Article: After A Rough Few Months Is It Time For Alex Cora To Be On The Hot Seat?

[dgalehouse]

As far as pitching injuries are concerned, I have neither the time or the desire to do any research on this. But I do find it hard to believe that there were more pitching injuries four years ago than there are these days. Right now , it seems epidemic. At least three more yesterday. 

[Kimmi]

50 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

None of the other starters have been very good at all.

fWAR

Dobbins 0.8

Newcomb (gone) 0.7

Giolito 0.2

Fitts 0.2

Buehler 0.2

Bello 0.0

I know they haven't been very good, and I understand the 3rd time through the order business.  I just feel like there were times when any of these guys were pitching well enough with a low enough pitch count to be left in for 1 or 2 more outs.  

I was just reading your point in the other thread about the LOOGY coming in for 1 out to finish the inning, which makes a lot of sense.  That would account for some of it.

 

[illinoisredsox]

27 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I don't think any of the great pitchers would appreciate being yanked after 4.2 innings.  I think Cora is just doing what he thinks gives the team their best chance of winning. And he might also be sending a message to Bello and the others. Pitching changes , or lack of same, are the number one cause of managers being second guessed.  

Your first line reminds me of Bob Gibson’s 1968 season (the one where he had a 1.12 ERA).  He threw 28 complete games in 34 starts and was never removed from the mound during an inning once all season.  The only times he was replaced were when he was pinch hit for. My guess is if Red Schoendist had tried, Bob would’ve killed him.

[jdc69]

59 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, fWAR may not be the ideal number, but none of these guys have been especially good.  Dobbins has been the one pleasant surprise.  There may be hope for Fitts if he can stay on the field.

You'd have to go through the game logs to see if there were instances of a guy truly cruising when Cora pulled him.

The third time through the order analytics stuff plays into it too of course.  

I can think of two. One against Toronto with Houck pitching and he was having a great outing but with only an 85 pitch count. It was, though in the 6th inning when they pulled him. Cora actually did the same to Giolito the day before but was Gios first day back from injury, so I'm not counting that one. The other one was pulling Crochet with an 86 pitch count against the Mets. All three of them were lost quickly by the BP. It also seemed to be the catalyst for losing streaks after we had been building up wins and momentum.

[illinoisredsox]

The only one of these 4 2/3 removals that made any sense to me was Giolito’s on Friday; the batter was Matt Olson, who careerwise has hit about .700 against Lucas with 4 homers and a ton of RBIs. I know, SSS, but at least that one had some data to back it up.

[Kimmi]

31 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

I don't think any of the great pitchers would appreciate being yanked after 4.2 innings.  I think Cora is just doing what he thinks gives the team their best chance of winning. And he might also be sending a message to Bello and the others. Pitching changes , or lack of same, are the number one cause of managers being second guessed.  

Having a starter pulled after 4.2 innings seemed to always hurt my fantasy teams.  LOL  It isn't just Cora who's doing it.

You are right about the manager being second guessed about pitching changes.  Regardless of the decision, leave a pitcher in or take him out, if the outcome is not favorable, Cora will be blamed or second guessed.

It's fair to second guess.  I don't think it's fair to lay blame. 

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

The only one of these 4 2/3 removals that made any sense to me was Giolito’s on Friday; the batter was Matt Olson, who careerwise has hit about .700 against Lucas with 4 homers and a ton of RBIs. I know, SSS, but at least that one had some data to back it up.

I believe the other ones had sound reasoning too.  I checked out a couple of Bello's and understood them.

Unfortunately part of that reasoning is a simple lack of trust in starters other than Crochet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 hours ago, Kimmi said:

It's fair to second guess.  I don't think it's fair to lay blame. 

Anybody can second guess. I prefer to first guess -- at the time a move is being made.

At a travel ball game over the weekend, in a scoreless contest with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, the manager had his #3 batter bunt them over. As soon as I saw the kid square around I said, "No." Not just because the guy has a good bat, but because he hits to the opposite field with authority. I'd rather not give up the out but let him hit to the right side; maybe he gets a hit and drives in a run or at least hits a grounder or fly ball that can move the lead runner to 3rd with one out.

Btw: he hit a sacrifice bunt and the run eventually scored... but I'd still rather let that particular batter swing away -- though not if he was a dead pull hitter (which happened later, same situation, when the leadoff man drilled a one-hopper right at the third baseman for an easy double play).

