A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Speaking of trades, here's the latest trade rumor involving Casas. Casas and Winkowski go to the Cards for Arenado, Helsley and Herrera.

Helsley is one of the best backend relievers in baseball and Herrara is a 24 yr old catcher, who in 72 games with the Cards last season hit .300 with an OPS of .800.

The values of this trade are pretty close. If this is a serious potential trade, I would do it in a NY minute.

 

Helsley has one year of control, and Arenado's bat could be toast/ I like Herrara and an extended Helsley.

I'm not sure we can trade them 2 Casases, but if they fall for it, great!

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Speaking of trades, here's the latest trade rumor involving Casas. Casas and Winkowski go to the Cards for Arenado, Helsley and Herrera.

Helsley is one of the best backend relievers in baseball and Herrara is a 24 yr old catcher, who in 72 games with the Cards last season hit .300 with an OPS of .800.

The values of this trade are pretty close. If this is a serious potential trade, I would do it in a NY minute.

 

if they throw in Quinn Matthews, i'm all over that deal.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Bet.

What's the parameters?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Helsley has one year of control, and Arenado's bat could be toast/ I like Herrara and an extended Helsley.

I'm not sure we can trade them 2 Casases, but if they fall for it, great!

I can understand why Arenado and Helsley would be available, but I have no idea why they would include Herrera.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

My prediction is that Bregman ends up signing with the SOX, but only for 5 years with maybe an option after the 4th year.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Speaking of trades, here's the latest trade rumor involving Casas. Casas and Winkowski go to the Cards for Arenado, Helsley and Herrera.

Helsley is one of the best backend relievers in baseball and Herrara is a 24 yr old catcher, who in 72 games with the Cards last season hit .300 with an OPS of .800.

The values of this trade are pretty close. If this is a serious potential trade, I would do it in a NY minute.

 

We'd need some cash included, of make them take Yoshida + $5-8M x 3 years. The one year of Helsley cuts down on the value, a lot. 

Arendao greatly improves our defense, assuming he plays 3B not 1B, but we lose on O w him vs Casas. How do we get the O back up to even? Grichuk won't do it. Bregman at 3B, Arenado at 1B and Devers to DH? Way too costly!

I think I'd insist on Yoshida plus some cash.

[oldtimer]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Even worse than what, though?

If he's in the OF more than 10 games, it is very likely due to an addition at 3B or 1B, and overall, we'll likely be better on D and O, despite Yoshida being in LF. We aren't putting Yoshida in LF so Abreu can DH.

Yoshida in LF, when the DH slot is not used by Casas or Devers makes very little sense to me, but without Anthony on the 26, I can see wanting to sit Abreu vs LHPs with Refsnyder in LF, those games. I doubt I'd want to sit Rafaela vs RHPs, so Yoshida plays LF instead of DH.

Our goals for the 2025 season were to improve the defense and balance the lineup. In addition, addressing the pitching issues was the priority item. 

At least we have addressed the pitching to some extent but we still have four poor defenders in the lineup if catching is included and we have less  balance in the lineup than last season.  There were some trade and FA possibilities out there but as yet they have not been realized. Management needs to think stategially, including long term and also use the strengths available to us.

Clearly Yoshida is a poor defender with a left hand bat.  It would be an addition by subtraction had we traded him, even if we had to sweeten the pot with Abreau. Is there a catcher out there we can acquire in trade? We let Teel go so now have very little in the wings.

We have the number 1 rated prospect in all of  baseball and are debating whether he will make the 26 man. True he is a left handed bat, but come on man, bring him up. 

We need a second baseman and have Kristian Campbell who is a high potential and flexible defender and swings a right hand bat. Bring him up instead of dumping big bucks on a once great but now possibly over the age hump infielder. We also have Mayer who clearly is an advanced defender with a high potential bat. The problem there is he is a left handed player and doesn't fit as well

We have put ourselves in the position of starting below average defenders at both 1st and 3rd. Since we get a lot of offense from those positions and we have big money involved, the solution is not obvious. Having Yoshida out of the lineup would open the DH up but I doubt if either Devers or Casas wants to go that route. If we don' t find a solution to the problem this year, it will linger on. It sounds like they are both here to stay so is their defense. If that is the case,  we at least need aRH power bat for DH.

I don't see that Sox management and ownership have addressed fixing the weaknesses in our field players.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I don't see that Sox management and ownership have addressed fixing the weaknesses in our field players.

How can you say that when we said good-bye to two weak players -- our home run leader who struck out 33% of the time, and our back-up replacement catcher, with the 0.1 WAR, -0.1 dWAR, .188 BA and .623 OPS.

We already replaced them both with one Double A catcher.

As for the two prospects you want to watch and root for, the Red Sox can't promote them yet because they'll lose control of an extra year, half a decade from now when maybe only one guy on the entire roster is still playing for Boston (like Devers in 2024, the lone holdover from 2019).

