Article: BREAKING: Red Sox Trade For White Sox Ace Garrett Crochet

[Bellhorn04]

Extend him right away or wait until he proves himself a little more?

It's a classic baseball economic dilemma.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Crochet was the most-coveted pitcher in baseball, since Yamamoto signed a year ago. Even if his elbow snaps off, there's no way any team is stupid to trade for him right now -- especially giving up only prospects (and not their best prospects or guys they expect to start in the majors this season).

What would be stupid is for a club mired in mediocrity not to attempt to make some major changes... and just keep sitting around hoping a bunch of young prospects not only make the big leagues soon, but all become good enough at the top level all at once to put this brand back on the map.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Crochet was the most-coveted pitcher in baseball, since Yamamoto signed a year ago. Even if his elbow snaps off, there's no way any team is stupid to trade for him right now -- especially giving up only prospects (and not their best prospects or guys they expect to start in the majors this season).

What would be stupid is for a club mired in mediocrity not to attempt to make some major changes... and just keep sitting around hoping a bunch of young prospects not only make the big leagues soon, but all become good enough at the top level all at once to put this brand back on the map.

Right, and that's why Breslow should be commended for doing something bold here.  I think he gets it.

[Larry Cook]

On 12/11/2024 at 2:38 PM, mvp 78 said:

Crochet/Houck is a legit 1-2 punch if he can pitch like he did last year. 

Crochet/bryce miller/houck and that is the beginning of a playoff rotation 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Extend him right away or wait until he proves himself a little more?

It's a classic baseball economic dilemma.

You don't make a trade like this, if you don't believe in the guy. We gotta go with the guy, risk and all.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Extend him right away or wait until he proves himself a little more?

It's a classic baseball economic dilemma.

Make sure he's healthy in ST. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, and that's why Breslow should be commended for doing something bold here.  I think he gets it.

I agree, but we need one more "bold" move- maybe two, and I'm with Hugh and others: we need to take a big FA plunge. The money was there for Soto. We can afford anyone else still on the market- maybe even two.

I'm not a big fan of anyone left, but certainly a few would be a big help.

Burnes at maybe $240M/8: Not only would he gives us a powerful top 3 starters punch, but squeezing Crawford to the pen and spot starter role would be a big plus to another weak area on our team- the pen.

Bregman at maybe $200M/7 only works for me, if we can get Devers to be okay with moving to 1B/DH. I do NOT pay him this money to play 2B.

Teoscar might cost $75M/3 or $95M/4 and would give us the big RHB we need, but we already have a glut of OF'ers. If we could get a decent pitcher for Abreu, or a real good one for Abreu + Arias/Romero, he'd be a better add.

Santander at about $90M/4 or $110M/5 is a nice switch hitter who would be fine in LF.

Flaherty at about $125M/5 might be a second tier FA, but I like him more than Pivetta, and Manaea would cost us a comp pick. Pivetta would surrender the one we have coming, if he signs elsewhere.

Pivetta or Manaea at $70M/3 to $90M/4 would be better than Crawford, but is that kind of money worth a small upgrade? (The comp pick issue, too.) Man-O-man, Kikuchi at $63M/3 looks like a steal, now.

Tanner Scott looks like a long shot signing, since we already signed a closer-type lefty in Chapman, but I'd still love to get this guy for maybe $64M/4

Possibilities:

Alonso at about $$130M/5 works only if we can dump Yoshida or trade Casas and others for a real good pitcher. He's a great RHB, but he'd keep Devers at 3B until he's a DH.

Walker at less money than Alonso might be the better choice, here. Maybe he gets $70M/3 of $90M/4. He plays better D.

Hoffman at maybe $48M/4 might be a good choice, but if he's all we get, I'll be bummed.

Next tier:

Estevez $30M/3, Quintana $22M/2, Buehler $16M/1, Yates $15M/1, Morton $10M/1, Kittredge $16M/1, Jansen $10M/1, Martin $8M/1

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Like I’ve said many times all of the Minor League players are nothing but Suspects till they come up, and produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does. Reality doesn’t always live up to hype, and the Red Sox certainly play up the hype.

I don’t disagree, but conversely you have to take a chance on some of those guys.  You don’t get a Mookie Betts, a Xander Bogaerts, a Dustin Pedroia, or a Duran unless you keep some of your youth.

like I said, it’s about balance.  Having young cost controlled talent means you have the capacity to go out and spend some money in free agency to fill needs, even to the penny pinchers, especially then I suppose

[Tedballgame]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, and IMO, Devers should be moved to 1B, yesterday.

