Red Sox 2025 Starting Rotation

[drewski6]

I like this Gio talk, I think myself (dont want to speak for others but dont think Im alone) werent interested enough in Pivetta.  Something about hes been here and we've seen his ups/downs and the fact that the team didnt go particularly far when he was here, so we wanted an infusion of new talent.  ANd those sentiments are natural, but I think it caused me personally to underrate his value.

The past is the past.  Gios lost year is behind us, like Pivettas pre-breakout mediocrity (forgive me for using the term breakout, which might not be 100% deserved, but I do feel like pivetta went from mediocre (average #4) to solid (good #3) at some point within last 2-3 years.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

What near ready prospects? I guess pitchers? Are the Sox WS contenders in '26 or '27? Is that what the trade is being made for? 

The sox may be contenders in 25 on the back of Crochet.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The sox may be contenders in 25 on the back of Crochet.

Contenders for a WC spot, sure. For the WS, not a chance even if they traded for Joe Ryan. 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Contenders for a WC spot, sure. For the WS, not a chance even if they traded for Joe Ryan. 

It will depend a lot on the days-off schedule.  But playoffs are less about pitching depth, its about your best pitcher.  Crochet will start 3/7 games and come out of the pen in a fourth.

[drewski6]

Its possible that every team in the playoffs besides us has their top 3 pitchers on the IL.  Dodgers did last year, Yankees do already this year.  If Crochet is still standing (knock on wood) , I honestly believe that Crochet + nobody else may be the best pitching staff in the playoffs.

One way to get better is to have all the competition get hurt.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

It will depend a lot on the days-off schedule.  But playoffs are less about pitching depth, its about your best pitcher.  Crochet will start 3/7 games and come out of the pen in a fourth.

His career high is 146 IP. He's already thrown 120 on 7/9. Are you confident he'll be able to go 3 of 7 in October? I'm not. 

[Soxlover]

I’ll repeat myself: I don’t want to overpay for a good SP rental.

Longer term pitchers are more often traded in the winter- maybe at a lower cost, as well.

this is one reason to sell for prospects that could help us trade for a more controlled and better SP in December.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I like this Gio talk, I think myself (dont want to speak for others but dont think Im alone) werent interested enough in Pivetta.  Something about hes been here and we've seen his ups/downs and the fact that the team didnt go particularly far when he was here, so we wanted an infusion of new talent.  ANd those sentiments are natural, but I think it caused me personally to underrate his value.

The past is the past.  Gios lost year is behind us, like Pivettas pre-breakout mediocrity (forgive me for using the term breakout, which might not be 100% deserved, but I do feel like pivetta went from mediocre (average #4) to solid (good #3) at some point within last 2-3 years.

Pivetta's MLB career ERA is 4.60.  In 4 seasons with the Sox his ERA's were 4.53,k 4.56, 4.04, and 4.14.  Credit to the Padres for signing him--this year his ERA is 3.07--but I find it hard to fault the Sox.  

You're dead right about Giolito, who to me was a big joke until he got going this season.  

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

It will depend a lot on the days-off schedule.  But playoffs are less about pitching depth, its about your best pitcher.  Crochet will start 3/7 games and come out of the pen in a fourth.

I think history shows you need at least 2 starters performing well in the playoffs.  Just going back 2 years, in 2023 the Rangers had Eovaldi and Montgomery, in 2024 the Dodgers had Yamamoto, Buehler and Flaherty.  

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Maxbialystock said:

Pivetta's MLB career ERA is 4.60.  In 4 seasons with the Sox his ERA's were 4.53,k 4.56, 4.04, and 4.14.  Credit to the Padres for signing him--this year his ERA is 3.07--but I find it hard to fault the Sox.  

What I have noticed is that there has been very little complaining about letting Pivetta walk.  That's because they invested heavily in Crochet, and also shelled out for Buehler.  Plus the extension for Bello.  People understand you can only spend so much. 

It's a sign of how sophisticated Sox fans are.  🙃

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The sox may be contenders in 25 on the back of Crochet.

We all like Crochet a ton, but I think you're overstating his value.  He is one of 13 pitchers, doesn't hit, and pitches every 5th game.  The Sox have won 11 of the games he has pitched in and 48 overall.  

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

We all like Crochet a ton, but I think you're overstating his value.  He is one of 13 pitchers, doesn't hit, and pitches every 5th game.  The Sox have won 11 of the games he has pitched in and 48 overall.  

drewski does have a point that in the playoffs an 'ace' has magnified importance because there are more off days and they might pitch 1/3 of the games.

Example: in 2023 Texas played 17 playoff games and Eovaldi started 6 of them.

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Contenders for a WC spot, sure. For the WS, not a chance even if they traded for Joe Ryan. 

Unlikely maybe.

But if 84 win AZ can sneak into the World Series with Zac Gallen, Merril Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt and no one else, anything is possible.  It’s all about getting hot at the right time…

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What I have noticed is that there has been very little complaining about letting Pivetta walk.  That's because they invested heavily in Crochet, and also shelled out for Buehler.  Plus the extension for Bello.  People understand you can only spend so much. 

It's a sign of how sophisticated Sox fans are.  🙃

I'd rather have Pivetta than Buehler. IDK. I was never sold on the idea that Buehler was back because of a 10 IP sample from the playoffs. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Unlikely maybe.

