Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You don’t think what a Japanese player does in Japan goes a long way in how MLB teams scout, and Judge players, and then determine what they will offer these players to come to the states? You don’t think with throwing ZERO innings in MLB the 897 innings Yam Man threw in Japan wasn’t what had all those MLB teams lining up to offer him all those big contracts. You don’t think what Masa did in Japan with ZERO AB in MLB didn’t influence Bloom, and his minions so much that they outbid everyone, and shut down the bidding in record time? Come on man!

You don't think actually playing time in MLB has more weight than playing time in Japan? Come on man!

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You don't think actually playing time in MLB has more weight than playing time in Japan? Come on man!

I didn’t even know that was questioned, or even talked about. Come on man!🙈🤭

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I can’t find anyone, and it’s also difficult to find pitcher extensions greater than 5 years.

Maybe a good parallel is Sandy Alcantara.  After his age 25 season, he had 4 years of service time and only 486 IP, and was coming off a 4 bWAR season.  He had some injury issues the first few years but no TJ.  (He has had one since.)

His extension was 5 years $55mill.  Certainly inflation and baseball economics would dictate Crochet top that  AAV, but double it? And for longer?

The only pitcher my limited research has found to get a contract extension longer than 5 years was Jose Berrios.  That’s the list…

Good stuff.

It is really hard finding an apples to apples situation. There is always some sort of major difference: age, arb years remaining when extended, amount of IP under their belt, injuries and more.

Berrios was 27 in 2021 and had 850 IP. His last arb was going to be 2022, so the NOV '21 signing bought out just 1 arb year.

While Crochet will be 27, when his arbs are done, it's not the same as Berrios, and his IP'd are way less. I'm not sure about their injury comp. Berrios did get $131M/7, and with inflation that might be something like $160-170M/7, now and maybe more in 2 years.

Alcantara signed NOV '21, as well, but his case is much different. His $56M/5 looks like Bello's. Sandy had just finished his pre-arb years and had 3 arb years bought out, and added 2 years of control. He was 25, like Crochet but had almost 500 IP.

Finding comps is a useful way to try and set a value, but this case seems too unique to follow that method.

Comparing him to Yamamoto is too far off, too. The IP thing always comes back to make Crochet's future value equation much more speculative. His injury situation beats nobody in these comps. His age does for most. Judging his current level of skills is also not a sure thing, and who can say his stuff is the same as Yamo, Alcantara, Berrios, Strider, Strasburg and others mentioned, recently. He does look better than Bello, who got $55M/6 way before his arbs were even starting.

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I didn’t even know that was questioned, or even talked about. Come on man!🙈🤭

Yeah, I think you know what we're getting at.  MLB innings should OBVIOUSLY count for more than innings in Japan.

As I said at the start, this is a rabbit hole.

But claiming Crochet is vastly less proven than Yamamoto is kind of silly IMHO. 

[notin]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, I think you know what we're getting at.  MLB innings should OBVIOUSLY count for more than innings in Japan.

As I said at the start, this is a rabbit hole.

But claiming Crochet is vastly less proven than Yamamoto is kind of silly IMHO. 

For performance, MLB certainly should have more weight than Japan.  But what about for durability?

[Bellhorn04]

One thing that the Yamamoto reminded us of is that projected paydays can be off by plenty.  Yamamoto was 'only' predicted to get about $225 million.  The actual number was $100 million higher and could have exceeded that if Cohen was allowed to up his offer. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

For performance, MLB certainly should have more weight than Japan.  But what about for durability?

That's why I'm saying it's a rabbit hole.  There's no way to do a comparison that everyone would agree on.

[Bellhorn04]

We heard it over and over again - the reason Yamamoto was so special and would get paid so much was his age.

Crochet would be a couple years older than Moto, but still much younger than the typical free agent.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We heard it over and over again - the reason Yamamoto was so special and would get paid so much was his age.

Crochet would be a couple years older than Moto, but still much younger than the typical free agent.

But 27yo free agents, while far from common, are not unheard of.  It does seem like many pitchers on track to reach free agency that young do extend beforehand, but also sign extensions short enough to still enter the free agent market at an age commensurate with their peers…

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We heard it over and over again - the reason Yamamoto was so special and would get paid so much was his age.

