Red Sox Showing Interest in Walker Buehler

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's too long a shot for me.

Depends on the $$$. At worst, he’s the 5. He’s a #2 ceiling. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Depends on the $$$. At worst, he’s the 5. He’s a #2 ceiling. 

I get that, and agree, but the chance he spends more than half the season on the IL is too high for me, and I think higher than other choices, still out there.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get that, and agree, but the chance he spends more than half the season on the IL is too high for me, and I think higher than other choices, still out there.

If he’s on the IL, his career is over. However, Flaherty’s back issues are more likely to bring intermittent IL stints and unproductive stretches every season.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not convinced we spend big, this winter, too. I have repeatedly said I need to see actions and not hear talk. That being said, you seem so sure we will not.  We have come up short on many FAs, so far, and that may happen with the rest we bid on, going forward. I get that. We may reach a point, where we feel desperate enough to up our "final offer" to get a prize. Maybe not.

On Abreu, I think you are under valuing a Gold Glove OF'er with 5 years of control, who is still pre-arb. On the platoon aspect, I agree, but he is on the big end of a platoon and gets 450 PAs over a season. That is a significant amount of offense brought to table. He's only 25 and may improve vs LHPs, but he has a long way to go to respectability, there. His career OPS vs LHPs is bench-worthy, to date (.516.) His numbers vs RHPs is more than respectable (.842.)

His 650 PA line vs LHPs: .277 22 94 with a .347 OBP and .495 SLG.

My suggestion was Abreu plus others (maybe Crawford) for a decent SP'er or quality RP or a RHB like himself. Hell, Crawford is a decent SP'er, already. I think Crawford + Abreu gets us a #3 SP or a really good RP'er. You don't. Okay.

Maybe Abreu, DHam and Romero get us a very helpful piece.

i would just sign Bueller on a 1-2 yr deal. He should be affordable even to Ebenezer Henry and at least has a track record.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Depends on the $$$. At worst, he’s the 5. He’s a #2 ceiling. 

Buehler?

 

At worst, he’s a 3 time Tommy John victim that does nothing but collect fat paychecks for not pitching.

 

Probably a more likely outcome than that #2 thingy you said…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If he’s on the IL, his career is over. However, Flaherty’s back issues are more likely to bring intermittent IL stints and unproductive stretches every season.

Good point, and I have mentioned Flaherty as a target. 

I'm not sure who we can view as the most reliable. The scary thought might be Pivetta.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i would just sign Bueller on a 1-2 yr deal. He should be affordable even to Ebenezer Henry and at least has a track record.

The estimates are over $15M/1. Yes, JH would love the one year aspect of that offer, but $15M takes away a big chunk of the winter AAV budget.

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Good point, and I have mentioned Flaherty as a target. 

I'm not sure who we can view as the most reliable. The scary thought might be Pivetta.

Pass on Pivetta. Just go with what we have IMO.

[Randy Red Sox]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Um, that plus very very solid career numbers?

Reg season 713.2 IP 3.27 ERA 1.09 WHIP 

Postseason 94.2 IP 3.04 ERA 1.15 WHIP

Let's be clear, the dude can pitch.  We're not talking about a Garrett Richards type here. 

 

sadly we are likely wasting our time even hoping for Buehler. Sox will probably just sign Means and call it a day on the rotation.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not convinced we spend big, this winter, too. I have repeatedly said I need to see actions and not hear talk. That being said, you seem so sure we will not.  We have come up short on many FAs, so far, and that may happen with the rest we bid on, going forward. I get that. We may reach a point, where we feel desperate enough to up our "final offer" to get a prize. Maybe not.

On Abreu, I think you are under valuing a Gold Glove OF'er with 5 years of control, who is still pre-arb. On the platoon aspect, I agree, but he is on the big end of a platoon and gets 450 PAs over a season. That is a significant amount of offense brought to table. He's only 25 and may improve vs LHPs, but he has a long way to go to respectability, there. His career OPS vs LHPs is bench-worthy, to date (.516.) His numbers vs RHPs is more than respectable (.842.)

His 650 PA line vs LHPs: .277 22 94 with a .347 OBP and .495 SLG.

My suggestion was Abreu plus others (maybe Crawford) for a decent SP'er or quality RP or a RHB like himself. Hell, Crawford is a decent SP'er, already. I think Crawford + Abreu gets us a #3 SP or a really good RP'er. You don't. Okay.

Maybe Abreu, DHam and Romero get us a very helpful piece.

i like Abreu and actually think he is worth more to the Sox than he would be in a trade.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i like Abreu and actually think he is worth more to the Sox than he would be in a trade.

Why?

We are lefty heavy- bigtime.

Our OF and OF depth is our strongest area on the 26, 40 and system as a whole. 

The step from Abreu to Anthony or Campbell could actually be a step up.

Now, this assumes Rafaela is the FT CF'er, and I could see wanting Anthony in CF and Abreu in RF vs RHPs over Rafaela in CF, but we can also play Campbell in the OF or use Ref in LF and Duran in CF vs LHPs, and alternate Anthony in CF and RF, accordingly.

