Article: The First Base Rental Market is Weak, but the Red Sox Can Still Swing a Trade

[Alex Mayes]

President of Baseball Operations Craig Breslow has identified both starting pitching and first base as positions the team would like to address as the trade deadline approaches. We’ve already addressed some options for the starting pitcher market here, but the first base market is something entirely different.

After the Triston Casas injury early in the season, there was expectation that the Red Sox would have to be in the market for a first baseman if they hoped to remain in the playoff hunt. Very few believed that utility player Romy Gonzalez would step into the role full time, and then Abraham Toro was called up after Gonzalez hit the injured list with a hip contusion. After Gonzalez returned from his stint on the IL, the Toro/Gonzalez platoon at first clicked and helped propel the team to where they are now. There’s some belief that this platoon could carry the team all the way through the postseason as well, which isn’t a crazy thought if both men keep performing at the rate they currently are. Add in the fact that Kristian Campbell is splitting time at first and second at Triple-A Worcester, and the future picture becomes even more muddled. And that’s not even factoring in Blaze Jordan and Vaughn Grissom, both also drawing time at the cold corner in Worcester and playing well.

If the Red Sox are still intent on adding a first baseman at the deadline, it looks like the rental market may be their best bet. Let’s take a look at three possible rental candidates the team could target even if they begin to fall out of contention as the deadline draws closer.

#3: Carlos Santana, Cleveland Guardians
Santana is having an okay year on a team that looks like they will miss the playoff picture by a few games. He’s currently slashing .230/.326/.353 with 10 home runs and 38 RBIs. He’s a dependable first baseman, currently ranking in the 95th percentile for Outs Above Average on Baseball Savant. Santana could offer a strong veteran presence in the clubhouse and be another person for the young core to lean on as they grow into the sport. His numbers have ticked down over the last three years, which is understandable as he’s currently 39 years old. If the Guardians are interested in letting Santana go as he approaches 40 and hopes to get something in return for him, it likely wouldn’t cost much from the farm system to get him to Boston.

#2: Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers may look to get something for Muncy instead of letting him walk for free with their third-ranked prospect, Alex Freeland, waiting in the wings to take over third base. If that’s the case, the Red Sox could look to add Muncy’s pop into the lineup. He’s currently slashing .250/.375/.457 with 13 home runs and 55 RBIs, the latter of which is good for 17th overall in MLB. His OBP of .375 ranks him ninth in the National League. Adding a hitting of that caliber would be a signal that the Red Sox are going all-in on this season and think they have a shot to come out of the American League. Out of his 13 home runs, Muncy has hit 10 of them at home. Putting his home spray chart over Fenway park adds three more to his total. That’s not a ton, but could likely be the difference in a few of those one-run games the team kept losing at the onset of the season.

Muncy, nearly 35, is currently on the injured list with a knee injury, but it's just a bone bruise. He should be back in short order, and his $10 million team option* for next season will probably look a lot more attractive to clubs that don't have a huge luxury tax bill awaiting them.

*Yes, this means Muncy technically isn't a "true" rental, but since there's no buyout on the club option, he can become a free agent with no additional cost.

#1: Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
Naylor comes in with the best slash line of the three players listed here at .294/.361/.462. He’s played well for an Arizona team that’s been hanging out on the fringes of the playoff picture in a stacked NL West, but they could look to unload him if they don’t make more upward movement in the NL Wild Card chase. Where Naylor could really come into play for the Red Sox is if the Sox are interested in acquiring another pending free agent playing in the desert, Zac Gallen. A package deal of both Gallen and Naylor would add depth to the two position groups the front office has targeted for the team and likely puts them in contention for the top Wild Card spot, if not the AL East title. 

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Truth be told, the first base rental market is abysmal outside of Pete Alonso, and he’s not going anywhere. If the Red Sox are dead set on acquiring a first baseman who can actually contribute for quite some time, they need to look beyond the rentals. Sure, if the team is out of contention at the deadline and needs to take on bad contracts to get good prospects who can contribute in the next couple of years, then sure. If this team is still firing on all cylinders, though, they would be better served to keep riding the Toro/Gonzalez hot hand or look to acquire someone like Matt Olson, but that’s a name for a different article entirely. Breslow has commented publicly that the Red Sox are in the first base market, but we just aren’t sure what route that looks like yet. If it’s through rentals, they'll be left picking from a relatively weak market.