Crochet would be a couple years older than Moto, but still much younger than the typical free agent.

You’re right.  There are various factors playing in here.  His age is certainly an Inflator.  For that reason Yamamoto isn’t the worse comp, but he was still a free agent, and that matters too.

a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  Guys take less money than their “perceived market value” to sign early.  
 

getting a guaranteed payday instead of waiting 2-4 years where you could get seriously injured holds tremendous value,  which inherently means more on a case by case basis to the player.  That’s a cost deflator.  And for that reason Yamamoto isn’t the greatest comp.

 

there really isn’t any great comp though.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You’re right.  There are various factors playing in here.  His age is certainly an Inflator.  For that reason Yamamoto isn’t the worse comp, but he was still a free agent, and that matters too.

a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  Guys take less money than their “perceived market value” to sign early.  
 

getting a guaranteed payday instead of waiting 2-4 years where you could get seriously injured holds tremendous value,  which inherently means more on a case by case basis to the player.  That’s a cost deflator.  And for that reason Yamamoto isn’t the greatest comp.

Still disagree.

Comps don't have to line up perfectly to be useful.

This house is identical to that house except for location or damage etc., that house sold for X, so this house should be worth (plug in discount or premium factor) - this is how market values are often estimated.

I think you have to use the info you have.  Yamamoto signed only a year ago so it certainly qualifies as recent data. 

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Still disagree.

Comps don't have to line up perfectly to be useful.

This house is identical to that house except for location or damage etc., that house sold for X, so this house should be worth (plug in discount or premium factor) - this is how market values are often estimated.

I think you have to use the info you have.  Yamamoto signed only a year ago so it certainly qualifies as recent data. 

I disagree even more than you're disagreeing. 

Yamamoto was a free agent, he signed a record contract.  Crochet isn't going to ask for or even get anything close to $325 million. 

Being a free agent at 25 and having 30 teams bid for you vs. being 25 and having to wait two years to hit free agency is not a comp.  It's very different.  Free agency and extensions are very different. 

I'll have more evidence to prove my point when Crochet signs an extension for 1/2 or less than 1/2 the money that Yamamoto got. 

[Old Red]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We heard it over and over again - the reason Yamamoto was so special and would get paid so much was his age.

Crochet would be a couple years older than Moto, but still much younger than the typical free agent.

Yes the Yam Man was special, because of his age, and also because of what he had done in those 897 innings in Japanese baseball. You don’t think what he did in those 897 innings along with his age was why teams were lining up with their checkbooks? What did the Red Sox go on when they signed Masa? Dice K?

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I disagree even more than you're disagreeing. 

Yamamoto was a free agent, he signed a record contract.  Crochet isn't going to ask for or even get anything close to $325 million. 

Being a free agent at 25 and having 30 teams bid for you vs. being 25 and having to wait two years to hit free agency is not a comp.  It's very different.  Free agency and extensions are very different. 

I'll have more evidence to prove my point when Crochet signs an extension for 1/2 or less than 1/2 the money that Yamamoto got. 

Well, I think this misses the point.  The point is that there's a potentially huge payday for Crochet, and that's part of what determines the offer.  

And my proposal was pretty close to yours, so we shouldn't really even be arguing LOL

[Hugh2]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, I think this misses the point.  The point is that there's a potentially huge payday for Crochet, and that's part of what determines the offer.  

And my proposal was pretty close to yours, so we shouldn't really even be arguing LOL

I'm not arguing your arguing. 

[Hugh2]

lol

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes the Yam Man was special, because of his age, and also because of what he had done in those 897 innings in Japanese baseball. You don’t think what he did in those 897 innings along with his age was why teams were lining up with their checkbooks? What did the Red Sox go on when they signed Masa? Dice K?

Of course what he did in Japan was hugely important.  That's not what's being argued.  But Japan is not MLB.

You may have heard of this other fellow named Yoshida...  

[Hugh2]

Crochet is most definitely in for a big payday.  Much less than what he would make if he went to free agency (assuming a clean bill of health OF COURSE) but still large. 

I don't know what that number is.  Probably around 6/150 like I've said (maybe more) but I'd be willing to bet whatever it is will be heavily criticized around here as being too much money. 

