Red Sox 2025 Starting Rotation

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I wouldn't hate Criswell in the swing man/long man get us 2 innings a few times a few role.  I think the Sox are back to putting Whitlock in that role and having two guys who could be shut down there would be awesome.  I think he could be better in shorter bursts. 

Criswell has a career FIP of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.45.  He's a replacement level pitcher.  He had a few good outings last year.  But he's not good.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Criswell did OK last year but I wouldn't count on him for much more.  He's just not very good (by MLB standards).

I think Cora and Brez agree, but he did a fine job as a SP'er, last year. (His numbers look worse due to his pen implosions.)

Criswell started 18 games for the Sox in '24 (5th most.)

His 3.49 ERA was second only to Houck. It was 70 above #3 Pivetta and almost 90 above #4 Crawford's ERA.

Maybe he had some luck, but still...

WHIP 1.235 is decent (4th out of our top 5- ahead of Bello)

OPS Against:

.617 Houck

.702 Crawford

.724 Bello

.726 Criswell

.726 Pivetta

2025's OPSA: .439 Crochet, .614 Fitts (IL) .695 Buehler, .707 Dobbins, .836 Newcomb, .902 Houck, .939 Bello

I'm not thinking those 2024 numbers are repeatable, but he'd be starting on several other teams, right now.

 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Criswell has a career FIP of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.45.  He's a replacement level pitcher.  He had a few good outings last year.  But he's not good.

4.44 is 4/5 material

2024 as SP only:

FIP: 3.32 Houck, 4.07 Pivetta, 4.15 Criswell, 4.19 Bello, 4.65 Crawford

To be fair, Criswell was last in xFIP at 4.43 and SIERA at 4.45

ERA-

73 Houck

96 Criswell

97 Pivetta

102 Crawford

105 Bello

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Cora and Brez agree, but he did a fine job as a SP'er, last year. (His numbers look worse due to his pen implosions.)

Criswell started 18 games for the Sox in '24 (5th most.)

His 3.49 ERA was second only to Houck. It was 70 above #3 Pivetta and almost 90 above #4 Crawford's ERA.

Maybe he had some luck, but still...

WHIP 1.235 is decent (4th out of our top 5- ahead of Bello)

OPS Against:

.617 Houck

.702 Crawford

.724 Bello

.726 Criswell

.726 Pivetta

2025's OPSA: .439 Crochet, .614 Fitts (IL) .695 Buehler, .707 Dobbins, .836 Newcomb, .902 Houck, .939 Bello

I'm not thinking those 2024 numbers are repeatable, but he'd be starting on several other teams, right now.

 

His WHIP last year was 1.35.

Another team might give him a shot at starting, but that doesn't mean much.

[Hugh2]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Criswell has a career FIP of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.45.  He's a replacement level pitcher.  He had a few good outings last year.  But he's not good.

I immediately looked up his stats, and he's better as a starter than a reliever, which does not make sense, so that blows my post out of the water but it is a small sample size and I'd still like to see him in that role.  Maybe still in Woo for now but I think he's a good depth option who should get another look at some point. 

Not like he should be given a ton of rope though. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Criswell has a career FIP of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.45.  He's a replacement level pitcher.  He had a few good outings last year.  But he's not good.

Early on in 2024, he had some strong outing, but really fell off down the stretch. He looked really rough this year. I'd rather go with higher upside guys than Criswell who is turning 29 this year and loses his usefulness once his options are gone. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

His WHIP last year was 1.35.

Another team might give him a shot at starting, but that doesn't mean much.

1.35 ranked 118th out of the top 150 SP'ers by IP.

That is bottom of the 4th starter tier. He was a 4/5, last year- better than 30 #5's.

All you gotta do is be better than a #5 to start in MLB. When you are better than 32 SP'ers out of 150, you deserve to star, somewhere, but again, that is assuming he would repeat 2024's numbers, which I doubt is likely. I'm just going by the numbers, including the ones you used.

His 4.15 FIP ranked 88th- good enough to be a #3 tier SP'er. His career 4.45 FIP would have placed him about 110 in 2014- again a #4.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I immediately looked up his stats, and he's better as a starter than a reliever, which does not make sense, so that blows my post out of the water but it is a small sample size and I'd still like to see him in that role.  Maybe still in Woo for now but I think he's a good depth option who should get another look at some point. 

Not like he should be given a ton of rope though. 

I'm not sure I can even agree with the starter vs reliever thing because of how small his sample is. He got blown up in one relief appearance and it all gets skewed. 

[Nick]

Maybe he can become another trading piece with a team in dire need of a starter due to injuries.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Early on in 2024, he had some strong outing, but really fell off down the stretch. He looked really rough this year. I'd rather go with higher upside guys than Criswell who is turning 29 this year and loses his usefulness once his options are gone. 

He went on the IL in mid June. He had a 3.70 FIP, at that time. It was 4.64 afterwards, much in relief.

His first start after coming off the IL really bumped his numbers: 6 IP, 9H, 6 ER , 2BB. He had another big meltdown in releif in mid August (3.1 IP w 9 hits, 6 ER and 4 BB)

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

1.35 ranked 118th out of the top 150 SP'ers by IP.

That is bottom of the 4th starter tier. He was a 4/5, last year- better than 30 #5's.

All you gotta do is be better than a #5 to start in MLB. When you are better than 32 SP'ers out of 150, you deserve to star, somewhere, but again, that is assuming he would repeat 2024's numbers, which I doubt is likely. I'm just going by the numbers, including the ones you used.

His 4.15 FIP ranked 88th- good enough to be a #3 tier SP'er. His career 4.45 FIP would have placed him about 110 in 2014- again a #4.

