Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mumbo, and jumbo. Mumbo, and jumbo. 

$3.8M is what Cro Man is worth this year. How is that Mumbo jumbo?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

$3.8M is what Cro Man is worth this year. How is that Mumbo jumbo?

That's his arbitration amount. Arbitration has no bearing on what he'd making via FA. It's two completely different things. Don't know why you are conflating the two and bringing up Skubal's arb number. 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's his arbitration amount. Arbitration has no bearing on what he'd making via FA. It's two completely different things. Don't know why you are conflating the two and bringing up Skubal's arb number. 

I never said it did, so once again I’ll point out the FACT that he is NOT a FA, and won’t be until 2027. Why do you keep bringing up FA when Cro Man is NOT a FA. I don’t care what  Cro Man would get as a FA, because he is NOT one. All I care about right now is 2025. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I never said it did, so once again I’ll point out the FACT that he is NOT a FA, and won’t be until 2027. Why do you keep bringing up FA when Cro Man is NOT a FA. I don’t care what  Cro Man would get as a FA, because he is NOT one. All I care about right now is 2025. 

Cool. 

[Old Red]

What would Duran get if he was a FA? What would Houck get if he was a FA? What would Casas get if he was a FA.  What will Pivetta get, because he IS a FA?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox are rightly mocked as the Kings of Interest, but they've been Jesters of Market Value a lot longer.

Their lowball offers that cause homegrown stars to leave and free agents to shun them disgust me.

For too long the Red Sox front office has acted like MLBers owe them for getting the chance to play pro ball in Boston.

Maybe it started with Varitek or Lowell taking less than other offers to remain with the club, or Lester sabotaging his own upcoming free agency with a stated goal... or even Pedroia taking a team-friendly discount (posters rued that contract at the end, but Pedey signed for less than his contemporary Cano, who maybe had more talent but wasn't nearly a teammate or baseball player of Dustin's caliber).

The Sox could've kept Mookie for his Hall of Fame career if they just gave him market value -- not 10% or 20% less, which they seemed to insult him with every time an extension was discussed. Since then, other good players have left, and now we're on the verge of welcoming some of the top-rated prospects in franchise history.

Don't screw this up, Boston. It's not just a privilege to play at Fenway Park -- it's a privilege to have so many devoted, paying fans still want to root for the new stars about to call it home.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

What he would get as a FA two years from now would depend on what he would do the next two years. He’s not a FA right now, so it’s really irrelevant. Be happy the Red Sox won a bidding war with  other teams. They just did it with suspects instead of with money. Most likely others wouldn’t give up what the Red Sox did.

No other team had 5 prospects in the top MLB.com top  50, so no one else could have.  But would other teams if they were in the Sox position? Definitely.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I can’t answer, because he’s not a FA.  Who say’s he worth $20M now? Time' and process says NO.I don’t have any problem offering $20M in 2027. I have a problem offering him $20M in 2025, or 2026. I get all you’re saying, but where we differ is I want to see more innings under his belt, before I start offering him the big bucks. Same with Houck, or more AB from Duran to do it again this year.

It's a simple question, ut you don't have to answer.

If he was a FA, now what do you think he'd be worth?

How's this, would you be happy, sad of inbetween, if they signed him to an $20M x 5 year deal as a FA?

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox are rightly mocked as the Kings of Interest, but they've been Jesters of Market Value a lot longer.

Their lowball offers that cause homegrown stars to leave and free agents to shun them disgust me.

For too long the Red Sox front office has acted like MLBers owe them for getting the chance to play pro ball in Boston.

Maybe it started with Varitek or Lowell taking less than other offers to remain with the club, or Lester sabotaging his own upcoming free agency with a stated goal... or even Pedroia taking a team-friendly discount (posters rued that contract at the end, but Pedey signed for less than his contemporary Cano, who maybe had more talent but wasn't nearly a teammate or baseball player of Dustin's caliber).

The Sox could've kept Mookie for his Hall of Fame career if they just gave him market value -- not 10% or 20% less, which they seemed to insult him with every time an extension was discussed. Since then, other good players have left, and now we're on the verge of welcoming some of the top-rated prospects in franchise history.

Don't screw this up, Boston. It's not just a privilege to play at Fenway Park -- it's a privilege to have so many devoted, paying fans still want to root for the new stars about to call it home.

