A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[dgalehouse]

I guess the ever-changing fangraphs odds on the Sox making the playoffs will be going down once again.  This could be of interest to any of the folks who actually care about nonsense like fangraphs projections and probabilities. 

[Nick]

Moon oh anyone. Who needs to be protected on our 40 man roster?

I am guessing its getting crowded.

[notin]

47 minutes ago, Nick said:

Moon oh anyone. Who needs to be protected on our 40 man roster?

I am guessing its getting crowded.

There are some Fungibles (Eaton, Sogard, possibly Grissom) that can be trimmed if necessary.  Moving Hunter Dobbins to the 60 day IL will be the first move made to clear space when it’s needed…

[Larry Cook]

Pittsburgh has lost a ton over the past 10 days!!!  Time for bres-slow to make them an offer for skenes that they cannot refuse!!!!  
 

[harmony]

6 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

I guess the ever-changing fangraphs odds on the Sox making the playoffs will be going down once again.  This could be of interest to any of the folks who actually care about nonsense like fangraphs projections and probabilities. 

Those who understand probabilities exploit those who don't.

[dgalehouse]

6 minutes ago, harmony said:

Those who understand probabilities exploit those who don't.

When fangraphs changes the odds they are telling you that they were wrong before , so now you should believe them this time.  They really have no idea what is going to happen. 

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

When fangraphs changes the odds they are telling you that they were wrong before , so now you should believe them this time.  They really have no idea what is going to happen. 

You can say the same about all projections and predictions. 

I don't pay much attention to them either.

[harmony]

12 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

When fangraphs changes the odds they are telling you that they were wrong before , so now you should believe them this time.  They really have no idea what is going to happen. 

Odds that never change would be odd indeed.

FanGraphs projects only the probability of an outcome. Is a team with a 7-2 record more likely to finish with an 8-2 record than a team with a 4-2 record? Have the intervening three wins changed the probability of achieving an 8-2 record?

[dgalehouse]

Nobody who knows baseball would have said the Red Sox had something like a 15% chance of making the playoffs earlier in the season. They are playing around with numbers and projections, but they know little to nothing about baseball. But I will give them credit. They are making money and they have a lot of people fooled . 

[moonslav59]

Sox ASB OPS

.946 Romy (28 XBHs in just 141 ABs)

.926 Bregman (.380 OBP)

.844 Refsnyder 

.822 Abreu (18 HRs is more than Devers)

.797 Rafaela (14 HR 3rd and 13 SB 3rd)

.786 Narvaez (steady all year)

.777 Anthony (had bad luck, early)

.749 Duran (43 XBHs is 15th in MLB and coming on)

.730 Toro (slumping)

.715 Story (16 SB tied w Duran, but w no CS)

.680 Mayer (coming on strong)

.664 Campbell (may get another look)

.505 DHam (May not get another look)

Splits 2025

v R

.894 Bregman, .861 Anthony, .844 Duran, ,842 Abreu

.786 Rafaela, .781 Toro, ,747 Mayer, .738 Narvaez, .793 Story

.694 Romy, .659 KC, .650 Refsnyder

.499 DHam

vs L

1.201 Romy, 1.019 Bregman, .933 Refsnyder, .902 Narvaez

.822 Rafaela

.748 Story, .703 Abreu

.675 KC, .609 Toro, .606 Anthony

.564 Duran, .558 DHam

.417 Mayer

Maybe, it's time to let Abreu face more LHPs, but we have a very crowded OF, and nobody deserving or less playing time. Ref to DH v L, helps, but we have 4 guys deserving FT play.

[moonslav59]

As well as we are playing, and despite the warnings of don't mess with a good thing, I still think the logjam at OF and DH needs to be addressed in July.

As much as I want Mayer to play FT, I'm okay with a Romy-Mayer platoon at 2B, but I don't want Toro at 1B v L, so Mayer should be our FT 2B to finish this season. (He can play 3B, when Bregman rests.)

I'd prefer to have Duran or Anthony DH over Yoshida, but that seems a waste of value. Ref can DH v L, so that frees up some room for Anthony in the OF. The Yohida at DH question is still near front and center. If he plays vs all RHPs, then one of our 4 OF'ers must sit. (Abreu or Duran vs LHPs does not bother me, but who sits when we face a right hander? That's about 70% of the games.

