Who should start the year as the #5 starter?

[Cameron Tran]

    With Alex Cora confirming Kutter Crawford will begin the year on the injured list and with Brayan Bello's opening day status in doubt, a hole has opened in the Red Sox rotation. Crochet, Buehler, Houck, and Giolito will likely operate in spots 1-4, but the Red Sox, facing a heavy early schedule, will need a 5th starter as to not wear out the bullpen early. In my eyes, there are only 3 candidates for the job, Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell. 

    Last season, Criswell was brought in as a AAA depth option for the Red Sox, but quickly found himself thrust into the rotation due to a string of early injuries. Criswell impressed for the Red Sox, throwing to a 3.49 ERA in 16 starts. While his FIP of 4.21 indicates he relied on some luck, his 6.8 BB% and 51.6 GB% helped him prevent runners from getting on base and stay an effective contact-first pitcher. Criswell has far and away the most experience out of the bunch, as Priester and Fitts have combined for just 70 MLB innings. It is worth noting that Criswell struggled in his most recent spring training appearance against the Blue Jays, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits against mostly starters. Stuff+ doesn't love Criswell's arsenal outside his slider (which hitters hit .330 off last year), but he is able to locate well enough to induce weak contact mostly into the ground. Criswell, like Fitts and Priester, still has minor-league options available.  

    Richard Fitts, acquired from the Yankees in the Alex Verdugo trade, pitched well in a September cameo. In 20.2 innings, Fitts allowed 4 runs while striking out 9. His 7.5% AAA walk rate is somewhat of a concern, and should be something for pitching coach Andrew Bailey to keep an eye on. So far this spring, Fitts has impressed Red Sox coaches with an uptick in velocity. His fastball has averaged 97 mph in 2 spring training appearances, up from the 94 mph clip he sat last year. Fitts has also worked on his slider over the offseason, adding some velocity and giving it a tighter movement profile in hopes to differentiate it further from his sweeper. The key for Fitts will be working on getting deeper into games. He allowed a .188 avg and 0 earned runs his first time through the order last year, but a .288 avg and 4 earned runs his second and third time through as his hard hit rate ballooned from 13.8% to 38.3%. 

    Priester, acquired at the deadline last year from the Pirates, has long been a highly touted pitching prospect after being selected in the 1st round of the 2019 draft. Since then, he has struggled to maintain an MLB role and has not shown enough in AAA to warrant extensive time in the bigs. Priester excels as limiting walks and getting strikouts, but has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters. In 109 chances, lefties hit .330 of Priester with 4 homeruns and 18 RBI. Like Fitts, Priester has worked hard in the offseason to add velocity. in 6.2 innings this spring, his sinker topped out at 97 while sitting 95, a major improved from the 93 he sat most of last year. Additionally, Priester has looked to cut his fastball out of his repertoire this season. Far and away his worst pitch, batters his .400 of the fastball with a swinging strike % of just 8.5% and a linedrive rate north of 40%. To replace this, Priester has toyed with a cutter this spring, a pitch that works better against lefties as it runs into their hands.

    After an impressive early spring, it would not be crazy to deem Priester the frontrunner, but I think Criswell's performance last year and MLB experience gives him a slight edge so far. If Priester, or Fitts, continue to impress while Criswell struggles through the rest of the spring, it would not be surprised to see either of them beat out the incumbent Criswell. That being said, a heavy workload to begin the season that sees the Red Sox playing 16 straight and 21 in the first 22 days means Cora could very well give all 3 spot starts to begin the year. 

[Bellhorn04]

If the glove Fitts, wear it.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If the glove Fitts, wear it.

Who’s healthy?

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If the glove Fitts, wear it.

It looks like bello & Crawford will start the season on the IL, so the glove Fitts Richard.

[Larry Cook]

I think preister and fitts could be in the rotation. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think preister and fitts could be in the rotation. 

Who is out, besides Bello & Crawford?

[notin]

Kyle Gibson

[Larry Cook]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Who is out, besides Bello & Crawford?

I watched video of giolita throwing!!! Hard to imagine that guy is ready by the 27th!!!

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I watched video of giolita throwing!!! Hard to imagine that guy is ready by the 27th!!!

He hasn’t pitched in a game yet, and supposedly will next week.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

He hasn’t pitched in a game yet, and supposedly will next week.

