What's up with Ceddanne?

[Cameron Tran]

After a solid rookie season in which he finished top 10 among rookies in hits, doubles, RBI and HR, Ceddanne Rafaela has been off to a horrid start at the plate in 2025. Following a strong spring in which he showed much improved plate discipline, Ceddanne is off to a .211/.274/.246 start and has yet to hit a home run. Despite being in the 96th percentile for baserunning runs and the 98th in fielding runs, fans are calling for a change with top prospect Roman Anthony off to a great start in AAA. So what's gone wrong with the player Breslow and Co. trusted enough to hand out an 8 year contract too?

The biggest issue with Ceddanne so far is his batted ball data, where his GB% is 10% above league average, resulting in over half his batted balls being groundballs. This coincides with Ceddanne's inability to lower his chase rate. Despite a respectable walk rate, Ceddanne still sits in the 1st percentile in terms of chase rate and his outside zone swing% is 20% above league average, swinging at over half of the pitches he sees outside the zone. 20% of the pitches he sees are low and out, and Ceddanne has chased that low outside pitch 42% of the time. Those 21 swings have resulted in 1 hard hit ball, 8 batted balls, an average exit velo of 77, an average launch angle of 8, and a 63% GB rate. Even then, Ceddanne has gotten lucky. Of those 8 batted balls, 4 have them have resulted in hits despite a .230 xBA on those batted balls. Ceddanne had the same problem last year, seeing a pitch in that area 24% of the time, chasing it 46% of the time, and whiffing 49% of the time. 

Once again, the chase rate is what is holding Ceddanne back. He has dropped his K% to below league average and his walk rate has gone up 4%, usually a good sign for a young hitter. His hard hit% is up, his barrel% is around the same, but all that is mitigated by his inability to lay off the junk. The biggest worry is that most of these swings are coming early in the count. In 2 strike counts, he is hitting .257/.316/.314. Not great, but not horrible either. To contrast, he's hitting .182/.357/.182 when ahead in the count. 

It's not hard to see a silver lining to this horrid start at the plate, as Ceddanne once again looks like a platinum glove caliber defender at a premium position. But with Roman Anthony having his second 2 HR game of the season a few nights ago, it's hard to justify keeping his bat in the lineup. Ceddanne would be an expensive utility guy, but it appears that that might be his ceiling. 

[moonslav59]

He's the same Ceddanne. The question is, will he have a 90 game good hitting stretch in 2025?

The guy is a great defensive CF'er. He has the 5th best fWAR (+0.2) on the team. He's 5th best in bWAR (+0.4.)

he's not our biggest early season problem.

[vegasbob]

If you want to know what is up with Cedanne, just watch his swings during an AB.  Long looping with a big dip. 

To me, he isn't focused on actually hitting the ball just with taking the huge swing that got him there, got him prepaid .   

But it got him a HR tonight   

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rafaela's listed at 5'10, 165 - but sports teams always exaggerate those dimensions. 

Most small players don't stay buff by throwing bowling balls around all winter, like Mookie Betts.

Fans may just have to accept that Ceddanne has to swing from the heels to have a chance to hit a baseball far. It's really more a testament to his talent that he cranked 15 home runs in the majors like year, and at least 20 in each of his two previous minor league seasons. 

Anyone who makes the big leagues has elite hand-eye coordination to some extent. But all these prospects try to homer their way into promotion, because the longball is a big separator. Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, even Teel, had huge swings last year. 

Now that Grissom is raking, there's another guy knocking on the door. Four doubles in one game is a novelty, but the fact he also hit one out of the ballpark boosts his status -- especially now that he's taking reps as a righthanded-hitting first baseman...

[moonslav59]

LD% 2023-2025

24% Refsndyer

21% Rafaela, Casas & Wong

20% Duran, Abreu, Devers & Yoshida

 

Hard Hit% is just about flipped:

42% Devers

36% Abreu

35% Casas

34% Duran

31% Yoshida

30% Refsnyder & Wong

25% Rafaela

 

 

[notin]

I’m not worried about #9 hitting Rafaela (OPS+ 63) nearly as much as I am leadoff hitting Jarren Duran (OPS+ 81)…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

I’m not worried about #9 hitting Rafaela (OPS+ 63) nearly as much as I am leadoff hitting Jarren Duran (OPS+ 81)…

Duran's start has been pretty bad, but he has a lot of line-outs, IMO, He had several ups and downs over his early career, and seemed to reinvent his stance or approach almost monthly, but I believe he has found the right approach. He also got himself into pretty damn good shape and improved his defense.

In short, I'm not too worries about Duran. I'm more worried about Casas and having two black holes in the line-up (our catchers and CF.)

