind, if we use bWAR, it becomes even more favorable to Ceddanne.

[UtahSox]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't trade Ceddanne straight up for Marte.  Ceddanne had a better bWAR, is 7(!) years younger, and a better contract.

Vehemently agree to disagree

[UtahSox]

Some on this website love their defense, and bats be damned……. Rafaela is a sub 300 obp % guy, Marte is a 375 OBP%.  Marte hits more home runs, strikes out less, better batting average. You make that trade 100 out of 100 times unless you’re just playing for the future.

[UtahSox]

Had a totally out of right field thought…..

trade Rafaela, Harrison, and Sandoval for Marte. (Even deal)

Sign Bader to a 4yr 68m deal (+17 aav )

Trade Abreu and Yoshida for a piece of cheese (-22aav)

sign Pete Alonso 4yr 128m (32aav)

lineup with RA19, JD16, Bader, Marte, Alonso, and Story would be awesome.

and still have room to trade for legit SP2.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I assume what you're saying is that Ceddanne improved from 2.8 bWAR to 4.7 while Marte declined from 6.8 to 4.4.  And if Marte continues his decline based on FG, then he will accumulate 20.1 fWAR (for $102M).  If Ceddanne simply continues his 3.8, he will accumulate 22.8 (for $43M).  Keep in mind, if we use bWAR, it becomes even more favorable to Ceddanne.

You can assume all you want. What can you assume from this fWAR progression?

2.7>2.2>0.9>3.3>4.0 (age 28 to 32)

That's the Kyle trend.

 

 

[JoeBrady]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You can assume all you want. What can you assume from this fWAR progression?

2.7>2.2>0.9>3.3>4.0 (age 28 to 32)

That's the Kyle trend.

 

 

That's not the way FG calculates a player's decline.  They take a look at every player that has ever played, and they extrapolate the numbers.  It's entirely possible that any given player will beat the odds.  But I'd make a substantial wager that the total fWAR of all of 2025 32 y.o. players will be lower than they will be in 2026.

Aging is undefeated.