Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Was it below market?

At the time it was the 2nd largest amount of money ever given. 

It was signed during Covid, when there was a ton of uncertainty in the world and in sports.  That might have motivated him to sign that contract. 

I will always wonder, if in a non covid reality, if Betts would have gone to FA.  I think he would have but we will never really know. 

1. I was doing a TalkSox goof.

2. I don't believe COVID had any impact. 

3. The guys at his level are now being paid more so his contract is now below market. I'd much rather have Mookie than Soto. 

4. The Dodgers should trade Mookie! 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. I was doing a TalkSox goof.

2. I don't believe COVID had any impact. 

3. The guys at his level are now being paid more so his contract is now below market. I'd much rather have Mookie than Soto. 

4. The Dodgers should trade Mookie! 

I'd believe it didn't have much of an impact on the money he would have got (give or take) but I think it impacted his decision to sign and not go to FA. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd believe it didn't have much of an impact on the money he would have got (give or take) but I think it impacted his decision to sign and not go to FA. 

We have no idea. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd believe it didn't have much of an impact on the money he would have got (give or take) but I think it impacted his decision to sign and not go to FA. 

Who knows what impacted his decision the most?  Can't overlook that the Dodgers had a lot to offer-a team with a ton of resources, committed to winning, great weather, the whole package, really.

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We have no idea. 

No but one can have conjecture.  We had an unprecedented world event happened that led to a level of unpredictability we havent seen world wide in almost a century.  It's not insane to think someone might of said to themselves "s*** maybe I'll take that 365 million now"  Again we'll never know, but I'm comfortable saying it's a good chance. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Who knows what impacted his decision the most?  Can't overlook that the Dodgers had a lot to offer-a team with a ton of resources, committed to winning, great weather, the whole package, really.

Even if he went to free agency in a non covid world, he certainly still could of ended up signing in LA.  Guys like to maximize their value and having teams bid on you can certainly do that.  being uncertain about the world and the future can certainly change ones perception. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No but one can have conjecture.  We had an unprecedented world event happened that led to a level of unpredictability we havent seen world wide in almost a century.  It's not insane to think someone might of said to themselves "s*** maybe I'll take that 365 million now"  Again we'll never know, but I'm comfortable saying it's a good chance. 

I just cringe a little at the COVID/Betts contract conjecture because it was used at the time to give Henry cover by some posters for not being able to get a deal done. Henry messed up. If he just paid the 400M to Mookie, it would have been an overpay, but we'd be in a better spot right now. 

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox could not have botched the Betts trade much worse if they tried.  They traded him to the team that was probably in the absolute best position to sign him to an extension, and they got a crappy return to boot (as shown by the Padres' return for Soto).

Just an unbelievably bad job.  Epic ineptitude.  New York Jets level.   

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's probably because "afford" isn't the right word.  The question is whether $650-700 million for any player is a rational expenditure.  I think John Henry's opinion is that it is not.  He already demonstrated this at a much smaller number with Betts.

Your point about the cost of Burnes and Fried being less than half of Soto, is the clincher. We could sign both and spend less than what Soto costs.

While notin is right about the 3-4 years of value for both, together they total 7-8 years, which is about what Soto would give us.

Signing Burnes and Fried would then allow us to trade Crawford, Abreu and DHam for a big RHB that can play LF, C, 1B, 2B or even a DH. It's easier to trade for a big bat than a top SP'er.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox could not have botched the Betts trade much worse if they tried.  They traded him to the team that was probably in the absolute best position to sign him to an extension, and they got a crappy return to boot (as shown by the Padres' return for Soto).

Just an unbelievably bad job.  Epic ineptitude.  New York Jets level.   

It was horrific, indeed. What made it even worse was that the centerpiece of the return, Jeter Downs, sucked. Dugo was okay, and the Fitts return on the Dugo trade may prove to be very helpful, but has to fall way short of what one would expect for a full year of Betts. Wong was looking like a nice part of the return, but his defense is so questionable, now, I don't see him as a major plus from that trade.

Yes, NY Jets level bad.

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just cringe a little at the COVID/Betts contract conjecture because it was used at the time to give Henry cover by some posters for not being able to get a deal done. Henry messed up. If he just paid the 400M to Mookie, it would have been an overpay, but we'd be in a better spot right now. 