Plus, do you really think two of the top-rated baseball prospects in the world can contribute more than two Red Sox from last Opening Day -- Valdez and Reyes? You know, the pair whose WBR was -0.6 each last season...

 

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What leaves you to believe this? 

You mean leads??? 
bres-slow made some comments at Fenway fest that I interpreted to mean he needs to see them walk on water in order to start in Boston. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Our goals for the 2025 season were to improve the defense and balance the lineup. In addition, addressing the pitching issues was the priority item. 

At least we have addressed the pitching to some extent but we still have four poor defenders in the lineup if catching is included and we have less  balance in the lineup than last season.  There were some trade and FA possibilities out there but as yet they have not been realized. Management needs to think stategially, including long term and also use the strengths available to us.

Clearly Yoshida is a poor defender with a left hand bat.  It would be an addition by subtraction had we traded him, even if we had to sweeten the pot with Abreau. Is there a catcher out there we can acquire in trade? We let Teel go so now have very little in the wings.

We have the number 1 rated prospect in all of  baseball and are debating whether he will make the 26 man. True he is a left handed bat, but come on man, bring him up. 

We need a second baseman and have Kristian Campbell who is a high potential and flexible defender and swings a right hand bat. Bring him up instead of dumping big bucks on a once great but now possibly over the age hump infielder. We also have Mayer who clearly is an advanced defender with a high potential bat. The problem there is he is a left handed player and doesn't fit as well

We have put ourselves in the position of starting below average defenders at both 1st and 3rd. Since we get a lot of offense from those positions and we have big money involved, the solution is not obvious. Having Yoshida out of the lineup would open the DH up but I doubt if either Devers or Casas wants to go that route. If we don' t find a solution to the problem this year, it will linger on. It sounds like they are both here to stay so is their defense. If that is the case,  we at least need aRH power bat for DH.

I don't see that Sox management and ownership have addressed fixing the weaknesses in our field players.

When I post the line-up I want for 2025, I include Anthony and Campbell. If and when they do start playing, along with Mayer, our defense should improve by attrition. The only way it doesn't, if if Anthony takes away only Abreu's OF time, and Campbell and or Mayer take away Story's time at SS.

I do feel like the Sox have often viewed LF and 1B as all bat and no glove slots, but 3B was different. I am pretty sure nothing changes at the corner IF positions, this year, but there has been talk of trading Casas, and at least some discussion about Devers being a defensive liability at 3B. Playing Yoshida in LF, at least until Anthony is called up would not be the end of the world, but it should be avoided, if possible.

My point was that I'm okay with seeing him play there, more often, if it is a result of fixing the 3B defensive issue (Devers to 1B/DH, Casas to DH/1B and Yoshida-Refsnyder to a semi FT LF platoon. Duran FT CF. Abreu-Rafaela platoon RF. Again, there is less than a 1% chance this happens, but with a major improvement at 3B D and maybe some at 1B, it would more than outweigh the loss on D at LF.

I'm hopeful we do something about fixing more than one of our remaining highest need areas, before opening day, but I'm thinking one might be all we can even hope for, and none is all we can expect.

To me, we need these areas addressed, if possible, and without creating another equally high need somewhere else:

1. A lock down closer (Tanner Scott, maybe quick fix, one year guy like Helsley)

2. FT Catcher (Wong becomes the back-up and emergency 2B/1B depth)

3. RHB (Maybe Campbell could be that guy, but being safe and adding someone sounds better.)

4. 3B Defense (Bregman signing or a trade and Devers to 1B/DH share with Casas)

5. 1B Defense (Can Devers improve on Casas at 1B D?)

6. Finding a taker for Yoshida and as much of his contract as possible.

Best case -not for the budget: sign Bregman & Scott. Move Devers to 1B/DH. Trade Abreu for Herera.

1. L Duran LF/CF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Campbell 2B

6. L Anthony RF

7. R Story SS

8. L Yoshida- R Refsnyder LF or Rafaela CF

9. Herrera C

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito

RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Crawford, Wilson

I know- I know: not happening.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

My prediction is that Bregman ends up signing with the SOX, but only for 5 years with maybe an option after the 4th year.

Too many years.

[Bellhorn04]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Robert Stock is back, making him the first player acquired by multiple CBO’s since Rich Hill…

Can honestly say this is one I didn't see coming.

[Hugh2]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Too many years.

I would normally agree, but how often do premium free agents who are 30 years old sign for more than 5 years? in the absence of injury these guys usually get 6+ 

Exceptions apply, and I'd love him here on a 3-4 years deal, and perhaps his market has collapsed and such a deal exists.  But 5 years for Bregman would be very reasonable. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Can honestly say this is one I didn't see coming.

