Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I do think the age benefit might get overplayed just a wee bit in some cases...Soto is young but he's also played a lot of MLB games, been through the grind of long seasons, hasn't missed many games...all that might age you just a bit in itself.  

It's true, even for elite athletes. For every Rickey Henderson still stealing 30 bases in his 40s (there was one Rickey), there are probably hundreds or even thousands of fast guys who went from zipping in their 20s to slipping in their 30s to tripping in their 40s (it's the being part of human).

I wasn't elite but semi-fleet, and still swiped some bags in adult leagues. But everyone I played with or against agreed that every time we hit the ground -- whether it was sliding or diving on defense... or just falling down -- it would take two or three days for our aging bodies to recover. And we only played a couple games a week.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Right, so there’s a few examples of elite players here and there, still makes it rare.  And yet, even in those examples said player is 28 or older, not 26.  Hence, one of the reasons Soto is so different.  Guys typically hit FA in the middle to the end of their primes….not at the very beginning of it.

Agreed.

Soto will be 26 for the full 2025 season. That is still "pre-Prime." Then, he has 5 years of "Prime" at ages 27-31. That's 6, total, before we may start seeing some decline. My guess is the decline will be slow, and his ages 32-34 seasons will be very good, and 35-36 decent. He may even be okay from 37-39 or 40.

 

[drewski6]

My thinking is that by Sotos age 35 season +, inflation will make whatever AAV he has for the last few years not look like an albatross even if some regression.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My thinking is that by Sotos age 35 season +, inflation will make whatever AAV he has for the last few years not look like an albatross even if some regression.

Depends what rate of inflation we assume, of course.  

To be brutally frank about it, if you're paying a guy $45 million a year and the last 3-4 years of the contract he's useless, that's gonna be an albatross under any reasonable estimate of inflation.

We could look at the AAV assessment on Ohtani's contract.  The AAV is about 2/3 of what it would be with no deferrals. $70 = $46.

So they have calculated that $45 million paid in 10 years would have a present value of about $30 million. 

[Bellhorn04]

You can also look at Mike Trout's present status.  I'd say he has officially become an albatross, barring a remarkable return to health.  (Which is a shame, I hasten to add.)  Baseball just seems to be much harder on the body than we want to give it credit for.   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can also look at Mike Trout's present status.  I'd say he has officially become an albatross, barring a remarkable return to health.  (Which is a shame, I hasten to add.)  Baseball just seems to be much harder on the body than we want to give it credit for.   

Probably because all other team sports regularly feature humans slamming into other humans as hard as they can -- as part of the game. 

Baseball, on the other hand (femur, acl, thorax, etc), has actually made recent rules to avoid such collisions.

But you're right about baseball being hard on the body. Pitching or just throwing a ball overhand is a motion unnatural to the anatomy. And so for baseball players -- especially the bigger, stronger, faster modern types -- the threat of significant injury exists merely from participating.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

My thinking is that by Sotos age 35 season +, inflation will make whatever AAV he has for the last few years not look like an albatross even if some regression.

I agree, but it is hard to predict how players age. Soto seems like he could hit .800 in his sleep or using a walker.

Just get it done!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You can also look at Mike Trout's present status.  I'd say he has officially become an albatross, barring a remarkable return to health.  (Which is a shame, I hasten to add.)  Baseball just seems to be much harder on the body than we want to give it credit for.   

Trout is the scary warning sign example.

He played in 157-159 games four years in a row from age 21-24. There was no indication of future injury issues, except maybe that he played the CF position hard.

From age 25 on, here are the most games played in descending order:

140 (age 26)

134 (27)

119 (30)

114 (25)

82 (31)

53, 36, 29

GOD! That is frighteningly ugly!

[notin]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trout is the scary warning sign example.

He played in 157-159 games four years in a row from age 21-24. There was no indication of future injury issues, except maybe that he played the CF position hard.

From age 25 on, here are the most games played in descending order:

140 (age 26)

134 (27)

119 (30)

114 (25)

82 (31)

53, 36, 29

GOD! That is frighteningly ugly!

How much of that physical decline is Trout’s stubborn and ridiculous insistence that he’s a center fielder, an attitude that has made him rebuff multiple attempts to move him to the corner OF.  I don’t think he even DH’d last year and that’s an option now for him with Ohtani across town…

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

How much of that physical decline is Trout’s stubborn and ridiculous insistence that he’s a center fielder, an attitude that has made him rebuff multiple attempts to move him to the corner OF.  I don’t think he even DH’d last year and that’s an option now for him with Ohtani across town…

How much safer is corner OF than CF?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How much safer is corner OF than CF?

Mookie's going to carry a bowling pin in his back pocket the next time he plays in Yankee Stadium.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How much safer is corner OF than CF?

Probably quite a bit over the way Trout plays CF.

Especially when he spent seasons flanked by defensive sloths like Justin Upton and Kole Calhoun and tried to make up for their lack of range.

Reportedly the Angels did try to move him and install Brandon Marsh in CF, but Trout wouldn’t budge and eventually Marsh was dealt away for Logan O’Hoppe…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How much safer is corner OF than CF?

Not that much.

DH might not even be safe for this china doll.

[Bellhorn04]

You guys are brutal.  He's got a torn meniscus.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You guys are brutal.  He's got a torn meniscus.

We didn't tear it!!!!

Honest!

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/26/2024 at 6:09 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

If they let us down this time, we'll all be ballistic.

like our absentee owner will give a hoot.  having said that I am sure we will sign a mid level SP and a decent but not a top reliever.