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela, Duran, Anthony, Campbell

RF: Abreu, Anthony, Campbell, Ref (in short RF parks)

We also have JH Garcia and Bleis in the pipeline.

To me, our OF is one area we can afford to trade a player away, and it should be a LHB.

If we sign Santander or Teoscar, we could trade Abreu and Rafaela and still have this:

LF: Teoscar/Santander & Ref

CF: Duran (Campbell)

RF: Anthony (Campbell)

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The estimates are over $15M/1. Yes, JH would love the one year aspect of that offer, but $15M takes away a big chunk of the winter AAV budget.

What’s their budget #?

[mvp 78]

I don’t care that they were lefty heavy. Story is back. Rafaela should be better. Campbell will be up. Casas and Raffy don’t have split concerns.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don’t care that they were lefty heavy. Story is back. Rafaela should be better. Campbell will be up. Casas and Raffy don’t have split concerns.

We are more lefty heavy than other clubs. My point was that he has higher value with other clubs than us- not that he has little value to us.

Now, RF D is important in BOS, so in that sense, he is more valuable to us, but I see Anthony as being a plus defender, too.

A Duran-Rafaela-Anthony D would be buttah.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

37 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

sadly we are likely wasting our time even hoping for Buehler. Sox will probably just sign Means and call it a day on the rotation.

If so, John is just a Means to a beginning... of Spring Training.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Buehler?

 

At worst, he’s a 3 time Tommy John victim that does nothing but collect fat paychecks for not pitching.

 

Probably a more likely outcome than that #2 thingy you said…

Lots of 3 time TJS guys are there?

[Hugh2]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The estimates are over $15M/1. Yes, JH would love the one year aspect of that offer, but $15M takes away a big chunk of the winter AAV budget.

Year after year these estimates for pitching are very wrong.  Heck the hitting side too.  Not always but more often than not.

Buehler isn’t getting a 1 year deal in this market.  He’s probably getting 3-4 (lower AAV) with an opt out after a year, or something like that.nobody said Fried would get over $200, heck most people didn’t even think he could get over $160.  
Burnes will get well over $200 as well.  Pivetta is probably looking at $60 million plus right now too.

year after year we say things like “this guy is overpaid” according to whom? Not attacking you Moon but just thinking aloud here. Who determines what these guys should be paid? If you ask me, it’s the market. Something is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it.

and the reality is the market for pitching is just high.  There’s a reason budgets are blowing up, more teams are going over the LT.

the LT goes up this year and next and I speculate by the time someone like Burnes is off his next deal the first threshold could easily be as high as $300 million. 
 

the crochet deal was nice, but we can only make so many of those trades.  Eventually John Henry and his loyal fans will have to get over their phobia of signing pitchers to long term contract. 
 

if you want the same chance as upside with price.  Buehler is your guy.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

year after year we say things like “this guy is overpaid” according to whom? Not attacking you Moon but just thinking aloud here. Who determines what these guys should be paid? If you ask me, it’s the market. Something is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it.

I understand what you're saying, but "worth" is a very, very fuzzy word here.  Sometimes people overpay for things simply because they're uninformed, stupid or whatever.

Yoshida wasn't worth his contract for example, and reportedly a lot of people in baseball said so at the time.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR makes estimates that are pretty close to being true. This year, they have underestimated, a lot, but many by just a little ($1M AAV or so.) They have been pretty close on years, too, but have been off by 1 less year, several times.

These are their projections for remaining FA pitchers. (My guess in parenthesis)

SP:

$200M/7 Burnes  ($248/8)

$115/5 Flaherty ($115/4)

$24M/2 Heany ($30M/3)

$21M/1 Pivetta ($72M/4)

$20M/2 Quintana ($22M/2)

$16M/1 Scherzer ($17M/1)

$15M/1 Buehler ($16M/1)

$13M/1 Gibson ($14M/1)

$12M/1 Verlander & Sugano ($13M/1)

$12M/2 Ogasawra ($20M/3)

Not estimated: (Cobb got $15M/1) Morton ($12M/1) Lynn ($10M/1) 

RP:

$56M/4 Scott ($75M/5)

$44M/4 Hoffman ($60M/5)

$27M/3 Estevez ($40M/4)

$16M/2 Minter ($21M/3)

$14M/1 Yates ($22M/2)

$14M/2 Soroka & Kittredge ($15M/2)

$13M/2 Kahnle ($14M/2)

$11M/1 Robertson ($12M/1)

Not estimated: (Chapman got $11M/1) Junis (18M/2) Jansen ($10M/1) Martin & Sewald ($9M/1) 

[Bellhorn04]

The market has become incredibly hard to predict.  Last year what happened with the Boras Four was totally bizarre.

This year the money has been flowing so far, but you never know when it will dry up. 

Because we really have no clue what each team's budget is.  And most of the big spenders have luxury tax issues to consider.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The market has become incredibly hard to predict.  Last year what happened with the Boras Four was totally bizarre.

