A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Kimmi]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox offense is 2nd in hard hit and were even smoking the ball yesterday (contrary to what some people thought in the game thread yesterday). They are just not getting the right launch angle at the moment. I believe the offense will turn it around eventually. 

It looks like they're trying to pull the ball too much.  Go oppo, young men, go oppo.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

It looks like they're trying to pull the ball too much.  Go oppo, young men, go oppo.

Story is our highest ranked "Oppo" guy at 33%. Next are...

31% Duran

27% Rafaela

26% Casas

25% Narvaez

24% Abreu

____________

23.3% League

___________

23% Devers

20% Romy & KC

13% Bregman & Wong

 

[Nick]

"Boston entered Monday sixth in the majors in runs with 77 but 40.2% of those runs came in two games against the Cardinals. Boston has scored 47 runs in its other 16 games (including Monday), an average of just 2.9 runs per game."

This to me captures Red Sox historically. We'll outscore the opponent 21-9 in a 3 game series but lose 2 out of 3, winning 16-1 and losing 3-5 and 2-3. 

But hey we 'averaged' 7 runs per game. It's a mirage folks.

I am very thankful we have not extended Houck and Casas.

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Nick said:

"Boston entered Monday sixth in the majors in runs with 77 but 40.2% of those runs came in two games against the Cardinals. Boston has scored 47 runs in its other 16 games (including Monday), an average of just 2.9 runs per game."

This to me captures Red Sox historically. We'll outscore the opponent 21-9 in a 3 game series but lose 2 out of 3, winning 16-1 and losing 3-5 and 2-3. 

But hey we 'averaged' 7 runs per game. It's a mirage folks.

I am very thankful we have not extended Houck and Casas.

 

It's sure looking like trading Casas would have been a good winter move.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It's sure looking like trading Casas would have been a good winter move.

yep. and i was adamant that he not be traded over the winter. too bad it didn't happen. he's utterly useless.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Everyone needs to take a deep breath and heed reminders that it's still early.

There's plenty of time before August, when the Red Sox' annual collapse obliterates any pretensions towards the postseason.

[Bellhorn04]

18 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Was watching a clip of "The Sport Hub" and they're suggesting analytics is too much of a factor with the Red Sox. So much so that one of them told Jim Rice to stop talking with a prospect he was giving advice to. We obviously benefited, probably the most, from analytics but now I think it's gone too far. For one thing it almost makes players merely the body for the analyzers who are the mind. I think this could have a detrimental effect on the players not relying on themselves enough, making them second guess themselves too much. Just this idea of some unknown group of people on computers, making decisions or the team, doesn't sit right with me. 

This is exactly what I'm afraid of.  They've gone all in on some sort of "data-driven" philosophy.  As of now the philosophy is looking scary bad, with last night's 14 K/0 BB fiasco adding to the growing pile of horrible numbers.

Kind of laughed off the Rice incident at the time, but maybe it wasn't so funny. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This is exactly what I'm afraid of.  They've gone all in on some sort of data-driven philosophy.  As of now the philosophy is looking scary bad, with last night's 14 K/0 BB fiasco adding to the growing pile of horrible numbers..   

That incident where a younger employee disrespected Hall of Famer Jim Rice answering a hitter's question reeks of the minions sent by the richest man in the world to fire lifelong government workers.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe the day the Sox hired Dillon Lawson, who was fired mid-season by the Yankees (which rarely happens with hitting coaches), will go down as a dark dark day in the history of the Sox offense.  

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This is exactly what I'm afraid of.  They've gone all in on some sort of "data-driven" philosophy.  As of now the philosophy is looking scary bad, with last night's 14 K/0 BB fiasco adding to the growing pile of horrible numbers.

Kind of laughed off the Rice incident at the time, but maybe it wasn't so funny. 

Why even ask the greats to be around the players if they can't have open conversations? 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I believe the day the Sox hired Dillon Lawson, who was fired mid-season by the Yankees (which rarely happens with hitting coaches), will go down as a dark dark day in the history of the Sox offense.  

The offense was bad prior to that guy being hired, Bell. 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This is exactly what I'm afraid of.  They've gone all in on some sort of "data-driven" philosophy.  As of now the philosophy is looking scary bad, with last night's 14 K/0 BB fiasco adding to the growing pile of horrible numbers.