I'm ready for the Anthony promotion, but understand waiting for that extra control year on a 20 year old is worth the wait. I think we'll trade Refsnyder and play Rafaela vs LHPs, as Abreu sits and then try to give Rafaela as much playing time as a super utility man as possible. He could still get 350-400 PAs and some late inning defensive time over a season.

The way Story and Campbell are playing, and with recent struggles in AAA, Mayer looks like one that waits the longest, barring injury, of course.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran's start has been pretty bad, but he has a lot of line-outs, IMO, He had several ups and downs over his early career, and seemed to reinvent his stance or approach almost monthly, but I believe he has found the right approach. He also got himself into pretty damn good shape and improved his defense.

In short, I'm not too worries about Duran. I'm more worried about Casas and having two black holes in the line-up (our catchers and CF.)

I'm ready for the Anthony promotion, but understand waiting for that extra control year on a 20 year old is worth the wait. I think we'll trade Refsnyder and play Rafaela vs LHPs, as Abreu sits and then try to give Rafaela as much playing time as a super utility man as possible. He could still get 350-400 PAs and some late inning defensive time over a season.

The way Story and Campbell are playing, and with recent struggles in AAA, Mayer looks like one that waits the longest, barring injury, of course.

Casas has been horrendous to start but hitters with a 24% line drive rate and a .222 BABIP don’t stay down forever.  His 24% K rate is his career norm but what’s a bigger concern is his BB% cutting in half…

[notin]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran's start has been pretty bad, but he has a lot of line-outs, IMO, He had several ups and downs over his early career, and seemed to reinvent his stance or approach almost monthly, but I believe he has found the right approach. He also got himself into pretty damn good shape and improved his defense.

In short, I'm not too worries about Duran. I'm more worried about Casas and having two black holes in the line-up (our catchers and CF.)

I'm ready for the Anthony promotion, but understand waiting for that extra control year on a 20 year old is worth the wait. I think we'll trade Refsnyder and play Rafaela vs LHPs, as Abreu sits and then try to give Rafaela as much playing time as a super utility man as possible. He could still get 350-400 PAs and some late inning defensive time over a season.

The way Story and Campbell are playing, and with recent struggles in AAA, Mayer looks like one that waits the longest, barring injury, of course.

Screw the last year of control.  If Anthony is worth it, extend him.  Just because he wants to go Year to tear doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a price…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Screw the last year of control.  If Anthony is worth it, extend him.  Just because he wants to go Year to tear doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a price…

Getting the extra year of control does not preclude an extension. It make it easier to do one, and a little less expensive.

Also, Anthony is DH'ing, now, due to a sore shoulder, so now is not the time to call him up, anyway.

1 minute ago, notin said:

Screw the last year of control.  If Anthony is worth it, extend him.  Just because he wants to go Year to tear doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a price…

 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Getting the extra year of control does not preclude an extension. It make it easier to do one, and a little less expensive.

Also, Anthony is DH'ing, now, due to a sore shoulder, so now is not the time to call him up, anyway.

 

Who would the Sox bench to replace Anthony anyway?

Duran? Not likely.

Rafaela? Why?  He’s not the problem with the offense and his 0.5 bWAR is right there with Campbell’s.

Abreu?  Ummm.. no.

Devers? 
 

I think it’s going to take an injury to get Anthony up now anyway.  Or a trade, but I doubt we see one of those for a while (barring inconsequential minor leaguer trades)…

[Hitch]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Who would the Sox bench to replace Anthony anyway?

Duran? Not likely.

Rafaela? Why?  He’s not the problem with the offense and his 0.5 bWAR is right there with Campbell’s.

Abreu?  Ummm.. no.

Devers? 
 

I think it’s going to take an injury to get Anthony up now anyway.  Or a trade, but I doubt we see one of those for a while (barring inconsequential minor leaguer trades)…

This feels spot on.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Who would the Sox bench to replace Anthony anyway?

Duran? Not likely.

Rafaela? Why?  He’s not the problem with the offense and his 0.5 bWAR is right there with Campbell’s.

Abreu?  Ummm.. no.

Devers? 
 

I think it’s going to take an injury to get Anthony up now anyway.  Or a trade, but I doubt we see one of those for a while (barring inconsequential minor leaguer trades)…

I've said what I'd do, but will again:

Vs RHP: Anthony LF, Duran CF, Abreu RF

Vs LHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Anthony RF

Rafaela can be the #1 back-up at SS, 2B and maybe 3B. He can PR and come in as a defensive replacement, late in games. He will get enough chances to be a meaningful player with the chance to increase playing time, if he shows he can improve his offense.

