Red Sox Showing Interest in Walker Buehler

[harmony]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Show me where you ever said a Sox player's value went up, or where you liked a Sox player more than BTV valued them at.

I'm only addressing your views on Sox players as almost always less than the more or less objective BTV site.

You seem to only use fWAR and WAR projections, when it makes a Sox player look worse than we appear to think they are, but never when it comes out making them look valuable. That is my point.

I think you do okay valuing your own players objectively, and you recognize hos park factors make your pitchers look better, in some stats, than they really are, and how batters might look worse.

I totally understand how you are often just trying to show Sox fans how they are thinking their players are better than they might really be.

Specific examples?

Feedback is welcome.

This poster holds Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello in higher regard than many posters on this forum.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, harmony said:

Specific examples?

Feedback is welcome.

This poster holds Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello in higher regard than many posters on this forum.

Everytime we suggest a trade, you claim who you have is better. That leads me to believe you think you have better players or options at every position. Who would you give us for Bello or Crawford? Would you give Miller or Woo for even both combined?

[harmony]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Everytime we suggest a trade, you claim who you have is better. That leads me to believe you think you have better players or options at every position. Who would you give us for Bello or Crawford? Would you give Miller or Woo for even both combined?

Those irrelevant hypotheticals ignore the needs of each team.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, harmony said:

Those irrelevant hypotheticals ignore the needs of each team.

On a value level, yes or no?

Your answer can set me straight or keep me wondering.

[Jasonbay44]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Ok, but I’d rather have Buehler than Cooper Criswell out there nearly every fifth day.

 

Of course signing Buehler does give the Sox a chance at both scenarios..

I would prefer if Criswell wasn’t an option to start at all. He should be nothing more than a depth piece, regardless of if Buehler is signed or not.  

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I would prefer if Criswell wasn’t an option to start at all. He should be nothing more than a depth piece, regardless of if Buehler is signed or not.  

With the trade for Crochet, Criswell automatically starts in WOO and is only called up if there's an injury. 

[Larry Cook]

Buehler looking for a multi year deal with opt outs! I think we can be creative and help him out! 

[moonslav59]

If Buehler didn't have those nice 10 IP in the WS, would we even be talking about him?

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If Buehler didn't have those nice 10 IP in the WS, would we even be talking about him?

Teams are desperate for pitching. I am sure we would be talking to him sooner or later. 
those post season innings only means we are talking about him sooner rather than later 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

Teams are desperate for pitching. I am sure we would be talking to him sooner or later. 
those post season innings only means we are talking about him sooner rather than later 

I'm done with injury-prone signings for a few more years.

[Larry Cook]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm done with injury-prone signings for a few more years.

There are only 3 types of pitchers in the world! Healthy pitchers, injured pitchers and rehabbing pitchers!!!!! 
 

I think the chances of running into injury prone pitchers is rising every year maybe even exponentially 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

There are only 3 types of pitchers in the world! Healthy pitchers, injured pitchers and rehabbing pitchers!!!!! 
 

I think the chances of running into injury prone pitchers is rising every year maybe even exponentially 

We've signed way more than our share of recently-injured pitchers.

[Larry Cook]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We've signed way more than our share of recently-injured pitchers.

Aren’t those the the type leftovers  in the garbage bin????

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Aren’t those the the type leftovers  in the garbage bin????

Kluber, Richards and Paxton all were once very good to great pitchers, at one point. Kluber even looked pretty good, the year before we signed him.

I understand signing anyone can be a risk, but why seek out the greatest ones?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Remaining free agent starting pitchers must be waiting for Burnes to sign and for desperate teams to up bids for the leftovers. Otherwise, what's the hold-up, Breslow? 

Red Sox fans aren't being impatient when noting that they offered one guy $700 million that he turned down, they gave a reliever almost $11 mil, and the CBO keeps saying they want another starter...

Assuming Henry won't risk another $200 million on an over-30 pitcher, the viable choices are Manaea, Buehler or Pivetta -- unless Boston prefers to part with more young talent in another trade.

Pittsburgh is reportedly listening to offers on Jared Jones, among others. Who would he cost, and is it worth it to lose another top prospect or four? What would be fair value (they're not my bodies) to set up and solidify the Sox' rotation for maybe the next half decade... Jones is 23.  

[Bellhorn04]

On 12/12/2024 at 8:17 PM, moonslav59 said:

If Buehler didn't have those nice 10 IP in the WS, would we even be talking about him?

Um, that plus very very solid career numbers?

Reg season 713.2 IP 3.27 ERA 1.09 WHIP 

Postseason 94.2 IP 3.04 ERA 1.15 WHIP

Let's be clear, the dude can pitch.  We're not talking about a Garrett Richards type here. 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Um, that plus very very solid career numbers?