The VTek case was an interesting one. He kinda got screwed in that last contract.

[vjcsmoke]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox are rightly mocked as the Kings of Interest, but they've been Jesters of Market Value a lot longer.

Their lowball offers that cause homegrown stars to leave and free agents to shun them disgust me.

For too long the Red Sox front office has acted like MLBers owe them for getting the chance to play pro ball in Boston.

Maybe it started with Varitek or Lowell taking less than other offers to remain with the club, or Lester sabotaging his own upcoming free agency with a stated goal... or even Pedroia taking a team-friendly discount (posters rued that contract at the end, but Pedey signed for less than his contemporary Cano, who maybe had more talent but wasn't nearly a teammate or baseball player of Dustin's caliber).

The Sox could've kept Mookie for his Hall of Fame career if they just gave him market value -- not 10% or 20% less, which they seemed to insult him with every time an extension was discussed. Since then, other good players have left, and now we're on the verge of welcoming some of the top-rated prospects in franchise history.

Don't screw this up, Boston. It's not just a privilege to play at Fenway Park -- it's a privilege to have so many devoted, paying fans still want to root for the new stars about to call it home.

Agreed. The Red Sox have been spurning keeping their homegrown talent since the days of Ellsbury and Lester. But losing perennial all-star Mookie Betts was the most insulting loss and this franchise hasn't recovered from that loss since.

Did you know that former GM Chaim Bloom described avoiding paying Betts his well deserved contract extension the same as "avoiding a car wreck?" It's just insane the mentality in the Red Sox front office.

When all is said and done Betts will end up in the HOF and the Red Sox will be known for trading him away for a laughable return because they were too cheap to pay a market value contract.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/11/2025 at 6:15 PM, mvp 78 said:

Belllo is a #4. Crochet is a #1. They have nothing to do with each other.

Bello has the stuff to be more than a #4

[Randy Red Sox]

once again the FO has sold RSN down the river this off season. Yes they may have added to the rotation but they have generally refused to buck up to improve this team.  It is going to be very interesting to see if they can extend Crochet.  Personally I doubt it.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

Agreed. The Red Sox have been spurning keeping their homegrown talent since the days of Ellsbury and Lester. But losing perennial all-star Mookie Betts was the most insulting loss and this franchise hasn't recovered from that loss since.

Did you know that former GM Chaim Bloom described avoiding paying Betts his well deserved contract extension the same as "avoiding a car wreck?" It's just insane the mentality in the Red Sox front office.

When all is said and done Betts will end up in the HOF and the Red Sox will be known for trading him away for a laughable return because they were too cheap to pay a market value contract.

Never heard the "car wreck" line.

They were right to let Jake and many others walk.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

once again the FO has sold RSN down the river this off season. Yes they may have added to the rotation but they have generally refused to buck up to improve this team.  It is going to be very interesting to see if they can extend Crochet.  Personally I doubt it.

They lost me, if they don't lock him up. They might as well have just punted to 2027 with Teel and the Gang.

For years, I have been saying we need to add 3 SP'ers, but we'll be lucky if we add one. I guess I should be happy we added Crochet, Buehler and Gio (in a roundabout way) and Sandoval (in an about-round way.) I am, actually, although I'm sick these rehab-type signings. Our rotation is top 2-3 in the AL and maybe top 5 in MLB. That is not an easy thing to do, when we went into 2024 with Gio as out lone hope, and Houck was forced into the 5 slot, when he went down.

The D still sucks, and please, no "But Story is...."

The pen was okay, last year, but the worst over the second half, and we lost our best pen arms. Adding Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson does not move the needle mush, for me.

The offense may need a group effort and better health to just break even.

There is still time to fix 2-3 of our top 4-5 higher need areas, but we may need cash or some shrewd trading by the Brezman.

I keep moving between mild optimism and near total pessimism, checking in on MLBTR in vain hopes I see something that excites me, and trying to keep some slivers of hope alive.

I think our team is better. I do not see other AL teams making big leaps and bounds to pass us or widen the gap that may already exist. Our team is younger than most. We have more ML ready top prospects than everyone else. We have a solid rotation and 5 pitcher rotation depth (Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins & Fulmer.) We have about 20 RP'ers with varying levels of promise, but not enough we can count on to be "the man," when we need it most. We have some very nice offensive players, some with serious split flaws or defensive liabilities, but a few platoons might work out well.

