The First Base Rental Market is Weak, but the Red Sox Can Still Swing a Trade

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't have Naylor as the #1 acquisition because I think his pull heavy profile would be a bad fit for Fenway. He doesn't have enough power to really rake in BOS. He'd probably be an upgrade over Toro, but I think Muncy or Santana could put up more numbers over the last few months of '25 in a stretch run. That's all you need them for anyway. 

Santana’s primarily a pull hitter as well, but at least he is a switch hitter.

I like Naylor over Santana.  Muncy is a tougher call.

Naylor this year has become a threat as a baserunner, which is no small feat considering he’s basically the MLB equivalent of a sloth on crutches.  He’s also fairly adept around the bag.

The downside is Arizona is prioritizing young pitching in any deal for their trade candidates.  BTV gives Naylor a surplus value of $3.2mill.  From the Sox minor leagues, the closest matches are Jedixson Paez, Hayden Mullins, and Blake Wehunt.  Is that really enough? It might be because historically 1b is not a huge priority for a lot of teams at the deadline.

Also - no mention of Rhys Hoskins?  I know Hes out with a sprained thumb, but he is expected to return this year.  Maybe mid-August?

Also, Yandy Diaz needs some mention.  Former batting champ whose 2026 $12mill option was already picked up, and has a $13mill 2027 option.

With the Rays being for sale, they might be willing to move more money and change their financial picture somewhat.

Also it would be really nice to no longer have to face this guy…

Yandy Diaz may be a better fit over the three guys in the article. He's a righty stick with oppo pop, and a batting champ who doesn't strike out much - exactly what will make this line-up better. 

Naylor will cost the most in prospect talent, because Breslow will also acquire one of Arizona's starters on expiring contracts: Kelly or Gallen. This trade should be engineered asap, so the Sox will be fortified for the upcoming stretch vs. good MLB teams. The Snakes can wait until the deadline for the best package, so if Boston is serious about contending this summer, Brez has to overpay to make it happen sooner, before the thin rotation is exposed.

This one-stop shopping is the best scenario, because Joe Ryan alone -- if he is actually available -- is an overpay probably not worth investing in... unless the front office really believes the Young Sox are already ready to go deep into October this year.

Again, IF the Twins are dealing Ryan, we need him now, not the first week of August. And Red Sox fans need to understand that any chance of him meeting the Sox at Wrigley Field this weekend will require a Crochet-level 4-for-1 trade that waves bye-bye to another quartet of legit prospects.

I think a better solution would be to identify an OF'er to play 1B v RHPs. 

We solve the OF logjam, keep Cora happy by playing Yoshida at DH and try to find pitching without trading from the ML roster. (I still prefer trading Duran or Abreu w prospects for someone like Joe Ryan.)

1B: Duran v R/ Romy v L

LF: Anthony v R/Duran v L

CF: Rafaela FT (Duran when resting)

RF: Abreu v R/Anthony v L (Ref DH v L)

No deserving player gets shorted PAs.

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think a better solution would be to identify an OF'er to play 1B v RHPs. 

We solve the OF logjam, keep Cora happy by playing Yoshida at DH and try to find pitching without trading from the ML roster. (I still prefer trading Duran or Abreu w prospects for someone like Joe Ryan.)

1B: Duran v R/ Romy v L

LF: Anthony v R/Duran v L

CF: Rafaela FT (Duran when resting)

RF: Abreu v R/Anthony v L (Ref DH v L)

No deserving player gets shorted PAs.

I was thinking the same thing, although I was thinking more of Anthony playing first base.  That said, the idea of Anthony playing first base has been nixed by management, and I can understand why.  I'd be good with Duran playing first versus righties.

1 minute ago, Kimmi said:

I was thinking the same thing, although I was thinking more of Anthony playing first base.  That said, the idea of Anthony playing first base has been nixed by management, and I can understand why.  I'd be good with Duran playing first versus righties.

I chose Duran, because I think Anthony is a better LF'er and needs to keep working on defense. DH might mess him up more than asking a vet to switch positions.

Rafaela and Abreu are too good on D and play difficult positions, especially in Fenway.

We floated Refsnyder at 1B, since he did play some 1B, long ago, but he'd just play there vs lefties, and we can already free up some OF PAs by having Ref DH v LHPs.

It has to be Duran or Anthony or another plan.

I really don't want to trade Duran or Abreu, but benching one of our OF'ers every game or playing Rafaela at 2B seems foolish, when we have so many needs, including 1B vs righties.

