Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Duran Is The Man]

52 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with 15 home runs next year in 532 plate appearances:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats?position=3B

... and Roman Anthony with 18 home runs in 623 plate appearances:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/roman-anthony/31812/stats?position=OF

 

as far as FanGraphs goes....i can pull numbers out of my ass too.

no offense.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

So more than Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony combined (in 513 fewer plate appearances)?☹️

Just pointing out the consistent underprojections.

[harmony]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Just pointing out the consistent underprojections.

Projections tend to regress toward the mean not to “underproject” across the board.

[harmony]

4 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

as far as FanGraphs goes....i can pull numbers out of my ass too.

no offense.

Those who understand probability tend to exploit those who don’t.

[Hitch]

15 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Not yet! But just you wait! Once big money Cohen gets involved, a smol bean like John Henry stands no chance! 

I don't really know what you're trying to do here, but good luck with it.

[Hitch]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we just need 2 big bats, and we CAN do it under the tax line, while trading for a #2 SP.

ON 1B, Casas is a hug Q Mark. Romy and Campbell are both RHBs and doubtful batters.

I want us to get two big bats. If that's Bregman/another and K Marte/Buchette, I'm okay with rolling the dice for 1st.  If Romy drops of a cliff of Casas doesn't come back we can figure something out.  1st is the cheapest problem to solve.

That said, I'm also quite high on Alonso. Not that he fixes 1st. His bat plays his defence doesn't. 

We're not going to solve every position in the infield with new arrivals. One positions is going to be filled from within. Either by Mayer or Romy/Casas.

[notin]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I want us to get two big bats. If that's Bregman/another and K Marte/Buchette, I'm okay with rolling the dice for 1st.  If Romy drops of a cliff of Casas doesn't come back we can figure something out.  1st is the cheapest problem to solve.

That said, I'm also quite high on Alonso. Not that he fixes 1st. His bat plays his defence doesn't. 

We're not going to solve every position in the infield with new arrivals. One positions is going to be filled from within. Either by Mayer or Romy/Casas.

I think Story and Mayer/Romy handle two positions.

1b is the easiest place to buy a solution, whether it’s a big contract like Alonso or a lesser one like Hoskins or Bell.  And as big contracts go, Alonso is likely to be cheaper than Bregman or Bichette, I assume him to be a fairly likely option.

That leaves one 2b/3b to fill.  Unlike most, I do not expect a second big contract in the infield.  A trade for a player like Marte works certainly.  But I expect something more like a trade for Alec Bohm or a second tier FA (Polanco? Kim?) is probably more likely.

Both Bregman and Bichette is not happening.  The Sox are not demoting Mayer.  Even if he is hurt, a stopgap infielder is far more likely.  You don’t commit 8 years to Bo Bichette because your top prospect is out for 6 weeks…

[FredLynn]

On 11/13/2025 at 11:28 AM, Hugh2 said:

Do you think we will go above the luxury tax threshold?

Nope. After all, Henry and his family have to eat, right?

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I think Story and Mayer/Romy handle two positions.

1b is the easiest place to buy a solution, whether it’s a big contract like Alonso or a lesser one like Hoskins or Bell.  And as big contracts go, Alonso is likely to be cheaper than Bregman or Bichette, I assume him to be a fairly likely option.

That leaves one 2b/3b to fill.  Unlike most, I do not expect a second big contract in the infield.  A trade for a player like Marte works certainly.  But I expect something more like a trade for Alec Bohm or a second tier FA (Polanco? Kim?) is probably more likely.

Both Bregman and Bichette is not happening.  The Sox are not demoting Mayer.  Even if he is hurt, a stopgap infielder is far more likely.  You don’t commit 8 years to Bo Bichette because your top prospect is out for 6 weeks…

I'm not confident to predict how they see Mayer at the moment. His defence looks good, but his bat wasn't ready. 

I feel like Alonso is almost locked in from the amount of smoke around that particular move. I'd love Marte/Buchette to go with him, but whether the payroll masters will is another thing. My gut tells me that's the sort of summer (along with a #2) we're heading for. 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

Projections tend to regress toward the mean not to “underproject” across the board.

Of course. I get the math, but do you think Cal's HR projection is under or over?

BTW, I agree with your point on questioning Mayer and Anthony as being 2026 major power sources. They may eventually become decent power bats, but I don't think either is there yet, in terms of projections.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Hitch said:

I want us to get two big bats. If that's Bregman/another and K Marte/Buchette, I'm okay with rolling the dice for 1st.  If Romy drops of a cliff of Casas doesn't come back we can figure something out.  1st is the cheapest problem to solve.