It was also just an 85 inning sample as a starter.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It was also just an 85 inning sample as a starter.

Yes, and that about the cutoff to get a sample size of 150 SP'er (30 teams x 5 pitchers=150.)

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure I can even agree with the starter vs reliever thing because of how small his sample is. He got blown up in one relief appearance and it all gets skewed. 

I was looking at his career stats, which is still small and why I want to see him get more of a chance in that role. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I was looking at his career stats, which is still small and why I want to see him get more of a chance in that role. 

I'm not sure Criswell is for real, as a SP'er, but most pitchers with a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP after their first 20 starts would be given a further look in that role.

.737 OPS Against (.884 in releif)

86 tOPS+ (122 as RP)

2.84 K/BB (1.74 as RP)

[notin]

12 hours ago, Nick said:

Maybe he can become another trading piece with a team in dire need of a starter due to injuries.

Most teams already have Criswell or two, and thats why they need a starter…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Most teams already have Criswell or two, and thats why they need a starter…

There is a lot of turnover at the 4/5 slots in MLB.

That's on reason you have to set the IP level to 80-85 to get to the 150 SP'er sample size.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

There is a lot of turnover at the 4/5 slots in MLB.

That's on reason you have to set the IP level to 80-85 to get to the 150 SP'er sample size.

But Criswell isnt the answer to any team’s search for pitching.  Last year, he was one of the Sox top 5 SP, and they still only trotted him out 14 times.

Every team already has at least one Criswell, and very few if any are looking for another…

[Nick]

Should this be the 4 that we build the starting staff around based on age? Youngest to the oldest.

26 R Fitts (team controlled 6 years)

26 H Dobbins (team controlled 6 years)

26 G Crochet (team controlled 7 years)

26 B Bello (team controlled 6 years)

The you have

29 P Sandoval

29 T Houck

29 K Crawford

31 W Buehler

31 L Giolito

 

[Larry Cook]

Rotation depth has been severely tested early. 
current rotation as follows; 

1.) crochet - ace. 
2.) giolita - dumpster fire. 
3.) Houk - dumpster fire. 
4.) bello - decent to above average. 
5.) dobbins - rookie has impressed. 
 

reinforcements. 
buehler expected back by the end of the month. Ideally giolita gets sent to the bullpen and dobbins stays in the rotation. Newcomb gets sent to Worcester. 
 

fitts is due back by the end of the month. Ideally Fitts goes to the bullpen, at least until houck pitches his way out of the rotation! 

[mvp 78]

On 5/10/2025 at 7:30 PM, Nick said:

Should this be the 4 that we build the starting staff around based on age? Youngest to the oldest.

26 R Fitts (team controlled 6 years)

26 H Dobbins (team controlled 6 years)

26 G Crochet (team controlled 7 years)

26 B Bello (team controlled 6 years)

I think it's an ok group of 4 pitchers. I'm not sure what Dobbins is just yet. Possibly just a backend guy. Fitts still needs to come back from injury before we can really count on him. 

Crochet is a certified #1.

Bello can be a #3. 

Guys projected to appear in 2026 per Sox Prospects: Perales, Early, Mullins, Monegro (Early probably has the best chance to start)

Guys projected to appear in 2027 per Sox Prospects: Tolle, Valera, Clarke, Paez (this group is far more interesting than the '26 group)

The rotation in 2028 (not THAT far away) could be:

Crochet

Bello

Valera

Clarke

Early

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The rotation in 2028 (not THAT far away) could be:

Crochet

Bello

Valera

Clarke

Early

Whoa... you know it's promising when prospects projected for the top of the rotation are stuck in the middle of the rotation.

Those starters as a unit might turn out so good that the Red Sox may promote Mayer and Anthony by then.

[Larry Cook]

Can we send houck to Worcester as per the CBA??? 

[Duran Is The Man]

34 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Can we send houck to Worcester as per the CBA??? 

launch him to the moon for all i care.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Can we send houck to Worcester as per the CBA??? 

He has 2 options left, so why not?

I won't be surprised if he's put on the IL, tomorrow. Something is not right.

[Jasonbay44]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He has 2 options left, so why not?

I won't be surprised if he's put on the IL, tomorrow. Something is not right.

Even if it’s a phantom IL trip, just so it: he’s killing the team right now 

[vegasbob]

Looking forward , how long do you think Buehler's shoulder will hold up after recycling into the rotation ?   If it is sore in May, It's going to be sore in June, July, August and September. 

I just don't think there will be much effective mileage obtained from Walker over the season.  Maybe 15 total starts. Perhaps he will have to go into the BP.

[mvp 78]

In the aftermath of the game, manager Álex Cora wouldn’t commit to Houck getting another start. “We’ll talk about it, of course,” Cora said, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. “I’ve got to take a look at the video and we’ve got to see what we’re gonna do. Right now, it’s too fresh. It’s too quick. We have to take a look at it and see if it’s mechanical, usage, or where we’re at.”

[notin]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In the aftermath of the game, manager Álex Cora wouldn’t commit to Houck getting another start. “We’ll talk about it, of course,” Cora said, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. “I’ve got to take a look at the video and we’ve got to see what we’re gonna do. Right now, it’s too fresh. It’s too quick. We have to take a look at it and see if it’s mechanical, usage, or where we’re at.”

Even if he gets one, at least they’re talking about it.  It would be much more concerning if they weren’t…

[moonslav59]

They should at least think about skipping a Houck start.

I'm not one to bail on SSS, but this is not the same guy.

[Larry Cook]

Rotation is: 

1.) crochet 

2.) giolita 

3.) bello 

4.) dobbins 

5.) Criswell 

 

ouch!!!! My 87 win prediction seems like a reach at this point