With Abreu sitting vs LHPs, it's a perfect set up, line-up wise, but asking Duran to play 1B is a big ask. (They could have had him practicing for weeks, by now, with extra practice over the ASB.)

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure they are going to move Duran to 1b either. All the talk has been to find someone external or trade from their internal surplus of OF.

I think that is the plan. In some ways it makes more sense.

Trade Duran or Abreu plus some decent prospects for a solid 2/3 SP.

Trade blocked non top 12 prospects for a 1B rental.

Maybe add a RP'er and go for it.

I'm just searching for a way to keep our 4 good OF'ers. Since Cora wants Yoshida at DH, we can't play one there.

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure they are going to move Duran to 1b either. All the talk has been to find someone external or trade from their internal surplus of OF.

I don't disagree.  I'm just trying to find a way not to have to trade any depth away.

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I chose Duran, because I think Anthony is a better LF'er and needs to keep working on defense. DH might mess him up more than asking a vet to switch positions.

Rafaela and Abreu are too good on D and play difficult positions, especially in Fenway.

We floated Refsnyder at 1B, since he did play some 1B, long ago, but he'd just play there vs lefties, and we can already free up some OF PAs by having Ref DH v LHPs.

It has to be Duran or Anthony or another plan.

I really don't want to trade Duran or Abreu, but benching one of our OF'ers every game or playing Rafaela at 2B seems foolish, when we have so many needs, including 1B vs righties.

With Abreu sitting vs LHPs, it's a perfect set up, line-up wise, but asking Duran to play 1B is a big ask. (They could have had him practicing for weeks, by now, with extra practice over the ASB.)

As MVP stated, I don't think we'll see Duran or Anthony at first base.  Wishful thinking on my part.  It's good to have the flexibility, though moving too many players out of position can do more harm than good.

This is why we pay Breslow the big bucks.  

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I have no idea what the plan is at 1b. I have been confused by it for years. With the emphasis on MIF development, they are top heavy at 1b and C. An injury to Casas or Narvaez and the season was going to be in turmoil. They kind of lucked out so far at 1b. I think Toro is heading the wrong direction. 1b may be Romy's best defensive position. 

Agreed. 

I think they just put all their plan on Casas being healthy. I do think Casas would have had a decent year at the plate, but he showed no signs of ever being better than any other 1Bman on D. Maybe they just accepted that as the cost of having a good hitter at 1B.

Trading Meidroth was something that hurt more than any of us thought, at the time.

Toro was always just a 4A addition. Romy has been a godsend, but only vs LHPs.

Devers should have been the plan the second we signed Bregman. I still am sure he'll be a better 1Bman than Casas. We should have had Devers at 1B and Casas at DH, opening day. (Casas as a back-up 1Bman would be fine.)

8 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

As MVP stated, I don't think we'll see Duran or Anthony at first base.  Wishful thinking on my part.  It's good to have the flexibility, though moving too many players out of position can do more harm than good.

This is why we pay Breslow the big bucks.  

Brez could be wrong on this, but I'm not pretending to know more than he does.

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Brez could be wrong on this, but I'm not pretending to know more than he does.

He may be looking into making a move that none of us will have seen coming.  

14 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

He may be looking into making a move that none of us will have seen coming.  

Chances are he gets someone nobody has mentioned.

He may get 2-3 players, so maybe one will be a guy we discussed.

We've been hearing posters wanting Joe Ryan, but what about Pablo Lopez? He's ties with Keller for fWAR since 2024 (4.8: ranked 22nd.)

He makes $21.8M for '26 and '27, but his AAV is $18.4- about the same as Keller's. He's just 29 and will be 31, when his contract expires.

2021-2025

3.63 ERA (117 ERA+) 88 ERA-

3.44 FIP

1.16 WHIP

9.7K to 2.3 BB per 9 (His 20.2 K-BB% is 10th best in MLB our of 44 pitchers with 600+ IP since '21. He's 19th out of 144 pitchers with 400+ IP.)

He should cost less than Ryan due to the money differential.

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Lopez is out with a shoulder strain since early June and it won't be available until early August, at best, so, yeah, he should fit right in.

Did not know this.

Cancel the thought.

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The only OFer practicing there is Masa. 

This accomplishes the same thing.  Odd choice because maybe outside of Rafaela, Yoshida is probably the shortest player in the Sox system above A ball…

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's crazy to plan on Casas being healthy after witnessing his career up to this point. 

Casas is a non- tender candidate.  If the Sox do drop him, hopefully that action doesn’t injure him further…