Brought him back because he's good at posting. Pitching? He'll throw some heat in WOO, but he was not a good hang (unless online) in 2020. 

[moonslav59]

Bregman turned down a reported $156M/6 deal from HOU. I'm sure he would like to have the optics show he made the right choice, but if nobody offers that, he will have to take the best he can get or go short term with a higher AAV to "save face."

Maybe he ends up with $160M/6, which seems fair and maybe doable for JH & Co. That's close to what Story got, when adjusted for inflation. That is just under $27M AAV, and maybe we can bring down the AAV with some creative financing, but that number would eat up just about all of the budget room below the first line- leaving very little for adding a closer or decent RP'er.

An Areando trade with paydowns might allow us to sign Yates or Esteves, too.

[mvp 78]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I would normally agree, but how often do premium free agents who are 30 years old sign for more than 5 years? in the absence of injury these guys usually get 6+ 

Exceptions apply, and I'd love him here on a 3-4 years deal, and perhaps his market has collapsed and such a deal exists.  But 5 years for Bregman would be very reasonable. 

It's reasonable, but I don't want to pay years 4 and 5 and those are the years when Anthony and Campbell should be peaking. 

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman turned down a reported $156M/6 deal from HOU. I'm sure he would like to have the optics show he made the right choice, but if nobody offers that, he will have to take the best he can get or go short term with a higher AAV to "save face."

He wouldn't have the first agent who misread the market. 

[notin]

19 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

if they throw in Quinn Matthews, i'm all over that deal.

I don’t think they will be including any top pitching prospects.  Casas himself is the motivating acquisition for them.  And Herrera is the big get for the Sox…

[notin]

19 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I can understand why Arenado and Helsley would be available, but I have no idea why they would include Herrera.

To get Casas?

[notin]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's reasonable, but I don't want to pay years 4 and 5 and those are the years when Anthony and Campbell should be peaking. 

Hopefully one or both are locked up long before then…

[notin]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Can honestly say this is one I didn't see coming.

Throws hard.  Works cheap.

His problem is he couldn’t find the strike zone if he bought a house in it and moved there..

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Hopefully one or both are locked up long before then…

In view of Wander Franco, maybe we should be using verbiage other than "locked up"...

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In view of Wander Franco, maybe we should be using verbiage other than "locked up"...

Contractually bound? And gagged?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Hopefully one or both are locked up long before then…

Yes, but you'll also want payroll flexibility to surround them with good players rather than guys circling the toilet like Bregman.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

To get Casas?

The post said: Casas and Wink for Arenado, Helsley & Herrera. (Not sure it was based on anything but someone's whim.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, notin said:

I don’t think they will be including any top pitching prospects.  Casas himself is the motivating acquisition for them.  And Herrera is the big get for the Sox…

yeah, i'm sure they wouldn't. i was just saying that unless they included Matthews, i'd rather have Casas.

[Larry Cook]

Do we really think we are acquiring any other big name talent?????

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do we really think we are acquiring any other big name talent?????

Maybe I'm just dreaming, but Bregman of Scott are possible.

More likely, Estevez & Grichuk and we trade Abreu for a catcher.

[jdc69]

As they have said Red Sox are probably playing chicken with Bregman and I can't blame them. All these RHB free agents asking for all this money are pretty much guaranteed to be not as good, and decreasing. If we get him, we get him because we need that RHB but it seems like we missed the boat. In hindsight they should've just signed O'Neill and focused on what we DIDN’T have.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, jdc69 said:

As they have said Red Sox are probably playing chicken with Bregman and I can't blame them. All these RHB free agents asking for all this money are pretty much guaranteed to be not as good, and decreasing. If we get him, we get him because we need that RHB but it seems like we missed the boat. In hindsight they should've just signed O'Neill and focused on what we DIDN’T have.

With Anthony ML ready, and Campbell able to play OF, if needed, I'm not sure O'Neill was a good fit. If we go for a RHB OF'er, it would likely be a 1 year guy, like maybe Grichuk.

Ideally, we add a plus D catcher or 3Bman who bats RH'd and has some power- the more: the better.

Sean Murphy (via trade) or Bregman (FA) seem like possible choices, but at what cost.

I still think our bbats will be fine, but I get the argument that we should seek "elite" batters and not settle on just being a top 10 offense, especially since our defense is bottom 10. We should seek to be a top 5 hitting team, while maybe moving the D up to middle tier, for now. However, I still have closer as out highest need.

We've added, a lot, this winter, but IMO, we could be a top contender if we can fix 2-3 of our top 5 high need areas:

1. Closer

2. Catcher who is plus on D

3. RHB (Could fill our #2 or #5 need, too)

4. Another decent RP

5. 3B defense (1B D might be 6th)

One addition, like Murphy or Bregman could fill 2 needs. Tanner Scott would fill our top need. Just one of these ideas might be enough: two of them would get me really excited about 2025.