The .500 Boston Red Sox

[mvp 78]

For the 15th time this season (excluding Opening Day), the Boston Red Sox are at .500. The 2024 squad was at .500 on 23 occasions. At this pace, they could surpass last year's total around August 19th. 

[Hitch]

My concern with this is the deadline. If we're around 2/3 games out we'll try thread the needle again, when in fact I think we should sell off. I absolutely do not want us to, but I also have no faith the team can shake off this .500 tag and get it done this year. 

Chapman would bring some significant pieces back. Incredibly I think we might get something for Beuhler. If Gio can give another 3/4 good performances, he will be interesting to teams. Then you have Duran/Abreu. And the top prize, Bregman if they're not looking to extend him and take out the opt out. 

There's a lot of pieces that can be got in return for that list, but they either have to be contributors at the MLB level next year, or prospects flipped to do so. Simply getting more prospects just ins't going to move the needle.

This off season is looking bare on free agents that fit our needs. I don't want to give up on this year, but .500 just isn't getting it done and I'd rather we proper retool for next year. 

[mvp 78]

I agree with retooling. This team, even if could sneak into the third playoff spot, isn't going to go on some postseason run. It's not good enough. The starting pitching isn't there. The bullpen is going to be haggard by the time September rolls around. The offense has more holes than one of my dad's 40 year old suits. The defense would let the team down at too many crucial moments that there's little chance they could win many close games down the stretch. 

The problem with this team is roster construction. They need 3 starting pitchers, 4 relievers and to turn over a substantial portion of the offense. The bones of this team just aren't good enough. 

[Hitch]

Agreed to a point. I think we have plenty of good to build on, but plenty of building left to do. And of course, trusting them to get the re-tool done correctly takes a big leap of faith. But sadly, it does feel the correct course.

[Duran Is The Man]

i'd try to extend Chapman and sell off the junk, including the front office -as they have no clue as to what "pieces" are worth trading for. 

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, the 2022-2025 Red Sox have done an amazing nonstop dance around the .500 mark.  We're getting close to 600 games of it.

[Jasonbay44]

45 minutes ago, Hitch said:

My concern with this is the deadline. If we're around 2/3 games out we'll try thread the needle again, when in fact I think we should sell off. I absolutely do not want us to, but I also have no faith the team can shake off this .500 tag and get it done this year. 

Chapman would bring some significant pieces back. Incredibly I think we might get something for Beuhler. If Gio can give another 3/4 good performances, he will be interesting to teams. Then you have Duran/Abreu. And the top prize, Bregman if they're not looking to extend him and take out the opt out. 

There's a lot of pieces that can be got in return for that list, but they either have to be contributors at the MLB level next year, or prospects flipped to do so. Simply getting more prospects just ins't going to move the needle.

This off season is looking bare on free agents that fit our needs. I don't want to give up on this year, but .500 just isn't getting it done and I'd rather we proper retool for next year. 

I don’t think there is any kind of trade market for Buehler. No team needs a pitcher with an ERA over 6 and a -1.2 WAR. He likely gets designated for assignment and if anyone wants him, they can have him for cash considerations. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I don’t think there is any kind of trade market for Buehler. No team needs a pitcher with an ERA over 6 and a -1.2 WAR. He likely gets designated for assignment and if anyone wants him, they can have him for cash considerations. 

He's not even DFA'able. You hold onto him in case you need someone to throw innings down the stretch considering all the injuries that happen to starters. 🫣

[Hitch]

20 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I don’t think there is any kind of trade market for Buehler. No team needs a pitcher with an ERA over 6 and a -1.2 WAR. He likely gets designated for assignment and if anyone wants him, they can have him for cash considerations. 

I would normally agree 100% - yet that's all I see are reports from people saying someone will give up a lottery ticket for Buehler due to his post season work. I find it doubtful too, but seeing it said enough that I'm starting to consider it possible.

Regardless, it would be not much of a piece so not worth considering in terms of what the rest could bring us.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I would normally agree 100% - yet that's all I see are reports from people saying someone will give up a lottery ticket for Buehler due to his post season work. I find it doubtful too, but seeing it said enough that I'm starting to consider it possible.

Regardless, it would be not much of a piece so not worth considering in terms of what the rest could bring us.

Buehler had a nice stretch from mid April to mid May, but that pitcher went AWOL. Not sure he has any trade value unless the Sox eat all the salary and the return would still be minimal. 

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Buehler had a nice stretch from mid April to mid May, but that pitcher went AWOL. Not sure he has any trade value unless the Sox eat all the salary and the return would still be minimal. 

Depending on where they are with the luxury tax (in case of a sell off), I think they'd be prepared to eat it all for a lottery ticket. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Depending on where they are with the luxury tax (in case of a sell off), I think they'd be prepared to eat it all for a lottery ticket. 