Our team is kind of gradually trickling in LOL

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Our team is kind of gradually trickling in LOL

The last few spring trainings have featured actual rotation locks less and less each year…

[mvp 78]

Looks like Fitts/Priester might be sticking around for a while. 

[notin]

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Priester, and Fitts.

With Cooper Criswell on standby.

 

When do things get serious enough to call Kyle Gibson’s agent?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Priester, and Fitts.

With Cooper Criswell on standby.

 

When do things get serious enough to call Kyle Gibson’s agent?

You really think a guy like Gibson will fit in on the Boston Red Sox? He led all NL pitchers with a 1.000 fielding percentage last year, after leading the AL with a 1.000% in three previous seasons.

What a square peg on a round mound he'd be in Fenway Park. If the Sox sign him, they might have to throw in a Yoshida to trade Gibson's awkward perfect glove out of town.

[Brock Beauchamp]

IMO, you kinda have to go with Fitts until he shows you he shouldn't be in an MLB rotation.

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Priester, and Fitts.

With Cooper Criswell on standby.

 

When do things get serious enough to call Kyle Gibson’s agent?

Gibson's '24 is the best we could hope for out of Gio's '25, right? 

[mvp 78]

Lance Lynn territory if one of the young guys doesn't look ready? 

[jad]

Well, at least Houck looks ready:  today's line, 7 batters, 1 out, 4 hits and two walks.  3 runs (so far), leaving the ducks on the pond.   Bailed out by  ... Cy ... or is it Isaac?   Delock??  No Isaac Stebens.

[vegasbob]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Priester, and Fitts.

With Cooper Criswell on standby.

 

When do things get serious enough to call Kyle Gibson’s agent?

Nothing as good as that home-grown, Red Sox Way developed pitching.     Such a joke to follow all the off-season prognostications by professional and semi-pro pundits on the pitching rotation for Boston.    

[notin]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

IMO, you kinda have to go with Fitts until he shows you he shouldn't be in an MLB rotation.

And then what?

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, notin said:

And then what?

Pray?

But if Fitts fails, hopefully Bello or Giolito or whomever is on his way back.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Nothing as good as that home-grown, Red Sox Way developed pitching.     Such a joke to follow all the off-season prognostications by professional and semi-pro pundits on the pitching rotation for Boston.    

If the Sox didn't have Priester/Fitts/etc. they'd be really in a tough spot right now. They only have an MLB quality rotation after losing 3 SP's because of the depth. Not many orgs could handle that. 

[Hugh2]

Whoever looks like they're one of the best 5 starting pitchers on March 26th, that's who should be the 5th starter. 

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Whoever looks like they're one of the best 5 starting pitchers on March 26th, that's who should be the 5th starter. 

But that will probably include Crochet and Buehler, so I don't think that's exactly what you mean.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who's going to be the 4th starter?

[Bellhorn04]

As of this moment candidates for 4 and 5 are Giolito, Fitts, Priester and Criswell.  Pretty Cap'n Obvious, really.

And Giolito's hammy issue just as Obviously makes him a tad questionable.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As of this moment candidates for 4 and 5 are Giolito, Fitts, Priester and Criswell.  Pretty Cap'n Obvious, really.

And Giolito's hammy issue just as Obviously makes him a tad questionable.  

Tadolito's the reason I changed 5th to 4th. There are still two weeks for Crochet/Bueller/Houck to tweak something and make it 3rd..

This isn't really pessimism, if you look at all the other rotations in various throes of decimation.

Why not us?

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As of this moment candidates for 4 and 5 are Giolito, Fitts, Priester and Criswell.  Pretty Cap'n Obvious, really.

And Giolito's hammy issue just as Obviously makes him a tad questionable.  

Fitts and Priester have the inside track and may not give it up. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Tadolito's the reason I changed 5th to 4th. There are still two weeks for Crochet/Bueller/Houck to tweak something and make it 3rd..

This isn't really pessimism, if you look at all the other rotations in various throes of decimation.

Why not us?

A healthy rotation is pretty much an oxymoron now.  The Dodgers seem to have the right approach-by starting with about a dozen guys, there's a good chance of having 3 healthy ones in the playoffs.  Admittedly it's an approach that gets a bit pricey... 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A healthy rotation is pretty much an oxymoron now.  The Dodgers seem to have the right approach-by starting with about a dozen guys, there's a good chance of having 3 healthy ones in the playoffs.  Admittedly it's an approach that gets a bit pricey... 

And LA still had to use an opener to win the World Series...