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[mvp 78]

I wouldn't have Naylor as the #1 acquisition because I think his pull heavy profile would be a bad fit for Fenway. He doesn't have enough power to really rake in BOS. He'd probably be an upgrade over Toro, but I think Muncy or Santana could put up more numbers over the last few months of '25 in a stretch run. That's all you need them for anyway. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't have Naylor as the #1 acquisition because I think his pull heavy profile would be a bad fit for Fenway. He doesn't have enough power to really rake in BOS. He'd probably be an upgrade over Toro, but I think Muncy or Santana could put up more numbers over the last few months of '25 in a stretch run. That's all you need them for anyway. 

Santana’s primarily a pull hitter as well, but at least he is a switch hitter.

I like Naylor over Santana.  Muncy is a tougher call.

Naylor this year has become a threat as a baserunner, which is no small feat considering he’s basically the MLB equivalent of a sloth on crutches.  He’s also fairly adept around the bag.

The downside is Arizona is prioritizing young pitching in any deal for their trade candidates.  BTV gives Naylor a surplus value of $3.2mill.  From the Sox minor leagues, the closest matches are Jedixson Paez, Hayden Mullins, and Blake Wehunt.  Is that really enough? It might be because historically 1b is not a huge priority for a lot of teams at the deadline.

Also - no mention of Rhys Hoskins?  I know Hes out with a sprained thumb, but he is expected to return this year.  Maybe mid-August?

[notin]

Also, Yandy Diaz needs some mention.  Former batting champ whose 2026 $12mill option was already picked up, and has a $13mill 2027 option.

With the Rays being for sale, they might be willing to move more money and change their financial picture somewhat.

Also it would be really nice to no longer have to face this guy…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yandy Diaz may be a better fit over the three guys in the article. He's a righty stick with oppo pop, and a batting champ who doesn't strike out much - exactly what will make this line-up better. 

Naylor will cost the most in prospect talent, because Breslow will also acquire one of Arizona's starters on expiring contracts: Kelly or Gallen. This trade should be engineered asap, so the Sox will be fortified for the upcoming stretch vs. good MLB teams. The Snakes can wait until the deadline for the best package, so if Boston is serious about contending this summer, Brez has to overpay to make it happen sooner, before the thin rotation is exposed.

This one-stop shopping is the best scenario, because Joe Ryan alone -- if he is actually available -- is an overpay probably not worth investing in... unless the front office really believes the Young Sox are already ready to go deep into October this year.

Again, IF the Twins are dealing Ryan, we need him now, not the first week of August. And Red Sox fans need to understand that any chance of him meeting the Sox at Wrigley Field this weekend will require a Crochet-level 4-for-1 trade that waves bye-bye to another quartet of legit prospects.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I think a better solution would be to identify an OF'er to play 1B v RHPs. 

We solve the OF logjam, keep Cora happy by playing Yoshida at DH and try to find pitching without trading from the ML roster. (I still prefer trading Duran or Abreu w prospects for someone like Joe Ryan.)

1B: Duran v R/ Romy v L

LF: Anthony v R/Duran v L

CF: Rafaela FT (Duran when resting)

RF: Abreu v R/Anthony v L (Ref DH v L)

No deserving player gets shorted PAs.

[Kimmi]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think a better solution would be to identify an OF'er to play 1B v RHPs. 

We solve the OF logjam, keep Cora happy by playing Yoshida at DH and try to find pitching without trading from the ML roster. (I still prefer trading Duran or Abreu w prospects for someone like Joe Ryan.)

1B: Duran v R/ Romy v L

LF: Anthony v R/Duran v L

CF: Rafaela FT (Duran when resting)

RF: Abreu v R/Anthony v L (Ref DH v L)

No deserving player gets shorted PAs.

I was thinking the same thing, although I was thinking more of Anthony playing first base.  That said, the idea of Anthony playing first base has been nixed by management, and I can understand why.  I'd be good with Duran playing first versus righties.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I was thinking the same thing, although I was thinking more of Anthony playing first base.  That said, the idea of Anthony playing first base has been nixed by management, and I can understand why.  I'd be good with Duran playing first versus righties.