This year the money has been flowing so far, but you never know when it will dry up. 

Because we really have no clue what each team's budget is.  And most of the big spenders have luxury tax issues to consider.

Maybe JH is hoping we can swoop in on the leftovers and find some bargains. We all thought Monty was "that guy," last year, but that did not go as expected.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe JH is hoping we can swoop in on the leftovers and find some bargains. We all thought Monty was "that guy," last year, but that did not go as expected.

Last year, at the start of the offseason, Montgomery was one of the guys we thought was a potential target.  But he wasn't the only one.  I wanted Gray, and then Imanaga.  I think you also wanted Gray.  It wasn't until Snell and Montgomery were the only two guys of any consequence left, and in the context of our only signing being Giolito, we all started to howl for Montgomery as the last realistic option.

That's how I remember it, anyway.

  

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Last year, at the start of the offseason, Montgomery was one of the guys we thought was a potential target.  But he wasn't the only one.  I wanted Gray, and then Imanaga.  I think you also wanted Gray.  It wasn't until Snell and Montgomery were the only two guys of any consequence left, and in the context of our only signing being Giolito, we all started to howl for Montgomery as the last realistic option.

That's how I remember it, anyway.

  

Yes, I wanted Gray, because I thought the shorter term was something JH might go for. I also liked Monty, early and more so later.

I was high on Imanaga and Seth Lugo from the start- perhaps more so than anyone else. I liked Wacha, too.

Monty became the main choice, as he was the last man standing, and that ended up being a disaster.

Quite a few of the mid-range guys turned out okay to good. I remember Stroham vs Gio debates occurred, and although Stroman did not do all that well, he might have got us into the playoffs over the Gio choice. Our pen would have been spared a bunch of innings and "pen games."

These are all the deals between $14M and $25M AAV.

$80M/4 ERod- bad, so far

$75M/3 Gray- very good signing

$62M/3 Snell (opt out) Good signing

$53M/4 Imanaga- a steal, so far

$45M/3 Lugo- a steal

$39M/2 Giolito- the worst of the mid-rangers

$37M/2 Stroman- not good, but not bad

$32M/2 Wacha- nice signing

$28M/2 Manaea- nice (opted out)

$25M/1 w vesting 2nd year Montgomery- as bad as Gio

$16M/1 Montas- ok

$14M/1 Flaherty- very nice

12 deals: 3 Bad, 2 okay or decent, 3-4 nice and 4-5 very nice

I think that was a rare winter.

[notin]

19 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i like Abreu and actually think he is worth more to the Sox than he would be in a trade.

I’d agree but for the potential of Roman Anthony.

The Sox could accommodate both if they dealt/benched Rafaela, but that just makes them even more left-handed…

[notin]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Lots of 3 time TJS guys are there?

 None.  The only pitcher to return after his third TJS was Johnny Venters, and his return was brief and ineffective.

If Buehler has another procedure, his career is likely over…

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d agree but for the potential of Roman Anthony.

The Sox could accommodate both if they dealt/benched Rafaela, but that just makes them even more left-handed…

Agreed, but Rafaela's offense looks so bad, I'm not sure counting him as a RHB is worth mentioning. (He also has reverse career splits in 2024; .610 v L and .684 v R)

With Anthony in the mix, who does not have split issues in the minors, we could do this:

LF: Duran v R/ Refsnyder v L

CF: Anthony v R/ Duran v L

RF: Abreu v R/Anthony v L

This is better than anything with Rafaela, and the D is really good, too, despite Rafaela's superior D.

Trading Abreu creates this nice set-up, too, and Abreu should bring back a much nicer return than Rafaela would.

LF: Duran v R/ Ref vs L

CF: Rafaela v R/Duran v L (Rafaela plays reverse splits)

RF: Anthony 

 

[Behindenemylines]

Buehler on a short prove me contract would be a get for the Sox. I think he turned the corner on his comeback in the playoffs. He has big game experience and i think would be a positive in a Sox playoff push in 2025. It's still Burns as first choice, but Buehler is my second choice of the remaining FA starters.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, Behindenemylines said:

Buehler on a short prove me contract would be a get for the Sox. I think he turned the corner on his comeback in the playoffs. He has big game experience and i think would be a positive in a Sox playoff push in 2025. It's still Burns as first choice, but Buehler is my second choice of the remaining FA starters.

i don't know what it would take to get Buehler, but i would rather have spent the money on him than a rehabbing Sandoval.

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i don't know what it would take to get Buehler, but i would rather have spent the money on him than a rehabbing Sandoval.

Same.  But I'm getting very used to being disappointed by this front office. 

[notin]

On 12/14/2024 at 5:04 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

sadly we are likely wasting our time even hoping for Buehler. Sox will probably just sign Means and call it a day on the rotation.

What’s the difference between Buehler and Means? They’re one year apart in age, and both injured all the time.  Buehler is slightly healthier (which isn’t saying much), but Means is a better pitcher…