Kind of laughed off the Rice incident at the time, but maybe it wasn't so funny. 

You can lay some blame on the batting woes to data, but you can’t to the same with the fielding woes. Pretty much the only thing the Red Sox have done well at so far this season is stealing bases. Would the Red Sox have been worse off today with Raffy at 3B, and Masa as DH? So far Bregman who was supposed to have shored up the D at 3B has been less than stellar with 4 errors that should be 5 if not for an over generous official scorer that had OB, and Merloni befuddled.

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The offense was bad prior to that guy being hired, Bell. 

Maybe so, but it's only in 2024 and 2025 that the Sox have ascended to the top in the K department.  

I'm not so much blaming Lawson as I am blaming an approach that Lawson obviously fit into perfectly as far as the Sox were concerned.  

I can't remember seeing so many brutal box scores like last night's 14 K 0 BB debacle.  They're becoming a regular occurrence.

Maybe we have to start looking at you, Mr. Breslow...

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You can lay some blame on the batting woes to data, but you can’t to the same with the fielding woes. Pretty much the only thing the Red Sox have done well at so far this season is stealing bases. Would the Red Sox have been worse off today with Raffy at 3B, and Masa as DH? So far Bregman who was supposed to have shored up the D at 3B has been less than stellar with 4 errors that should be 5 if not for an over generous official scorer that had OB, and Merloni befuddled.

Somehow the data-driven approach has also poisoned the fielding!  Kidding but maybe not. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe so, but it's only in 2024 and 2025 that the Sox have ascended to the top in the K department.  

I'm not so much blaming Lawson as I am blaming an approach that Lawson obviously fit into perfectly as far as the Sox were concerned.  

I can't remember seeing so many brutal box scores like last night's 14 K 0 BB debacle.  They're becoming a regular occurrence.

Maybe we have to start looking at you, Mr. Breslow...

Like I've said previously, it's roster construction. 

2024 guys with over 100 PA and over 25% k rate: TON, Casas, Story, Abreu, Romy, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Hamilton

2025 guys over 25% k rate: Sabol, Devers, Hamilton, Story, Refsnyder, Casas, Wong

 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Like I've said previously, it's roster construction. 

2024 guys with over 100 PA and over 25% k rate: TON, Casas, Story, Abreu, Romy, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Hamilton

2025 guys over 25% k rate: Sabol, Devers, Hamilton, Story, Refsnyder, Casas, Wong

 

And like I've pointed out, Casas's approach seems to have deteriorated badly since his first season.  

Maybe they've ruined him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Red Sox average 10 Ks per game on the season, but now have five with 13 or 14 whiffs -- which equates to half their outs made in over a quarter of their contests so far.

The past four games Boston has 43 strikeouts in 144 plate appearances, three more Ks than Williams and DiMaggio combined for in 1,228 plate appearances in 1941.

That year, Ted hit .406 and Joe had a 56-game hitting streak (in the segregated majors) but remember, Williams fanned twice as many times as Joe -- 27 to only 13 -- most likely because of a slight uppercut swing.

So the Red Sox struck out more times last night than Joe D. did in his entire 1941 season...

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox offense fell off a cliff in mid-August last year.  A lot of this was attributed to Devers playing hurt.

But maybe it also had something to do with "the book" that opposing pitchers have on our hitting approach being refined.  And that would be why it seems to have carried forward into 2025.   

[Hitch]

52 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This is exactly what I'm afraid of.  They've gone all in on some sort of "data-driven" philosophy.  As of now the philosophy is looking scary bad, with last night's 14 K/0 BB fiasco adding to the growing pile of horrible numbers.

Kind of laughed off the Rice incident at the time, but maybe it wasn't so funny. 

But surely, the data tells you on 2 strikes to shorten the swing and get the ball in play? That's about as much a percentage shoe-in as you can get you'd think? Yet for whatever reason, we just are not doing it. The strike outs are ugly beyond the numbers. They're flat out ugly looking, too. 

It's fair to raise questions about how the team is being coached. It's difficult to imagine that the players are being told over and over to shorten swings and do different things, just to not when they play. But who knows.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yep. and i was adamant that he not be traded over the winter. too bad it didn't happen. he's utterly useless.