Devers has led American League Third Basemen in errors for 7 straight seasons and Breslow is excited that he is the Red Sox Third Baseman. Yikes!!!

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Devers has led American League Third Basemen in errors for 7 straight seasons and Breslow is excited that he is the Red Sox Third Baseman. Yikes!!!

It'd be much better if Breslow was just tearing him down in the media. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It'd be much better if Breslow was just tearing him down in the media. 

Talk him all you want- just move his ass to 1B.

66 of his 141 errors were throwing. That would be reduced, if he was our 1Bman and eliminated if he DH'd. He's been a minus in DRS, every season, but he has had some pretty steep variances.

-4 to -6 four times

-9 to -13 four times

Even if Devers is no better than Casas at 1B, we break even there and gain at 3B defense by almost anyone else playing there.

[iortiz]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You don't make a trade like this, if you don't believe in the guy. We gotta go with the guy, risk and all.

Bingo!

it’s called common sense. 

They didn’t give up 1 but 3 top ten prospects from the farm. It has to say something, at least in my book. If this guy pitch like he is supposed to pitch, meaning like a legit No. 1 AND stays healthy, his value will go way north. He’s in his mid 20s and entering into his prime. 

I want to believe that they did their due diligence and scouting to make this trade. They can’t be that stupid. 

Extend him already! 

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Bingo!

it’s called common sense. 

They didn’t give up 1 but 3 top ten prospects from the farm. It has to say something, at least in my book. If this guy pitch like he is supposed to pitch, meaning like a legit No. 1 AND stays healthy, his value will go way north. He’s in his mid 20s and entering into his prime. 

I want to believe that they did their due diligence and scouting to make this trade. They can’t be that stupid. 

Extend him already! 

Our advantage in extension talks is this:

1. Crochet is due about $3M for this winter's arb. Give him a hefty signing bonus and or start the extension in 2025 with significantly more than $3M. Let him start living the high life earlier than if he waits to free agency. (His arb, next year won't be a lot of money either.)

2. His lack of long term success and success as a SP'er is not a selling point. Sure, he can bet on himself and wait it out, but there has to be doubts.

3. His injury history is real and a concern, not just to us, but also to him and his agent. Signing an extension guarantees his family a sizeable legacy by taking the sure money.

4. Give him fair money for the 4-6 years beyond the two years of control. Don't short him, despite all of the above. Don't overpay, but don't pull a Lester. Let's say the fair rate is $27.5M/yr x 6. That's $165M + $3M arb +12M arb estimate comes to about $$180M/8. Offer $190M/8 and our AAV for taxes is just $23.75M. Even if we offer $200M/8, it's just $25M AAV.

[mvp 78]

Crochet will get more than 3M in ARB IMO. He should get a decent bump.

[iortiz]

On 12/13/2024 at 10:05 PM, moonslav59 said:

Our advantage in extension talks is this:

1. Crochet is due about $3M for this winter's arb. Give him a hefty signing bonus and or start the extension in 2025 with significantly more than $3M. Let him start living the high life earlier than if he waits to free agency. (His arb, next year won't be a lot of money either.)

2. His lack of long term success and success as a SP'er is not a selling point. Sure, he can bet on himself and wait it out, but there has to be doubts.

3. His injury history is real and a concern, not just to us, but also to him and his agent. Signing an extension guarantees his family a sizeable legacy by taking the sure money.

4. Give him fair money for the 4-6 years beyond the two years of control. Don't short him, despite all of the above. Don't overpay, but don't pull a Lester. Let's say the fair rate is $27.5M/yr x 6. That's $165M + $3M arb +12M arb estimate comes to about $$180M/8. Offer $190M/8 and our AAV for taxes is just $23.75M. Even if we offer $200M/8, it's just $25M AAV.

If that were the offer, I would do it before the season start and probably he would even take something around 150/6 (starting in 27), but again it has to be before the season starts. 

[moonslav59]

On 12/14/2024 at 5:44 AM, mvp 78 said:

Crochet will get more than 3M in ARB IMO. He should get a decent bump.

$3M is the cots estimate, for what that is worth. I think his previous inaction factors into the numbers. Also, he was not a SP'er, before this season. Maybe he gets $4-5M?