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

But 27yo free agents, while far from common, are not unheard of.  It does seem like many pitchers on track to reach free agency that young do extend beforehand, but also sign extensions short enough to still enter the free agent market at an age commensurate with their peers…

This is exactly what many do. They extend to get 1-2 more years of guaranteed money, in case the get hurt or decline, but set it up so they still get their big chance to enter the FA market a reasonable age.

Trying to extend Crochet a bit farther will and should cost more than just 1-2 years of added control.

If we get Crochet to sign a 6 year deal, starting with and buying out the 2025 salary and the 2026 arb year, he'd still be a FA at just age 30. He can still get a hefty desal like Burnes and Fried, assuming he does well and shows durability. Not many pitchers had the chance to sign a 6 year extension at age 25 and still have the opening for an even bigger payday at age 30.

He'll be set for life, even if he ends up sucking and getting no more deals after this one. His downside is that if he's great for the Sox in '25 and '26, he could have signed for way more than what our extension will be, but that the gamle from his perspective.

The Sox, would be taking the bigger risk, of course. If he gets hurt or sucks, we are stuck with a 6 year deal.

[Old Red]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, I think you know what we're getting at.  MLB innings should OBVIOUSLY count for more than innings in Japan.

As I said at the start, this is a rabbit hole.

But claiming Crochet is vastly less proven than Yamamoto is kind of silly IMHO. 

I’ve NEVER said MLB innings shouldn’t count more than the innings in Japan. My main point all along has been Cro Man doesn’t have a big enough resume to ME to warrant the contract at this STAGE as you think he should get. That’s all. Nothing more, or nothing less. Just like I told Moon I’m not saying I’m right, and you’re wrong. We just DISAGREE. You’ve already called me a cheapskate, and I’ll wear that hat proudly. By the way Cro Man has only pitched a total of 363 innings going back to his college days.

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

For performance, MLB certainly should have more weight than Japan.  But what about for durability?

His one injury? 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’ve NEVER said MLB innings shouldn’t count more than the innings in Japan. My main point all along has been Cro Man doesn’t have a big enough resume to ME to warrant the contract at this STAGE as you think he should get. That’s all. Nothing more, or nothing less. Just like I told Moon I’m not saying I’m right, and you’re wrong. We just DISAGREE. You’ve already called me a cheapskate, and I’ll wear that hat proudly. By the way Cro Man has only pitched a total of 363 innings going back to his college days.

To me it's all just jibber jabber to pass the time, Red.  As long as nobody gets pissed off it's all good.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe my $170 million is too high.

But if Crochet takes less than $150 I'll be surprised.  

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’ve NEVER said MLB innings shouldn’t count more than the innings in Japan. My main point all along has been Cro Man doesn’t have a big enough resume to ME to warrant the contract at this STAGE as you think he should get. That’s all. Nothing more, or nothing less. Just like I told Moon I’m not saying I’m right, and you’re wrong. We just DISAGREE. You’ve already called me a cheapskate, and I’ll wear that hat proudly. By the way Cro Man has only pitched a total of 363 innings going back to his college days.

What is the highest offer you would make before deciding to not extend him? 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Of course what he did in Japan was hugely important.  That's not what's being argued.  But Japan is not MLB.

You may have heard of this other fellow named Yoshida...  

I’m not arguing at all that Japanese baseball compares to MLB. I’m just saying what he did in Japan counts. If it didn’t there would be Nothing to go on. If Yam Man didn’t have the stats as good that he did in Japan do think he would have. gotten as big a payday? Same with Masa.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe my $170 million is too high.

But if Crochet takes less than $150 I'll be surprised.  

How many years? 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

How many years? 

My proposal was 4 additional years, so 6 total 2025-2030, with an opt out after 2029.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To me it's all just jibber jabber to pass the time, Red.  As long as nobody gets pissed off it's all good.

Understood. Like I said I wear the cheapskate hat proudly.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My proposal was 4 additional years, so 6 total 2025-2030, with an opt out after 2029.

He's already signed for this year. You could say it's a 5/170 extension and push the CBT back. I don't have an issue signing him for that. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Understood. Like I said I wear the cheapskate hat proudly.

Just be kind and tip your bartender generously. I'm sure you put them through a lot. 😎