That said, I'm also quite high on Alonso. Not that he fixes 1st. His bat plays his defence doesn't. 

We're not going to solve every position in the infield with new arrivals. One positions is going to be filled from within. Either by Mayer or Romy/Casas.

I totally agree. I will not be shocked if 2 of the 3 "open" infield positions are filled from within, especially if we win the Schwarber sweepstakes and he is our '26 DH.

I'm okay with Mayer/Romy at 2B or Casas/Romy at 1B, if we fill the other two slots with significant additions- one being a major add like Alonso or two like Bregman (3B) and Suarez (2B) or Bichette/Polanco/Marte (2B) and Suarez (1B)

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm not confident to predict how they see Mayer at the moment. His defence looks good, but his bat wasn't ready. 

I feel like Alonso is almost locked in from the amount of smoke around that particular move. I'd love Marte/Buchette to go with him, but whether the payroll masters will is another thing. My gut tells me that's the sort of summer (along with a #2) we're heading for. 

I'm not sure we can say Mayer's bat was not "ready." I thought he looked better than Campbell, which isn't saying much, but he seemed to be getting the hang of it, right before the injury.

His sample size was too small, and the recency sample sizes are even smaller.

.507 first 9 games (35 PAs)

.730 last 35 games (101 PAs)

He was pretty good in the minors but not as impressive as KC and RA:

.818 in AAA (9 HRs in 170 PAs)

.763 in AA (14 HRs in 524 PAs)

.865 in A+ (11 HRs in 280)

.910 in A- (9 HRs in 308)

43 HRs in about 1300 PAs or 22 per 650)

 

[Hitch]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure we can say Mayer's bat was not "ready." I thought he looked better than Campbell, which isn't saying much, but he seemed to be getting the hang of it, right before the injury.

His sample size was too small, and the recency sample sizes are even smaller.

.507 first 9 games (35 PAs)

.730 last 35 games (101 PAs)

He was pretty good in the minors but not as impressive as KC and RA:

.818 in AAA (9 HRs in 170 PAs)

.763 in AA (14 HRs in 524 PAs)

.865 in A+ (11 HRs in 280)

.910 in A- (9 HRs in 308)

43 HRs in about 1300 PAs or 22 per 650)

 

I thought he needed a bit more time to round out his game, especially against lefties. Which is part of why he got platooned so much. I'm not down on him or anything, but I''m not 100% certain he's in the starting lineup for us at the beginning next year, I think it's likely, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I thought he needed a bit more time to round out his game, especially against lefties. Which is part of why he got platooned so much. I'm not down on him or anything, but I''m not 100% certain he's in the starting lineup for us at the beginning next year, I think it's likely, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

The splits vs LHPs has rightfully gotten a lot of ink.

I like his glove. I think his arm is better than the numbers show, as the injuries probably lowered his true arm strength profile.

It may take a couple years for his bat to come around, and when the window is now, it might be hard to allow him 1-2 years to find it at the big league level. I share the concern.

It comes down to how much is JH willing to spend and Brez willing to trade for top talent. When we look at what positions have the best chance at being filled by in-house solutions, based on projected expectations, we have several slots with promise. With that promise comes questions and concerns.

To me, the Mayer-Romy combo offers the most hope, behind Anthony taking over an OF role, which to me is a certainty, this winter and into 2026 and beyond.

1. Anthony replaces Duran or Abreu (Rafaela is doubtful to be traded)

2. Mayer-Romy at 2B or 3B.

3. Casas-Romy-Campbell at 1B 

4. Masa-Romy (Campbell/Garcia) at DH (maybe re-sign Refsnyder) Masa's salary makes this slot unlikely to be "upgraded."

5. The SS slot could be filled by Mayer with Story moving to 2B, but Brez seemed to negate that option if his recent comments.

[Larry Cook]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure we can say Mayer's bat was not "ready." I thought he looked better than Campbell, which isn't saying much, but he seemed to be getting the hang of it, right before the injury.

His sample size was too small, and the recency sample sizes are even smaller.

.507 first 9 games (35 PAs)

.730 last 35 games (101 PAs)

He was pretty good in the minors but not as impressive as KC and RA:

.818 in AAA (9 HRs in 170 PAs)

.763 in AA (14 HRs in 524 PAs)

.865 in A+ (11 HRs in 280)

.910 in A- (9 HRs in 308)

43 HRs in about 1300 PAs or 22 per 650)

 

I think Mayer is ready for the major leagues defensively and just needs at bats in the big leagues before he becomes a quality hitter! If the wrist is 100 percent 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think Mayer is ready for the major leagues defensively and just needs at bats in the big leagues before he becomes a quality hitter! If the wrist is 100 percent 

Agreed. Maybe the injury-prone label is unfair, but I have to worry, if next year it's the other wrist, or knee, or hammy, or....