So far, yes, but I'm not writing hi off, yet.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And like I've pointed out, Casas's approach seems to have deteriorated badly since his first season.  

Maybe they've ruined him.

You have made some good points, but it's hard to look at the 2023 to 2024 numbers, when he played just 63 games last year, and most of them were after his return from a very serious injury.

It's hard to gauge where he is headed, but he is off to a horrific start- something we all agree on.

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yep. and i was adamant that he not be traded over the winter. too bad it didn't happen. he's utterly useless.

By all reports they tried often to trade him but couldn't get the price they wanted. I've never understood the love for Casas, but he's ours now either way. His trade value is nothing. 

Can't break out of a slump unless you're played I guess. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

By all reports they tried often to trade him but couldn't get the price they wanted. I've never understood the love for Casas, but he's ours now either way. His trade value is nothing. 

He has a career OPS+ of 120.  

But his fielding has been terrible and now he also looks terrible at the plate.  Yuck.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I can't remember seeing so many brutal box scores like last night's 14 K 0 BB debacle.  They're becoming a regular occurrence.

Maybe we have to start looking at you, Mr. Breslow...

Watching and listening to Brez at the press conference announcing Kristian Campbell's extension -- I won't say it was chilling, but at least odd...

Here was a CBO almost ranting in his praise of many different organizational departments... for basically creating Campbell. I kept waiting, but there wasn't as much credit to the actual player -- a 22-year old kid with one full year of pro ball -- for doing everything it took to become that guy.

 

[Old Red]

Cora said after the game last night along with usual we’ve got to do better that the team wasn’t ready to play last night, and that was on him. The WL record is what’s most important, but how they’ve played getting there is important too, and it’s pretty much looked that the team wasn’t even ready to start the season, and have looked like they have in past seasons, which is like a bunch of Little Leaguers, and that’s on Cora too. Geeeeesh!

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Hitch said:

 I've never understood the love for Casas, but he's ours now either way.

Well...

.856 in 2023 (502 PAs)

.857 in 2024, before the injury (90 PAs)

That's over 600 PAs of .857 batting. 37 HRs and 31 2B+3B. At 650, that's over 40 HRs and 75 XBHs and an OBP at about .360. 

His D is worse than awful, but I can understand the "love" or hop with the bat 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Cora said after the game last night along with usual we’ve got to do better that the team wasn’t ready to play last night, and that was on him. The WL record is what’s most important, but how they’ve played getting there is important too, and it’s pretty much looked that the team wasn’t even ready to start the season, and have looked like they have in past seasons, which is like a bunch of Little Leaguers, and that’s on Cora too. Geeeeesh!

My Little Leaguers were always prepared for the games. Last night one of them said -- when Duran lobbed a throw to second base while two men scored -- "If I did that, my coach would pull me right of the game." 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

But surely, the data tells you on 2 strikes to shorten the swing and get the ball in play? That's about as much a percentage shoe-in as you can get you'd think? Yet for whatever reason, we just are not doing it. The strike outs are ugly beyond the numbers. They're flat out ugly looking, too. 

It's fair to raise questions about how the team is being coached. It's difficult to imagine that the players are being told over and over to shorten swings and do different things, just to not when they play. But who knows.

Casas sets up in the box to do just that, but ends up watching strike 3 go by him all the friggin time. 

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, Hitch said:

By all reports they tried often to trade him but couldn't get the price they wanted. I've never understood the love for Casas, but he's ours now either way. His trade value is nothing. 

Can't break out of a slump unless you're played I guess. 

It's because they kept adding Masa to the trade. They should have just moved Devers to 1b and left Masa at DH. 

[jdc69]

42 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Watching and listening to Brez at the press conference announcing Kristian Campbell's extension -- I won't say it was chilling, but at least odd...

Here was a CBO almost ranting in his praise of many different organizational departments... for basically creating Campbell. I kept waiting, but there wasn't as much credit to the actual player -- a 22-year old kid with one full year of pro ball -- for doing everything it took to become that guy.

 

Thats very telling and wouldnt doubt is part of the problem. Today's culture doesn't celebrate the individual anymore, it's all about "it takes a village..." aka "no accountability." It all goes back to not wanting people to have hurt feelings.