I'm not sure they are going to move Duran to 1b either. All the talk has been to find someone external or trade from their internal surplus of OF.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Kimmi said:

I was thinking the same thing, although I was thinking more of Anthony playing first base.  That said, the idea of Anthony playing first base has been nixed by management, and I can understand why.  I'd be good with Duran playing first versus righties.

I chose Duran, because I think Anthony is a better LF'er and needs to keep working on defense. DH might mess him up more than asking a vet to switch positions.

Rafaela and Abreu are too good on D and play difficult positions, especially in Fenway.

We floated Refsnyder at 1B, since he did play some 1B, long ago, but he'd just play there vs lefties, and we can already free up some OF PAs by having Ref DH v LHPs.

It has to be Duran or Anthony or another plan.

I really don't want to trade Duran or Abreu, but benching one of our OF'ers every game or playing Rafaela at 2B seems foolish, when we have so many needs, including 1B vs righties.

With Abreu sitting vs LHPs, it's a perfect set up, line-up wise, but asking Duran to play 1B is a big ask. (They could have had him practicing for weeks, by now, with extra practice over the ASB.)

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure they are going to move Duran to 1b either. All the talk has been to find someone external or trade from their internal surplus of OF.

I think that is the plan. In some ways it makes more sense.

Trade Duran or Abreu plus some decent prospects for a solid 2/3 SP.

Trade blocked non top 12 prospects for a 1B rental.

Maybe add a RP'er and go for it.

I'm just searching for a way to keep our 4 good OF'ers. Since Cora wants Yoshida at DH, we can't play one there.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

(They could have had him practicing for weeks, by now, with extra practice over the ASB.)

The only OFer practicing there is Masa. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think that is the plan. In some ways it makes more sense.

Trade Duran or Abreu plus some decent prospects for a solid 2/3 SP.

Trade blocked non top 12 prospects for a 1B rental.

Maybe add a RP'er and go for it.

I'm just searching for a way to keep our 4 good OF'ers. Since Cora wants Yoshida at DH, we can't play one there.

I have no idea what the plan is at 1b. I have been confused by it for years. With the emphasis on MIF development, they are top heavy at 1b and C. An injury to Casas or Narvaez and the season was going to be in turmoil. They kind of lucked out so far at 1b. I think Toro is heading the wrong direction. 1b may be Romy's best defensive position. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

First, #1 choice is NOT available because the Diamondbacks are 5.5 games out of the last WC spot and ARI has not made the decision to sell but some writers chose to float the rumor without any documentation of someone from the front office stating it.  Also, ARI traded an excellent prospect that is now starting for CLE and a draft pick to get Naylor when Christian Walker departed.  They would be insane to trade him especially since Pavin Smith the logical trade bait is hurt.

Second, Max Muncy plays 3 infield positions of 3B his normal position, 2B and 1B.  He's a frequently injured player who has limited experience at 1B (2018 to 2021 most recently where he had very mixed performances leaving him average at best and well below average at worst).  Since Bregman has 3B his next best spot would be DH and that helps NOBODY.  Muncy is hitting .250 which is the highest average he's had since 2019 with a career average of .230.  No team should be targeting an injury prone 34 year old 3B to play 1B who doesn't put the ball in play frequently with his .230 average and his average to below average glove at 1B.

Third, Carlos Santana is a 1B unlike Muncy, he's 39 years old and hitting .232 in CLE so far this year.  He has 11 HRS and an OPS+ of 93.  The main reason he's playing in CLE is that their future star 1B is hitting .217 but his OPS+ is 102 vs his 98 the year before.  Both 1Bs are terrible, hardly an upgrade from Campbell or Toro.  

So, if you believe the fake news about Naylor he becomes the best option, but it will be very expensive because he's an excellent player.  He's a FA in 2026 projected to make over $16 Million a year.  If BOS and ARI could agree to a deal, there would be no need for Casas since Naylor is a legitimate starting 1B on a top tier ballclub.  Also, there would be no need for Campbell to keep wasting his time at 1B.  If you want to get this guy it will take Casas, Campbell and something else but the deal would need to include an extension for Naylor.  That would be a deal that could put BOS in the playoffs this year and significantly help the Diamondbacks by providing them with a future star in Campbell.  It all comes down to whether the front office in ARI decides they want to sell and give up on this year's chances of making the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure they are going to move Duran to 1b either. All the talk has been to find someone external or trade from their internal surplus of OF.