I don't think this is a zero sum game, I can believe Henry messed up and didn't want to dish out the money AND Covid changed the world and might have influenced Betts to just take the money and not risk going to FA. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

It was horrific, indeed. What made it even worse was that the centerpiece of the return, Jeter Downs, sucked. Dugo was okay, and the Fitts return on the Dugo trade may prove to be very helpful, but has to fall way short of what one would expect for a full year of Betts. Wong was looking like a nice part of the return, but his defense is so questionable, now, I don't see him as a major plus from that trade.

Yes, NY Jets level bad.

If Downs simply turned into a 2 WAR guy, it would have been more tolerable. However, you can't rely on a guy with only 12 G above A ball to be a known commodity. Bad deal! 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just cringe a little at the COVID/Betts contract conjecture because it was used at the time to give Henry cover by some posters for not being able to get a deal done. Henry messed up. If he just paid the 400M to Mookie, it would have been an overpay, but we'd be in a better spot right now. 

I seem to remember being pretty much alone in thinking we should have offered Mookie $420/14. I;m not saying this to brag, but more out of the sense that I felt Mookie needed to be blown away to accept an offer before free agency. The offer he took from LAD may or may not have been influenced by COVID, and I don't want to rehash old debates, but I think JH felt something hug was needed to sign Betts, and he just refused to buckle. We don't even know if some counter offer was even discussed. We may never know.

On the return package, Betts was due for a hefty last arb year contract, and that alone likely excluded 15-20 teams from even making a phone call about a trade. It might have only been 4-8 teams that could have made an offer, if they wanted to. There was some talk that only two serious inquiries and offers or frameworks of offers were made. One by LAD and one by SDP. The one by SD looked to be no better.

Once the decision was made to trade him for whatever best offer we got, that backed Bloom into an unwinnable corner, and as we all saw, he and the team lost, bigtime. The inclusion of Price was probably what narrowed the teams to two, and the offers to substandards. The Soto trade did not involve a David Price tag on.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Downs simply turned into a 2 WAR guy, it would have been more tolerable. However, you can't rely on a guy with only 12 G above A ball to be a known commodity. Bad deal! 

When you think about all the moves we made with the intention of improving our middle infield, we've failed so miserably, it's not even funny.

The Downs trade.

The Kike signing, especially the second one (and attempt to play him at SS)

The Story signing.

The Grissom trade.

Even lesser patchwork deals like Buttrey for Kinsler, Marwin, Nunez & Phillips signings and the Josh Taylor for A Mondesi trade, failed badly.

 

[mvp 78]

I don't think the Sox were ever going to get a trade offer from the Dodgers that was going to appease Sox fans. 

If the Dodgers gave up Lux, Gonsolin and May it would have been an absolute coup.

Since the trade:

May: 3.3 bWAR

Gonsolin: 6.8 bWAR

Lux: 7.0 bWAR

Total: 17.1 bWAR

Betts: 27.4 bWAR

Yes, you can say it's just for one year of Mookie, but many fans would still be frustrated with the return. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It was horrific, indeed. What made it even worse was that the centerpiece of the return, Jeter Downs, sucked.

I thought Verdugo was the centerpiece, and Wong and Downs only came into it after Bloom decided against Graterol because of his medicals.

[Bellhorn04]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think the Sox were ever going to get a trade offer from the Dodgers that was going to appease Sox fans. 

If the Dodgers gave up Lux, Gonsolin and May it would have been an absolute coup.

Since the trade:

May: 3.3 bWAR

Gonsolin: 6.8 bWAR

Lux: 7.0 bWAR

Total: 17.1 bWAR

Betts: 27.4 bWAR

Yes, you can say it's just for one year of Mookie, but many fans would still be frustrated with the return. 

 

When the Padres traded Soto the Yankees they got back pitching - King and Thorpe.  We got zero pitching.  At the time I thought Bloom had done his best, but in retrospect it was just a terrible job they did.