Reg season 713.2 IP 3.27 ERA 1.09 WHIP 

Postseason 94.2 IP 3.04 ERA 1.15 WHIP

Let's be clear, the dude can pitch.  We're not talking about a Garrett Richards type here. 

 

On another thread, I compared the last 3 and 5 years of Buehler, Richards and Kluber. Tell me who was better and worse by those numbers.

Yes, the age factor is big and in Buehler's favor, but the guy has barely pitched in 3 seasons. Sure, he could pull a Sale, and I would like him as Starter depth, but I do not think paying a $16-17M AAV is the way we need to go on filling a rotation slot for 2025. We need someone with better hopes on durability and IP.

That's all I'm saying.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

On another thread, I compared the last 3 and 5 years of Buehler, Richards and Kluber. Tell me who was better and worse by those numbers.

Yes, the age factor is big and in Buehler's favor, but the guy has barely pitched in 3 seasons. Sure, he could pull a Sale, and I would like him as Starter depth, but I do not think paying a $16-17M AAV is the way we need to go on filling a rotation slot for 2025. We need someone with better hopes on durability and IP.

That's all I'm saying.

Or we could pay him even less -- say, 10 million -- as long as he agrees to just work out, rehab and not pitch until after the All-Star break! He'd be better than any Buehler we could get in the offseason, who'd prob burn out the bullpen by spitting up innings early.

(sorry for the post of christmas past)

[moonslav59]

I'm done pinning hopes on guys with so few IP in the last 2-3 years, due to injury.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm done pinning hopes on guys with so few IP in the last 2-3 years, due to injury.

it worked out for ATL last year.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Remaining free agent starting pitchers must be waiting for Burnes to sign and for desperate teams to up bids for the leftovers. Otherwise, what's the hold-up, Breslow? 

Red Sox fans aren't being impatient when noting that they offered one guy $700 million that he turned down, they gave a reliever almost $11 mil, and the CBO keeps saying they want another starter...

Assuming Henry won't risk another $200 million on an over-30 pitcher, the viable choices are Manaea, Buehler or Pivetta -- unless Boston prefers to part with more young talent in another trade.

Pittsburgh is reportedly listening to offers on Jared Jones, among others. Who would he cost, and is it worth it to lose another top prospect or four? What would be fair value (they're not my bodies) to set up and solidify the Sox' rotation for maybe the next half decade... Jones is 23.  

Cohen may not be in on the Burnes bidding, but there may be another GM out there that simply will not be outbid on him. I doubt that guy is Brez-JH, but I'm leaning towards really hoping he is.

I know it's a big risk. I know he showed some signs of decline, already. The gap between Burnes and Flaherty/Manaea/Pivetta is too big.

If we really want to go bold, as the Soto bidding indicated, we could go Burnes and Bregman and trade Abreu & Crawford for a decent RP'er and Catcher.

C: _____, Wong (Narvaez)

1B & DH: Devers & Casas (Yoshida-Refsnyder)

2B: Campbell (DHam-Grissom, Rafaela)

SS: Story (Romy, Rafaela, Mayer)

3B: Bregman (Devers, Romy, Campbell, Grissom)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela (Duran)

RF: Anthony (Refsnyder)

SP: Burnes, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito (Criswell, Fulmer, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins)

RP: ______, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson

(Fulmer, Guerrero, Bernardino, Penrod, Shugart, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, Campbell, Mata.)

This looks like a contender, to me. I realize the AAV his higher than Soto, but I think we can do this and still be under the tax line or barely over it. If we can save $4-6M by trading Yoshida, we can be under and have a more balanced and flexible 26 man roster.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

it worked out for ATL last year.

It's too long a shot for me.

I was done with Sale, too. I understood the Grissom-Sale trade. It back-fired, spectacularly, but I'm not basing future moves on the one in a hundred that worked out for ATL.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/11/2024 at 9:32 AM, moonslav59 said:

Everytime we suggest a trade, you claim who you have is better. That leads me to believe you think you have better players or options at every position. Who would you give us for Bello or Crawford? Would you give Miller or Woo for even both combined?

the only trade the Sox will be making will either be one where we are shedding salary or two where we will NOT be adding significant salary.

[notin]

Buehler is the solution for people who don't think Flaherty gets injured often enough... 

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm done pinning hopes on guys with so few IP in the last 2-3 years, due to injury.

So you're not excited about the announcement that Fulmer might be returning to SP?

 

 

(I assume they mean in Worcester.)

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

So you're not excited about the announcement that Fulmer might be returning to SP?

That type of signing is what I want to avoid, for a while, anyway.

In some ways, Crochet is an injury risk, too- maybe more than the average.

I know Gio was supposed to be "that guy," but I'd still rather go with someone who has not been hurt more times than not, in the last 2-3 years.