I don't disagree.  I'm just trying to find a way not to have to trade any depth away.

[Kimmi]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I chose Duran, because I think Anthony is a better LF'er and needs to keep working on defense. DH might mess him up more than asking a vet to switch positions.

Rafaela and Abreu are too good on D and play difficult positions, especially in Fenway.

We floated Refsnyder at 1B, since he did play some 1B, long ago, but he'd just play there vs lefties, and we can already free up some OF PAs by having Ref DH v LHPs.

It has to be Duran or Anthony or another plan.

I really don't want to trade Duran or Abreu, but benching one of our OF'ers every game or playing Rafaela at 2B seems foolish, when we have so many needs, including 1B vs righties.

With Abreu sitting vs LHPs, it's a perfect set up, line-up wise, but asking Duran to play 1B is a big ask. (They could have had him practicing for weeks, by now, with extra practice over the ASB.)

As MVP stated, I don't think we'll see Duran or Anthony at first base.  Wishful thinking on my part.  It's good to have the flexibility, though moving too many players out of position can do more harm than good.

This is why we pay Breslow the big bucks.  

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I have no idea what the plan is at 1b. I have been confused by it for years. With the emphasis on MIF development, they are top heavy at 1b and C. An injury to Casas or Narvaez and the season was going to be in turmoil. They kind of lucked out so far at 1b. I think Toro is heading the wrong direction. 1b may be Romy's best defensive position. 

Agreed. 

I think they just put all their plan on Casas being healthy. I do think Casas would have had a decent year at the plate, but he showed no signs of ever being better than any other 1Bman on D. Maybe they just accepted that as the cost of having a good hitter at 1B.

Trading Meidroth was something that hurt more than any of us thought, at the time.

Toro was always just a 4A addition. Romy has been a godsend, but only vs LHPs.

Devers should have been the plan the second we signed Bregman. I still am sure he'll be a better 1Bman than Casas. We should have had Devers at 1B and Casas at DH, opening day. (Casas as a back-up 1Bman would be fine.)

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

As MVP stated, I don't think we'll see Duran or Anthony at first base.  Wishful thinking on my part.  It's good to have the flexibility, though moving too many players out of position can do more harm than good.

This is why we pay Breslow the big bucks.  

Brez could be wrong on this, but I'm not pretending to know more than he does.

[Kimmi]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Brez could be wrong on this, but I'm not pretending to know more than he does.

He may be looking into making a move that none of us will have seen coming.  

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

He may be looking into making a move that none of us will have seen coming.  

Chances are he gets someone nobody has mentioned.

He may get 2-3 players, so maybe one will be a guy we discussed.

[moonslav59]

We've been hearing posters wanting Joe Ryan, but what about Pablo Lopez? He's ties with Keller for fWAR since 2024 (4.8: ranked 22nd.)

He makes $21.8M for '26 and '27, but his AAV is $18.4- about the same as Keller's. He's just 29 and will be 31, when his contract expires.

2021-2025

3.63 ERA (117 ERA+) 88 ERA-

3.44 FIP

1.16 WHIP

9.7K to 2.3 BB per 9 (His 20.2 K-BB% is 10th best in MLB our of 44 pitchers with 600+ IP since '21. He's 19th out of 144 pitchers with 400+ IP.)

He should cost less than Ryan due to the money differential.

[Duran Is The Man]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We've been hearing posters wanting Joe Ryan, but what about Pablo Lopez? He's ties with Keller for fWAR since 2024 (4.8: ranked 22nd.)

He makes $21.8M for '26 and '27, but his AAV is $18.4- about the same as Keller's. He's just 29 and will be 31, when his contract expires.

2021-2025

3.63 ERA (117 ERA+) 88 ERA-

3.44 FIP

1.16 WHIP

9.7K to 2.3 BB per 9 (His 20.2 K-BB% is 10th best in MLB our of 44 pitchers with 600+ IP since '21. He's 19th out of 144 pitchers with 400+ IP.)