I'm pretty certain his hit tool with make him a plus-plus player.

Last spring, I felt KC had a better hit tool and Mayer a better D tool. Now, I see Mayer and KC as kinda  equal on hitting, but his splits are worrisome.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/13/2025 at 1:20 AM, Hitch said:

I think they'll ask for one of them (rightly so) and we should do it. If everything goes brilliantly, Tolle or Early may become a Ryan. So go get THE Ryan now.

maybe 0ne but not both.  Myself I would prefer to keep Early over Tolle

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

maybe 0ne but not both.  Myself I would prefer to keep Early over Tolle

You know me: I'm always hoping we give 3 good players instead of 2 better ones.

Campbell and two from Clarke, Eyanson, Phillips, Sandlin and Mullins. (I'd try to avoid Witherspoon, Valera or Fajardo, but if it meant keeping Early & Tolle, okay.)

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure we can say Mayer's bat was not "ready." I thought he looked better than Campbell, which isn't saying much, but he seemed to be getting the hang of it, right before the injury.

His sample size was too small, and the recency sample sizes are even smaller.

.507 first 9 games (35 PAs)

.730 last 35 games (101 PAs)

He was pretty good in the minors but not as impressive as KC and RA:

.818 in AAA (9 HRs in 170 PAs)

.763 in AA (14 HRs in 524 PAs)

.865 in A+ (11 HRs in 280)

.910 in A- (9 HRs in 308)

43 HRs in about 1300 PAs or 22 per 650)

 

Campbell started off like gangbusters. Can he bounce back is the question.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Campbell started off like gangbusters. Can he bounce back is the question.

He's still just 23 and this year was his 4th year in pro ball.

He hit very well at all levels until MLB, His gangbuster start was a bit deceptive, because he was so great in the first 9 games that he was still at .900 after 29 games and .800 after 34 of his 67 game season (that's over half.)

Here is the breakdown over 9 game samples:

1.211 first 9

.900 next 9, still great

.856 next 9, still doing really well

Then, KAPOW!

.391 in 4th 9 game sample

.428 next

.483 next

.699 last 12 games (was he starting to snap out of it?)

[harmony]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course. I get the math, but do you think Cal's HR projection is under or over?

BTW, I agree with your point on questioning Mayer and Anthony as being 2026 major power sources. They may eventually become decent power bats, but I don't think either is there yet, in terms of projections.

FanGraphs makes a reasonable projection of 39 home runs for Cal Raleigh in 2026.

FanGraphs projects Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley with 21 and 20 home runs in 2026. I'd take the under on one of those projections but I just don't know which one.😉

Steamer has Canzone and Raley with 17 and 16 home runs in 2026:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=all&team=11&players=0&lg=all&z=1763178096&sortcol=4&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's still just 23 and this year was his 4th year in pro ball.

He hit very well at all levels until MLB, His gangbuster start was a bit deceptive, because he was so great in the first 9 games that he was still at .900 after 29 games and .800 after 34 of his 67 game season (that's over half.)

Here is the breakdown over 9 game samples:

1.211 first 9

.900 next 9, still great

.856 next 9, still doing really well

Then, KAPOW!

.391 in 4th 9 game sample

.428 next

.483 next

.699 last 12 games (was he starting to snap out of it?)

In early 2025, bres-slow rushed Campbell to the majors and really damaged Campbell in the process. 
in late 2025, bres-slow rushed early and Tolle to the majors. Are they also damaged now as well??? 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

In early 2025, bres-slow rushed Campbell to the majors and really damaged Campbell in the process. 
in late 2025, bres-slow rushed early and Tolle to the majors. Are they also damaged now as well??? 

No damage to KC.

No damage to the pitchers, either.

No damage to Mayer or Anthony.

No damage to Narvaez.

I'm glad they took off the kid gloves.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

No damage to KC.

No damage to the pitchers, either.

No damage to Mayer or Anthony.

No damage to Narvaez.

I'm glad they took off the kid gloves.