OOooops, there I go again- putting the pie in the sky.

Nevermind.

[moonslav59]

On 1/11/2025 at 10:59 AM, moonslav59 said:

He will probably ask for an opt out after 2027 (3rd year) and maybe we end up having to settle on after 2028 (year 4.)

Ideally, we just pay him a little more to give up on the opt-out demands, assuming he does that. If there was ever a player to want and need an opt out, he fits the profile.

That was my point from day one.

#1 priority is to maximize years of control on the 25 year old. Don't go insane, but be fair and generous. Front end load it some to entice him take a little less, later to lower the AAV. Insist on no opt-outs, but if the numbers get insane, start working backwards on the year he gets an opt out. We might have to settle on 2029, or even 2028, but we need as many as possible. 

I fully realize the risk. He could be the next Whitlock or Strasburg and kills us in several different ways, but we gotta commit to someone: put the money on the young guy.

[Hugh2]

The whole basis of any pre free agency extension is you’re paying much less than you would for comparative value in free agency.

so asking the question of what a guy would get if he’s a free agent not is 100% relevant.

you also don’t trade guys like Teel and Montgomery and not extend a guy.  Teams who make trades like that typically do with extension in mind.  
 

if the Sox wait a year the price tag could come close to doubling.  Should of just held onto Jordan Montgomery and the catcher of the future and signed a free agent pitcher at this point.

if you want elite talent on your team, you’re going to have to take a risk somewhere.  Not extending guys and paying 2x 3x the cost in free agency for older players is its own kind of risk. 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The whole basis of any pre free agency extension is you’re paying much less than you would for comparative value in free agency.

so asking the question of what a guy would get if he’s a free agent not is 100% relevant.

you also don’t trade guys like Teel and Montgomery and not extend a guy.  Teams who make trades like that typically do with extension in mind.  
 

if the Sox wait a year the price tag could come close to doubling.  Should of just held onto Jordan Montgomery and the catcher of the future and signed a free agent pitcher at this point.

if you want elite talent on your team, you’re going to have to take a risk somewhere.  Not extending guys and paying 2x 3x the cost in free agency for older players is its own kind of risk. 

No, you are right, asking what an arb guy would make, right now is NOT "100 relevant," but the point I was getting at was that if Crochet would get $20M a year, now, as a FA, and I think he'd get more, due to his age, then how can giving him an AAV starting in 2 years be some sort of gross overpay.

If teams were allowed to sign guys 2 years ahead of their current contract as FAs, IMO, he'd easily get more than $20M x 5 or 6 years. He'd probably get $25M x 6. That's how I choose to look at it- fully realizing it is based on speculation more than proven success- much like Yamo's contract was.

So, buy out the arb years ay about $20M/2 ($4M + $16M) and add $150M/6 and you come to $170M/8. To make sure it get's done, and to discourage opt-outs, I'd go $180M/8, maybe more. It's not a perfect method to determine future value, but the amount seems fair, to me, and more importantly, might seem fair to Crochet.

We can't keep low-balling our best players as they near their walk time.

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Bello has the stuff to be more than a #4

Ok, he can be a serviceable 3. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

once again the FO has sold RSN down the river this off season. Yes they may have added to the rotation but they have generally refused to buck up to improve this team.  It is going to be very interesting to see if they can extend Crochet.  Personally I doubt it.

So they now have the starting pitchers who pitched the 3rd and 4th innings of last year's All Star Game and you believe Bello is better than a 4. But they haven't improved the team? 

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That was my point from day one.

#1 priority is to maximize years of control on the 25 year old. Don't go insane, but be fair and generous. Front end load it some to entice him take a little less, later to lower the AAV. Insist on no opt-outs, but if the numbers get insane, start working backwards on the year he gets an opt out. We might have to settle on 2029, or even 2028, but we need as many as possible. 

I fully realize the risk. He could be the next Whitlock or Strasburg and kills us in several different ways, but we gotta commit to someone: put the money on the young guy.

It's better for the numbers to get "insane" then to let him walk away IMO. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

The whole basis of any pre free agency extension is you’re paying much less than you would for comparative value in free agency.

Explain the Rafaela extension then? Higher than what he'd get via ARB and FA. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Explain the Rafaela extension then? Higher than what he'd get via ARB and FA. 