I can't see trading any of them, but clearly one has more value to another team, and we have needs elsewhere. That is the foundation of a trade waiting to happen.

Duran and Abreu are mentioned the most, and the way Rafaela is playing, trading him would seem like a kick in the you know what. Anthony might be on the top of the avoid trading list.

Brez has a very tough choice to make- maybe choices.

[Maxbialystock]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As well as we are playing, and despite the warnings of don't mess with a good thing, I still think the logjam at OF and DH needs to be addressed in July.

As much as I want Mayer to play FT, I'm okay with a Romy-Mayer platoon at 2B, but I don't want Toro at 1B v L, so Mayer should be our FT 2B to finish this season. (He can play 3B, when Bregman rests.)

I'd prefer to have Duran or Anthony DH over Yoshida, but that seems a waste of value. Ref can DH v L, so that frees up some room for Anthony in the OF. The Yohida at DH question is still near front and center. If he plays vs all RHPs, then one of our 4 OF'ers must sit. (Abreu or Duran vs LHPs does not bother me, but who sits when we face a right hander? That's about 70% of the games.

I can't see trading any of them, but clearly one has more value to another team, and we have needs elsewhere. That is the foundation of a trade waiting to happen.

Duran and Abreu are mentioned the most, and the way Rafaela is playing, trading him would seem like a kick in the you know what. Anthony might be on the top of the avoid trading list.

Brez has a very tough choice to make- maybe choices.

Well reasoned.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Getting right down to it: Boston has had winning records at the All-Star Break in every season this decade -- and then had miserable second halves (except '21, when the Sox still had a worse record than the first half).

Red Sox Record @ All-Star Break

'21 55-36... post Break: 37 more wins; finish 2nd

'22 48-45... post Break: 30 more wins; finish LAST

'23 48-43... post Break: 30 more wins; finish LAST 

'24 53-43... post Break: 28 more wins, finish 3rd

'25 53-45 -- WHAT CAN BRESLOW DO TO CHANGE THIS SECOND HALF CULTURE?

It all comes down to pitching, and fragile starting rotations that invariably lead to bullpen burnout. Can the Big Three remain consistent and healthy? Can we count on Buehler to find it, or Houck or Harrison to step in and replicate what Dobbins did in the first half? All are possible... none are likely.

One thing is certain: the deadline deals this decade that just added an extra reliever or two who were once good or serviceable won't be enough. And no more Paxtons for the rotation -- if Brez is going to add a starter, it has to be a sturdy arm that can start a postseason game.

We don't have to break up the MLB roster, that cohesive energetic group on a 10-game streak. A deep farm system stockpiled with position player prospects was made for this moment...  

 

 

[Soxlover]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Getting right down to it: Boston has had winning records at the All-Star Break in every season this decade -- and then had miserable second halves (except '21, when the Sox still had a worse record than the first half).

Red Sox Record @ All-Star Break

'21 55-36... post Break: 37 more wins; finish 2nd

'22 48-45... post Break: 30 more wins; finish LAST

'23 48-43... post Break: 30 more wins; finish LAST 

'24 53-43... post Break: 28 more wins, finish 3rd

'25 53-45 -- WHAT CAN BRESLOW DO TO CHANGE THIS SECOND HALF CULTURE?

It all comes down to pitching, and fragile starting rotations that invariably lead to bullpen burnout. Can the Big Three remain consistent and healthy? Can we count on Buehler to find it, or Houck or Harrison to step in and replicate what Dobbins did in the first half? All are possible... none are likely.

One thing is certain: the deadline deals this decade that just added an extra reliever or two who were once good or serviceable won't be enough. And no more Paxtons for the rotation -- if Brez is going to add a starter, it has to be a sturdy arm that can start a postseason game.

We don't have to break up the MLB roster, that cohesive energetic group on a 10-game streak. A deep farm system stockpiled with position player prospects was made for this moment...  

 

 

Great post.

I would like to see a non rental trade to free up our OF\DH logjam plus a rental deal involving no top prospects.

I like our 40 and farm. Returning IL players may help but don’t count on it

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

Great post.

I would like to see a non rental trade to free up our OF\DH logjam plus a rental deal involving no top prospects.

I like our 40 and farm. Returning IL players may help but don’t count on it

I suspect that any deal involving no top prospects is going to net you a return no better than what we've received the last few years.  Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia weren't exactly difference makers last year. 