They are currently OVER the lux tax. A trade of Buehler and Chapman at the deadline should get them under it. 

[jad]

Who in their right mind is going to take on Buehler's salary?  I mean, besides Breslow and Henry?

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, jad said:

Who in their right mind is going to take on Buehler's salary?  I mean, besides Breslow and Henry?

You said "in their right mind".....that leaves Breslow and Henry out.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, jad said:

Who in their right mind is going to take on Buehler's salary?  I mean, besides Breslow and Henry?

It's why you can't rely on FA to build your team. Too much risk involved.

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

For the 15th time this season (excluding Opening Day), the Boston Red Sox are at .500. The 2024 squad was at .500 on 23 occasions. At this pace, they could surpass last year's total around August 19th. 

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

For the 15th time this season (excluding Opening Day), the Boston Red Sox are at .500. The 2024 squad was at .500 on 23 occasions. At this pace, they could surpass last year's total around August 19th. 

Well said and supported by sound statistics.  

But I'm a tad more optimistic.  For starters, I really like the additions of Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, and Narvaez. 

When Bregman returns and replaces Hamilton in the lineup, the Sox hitting and defense will improve.  I like Mayer and Anthony and think their hitting will improve this season.  Rafaela (.918) and Story (.825) both have OPS's over .800 in June.  

So I think a lineup of Anthony LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF, Bregman 3b, Mayer SS, Story 2b, Toro/Gonzalez/whoever 1b, and Yoshida/Ref/Duran at DH would be good on offense and defense.  

The problem is pitching.  Breslow done good bringing in Crochet and Chapman, but you need 11 more pitchers of some competency, and all those arms on the IL are part of the problem.   On the plus side it was just 10 days ago when the Sox got 6 straight excellent starts from Giolito, Buehler, Crochet, Dobbins, Bello, and Giolito again.  Same goes for the bullpen who were also excellent on that run.

So I'm not at all ready to throw in the towel, and I hope the FO isn't either.  

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's why you can't rely on FA to build your team. Too much risk involved.

it's why you can't rely on rehabbed, broken-down. pitching project free agents. the Sox have been burned so many times, yet they keep tying. LOLOL.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

it's why you can't rely on rehabbed, broken-down. pitching project free agents. the Sox have been burned so many times, yet they keep tying. LOLOL.

If they went out and signed Burnes to a massive deal, he'd be out for the year too. Manaea hasn't even pitched yet this seasons (3/75). 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's why you can't rely on FA to build your team. Too much risk involved.

Don't Trust Anyone Over 30 (Sixties poster from my youth).

This is why Breslow and Bailey -- MLB pitchers in a past life -- shouldn't even think about trading Tolle or Clarke or Harrison for some swing-and-miss past-his-prime first baseman... as was suggested in some clickbait "article" (I think it was Tolle for Hoskins -- wanna see some real uproar here?).

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't Trust Anyone Over 30 (Sixties poster from my youth).

This is why Breslow and Bailey -- MLB pitchers in a past life -- shouldn't even think about trading Tolle or Clarke or Harrison for some swing-and-miss past-his-prime first baseman... as was suggested in some clickbait "article" (I think it was Tolle for Hoskins -- wanna see some real uproar here?).

I think you can get Hoskins for much less or just wait until the offseason. Is it really worth it for two months? I don't think so. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's not even DFA'able. You hold onto him in case you need someone to throw innings down the stretch considering all the injuries that happen to starters. 🫣

The best thing I can post about Buehler is he knows how to pitch without balking.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'd try to extend Chapman and sell off the junk, including the front office -as they have no clue as to what "pieces" are worth trading for. 

He'll turn 38 before the 2026 season, which is younger than Jansen was, when we did not extend him.

If he keeps this up, I'm all for bringing him back for 1 more season. I'd have been fine with bringing Jansen back for 1 more, too.

[moonslav59]

How often do we get into the same boat at the deadline? We always need a SP'er, and the cost is always way too high to make it worthwhile- ALWAYS.

I do give Breslow credit for at least trying to be proactive in building up some very convincing rotation depth in his 2 short years with the team. Even I thought we had enough, although I did point out it was heavy on mediocrity & promise more than quality and dependability.

Look at the list we had, at the start of 2025:

Crochet: awesome trade & extension

Houck: sucked then IL

Buehler: highest AAV paid to a Sox pitcher since Price. Sucked.

Crawford: On IL, all year and just had a "setback."

Sandoval: Signed for August and 2026. A rare deal over 1 year.

Bello: One of the few brighter spots of this rotation.

Giolito: Largest contract given to any Sox pitchers since Nate, until Crochet's extension kicks in.

Fitts: Has shown some good, some bad and some meh.