He should cost less than Ryan due to the money differential.

Lopez is out with a shoulder strain since early June and it won't be available until early August, at best, so, yeah, he should fit right in.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Lopez is out with a shoulder strain since early June and it won't be available until early August, at best, so, yeah, he should fit right in.

Did not know this.

Cancel the thought.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Did not know this.

Cancel the thought.

i didn't either until you mentioned him. and like you, i liked the idea until i found out he was hurt.

[Hitch]

21 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yandy Diaz may be a better fit over the three guys in the article. He's a righty stick with oppo pop, and a batting champ who doesn't strike out much - exactly what will make this line-up better. 

Naylor will cost the most in prospect talent, because Breslow will also acquire one of Arizona's starters on expiring contracts: Kelly or Gallen. This trade should be engineered asap, so the Sox will be fortified for the upcoming stretch vs. good MLB teams. The Snakes can wait until the deadline for the best package, so if Boston is serious about contending this summer, Brez has to overpay to make it happen sooner, before the thin rotation is exposed.

This one-stop shopping is the best scenario, because Joe Ryan alone -- if he is actually available -- is an overpay probably not worth investing in... unless the front office really believes the Young Sox are already ready to go deep into October this year.

Again, IF the Twins are dealing Ryan, we need him now, not the first week of August. And Red Sox fans need to understand that any chance of him meeting the Sox at Wrigley Field this weekend will require a Crochet-level 4-for-1 trade that waves bye-bye to another quartet of legit prospects.

 

 

Yandy has been linked the last 24 hours. The Sox really want him if the Rays are dealing apparently. He would be my firm number 1 choice - would cost a pretty penny though. 

I agree on getting Ryan(another) in sooner rather than the later, too, but I think they will wait, just to make sure this team is for real, and if not pivot and reload for next year. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. 

I think they just put all their plan on Casas being healthy. I do think Casas would have had a decent year at the plate, but he showed no signs of ever being better than any other 1Bman on D. Maybe they just accepted that as the cost of having a good hitter at 1B.

Trading Meidroth was something that hurt more than any of us thought, at the time.

Toro was always just a 4A addition. Romy has been a godsend, but only vs LHPs.

Devers should have been the plan the second we signed Bregman. I still am sure he'll be a better 1Bman than Casas. We should have had Devers at 1B and Casas at DH, opening day. (Casas as a back-up 1Bman would be fine.)

It's crazy to plan on Casas being healthy after witnessing his career up to this point. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's crazy to plan on Casas being healthy after witnessing his career up to this point. 

100%. We ned to plan as if he is not coming back. There's little evidence to suggest he should be counted on as our starting first baseman going forward. If he comes back and rakes - great, but that's a problem to solve down the line. 

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

As MVP stated, I don't think we'll see Duran or Anthony at first base.  Wishful thinking on my part.  It's good to have the flexibility, though moving too many players out of position can do more harm than good.

This is why we pay Breslow the big bucks.  

Yeah, Im with you.  Id love to see Duran or Anthony at 1b and trade someone not currently on MLB roster to fortify pitching, but I'm coming to terms that its prob not going to happen.

[notin]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The only OFer practicing there is Masa. 

This accomplishes the same thing.  Odd choice because maybe outside of Rafaela, Yoshida is probably the shortest player in the Sox system above A ball…

[urban cowboy]

In my view, this would be a class "dumb team" kind of deal that keeps you stuck in mediocrity. We beat up on some weak teams and all that's happened before that is forgotten and now we're a world series contender. We're not quite there yet, but we're on the verge of a great run, so just be patient and build a little bit more. I love that they drafting a ton of pitchers. I would deal bregman and chapman for young pitching and a stockpile of draft picks over several years in the future, so we can re-load when the Big 3 are up for their big bucks. But that's really playing the long game. 

[Deja Doh]

I don't think Ryan is going anywhere.  The Twins don't have Lopez or Ober at the moment out with injuries.  They have no other decent starter.

The Dodgers are not going to trade Max Muncy.  Since he's fixed his glasses he can see and hit the ball.  

We need a big right handed bat.