I like Rafaela, a lot. This is not about disliking his plus input as a player. It's about thinking Anthony can do much more. Anthony is a decent defender and should hit much better than Rafaela and maybe hit better than all our FT OF'ers.

[notin]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've said what I'd do, but will again:

Vs RHP: Anthony LF, Duran CF, Abreu RF

Vs LHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Anthony RF

Rafaela can be the #1 back-up at SS, 2B and maybe 3B. He can PR and come in as a defensive replacement, late in games. He will get enough chances to be a meaningful player with the chance to increase playing time, if he shows he can improve his offense.

I like Rafaela, a lot. This is not about disliking his plus input as a player. It's about thinking Anthony can do much more. Anthony is a decent defender and should hit much better than Rafaela and maybe hit better than all our FT OF'ers.

Yeah but I’m not as into platooning as you, and (almost?) NEVER believe in a platooning solution where players change position…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Yeah but I’m not as into platooning as you, and (almost?) NEVER believe in a platooning solution where players change position…

It's a better defensive OF than the one w Refsnyder in RF. It's not adding a platoon, as I'm just replacing Ref with Raf in the current platoon.

 

[jad]

I recall what they said of Ellsbury when he was tearing up the minors:   "We're not bringing that guy up to sit on the bench!"

[moonslav59]

It doesn't help a young player's growth and improvement riding the bench.

That being said, there is an argument for having the best possible 26 players on the ML roster. Sort out who plays when and where on the go.

[Hugh2]

The Sox will not be able to hold Anthony down in AAA if he keeps this up, not all year. 

But can they for a little while? The can, and they probably will. 

He's a little sore now anyways, so they will have the excuse of giving him some extra time to return to the field and get his defense in order.  And this gives more time at the MLB level to see how things will shake out. 

Eventually someone is going to have to be traded. Duran and Abreu are not bench bats, and the Sox didn't pay Rafaela $50 million dollars to be a bench bat.  There was a lot of talk of Campbell ending up in left field. If two out of the three of Bregman doesn't opt out/Story stays healthy and plays well all year/Grissom mashes and becomes who we thought he was all happen the Sox have a similar conundrum in the infield with Mayer (although they probably have a little bit more time here). 

All this, and we haven't even considered Yoshida yet. 

Gun to my head, they can move Rafaela to a super utility role and call up Anthony.  Feels weird, because you expect Duran to slide into CF where he was elite last year, but this year not so much in LF which should be much easier to play.  Which again.....time to shake things out. 

Even if Anthony continues to do nothing but mash, I can see him staying down in AAA for at least another month. 

 

EDIT: how long until #promoteRoman becomes a battle cry in Boston?

We are on the cusp of the Roman Empire. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

The Sox will not be able to hold Anthony down in AAA if he keeps this up, not all year. 

But can they for a little while? The can, and they probably will. 

He's a little sore now anyways, so they will have the excuse of giving him some extra time to return to the field and get his defense in order.  And this gives more time at the MLB level to see how things will shake out. 

Eventually someone is going to have to be traded. Duran and Abreu are not bench bats, and the Sox didn't pay Rafaela $50 million dollars to be a bench bat.  There was a lot of talk of Campbell ending up in left field. If two out of the three of Bregman doesn't opt out/Story stays healthy and plays well all year/Grissom mashes and becomes who we thought he was all happen the Sox have a similar conundrum in the infield with Mayer (although they probably have a little bit more time here). 

All this, and we haven't even considered Yoshida yet. 

Gun to my head, they can move Rafaela to a super utility role and call up Anthony.  Feels weird, because you expect Duran to slide into CF where he was elite last year, but this year not so much in LF which should be much easier to play.  Which again.....time to shake things out. 

Even if Anthony continues to do nothing but mash, I can see him staying down in AAA for at least another month. 

 

EDIT: how long until #promoteRoman becomes a battle cry in Boston?

We are on the cusp of the Roman Empire. 

I agree, totally.

Except, we have been "considering" Yoshida for months (and years.) There is no fit for him, as long as Devers is the DH and we have 4-5 capable OF'ers, including Anthony.

He stays in AAA as DH and deep OF insurance or gets traded to get some minor salary relief, as we'd pitch in $12-14M a year, unless we add a plus player to the deal. (This assumes we get nothing back.)

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, totally.

Except, we have been "considering" Yoshida for months (and years.) There is no fit for him, as long as Devers is the DH and we have 4-5 capable OF'ers, including Anthony.

He stays in AAA as DH and deep OF insurance or gets traded to get some minor salary relief, as we'd pitch in $12-14M a year, unless we add a plus player to the deal. (This assumes we get nothing back.)

DFA'ng Yoshida and assigning him to AAA is a consideration if someone is considering doing it. 