You may disagree with my position, but you should at least understand where I'm coming from. Afterall, we were a couple of the very few who saw merit in the Sale trade, and still understand why it was made..

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the only trade the Sox will be making will either be one where we are shedding salary or two where we will NOT be adding significant salary.

I disagree. 

We could trade Abreu for a RHB or pitcher with or without adding significant salary.

We have budget space and showed a willingness to bid $700M for Soto, so it is not a stretch to think we may trade for salary, like Castillo, Lopez or Arenado.

Hell, we may still sign Burnes, Bregman, Teoscar, Santander or Flaherty. Maybe another pen arm, too.

I would also not be surprised to see us do nothing more major, in terms of adding salary, but my position is we just don't know.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I disagree. 

We could trade Abreu for a RHB or pitcher with or without adding significant salary.

We have budget space and showed a willingness to bid $700M for Soto, so it is not a stretch to think we may trade for salary, like Castillo, Lopez or Arenado.

Hell, we may still sign Burnes, Bregman, Teoscar, Santander or Flaherty. Maybe another pen arm, too.

I would also not be surprised to see us do nothing more major, in terms of adding salary, but my position is we just don't know.

you are way over-valuing Abreu. IMO.  He is a nice platoon player but likely wouldn't return anything more than a decent reliever or back of the rotation SP of which we have several already. I don't care how much we apparently offered Soto but most reports say we were not close to getting him. Likely our offer was simply to drive up the cost for the 2 NY teams.

To date this offseason the Sox have done nothing to convince me that Henry's goal of keeping the payroll down has changed at all. Only a Burnes signing could change my view. Not advocating for that -just using it as an example. Crochet was a great add {at a significant cost} but he is only at 3 million in 2025 and still arbitration eligible for 1 yr after that.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you are way over-valuing Abreu. IMO.  He is a nice platoon player but likely wouldn't return anything more than a decent reliever or back of the rotation SP of which we have several already. I don't care how much we apparently offered Soto but most reports say we were not close to getting him. Likely our offer was simply to drive up the cost for the 2 NY teams.

To date this offseason the Sox have done nothing to convince me that Henry's goal of keeping the payroll down has changed at all. Only a Burnes signing could change my view. Not advocating for that -just using it as an example. Crochet was a great add {at a significant cost} but he is only at 3 million in 2025 and still arbitration eligible for 1 yr after that.

I'm not convinced we spend big, this winter, too. I have repeatedly said I need to see actions and not hear talk. That being said, you seem so sure we will not.  We have come up short on many FAs, so far, and that may happen with the rest we bid on, going forward. I get that. We may reach a point, where we feel desperate enough to up our "final offer" to get a prize. Maybe not.

On Abreu, I think you are under valuing a Gold Glove OF'er with 5 years of control, who is still pre-arb. On the platoon aspect, I agree, but he is on the big end of a platoon and gets 450 PAs over a season. That is a significant amount of offense brought to table. He's only 25 and may improve vs LHPs, but he has a long way to go to respectability, there. His career OPS vs LHPs is bench-worthy, to date (.516.) His numbers vs RHPs is more than respectable (.842.)

His 650 PA line vs LHPs: .277 22 94 with a .347 OBP and .495 SLG.

My suggestion was Abreu plus others (maybe Crawford) for a decent SP'er or quality RP or a RHB like himself. Hell, Crawford is a decent SP'er, already. I think Crawford + Abreu gets us a #3 SP or a really good RP'er. You don't. Okay.

Maybe Abreu, DHam and Romero get us a very helpful piece.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you are way over-valuing Abreu. IMO.  He is a nice platoon player but likely wouldn't return anything more than a decent reliever or back of the rotation SP of which we have several already. I don't care how much we apparently offered Soto but most reports say we were not close to getting him. Likely our offer was simply to drive up the cost for the 2 NY teams.

To date this offseason the Sox have done nothing to convince me that Henry's goal of keeping the payroll down has changed at all. Only a Burnes signing could change my view. Not advocating for that -just using it as an example. Crochet was a great add {at a significant cost} but he is only at 3 million in 2025 and still arbitration eligible for 1 yr after that.

I think you undervalue Abreu, who was a 3 WAR Gold Glove-winning outfielder who makes minimum wage. 
 

A good match is the Pirates, who have made Mitch Keller available and who Roster Resource lists with 29yo Rule 5 (2023) draft pick Joshua Palacios as their starting RF.  Abreu definitely fits a need, and more important, is in their price range.

Of course BTV doesn’t like this trade. Their model says Pittsburgh needs to add about $10mill in surplus value.

I would do it straight up.  But I wouldn’t be averse to helping their salary limitation by taking back Pudgy David Bednar (who was awful last year) in hopes of a rebound.   I’d even throw in Zack Kelly…