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anybody can second guess. I prefer to first guess -- at the time a move is being made.

At a travel ball game over the weekend, in a scoreless contest with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, the manager had his #3 batter bunt them over. As soon as I saw the kid square around I said, "No." Not just because the guy has a good bat, but because he hits to the opposite field with authority. I'd rather not give up the out but let him hit to the right side; maybe he gets a hit and drives in a run or at least hits a grounder or fly ball that can move the lead runner to 3rd with one out.

Btw: he hit a sacrifice bunt and the run eventually scored... but I'd still rather let that particular batter swing away -- though not if he was a dead pull hitter (which happened later, same situation, when the leadoff man drilled a one-hopper right at the third baseman for an easy double play).

I'm pretty sure the data shows that runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs is the only situation where a successful bunt increases the total expected runs scored.  Which is a completely separate thing from the question of bunting to increase the chances of scoring one run. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm pretty sure the data shows that runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs is the only situation where a successful bunt increases the total expected runs scored.  Which is a completely separate thing from the question of bunting to increase the chances of scoring one run. 

Not disputing the data, but specific batters have to be considered. 

My example was a guy who regularly tries to hit to the opposite field, and usually succeeds (even if it's not always a "hit"). Letting him swing probably gives as much a chance to move the runner, and definitely better odds to plate the runner.

The reason Cora and some other managers don't bunt -- according to announcers, especially ex-players -- is because modern MLB batters can't bunt, since they don't even practice it anymore.

[notin]

18 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

 

You'd have to go through the game logs to see if there were instances of a guy truly cruising when Cora pulled him.

The third time through the order analytics stuff plays into it too of course.  

Remember when he pulled Rich Hill when he gave up a single after he retired the first 14 batters in the game?

Obviously a while ago, but very Classic Cora.

Giolito the other day was more along the lines of what people are talking about…

[mvp 78]

58 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not disputing the data, but specific batters have to be considered. 

My example was a guy who regularly tries to hit to the opposite field, and usually succeeds (even if it's not always a "hit"). Letting him swing probably gives as much a chance to move the runner, and definitely better odds to plate the runner.

The reason Cora and some other managers don't bunt -- according to announcers, especially ex-players -- is because modern MLB batters can't bunt, since they don't even practice it anymore.

They don't bunt, because they don't believe it's a play that is worth it anymore. It's a wasted at bat for the most part. Small ball is gauche. We want dingers, launch angles and are less worried about whiffs. There are more homeruns per game, but not more runs per game. Yay? 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Remember when he pulled Rich Hill when he gave up a single after he retired the first 14 batters in the game?

Obviously a while ago, but very Classic Cora.

Giolito the other day was more along the lines of what people are talking about…

Are you thinking of this game: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL202204290.shtml

It was the first 12 batters and Houck was being used as the planned piggy back guy. If the piggy back is ready, just bring him in. 

They rode Hill so hard that he was injured at the deadline and couldn't be traded. The oldest pitcher in baseball. 🫠

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you thinking of this game: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL202204290.shtml

It was the first 12 batters and Houck was being used as the planned piggy back guy. If the piggy back is ready, just bring him in. 

They rode Hill so hard that he was injured at the deadline and couldn't be traded. The oldest pitcher in baseball. 🫠

Geezer's back was too brittle to give piggy rides.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you thinking of this game: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL202204290.shtml

It was the first 12 batters and Houck was being used as the planned piggy back guy. If the piggy back is ready, just bring him in. 

They rode Hill so hard that he was injured at the deadline and couldn't be traded. The oldest pitcher in baseball. 🫠

Piggyback or not, that was the most bizarre hook   I’ve ever seen.  Perfect through 4 and yet not eligible Gomorrah the win through no fault of his own…

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

4 games under .500, 4.5 back of the last WC spot with 5 teams ahead of them.

If or when the sox miss the playoffs again, should cora be fired at that point?

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

4 games under .500, 4.5 back of the last WC spot with 5 teams ahead of them.

If or when the sox miss the playoffs again, should cora be fired at that point?

Nope. It's not his fault the starting 1B and 3B were lost to injury and the rotation became a mess. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nope. It's not his fault the starting 1B and 3B were lost to injury and the rotation became a mess. 

So then brez get's the axe?

