Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[Hitch]

That tax difference isn't nothing. But I just cannot see us outbidding Cohen even with that in our favour.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

That tax difference isn't nothing. But I just cannot see us outbidding Cohen even with that in our favour.

No one can outbid Cohen if he's fully committed.  You have to hope it's like Yamamoto where the player decides the bidding has gone high enough and they make their decision based on where they want to play.

[Hugh2]

I don’t think being the richest guy in baseball means he can never be outbid.  Its not like the guy has unlimited money and tells Boras “we’ll meet any offer and add 10%” into perpetuity.

 

signing a lot of high priced free agents isn’t analogous with just ridiculously overpaying anyone.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t think being the richest guy in baseball means he can never be outbid.  Its not like the guy has unlimited money and tells Boras “we’ll meet any offer and add 10%” into perpetuity.

 

signing a lot of high priced free agents isn’t analogous with just ridiculously overpaying anyone.

What sets Cohen apart is that he has demonstrated he's willing to dig into his own pocket, as in incur significant operating losses, to pay for talent.  Plus he's reportedly worth about $21 billion.  

It's a case where being not just rich, but rich and crazy, gives you an advantage.

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What sets Cohen apart is that he has demonstrated he's willing to dig into his own pocket, as in incur significant operating losses, to pay for talent.  Plus he's reportedly worth about $21 billion.  

It's a case where being not just rich, but rich and crazy, gives you an advantage.

I'm not saying he's not a player or even we should be surprised if it's the Mets, but people act like it's a foregone conclusion.  

I don't think Soto to NY is as much of a slam dunk as you guys are making it out to be. 

[Bellhorn04]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not saying he's not a player or even we should be surprised if it's the Mets, but people act like it's a foregone conclusion.  

I don't think Soto to NY is as much of a slam dunk as you guys are making it out to be. 

I think the consensus right now is that the 2 NY teams are the front-runners, with the Red Sox, Dodgers and Jays having a shot.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I'm trying not to get too emotionally invested in this, because the odds are too much in favor of disappointment.  

[mvp 78]

59 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I'm trying not to get too emotionally invested in this, because the odds are too much in favor of disappointment.  

I think signing Soto would be great and am 100% onboard with the Sox doing so, but don't believe it's going to happen. 

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think signing Soto would be great and am 100% onboard with the Sox doing so, but don't believe it's going to happen. 

After the meeting, I got caught up in the hype. Started feeling like we were a threat to land him, but after a few days (and a few meetings with rivals), Im less confident.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

After the meeting, I got caught up in the hype. Started feeling like we were a threat to land him, but after a few days (and a few meetings with rivals), Im less confident.

It's fun to get caught up. We all need that distraction every once in a while. I think the last few years have caused a few of us to keep our feet placed more firmly on the ground. 

[Hugh2]

I'm encouraged by the Soto pursuit, but that also doesn't mean I'm 100% convinced they get him. 

Remember, even if the Sox really do a 180 this offseason and decide that they're ready to invest into this ballclub again, they can STILL lose out to teams like NY/LA etc. 

If they're serious, I still expect a big offseason if they lose out on the Soto sweepstakes.  Pitching should be the focus, and if Soto goes elsewhere it will still be the main focus.  In the absence of Soto I have very little interest in position players aside from a catcher, this team really needs a catcher. 

Soto is the exception.....because he's f***ing Juan Soto.

But with all that said, I can't blame one single poster for being pessimistic until something actually happens, given this ownerships actions the last 1/2 decade. 

[notin]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What sets Cohen apart is that he has demonstrated he's willing to dig into his own pocket, as in incur significant operating losses, to pay for talent.  Plus he's reportedly worth about $21 billion.  

It's a case where being not just rich, but rich and crazy, gives you an advantage.

And yet the largest contract he’s ever given to a player coming from another team was the 4 year $78mill contract awarded to Starlin Marte. (Ok maybe those Verlander/Scherzer deals were higher, but they were also very short and traded away very quickly.)

 

The Mets have gone bigger with internal contracts, like the ones for Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo,  But outside deals?  They’ve all been short deals, with Kodak Senga’s 5 year pact topping the Longevity Meter..

[Hugh2]

55 minutes ago, notin said:

And yet the largest contract he’s ever given to a player coming from another team was the 4 year $78mill contract awarded to Starlin Marte. (Ok maybe those Verlander/Scherzer deals were higher, but they were also very short and traded away very quickly.)