And I have what I think is a satisfactory explanation (for myself at least LOL) for why the Betts trade happened so late.  I think they delayed it because they didn't want to turn off season ticket buyers.  I distinctly remember 700hitter being irate when the Betts trade rumors first started and basically accusing Bloom of lying about his intentions with Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

Jon Heyman says we're in the mix! 😉

https://nypost.com/2024/11/11/sports/blue-jays-could-play-spoiler-in-yankees-mets-juan-soto-sweepstakes/

Heyman of course is alleged to be close with Boras and has been suspected of planting stuff that might help his friend.  I think that's probably true.  

[Maddie Landis]

Passan tweeted the Red Sox are meeting with Soto after the Blue Jays: 

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1856324233657213222

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Jon Heyman says we're in the mix! 😉

https://nypost.com/2024/11/11/sports/blue-jays-could-play-spoiler-in-yankees-mets-juan-soto-sweepstakes/

Heyman of course is alleged to be close with Boras and has been suspected of planting stuff that might help his friend.  I think that's probably true.  

The Red Sox are definitely interested... in driving up the price for Soto. 

They need to make the Yankees spend as much money as possible, but it will still be a miracle New York doesn't spend whatever it takes to land the real free agent prize of the offseason: Tanner Scott.

Q: How important it is for Boston to somehow sign Scott and keep him out of pinstripes (or O's orange, Blue Jay blue or whatever crappy colors the Rays wear)?

A: Scott vs. the Red Sox, July 4, 2024: (9th inning) Devers strikes out swinging, Refsnyder strikes out swinging, Yoshida strikes out swinging.

 

[Jasonbay44]

I highly doubt they actually sign Soto or even give him a competitive offer, but he is one of only players that’s actually hit free agency that I would ever give a ridiculous contract too. He is very very special and you usually don’t see guys like him in free agency, especially this young.

He is a “blank check” type guy. 

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I highly doubt they actually sign Soto or even give him a competitive offer, but he is one of only players that’s actually hit free agency that I would ever give a ridiculous contract too. He is very very special and you usually don’t see guys like him in free agency, especially this young.

He is a “blank check” type guy. 

They didn't even pretend to be in on Ohtani, so at least this is in the right direction. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I thought Verdugo was the centerpiece, and Wong and Downs only came into it after Bloom decided against Graterol because of his medicals.

You are probably right. I always thought Jeter was the best hope for the most value. Dugo was already established, somewhat. Jeter's value was speculative.

I really think the inclusion of Price hurt the return, significant;y.

I did not like the  reported SDP offer, either.

It was rather strange that nobody jumped in to offer more,  but the cost of Betts + 1/2 Price was just too much.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You are probably right. I always thought Jeter was the best hope for the most value. Dugo was already established, somewhat. Jeter's value was speculative.

I really think the inclusion of Price hurt the return, significant;y.

I did not like the  reported SDP offer, either.

It was rather strange that nobody jumped in to offer more,  but the cost of Betts + 1/2 Price was just too much.

Depending on one's outlook, it can also be true that Half Price cost Mookie.

[Tedballgame]

The Red Sox are NOT signing Juan Soto. Too much money for too long of years. No Chance!

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I highly doubt they actually sign Soto or even give him a competitive offer, but he is one of only players that’s actually hit free agency that I would ever give a ridiculous contract too. He is very very special and you usually don’t see guys like him in free agency, especially this young.

He is a “blank check” type guy. 

We had one of those, but John Henry obviously doesn't buy into the concept! 

[Bellhorn04]

41 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

The Red Sox are NOT signing Juan Soto. Too much money for too long of years. No Chance!

Yeah, I think they're meeting with him essentially for PR purposes.  They want us to know they're doing their due diligence and they are "always open to any possibility to improve".  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Depending on one's outlook, it can also be true that Half Price cost Mookie.

Yes, maybe we don't have to trade Betts, if we had no Price deal, at all, or even half Price.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Yes, maybe we don't have to trade Betts, if we had no Price deal, at all, or even half Price.

Pretty sure they were trading Betts regardless.  The Price half dump was just part of the return.  

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Pretty sure they were trading Betts regardless.  The Price half dump was just part of the return.  

Agreed, but in theory, dumping all of Price's deal would have allowed us to offer more for Betts, but I do not think JH would have done it, anyway.