[Hitch]

I'd take Trout in a heartbeat if he agreed to play solely DH and Angles paid down a fair bit of his money owed and took Yoshida. 

 

None of these things are possible. 

[Bellhorn04]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We didn't tear it!!!!

Honest!

The Soto contract will be about 50% riskier than the Trout contract.

The truth is, it stands an excellent chance of becoming a monster albatross in 5 years or so, with Soto becoming a subject of abuse like Trout is now.  Soto will get an injury or two and everyone will be clamoring to move him to DH.  He'll be untradeable without eating a pile of money, of course. 

Signing him would probably be a horrible move in the long run.  Not that I'll complain if it happens.  Not that it's likely to happen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Soto contract will be about 50% riskier than the Trout contract.

The truth is, it stands an excellent chance of becoming a monster albatross in 5 years or so, with Soto becoming a subject of abuse like Trout is now.  Soto will get an injury or two and everyone will be clamoring to move him to DH. 

Signing him would probably be a horrible move in the long run.  Not that I'll complain if it happens.  Not that it's likely to happen.

What is more likely is that Soto signs with a NY team and Boston immediately overpays for Fried.

That would be a horrible move if -- and I'm sure Brez and Co. know this -- the Sox don't improve the infield defense. So the corresponding dominoes will be signing a third baseman, and trading Casas for pitching.

If they also lose out on Fried, expect another overpay for Burnes, a reliever, and Teoscar... and Devers stays at third for another year.

In either scenario, eating Yoshida's contract and trading Abreu for more pitching (and to make room for Anthony) are also likely.

I don't expect Brez to also sign a #2, as they will also be overpays, if Kikuchi's contract is any portent. They will try to add another starter in a trade. Any leftover budget will be spent on more relievers and a back-up catcher.

[Bellhorn04]

And if they miss out on both Soto and Fried they're going to look like tools, again.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And if they miss out on both Soto and Fried they're going to look like tools, again.

That's why they have to overpay for Fried, which is going to kill John Henry -- but it may make a really interesting winter, as Brez will then have to rely on some major trades after that.

Unfortunately, that will preclude also signing Jack Flaherty and reuniting the old Harvard Westlake rotation... and that means no Jon Lovitz reprising his role from League of Their Own (he also went to their high school).

[Duran Is The Man]

31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And if they miss out on both Soto and Fried they're going to look like tools, again.

you know this is exactly what is going to happen. i have no doubt.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Soto contract will be about 50% riskier than the Trout contract.

The truth is, it stands an excellent chance of becoming a monster albatross in 5 years or so, with Soto becoming a subject of abuse like Trout is now.  Soto will get an injury or two and everyone will be clamoring to move him to DH.  He'll be untradeable without eating a pile of money, of course. 

Signing him would probably be a horrible move in the long run.  Not that I'll complain if it happens.  Not that it's likely to happen.

There is certainly a very high risk, and at double money anyone gets, it would spell DOUBLE TROUBLE, if he declines, significantly after 5 years. The Trout and Pujols contracts scare me, too.

We'd also be hearing how we could have had Betts for half the money.

I see the value in spreading the risk between 2-3 players rather than one.

$650/14 on Soto ($46.5 AAV)

or

$220M/6 Burnes + $180M/6 Fried + $85M/4 Teoscar + $65M/4 Scott= $550M but an AAV of 

$106M years 1-4

$68.5M years 5-6

[Duran Is The Man]

FWIW....some guy on X named Mick (@beyondavgmick) is claiming Soto to Boston with no money deferred.

[Bellhorn04]

And Jared Carrabis tweeted "Thankful for Juan Soto."

Better be effin' real now...

[Hitch]

 

18 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

FWIW....some guy on X named Mick (@beyondavgmick) is claiming Soto to Boston with no money deferred.

This guy (Mick (@beyondavgmick) has few followers but called the Montgomery firing a day before it happened. And I can't see any wild posts from him claiming to know stuff that turned out to be bull... 😗

 

12 years is going to be a seriously high AV and extremely exciting, if true. 

 

I'll believe it when I see it, however.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

 

This guy (Mick (@beyondavgmick) has few followers but called the Montgomery firing a day before it happened. And I can't see any wild posts from him claiming to know stuff that turned out to be bull... 😗

 

12 years is going to be a seriously high AV and extremely exciting, if true. 

 

I'll believe it when I see it, however.

same.

[smokedogg1982]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

 

This guy (Mick (@beyondavgmick) has few followers but called the Montgomery firing a day before it happened. And I can't see any wild posts from him claiming to know stuff that turned out to be bull... 😗

 

12 years is going to be a seriously high AV and extremely exciting, if true. 

 

I'll believe it when I see it, however.

I just saw this and a clip of a Spanish language podcast where a guy is claiming the same thing 12 yrs but he says the deal is not finalized yet. That there's a verbal deal done though.

[moonslav59]

Not sure we can believe all these rumors. Who are these guys on X?

Word is the deal is 12 years, so I doubt we get a better AAV. (Why not just add 2 years and a few million?)

Could it be $700M/12? That's over $58M x 12! ($650/12 would be about $54M per.)

I'm trying to not get my hopes up.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, smokedogg1982 said:

I just saw this and a clip of a Spanish language podcast where a guy is claiming the same thing 12 yes but he says the deal is not finalized yet. That there's a verbal deal done though.

....still time for another team to jump their bid.