But if 84 win AZ can sneak into the World Series with Zac Gallen, Merril Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt and no one else, anything is possible.  It’s all about getting hot at the right time…

AZ was also 4th in DRS and 2nd in OAA as a team in '23. To me, this team just isn't built for it. You can try to make an argument than every team has a chance, but I don't really believe. 

[mvp 78]

😔

[Maxbialystock]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What I have noticed is that there has been very little complaining about letting Pivetta walk.  That's because they invested heavily in Crochet, and also shelled out for Buehler.  Plus the extension for Bello.  People understand you can only spend so much. 

It's a sign of how sophisticated Sox fans are.  🙃

I'm one of the unsophisticates.  All I know is the Sox payroll this season is 12th in MLB whereas formerly (2018 and 2019) it was 1st.  

On the other hand, it's hard to complain about acquisitions Crochet, Chapman, Bregman, and Narvaez.  Plus, now, Giolito, Dobbins, and maybe, possibly Buehler.  Plus Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony being brought up from Worcester.  Plus Gonzalez.  

Some real tests are right around the corner with the Rays, @ Cubs, @ Phillies, and Dodgers.  

[Maxbialystock]

44 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

drewski does have a point that in the playoffs an 'ace' has magnified importance because there are more off days and they might pitch 1/3 of the games.

Example: in 2023 Texas played 17 playoff games and Eovaldi started 6 of them.

Absolutely, positively in the playoffs.  Just ask the Dodgers who finally beat the Yankees in the 1955 WS with Johnny Podres starting and winning 2 games.  In the regular season Podres had been 9-10.  He was 23.   Later Sandy Koufax was big.  So was Bob Gibson for the Cardinals.  

[Maxbialystock]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

AZ was also 4th in DRS and 2nd in OAA as a team in '23. To me, this team just isn't built for it. You can try to make an argument than every team has a chance, but I don't really believe. 

I agree.  But this fan will be delighted if these Sox make the postseason.  

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm one of the unsophisticates.  All I know is the Sox payroll this season is 12th in MLB whereas formerly (2018 and 2019) it was 1st.  

On the other hand, it's hard to complain about acquisitions Crochet, Chapman, Bregman, and Narvaez.  Plus, now, Giolito, Dobbins, and maybe, possibly Buehler.  Plus Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony being brought up from Worcester.  Plus Gonzalez.  

Some real tests are right around the corner with the Rays, @ Cubs, @ Phillies, and Dodgers.  

Dobbins was drafted in 2021. Is he considered an acquisition? I'd consider him a success of the pitching program under Justin Willard. 

[Maxbialystock]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather have Pivetta than Buehler. IDK. I was never sold on the idea that Buehler was back because of a 10 IP sample from the playoffs. 

So would we all.  But were you saying that before Pivetta left and after Buehler was signed?  

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Absolutely, positively in the playoffs.  Just ask the Dodgers who finally beat the Yankees in the 1955 WS with Johnny Podres starting and winning 2 games.  In the regular season Podres had been 9-10.  He was 23.   Later Sandy Koufax was big.  So was Bob Gibson for the Cardinals.  

The Dodgers won 98 games in '55. I don't think the Sox are going to replicate that. 

[Maxbialystock]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Dobbins was drafted in 2021. Is he considered an acquisition? I'd consider him a success of the pitching program under Justin Willard. 

My bad.  Good point about the pitching program.  Historically, the Sox have relied heavily on acquiring starters from other teams.  

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

So would we all.  But were you saying that before Pivetta left and after Buehler was signed?  

Yes, I didn't want Buehler signed. I believe notin was a big Buehler guy. 

[Maxbialystock]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The Dodgers won 98 games in '55. I don't think the Sox are going to replicate that. 

Of course not.  Those 98 games were won in a 154 game season.  I'm just agreeing one pitcher can make a huge difference in the playoffs.  

[Maxbialystock]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, I didn't want Buehler signed. I believe notin was a big Buehler guy. 

Buehler was never on my radar screen.  But I remember Pivetta well and didn't mind his departure.  

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

His career high is 146 IP. He's already thrown 120 on 7/9. Are you confident he'll be able to go 3 of 7 in October? I'm not. 

Im not counting it out.  And hes closing the other 4

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

We all like Crochet a ton, but I think you're overstating his value.  He is one of 13 pitchers, doesn't hit, and pitches every 5th game.  The Sox have won 11 of the games he has pitched in and 48 overall.  

I know its been a while since we were in the playoffs, but....

sorry for the snark.  Crochet will pitch games 1,4,7 in world series and maybe even make a bp appearance as well.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

drewski does have a point that in the playoffs an 'ace' has magnified importance because there are more off days and they might pitch 1/3 of the games.

Example: in 2023 Texas played 17 playoff games and Eovaldi started 6 of them.

Exactly.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

AZ was also 4th in DRS and 2nd in OAA as a team in '23. To me, this team just isn't built for it. You can try to make an argument than every team has a chance, but I don't really believe. 

Yeah, fine, but dont act like Im stretching/reaching or just making a general optimistic/rosy outlook without anything else.

If Crochet is healthy AND we make the playoffs, we are dangerous.  He is the best pitcher in the AL, and the second best one is out for the year.  Yes, he will start every third game.

NOw if you dont think he'll end the year healthy, fine.  But Im saying we ARE better build for the playoffs than the reg season. Because rotations shorten.  We're top heavy.