I'm not Stephen effing Hawking man, I don't have a theory of everything that makes everything make sense;  teams still make stupid moves, they apparently really believe in Rafaela. 

Regardless, that doesn't beget the point that pre free agency extensions are for the purpose of locking guys up while they're younger and trying to save money in the long term. 

[Hugh2]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No, you are right, asking what an arb guy would make, right now is NOT "100 relevant," but the point I was getting at was that if Crochet would get $20M a year, now, as a FA, and I think he'd get more, due to his age, then how can giving him an AAV starting in 2 years be some sort of gross overpay.

If teams were allowed to sign guys 2 years ahead of their current contract as FAs, IMO, he'd easily get more than $20M x 5 or 6 years. He'd probably get $25M x 6. That's how I choose to look at it- fully realizing it is based on speculation more than proven success- much like Yamo's contract was.

So, buy out the arb years ay about $20M/2 ($4M + $16M) and add $150M/6 and you come to $170M/8. To make sure it get's done, and to discourage opt-outs, I'd go $180M/8, maybe more. It's not a perfect method to determine future value, but the amount seems fair, to me, and more importantly, might seem fair to Crochet.

We can't keep low-balling our best players as they near their walk time.

I really don't disagree with anything you guys are saying, my oc was more geared to the point OR made earlier. 

Ideally in an extension you're overpaying for a guy during the arb years, especially pre-arb years (which doesn't apply here) but you're saving money in later years.  

Given the Sox payroll status, and seemingly staying under this year, it's 100% logical and the right move to make to use that cap space THIS year for extensions.  You can make them, stay under the cap and possibly be in a better position 3-5 years down the line because of this. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Explain the Rafaela extension then? Higher than what he'd get via ARB and FA. 

Brez was in an extending mood. He tried to get Casas to extend too.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not Stephen effing Hawking man, I don't have a theory of everything that makes everything make sense;  teams still make stupid moves, they apparently really believe in Rafaela. 

Regardless, that doesn't beget the point that pre free agency extensions are for the purpose of locking guys up while they're younger and trying to save money in the long term. 

Sure, but you still have to take into account what this guy could make in his post ARB seasons, because that's what Crochet will be taking into account when he sits down to negotiate (approx 12M for two seasons of ARB and then off to FA). 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Brez was in an extending mood. He tried to get Casas to extend too.

They are in an extending mood now too apparently. I guess that means Crochet will get FA market value or more! 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I really don't disagree with anything you guys are saying, my oc was more geared to the point OR made earlier. 

Ideally in an extension you're overpaying for a guy during the arb years, especially pre-arb years (which doesn't apply here) but you're saving money in later years.  

Given the Sox payroll status, and seemingly staying under this year, it's 100% logical and the right move to make to use that cap space THIS year for extensions.  You can make them, stay under the cap and possibly be in a better position 3-5 years down the line because of this. 

Yes, IDEALLY. It just depends on if Crochet wants to sign now for guaranteed money or bet on himself and get to FA. If he wants to bet on himself, the Sox will have to make it worth his while to stick around. 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, but you still have to take into account what this guy could make in his post ARB seasons, because that's what Crochet will be taking into account when he sits down to negotiate (approx 12M for two seasons of ARB and then off to FA). 

I don't believe I ever suggested that isn't the case.  I think that's the whole point.  An extension now should be more money than he'd get under team control but a little less than what he'd get in FA right now. 

Hypothetically that's how an extension should work, I don't think a guy getting overpaid throws the whole system out of whack, it just means the Sox made a questionable move last year. 

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Regardless, that doesn't beget the point that pre free agency extensions are for the purpose of locking guys up while they're younger and trying to save money in the long term. 

You're talking about early extensions.

There are also the "one year away" extensions that can be very large dollars such as the one we didn't give to Betts.

And of course Crochet's would be a "two years away" extension.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, IDEALLY. It just depends on if Crochet wants to sign now for guaranteed money or bet on himself and get to FA. If he wants to bet on himself, the Sox will have to make it worth his while to stick around. 

By all accounts Crochet wants to sign an extension.  He wanted an extension signed for any team that traded for him last year, he's open to one this year and I'm sure the Sox traded for him with it in mind he wants an extension.  Highly supported by the fact that the Sox and him are talking. 

 

Now will the Sox eff this up???? IDK maybe.