Could they make that kind of a move and it plays out better for them this time? it's certainly possible. 

[mvp 78]

'25 13-2 going into the ASB

'24 10-3 going into the ASB

'23 8-1 going into the ASB

'22 3-10 going into the ASB 🤨

'21 11-5 going into the ASB

[mvp 78]

Abolish the ASB. Unfair to the Boston Red Sox.

[Soxlover]

53 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I suspect that any deal involving no top prospects is going to net you a return no better than what we've received the last few years.  Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia weren't exactly difference makers last year. 

Could they make that kind of a move and it plays out better for them this time? it's certainly possible. 

I think Sandlin or Cespedes can net better than last year.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

I think Sandlin or Cespedes can net better than last year.

Cespedes with his 614 OPS in low A is going to net a good return? 

[sk7326]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cespedes with his 614 OPS in low A is going to net a good return? 

for a good reliever possibly - especially given his age.  All it takes is one club to still like him a lot.  

But it does point to imo that there are a decent number of guys with some sort of value (Romero, Bleis, Cespedes, Sandlin) the team could likely put into a buyer's trade without a ton of remorse.

[mvp 78]

They also have Rule 5 eligible guys like Hayden Mullins (last night: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 3K, 0 ER). 👀

[Soxlover]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cespedes with his 614 OPS in low A is going to net a good return? 

 

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Cespedes with his 614 OPS in low A is going to net a good return? 

Yes

[Soxlover]

Mullins , Monegro, Paez, Cespedes, Bleis, YRod, maybe even Jordan or Sandlin …

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Soxlover said:

Mullins , Monegro, Paez, Cespedes, Bleis, YRod, maybe even Jordan or Sandlin …

Yophery isn't going to net anything substantial unless packaged with something good. That one was a swing and a miss by Bres if they were offered other assets. 

[mvp 78]

 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, Soxlover said:

I think Sandlin or Cespedes can net better than last year.

I think they would net better than those two, but marginally better. 

We have to bid with about 20 teams here so if we want better talent this year it's going to have to sting a little. 

[notin]

20 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Pittsburgh has lost a ton over the past 10 days!!!  Time for bres-slow to make them an offer for skenes that they cannot refuse!!!!  
 

Doubtful Skenes can be had without giving up one or both of Mayer and Anthony.  

BTV accepts a package of Campbell, Abreu, Arias and Tolle.  But would Pittsburgh? Should Boston?
 

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Soxlover said:

Great post.

I would like to see a non rental trade to free up our OF\DH logjam plus a rental deal involving no top prospects.

I like our 40 and farm. Returning IL players may help but don’t count on it

Duran to Philadelphia.  Philly 21yo SS prospect Aiden Miller to Pitt.  Mitch Keller to Boston.

Doesn’t work on BTV unless Philly also send AA LHP Moises Chace to Boston as well.  Chace, however, is out for the rest of the year (and probably half of next year) after TJ.  So someone else?

[Maxbialystock]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Abolish the ASB. Unfair to the Boston Red Sox.

Great compilation of stats, mvp78.  Thanks.

So point one is that the Sox ain't "el foldos" so much as having to endure a tough 2d half schedule. 

Point two is that the AL East again has the best W-L record in MLB and the Sox still have a bunch of those games to play.  Plus of course the three NL division leaders in the next 9 games.  

Point three, however, is that these Sox are deep in good lineup players.  You know that's true when practically the entire Talksox board wants a better hitting backup catcher.  Everyone pretty much likes the primary catcher and the other 8 lineup position players.  I took a quick peek at the total WAR's for the 2021 Sox lineup players and they are just a tad higher than the ones for the 2025 Sox who have played just 95 games.  

Point four are the  three pretty good starters in Crochet, Bello, and Giolito, who are worlds better than Eovaldi, ERod, and Pivetta in 2021, who also finished the season without a closer.   Plus Buehler and Fitts aren't awful. 

My conclusion from the above is that these Sox have a real shot despite the tough schedule, so stay tuned.  

 

[Soxlover]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I think they would net better than those two, but marginally better. 

We have to bid with about 20 teams here so if we want better talent this year it's going to have to sting a little. 

Those two turned into chumps but were not bad at the time, in terms of recent few years.