Priester: Traded for Y Rod & Holebetz. (Added Harrison, recently)

Newcomb: A stab in the dark that ended up pretty bloody.

Dobbins: was pretty far down on the depth chart, and now is on the IL, after doing well.

Criswell: yet to be used a starter, despite decent success as one in '24.

Whitlock (FT pen arm, now) & Wink (60 Day IL): rightfully delegated to the pen. Murphy (60 Day IL) may end up in the pen, too.

Non 40 man roster depth: Uberstine, Drohan (IL,) Stock, Early (AA) and Sandlin (AA.)

That's a list at least 10 deep. We've tried 8, so far (No Sandoval, Fitts, Crawford and of course Priester.)

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

3 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Well said and supported by sound statistics.  

But I'm a tad more optimistic.  For starters, I really like the additions of Bregman, Crochet, Chapman, and Narvaez. 

When Bregman returns and replaces Hamilton in the lineup, the Sox hitting and defense will improve.  I like Mayer and Anthony and think their hitting will improve this season.  Rafaela (.918) and Story (.825) both have OPS's over .800 in June.  

So I think a lineup of Anthony LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF, Bregman 3b, Mayer SS, Story 2b, Toro/Gonzalez/whoever 1b, and Yoshida/Ref/Duran at DH would be good on offense and defense.  

The problem is pitching.  Breslow done good bringing in Crochet and Chapman, but you need 11 more pitchers of some competency, and all those arms on the IL are part of the problem.   On the plus side it was just 10 days ago when the Sox got 6 straight excellent starts from Giolito, Buehler, Crochet, Dobbins, Bello, and Giolito again.  Same goes for the bullpen who were also excellent on that run.

So I'm not at all ready to throw in the towel, and I hope the FO isn't either.  

 

 

I love this post, Max.  Thank you for your optimism.  Count me in.

It's been a frustrating few years, for sure.  Every time the team goes on a nice little run, they tend to follow it up with an equally bad run.  :(   Baseball is such a funny game.

As you've mentioned, there is good reason to be hopeful.  With just over 1/2 the season left to play, it is far too early to throw in the towel.  A lot can happen in just the span of one week.

[Kimmi]

Maybe Breslow will shock the world (again) with a pitching acquisition blockbuster at the deadline.  We know he has it in him to do something bold.

[moonslav59]

When is the last time a Sox GM added a Crochet, a Bregman, a Chapman, a Narvaez and a Wilson in one winter?

Oh and oops, he signed Buehler, so let's fire Brez.

 

[Kimmi]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

When is the last time a Sox GM added a Crochet, a Bregman, a Chapman, a Narvaez and a Wilson in one winter?

Oh and oops, he signed Buehler, so let's fire Brez.

 

Breslow addressed what most considered to be our biggest needs this offseason, and he wasn't exactly cheap about it.  He did his job this offseason, outside of the lack of communication issues.

Needless to say, a lot has happened since the season started, but I think most people thought this would be a very competitive team.  Not that we're out of it, but most thought we'd be a decent number of games over .500 rather than hovering right at .500.

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Breslow addressed what most considered to be our biggest needs this offseason, and he wasn't exactly cheap about it.  He did his job this offseason, outside of the lack of communication issues.

Needless to say, a lot has happened since the season started, but I think most people thought this would be a very competitive team.  Not that we're out of it, but most thought we'd be a decent number of games over .500 rather than hovering right at .500.

I agree 100%. After the Bregman signing I found myself quite optimistic, and was up until the devers trade.  Not trying to harp on that or bring it back up, but it was a turning point for me. I became much less optimistic that theyll figure it out this year (or next)

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Breslow addressed what most considered to be our biggest needs this offseason, and he wasn't exactly cheap about it.  He did his job this offseason, outside of the lack of communication issues.

Needless to say, a lot has happened since the season started, but I think most people thought this would be a very competitive team.  Not that we're out of it, but most thought we'd be a decent number of games over .500 rather than hovering right at .500.

I still think this team is better than .500, and the run differential hints at that being true.

With so many teams that were better than us in 2024, doing nothing or even getting worse over the winter, I expected better than 40 and 40.

I'm still optimistic, but we've seen too many recent Sox teams get worse in AUG & SEPT, so I have my doubts about 2025.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree 100%. After the Bregman signing I found myself quite optimistic, and was up until the devers trade.  Not trying to harp on that or bring it back up, but it was a turning point for me. I became much less optimistic that theyll figure it out this year (or next)

Agreed. We can't expect to get better than 40-40 with no Devers.

All teams have injuries and hopes tied to returning IL players.

I'd rather we be sellers than stand pat, at the deadline, but I'm also dead set against trading top young players and prospects for a 2 month rental or two.

Sounds familiar? YUP!