But the timing of some of those decisions damaged the overall record (this isn't second-guessing, since a lot of us were first-guessing at the time):

There is a case to be made that anointing KC as a starting MLB infielder over Mayer -- who outplayed him in ST -- resulted in more losses through the first two months;

And nobody is saying that leaving Anthony in the minors during that same time didn't detract from the parent club's overall record. Any big league roster is better by including the best hitter in the organization.

I'm just glad a lot of promising youngsters got to experience a taste of the postseason, even if it was from the top step of the dugout...

 

 

[Old Red]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

No damage to KC.

No damage to the pitchers, either.

No damage to Mayer or Anthony.

No damage to Narvaez.

I'm glad they took off the kid gloves.

KC is TBD. It was pretty much a wasted year for him, and he’s still a player without a position. Mayer can be moved around, and his glove will travel with him, but KC is going to have to hit for him to stick in Boston. Being rushed into the lineup last year after a not so good ST did him no good at all IMO. I guess the Red Sox were trying to show the contract they gave him so soon was warranted. Last year it wasn’t. He may turn it around, and then again he may be another Grissom. As I said TBD.

[notin]

23 hours ago, Hitch said:

I thought he needed a bit more time to round out his game, especially against lefties. Which is part of why he got platooned so much. I'm not down on him or anything, but I''m not 100% certain he's in the starting lineup for us at the beginning next year, I think it's likely, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

Barring injury or unforeseen trade, I think it’s 100% likely he is in the lineup and I would bet on it. 
 

It seems like quite often the standards of fans exceed the standards of FO personnel filling out the roster…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

KC is TBD. It was pretty much a wasted year for him, and he’s still a player without a position. Mayer can be moved around, and his glove will travel with him, but KC is going to hit for him to stick in Boston. Being rushed into the lineup last year after a not so good ST did him no good at all IMO. I guess the Red Sox were trying to show the contract they gave him so soon was warranted. Last year it wasn’t. He may turn it around, and then again he may be another Grissom. As I said TBD.

He did win AL Rookie of the Month in April…

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

He did win AL Rookie of the Month in April…

Then he spent the rest of the year in WOO. Like I said he has to hit to not only get into the lineup, but stay in the lineup. TBD.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Then he spent the rest of the year in WOO. Like I said he has to hit to not only get into the lineup, but stay in the lineup. TBD.

What we don’t know is how much of keeping him in Worcester was related to defense?

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But the timing of some of those decisions damaged the overall record (this isn't second-guessing, since a lot of us were first-guessing at the time):

There is a case to be made that anointing KC as a starting MLB infielder over Mayer -- who outplayed him in ST -- resulted in more losses through the first two months;

And nobody is saying that leaving Anthony in the minors during that same time didn't detract from the parent club's overall record. Any big league roster is better by including the best hitter in the organization.

I'm just glad a lot of promising youngsters got to experience a taste of the postseason, even if it was from the top step of the dugout...

I thought Mayer and Anthony were better opening day choices, but KC had been tearing up the minors at every level. To me, they all looked ready- more ready than Narvaez, Early, Tolle and Dobbins- other rookies that ended up doing well.

This is not an easy choice to make, and I'm not sure we can easily say out organizational player development assessment protocol is flawed, because one guy slumped badly after his first 20 games or so. The reason all these guys didn't get an immediate show was the vest already in place. 

Yes, Mayer could have been chosen over KC at 2B, but I think they wanted him to play more games and play at SS, because Story was still a big question mark, if not just on his health questions. Anthony doesn't play 2B, and we can already see how his great start has forced the trade Duran issue to the forefront. Narvaez got his shot, in part because Wong got hurt. Dobbins, Tolle and Early were not really expected to play in the bigs. They made it by injury attrition.

I totally agree that the experience gained by these rookies, some just brief stints has enormous value to them and the club. There aren't as many looking to break into the bigs, next season, except maybe Perales or limited roles by Sandlin or Romero. (Romero will not be on the 40.)

We still have more to learn about KC, namely his position, and Jh Garcia. We need to see how Mayer can hit lefties, and how strong his arm looks after the wrist injury. We'd like to see if  Anthony's power can increase, and how he looks on defense over a full season. We'd like to see if 2025 was a fluke for Narvaez, Some of us want to see Tolle and Early get plenty of starts in the bigs, and maybe some want them on the opening day roster. It was good they got a taste of the bigs without any harm to their egos.

If Campbell is to be set up for LF, I'm not sure there is room for Jh Garcia, perhaps even if Duran is traded. I wonder if DH is the best spot for KC, but we have Masa and maybe Casas as the DH, the latter for sure if we sign Alonso or another 1Bman. (Alonso might also be a DH type.)