 

The Mets have gone bigger with internal contracts, like the ones for Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo,  But outside deals?  They’ve all been short deals, with Kodak Senga’s 5 year pact topping the Longevity Meter..

When I started looking at the Mets spending I noticed that too.  The crazy thing is, none of those contracts in a vacuum looked like a big overpay. It’s just the totality of their spending that is enormous.  They will obviously be serious bidders, but this notion that they will just outbid anyone thru the moon is just theoretical at this point.

[vjcsmoke]

Op is correct in that Soto would be the perfect piece to propel the Red Sox into contention. However I just find it hard to believe that ownership is willing to spend 600 million even on an elite superstar. They have shown reluctance to spend countless times. They have stated a goal to become the next Tampa Bay Rays, low salary team.

i just have a gut feeling the Red Sox interest is just all posturing. They don’t want to be vilified for missing out on Soto so they will just offer a little less than the other suitors and pretend “we really tried guys!”

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

 They have stated a goal to become the next Tampa Bay Rays, low salary team.

Stated is an interesting word seeing how the Sox have literally never said this.

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Op is correct in that Soto would be the perfect piece to propel the Red Sox into contention. However I just find it hard to believe that ownership is willing to spend 600 million even on an elite superstar. They have shown reluctance to spend countless times. They have stated a goal to become the next Tampa Bay Rays, low salary team.

i just have a gut feeling the Red Sox interest is just all posturing. They don’t want to be vilified for missing out on Soto so they will just offer a little less than the other suitors and pretend “we really tried guys!”

 

I think they're genuinely interested. I also think that they will go on in a fair bit lower than everyone else, but that it won't be just for show. They'll be leaning on - 

 

- This will be your team

- Dominican history/connection

- Slightly lower taxes.

- We're a young talented team with lots coming through. We''re going to contend for many years to come.

 

I doubt it works with Cohen at the table, but I do think it's legit.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Stated is an interesting word seeing how the Sox have literally never said this.

Yeah, the Tampa Bay North thing was a media creation, probably led by Mr. Shaughnessy.

Mind you, by hiring Chaim Bloom, trading Mookie Betts, and basically being cheap for a 5 year stretch, the Sox have not done much to dispel the image, 

[Hugh2]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, the Tampa Bay North thing was a media creation, probably led by Mr. Shaughnessy.

Mind you, by hiring Chaim Bloom, trading Mookie Betts, and basically being cheap for a 5 year stretch, the Sox have kind of lived down to that image, 

Even hiring Bloom was a false narrative. 

Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman away from TB and he's only the director of baseball operations for the biggest market team in the game.  

It's all on John Henry. 

Even then.  Boston Payroll vs. Tampa Payroll in the post Mookie era. 

2020:  $185 million to $90 million

2021: $207 million to $90 million

2022: $236 million to $125 million

2023: $226 million to $132 million

2024: $223 million to $106 million

Sox are not turning into Tampa North. 

 

I understand the frustration, I understand digging their hole so deep that they don't get one ounce of credit until they've actually invested in real high end talent and built a winner.  I get that, I really do, and I'm not saying there's been in obvious shift in philosophy and how they spend their money in recent years but I will say this.  Let us look at what they have said. 

They have said, that they would spend, they've always said that they would spend when they feel that they have a team to build around. Whether or not you like that philosophy that's what they've said and to be fair, they've had  a crap team to be "building around" in recent years. 

For the first time in a decade they have a young team, a #1 farm system, and the payroll space to add talent. If they were going to keep their words then this would be the offseason that they would change gears and spend. Again, I get that it's "put up or shut up time" but if they do go out and add elite talent this offseason.....they've effectively done exactly what they've said they were going to do all this whole time. 

I would have felt a whole lot better about it if they were just honest with fans from the get go and said they were in rebuild mode.  They went into rebuild mode and told everyone they were going to compete and that is understandably why the fan base is untrusting. 

I'm encouraged by this.  On the last section 10 podcast it was either Jared Carrabis or Lou Merloni who was saying that in the past it was pretty much a guy going out to talk to a free agent, last year they would send Eddie Romero and thats' it.  This year, they reportedly met with a high end player and sent the entire cavalry.  And there are reports around the league that teams, executives, and agents expect the Sox to be big time players this offseason.  Whether thats' ******** or not......we shall find out. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Even hiring Bloom was a false narrative. 

Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman away from TB and he's only the director of baseball operations for the biggest market team in the game.  

It's all on John Henry. 

Even then.  Boston Payroll vs. Tampa Payroll in the post Mookie era. 

2020:  $185 million to $90 million

2021: $207 million to $90 million

2022: $236 million to $125 million

2023: $226 million to $132 million

2024: $223 million to $106 million

Sox are not turning into Tampa North.

But if you do the calcs in comparison to revenue...

 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But if you do the calcs in comparison to revenue...

 

That's an entirely different thing.  Payroll is directly effected by which players you trade and sign for.  I honestly don't think a single fan could care less about whether revenue is down or up as long as the club is winning

[moonslav59]

It seems like the real "nutty," recent signings have been by the LAD, SDP and maybe the Rangers. I agree, the Mets signings don't jump out as being massive overpays. It was more  about their total budget blasting by everyone else.

I'm not sure the Dodgers are planning on going nutty every winter. The Rangers and Padres have already pulled back. The Yanks may step up to keep Soto, and the Mets will likely make a hefty final offer, but do not think it is a sure bet Soto ends up in NY.

I'm not predicting the Sox. I wouldn't even say I'm hoping we sign him, if the price keeps us from spending in the future. (You know JH will pull back, at some point, if he spends big on Soto.)

I'd rather go with pitching, but we could trade for that, especially by adding Soto. We have 4 top prospects and a solid 9, even before Soto & the kids. We would have enough trade capital to add a solid SP'er, perhaps at a low cost.

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, the Tampa Bay North thing was a media creation, probably led by Mr. Shaughnessy.

Mind you, by hiring Chaim Bloom, trading Mookie Betts, and basically being cheap for a 5 year stretch, the Sox have not done much to dispel the image, 

Hard to be Tampa North when they sign Devers extension and make dumb FA signings like Story, Gio, Masa, etc. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But if you do the calcs in comparison to revenue...

 

They'll always make a frickton of money, which is why they should always spend up to the CBT with short term contracts even in rebuild years. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, the Tampa Bay North thing was a media creation, probably led by Mr. Shaughnessy.

Mind you, by hiring Chaim Bloom, trading Mookie Betts, and basically being cheap for a 5 year stretch, the Sox have not done much to dispel the image, 

Making Bloom the GM had a lot to do with it, too. He was literally the author of the book on the Rays strategies.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

That's an entirely different thing.  Payroll is directly effected by which players you trade and sign for.  I honestly don't think a single fan could care less about whether revenue is down or up as long as the club is winning

Majorly disagree. 

What a lot of Sox fans have been complaining about is the team not spending as much as they could, and their ability to spend is closely related to their wealth, and wealth comes from revenue. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Making Bloom the GM had a lot to do with it, too. He was literally the author of the book on the Rays strategies.

Hiring Bloom and then trading Mookie was quite a 1-2 punch.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Hard to be Tampa North when they sign Devers extension and make dumb FA signings like Story, Gio, Masa, etc. 

Except for Raffy -- who we all thought they were forced to extend -- all the others you listed were "stealth" signings by our clever conglomerate of good ole boy lifers in the front office.

The Assistant Vice Presidents get together each offseason to cleverly outbid themselves for a free agent that no other club could give a market value to...

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Majorly disagree. 

What a lot of Sox fans have been complaining about is the team not spending as much as they could, and their ability to spend is closely related to their wealth, and wealth comes from revenue. 

There's a direct relationship between payroll and wins/losses.  Not nearly as strong as revenue.  YOu can lose 100 games and still turn a profit as a company.  To me revenue is 100% irrelevant here. 

When fans say "Boston is become Tampa North" they're talking about payroll.  They're talking 100% about the money spent on the players on the field, they're talking about investing in the team.  Boston has consistently outspent Tampa 2:1

They're not Tampa North, they've just normally sucked. 

[Hugh2]

Even if Revenue was the same thing as payroll. Which it's not.  THe Sox are still not Tampa North

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

There's a direct relationship between payroll and wins/losses.  Not nearly as strong as revenue.  YOu can lose 100 games and still turn a profit as a company.  To me revenue is 100% irrelevant here. 

Hugh, a large number of the criticisms about the Red Sox inability to retain Mookie and their subsequent lack of spending refer directly to them being among the wealthiest teams. 

This is not a controversial position.