[jdc69]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nope. It's not his fault the starting 1B and 3B were lost to injury and the rotation became a mess. 

Its either Coras or Breslows. If they had thought it out they could have offered Devers 1st base right away instead of saying Bregman was going to play 2nd and then changing it up. That could've brought Yoshida to DH. Losing Casas should have been a blessing in disguise,  respectfully, because he wasnt contributing much, but because of their blundering, they couldnt take advantage.

And I think Cora definitely is partly responsible for the rotation, pulling them when they were having good outings, not letting them figure it out when having some trouble. And of course the bullpen is getting overworked because of it.

There's other bits that could be brought up too like they were saying that Walker Buelher was saying he really wasn't injured but got sat anyway and moves by Cora like Wong pinch running for Narvaez for a not good enough reason and it actually came back to bite us. 

[Kimmi]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anybody can second guess. I prefer to first guess -- at the time a move is being made.

At a travel ball game over the weekend, in a scoreless contest with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, the manager had his #3 batter bunt them over. As soon as I saw the kid square around I said, "No." Not just because the guy has a good bat, but because he hits to the opposite field with authority. I'd rather not give up the out but let him hit to the right side; maybe he gets a hit and drives in a run or at least hits a grounder or fly ball that can move the lead runner to 3rd with one out.

Btw: he hit a sacrifice bunt and the run eventually scored... but I'd still rather let that particular batter swing away -- though not if he was a dead pull hitter (which happened later, same situation, when the leadoff man drilled a one-hopper right at the third baseman for an easy double play).

You're right, it's very easy to second guess.  You're also right that a manager has a lot more to consider when making decisions than just what seems obvious to fans.  The fans aren't even aware of some of the things a manager takes into account when making a decision.

We also need to remember that just because a decision resulted in a bad outcome, it doesn't mean that it was the wrong decision.  And vice versa. 

All that said, most dugout decisions have little effect on the outcome of the game.  People tend to give too much credit and too much blame to the manager.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anybody can second guess. I prefer to first guess...

The third guess is always the best and most rewarding.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

4 games under .500, 4.5 back of the last WC spot with 5 teams ahead of them.

If or when the sox miss the playoffs again, should cora be fired at that point?

Hopefully before that point.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The third guess is always the best and most rewarding.

I guess that makes sense.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So then brez get's the axe?

No.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No.

So then fire the team?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, Kimmi said:

All that said, most dugout decisions have little effect on the outcome of the game.  People tend to give too much credit and too much blame to the manager.

It is mind-boggling sometimes when fans blame the manager for not making the roster he's given by the front office perform better. Why can't he just order players to make better contact, throw more strikes, catch more outs, and never get erased on the bases?

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

So then fire the team?

Massive roster changes IMO

[notin]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Nope. It's not his fault the starting 1B and 3B were lost to injury and the rotation became a mess. 

Since 2018, the Sox are 442-431 under him.  Not all of that is because Bregman got hurt.

Whats Cora done to keep his job?   He might be the most mediocre manager in MLB history.  Every year he’s the one constant in another .500-ish season, and every season he gets bailed out by a litany of excuses.  Maybe it’s time something stuck to Teflon Alex…

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Since 2018, the Sox are 442-431 under him.  Not all of that is because Bregman got hurt.

Whats Cora done to keep his job?   He might be the most mediocre manager in MLB history.  Every year he’s the one constant in another .500-ish season, and every season he gets bailed out by a litany of excuses.  Maybe it’s time something stuck to Teflon Alex…

Cora just said on the postgame that they are not getting any better, and the same things keep happening. Says it’s got to be on him. This is 4 years in a row now of bad fundamental baseball, and all these 1 run losses this year may be the most frustrating of the last 4 years.

[vegasbob]

8 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

4 games under .500, 4.5 back of the last WC spot with 5 teams ahead of them.

If or when the sox miss the playoffs again, should cora be fired at that point?

Since I put the chances of making the playoffs at about 3.2% , go ahead and fire Cora now, if that is to be the outcome.   

As many note, Cora doesn't pitch nor hit , and it does appear the analytics dictate a lot of tactics by Boston.  Lastly the training and expectations through the minors system for the Red Sox are flawed.  The young guys are doing what they did to get to the 26 man roster.  They are too stupid to know the difference, and then get rewarded handsomely for being there with almost no production.