[Old Red]

On 4/19/2025 at 12:34 PM, moonslav59 said:

I've said what I'd do, but will again:

Vs RHP: Anthony LF, Duran CF, Abreu RF

Vs LHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Anthony RF

Rafaela can be the #1 back-up at SS, 2B and maybe 3B. He can PR and come in as a defensive replacement, late in games. He will get enough chances to be a meaningful player with the chance to increase playing time, if he shows he can improve his offense.

I like Rafaela, a lot. This is not about disliking his plus input as a player. It's about thinking Anthony can do much more. Anthony is a decent defender and should hit much better than Rafaela and maybe hit better than all our FT OF'ers.

Yes we know that you like playing musical chairs, and the more chairs the better, which helps no player get better on D IMO.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

DFA'ng Yoshida and assigning him to AAA is a consideration if someone is considering doing it. 

They are options.

I do not think we DFA him, as someone would likely take him for $2-5M a year.

I do think consideration is being given to keeping him in AAA as he rehabs and starts to show he can hit. He has options, so there is no limit to rehab timing.

You, yourself have said Yoshida will not play OF, so what is your idea on where he plays?

What options am I missing?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Yes we know that you like playing musical chairs, and the more chairs the better, which helps no player get better on D IMO.

Moving around the OF is no big deal, and it happens every year, including 2024. Yes, players can still improve.

If you'd prefer playing Refsnyder in RF vs LHPs, or just play Rafaela there to avoid musical chairs, then you are advocating putting an inferior defense than is needed on the field. 

You are quick to criticize suggested solutions, but don't offer yours.

2024 OF Play by games

Duran 105 CF & 83 LF

O'Neill 70 LF &  50 RF

Abreu 125 RF & 5 LF & 1 CF

Rafaela 87 CF (82 SS & 4 2B)

Refsnyder 46 LF & 37 RF

I'm not suggesting anything radically different than what has been going on for years.

 

 

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Moving around the OF is no big deal, and it happens every year, including 2024. Yes, players can still improve.

If you'd prefer playing Refsnyder in RF vs LHPs, or just play Rafaela there to avoid musical chairs, then you are advocating putting an inferior defense than is needed on the field. 

You are quick to criticize suggested solutions, but don't offer yours.

2024 OF Play by games

Duran 105 CF & 83 LF

O'Neill 70 LF &  50 RF

Abreu 125 RF & 5 LF & 1 CF

Rafaela 87 CF (82 SS & 4 2B)

Refsnyder 46 LF & 37 RF

I'm not suggesting anything radically different than what has been going on for years.

 

 

I think the way it looks is that Cora prefers Ref Man plays RF even in Fenway when he plays for Abreu. Duran ONLY played CF as much as he did last year, because RAF Man was playing SS. Didn’t Abreu miss some playing time last year also, which exaggerated the movement of the other OF? 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think the way it looks is that Cora prefers Ref Man plays RF even in Fenway when he plays for Abreu. Duran ONLY played CF as much as he did last year, because RAF Man was playing SS. Didn’t Abreu miss some playing time last year also, which exaggerated the movement of the other OF? 

Of course there is always a reason for musical chairs.

I see why Cora does not want to play Ref in LF, even if it's a better defensive alignment, and he even stopped playing Campbell in LF, out of comfort for him. I'm just saying what I'd do, and I'm not mad at Cora for doing what he does.

He is platooning Abreu- home and away, something you said he shouldn't do, so no big deal, right?

He also moved O'Neill around the OF, last year, much like I suggested we do with Ref or Raf. RF vs LHPs and LF vs RHPs. Musical chairs that had nothing to do with RAF playing SS. It happened, whether you want to believe it or not. It was what was best for the team.

[Kimmi]

Leave Ceddanne alone in the 9-hole.  He is not the problem.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Leave Cedanne alone in the 9-hole.  He is not the problem.

Leave him in everyday, and let him get consistent AB.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Kimmi said:

 

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Leave him in everyday, and let him get consistent AB.

He played in more games and had more ABs than any other Sox player, last year, except Duran. He's had about as many ABs as possible ("consistent") as it can be since he started playing FT in AUG 2023.

I'm not saying more time can't work, or that he is the weakest link on the team, but CF seems like one area we can improve on without making any trades, and Ceddanne can still find a lot of playing time.

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Leave Ceddanne alone in the 9-hole.  He is not the problem.

It's about getting better. You can get better without fixing  a "problem."

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's about getting better. You can get better without fixing  a "problem."

Right now the top of the order needs to get better. Raffy only has an RBI in 1 game in his last 13, and Duran has an OBP of 296. Yes I know he has hit the ball hard at times, but that doesn’t show up on the most important scoreboard.