A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Not a point I ever refuted, but as you said the difference was injuries it was KEY injuries. 

Unless you have some kind of definitive proof that better players are more likely to be hurt in boston than guys who suck I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. 

My point stands, every team deals with injuries. Does it hurt more when you don't have depth? or hurt more when those are key players? of course. Never did I say the opposite of that.  There's still an element of luck, and when you couple that with the additions they've made and the young talent coming up to the bigs AND you were to add a few more pieces (E.G. Bregman, Scott) I think the Sox have all the ingredients to be a contender next year. 

When it comes to pitching, we seem to only sign injury-prone pitchers and guys who are known to be starting the season on the 60 Day IL (Paxton, Hendriks, Fulmer, Sandoval.)

I don't think our everyday players get hurt more than the average or norm. Story has been our poster boy, but most teams have a Story or two. Casas hurt us, since Dalbec and Copper sucked for too long, until DSmith stabilized the position until Tristan's return. The Devers injury hurt, badly, but 3 injuries is not a lot.

Last year, the unplanned injuries to the rotation were Giolito (33 GS) and Whitlock (29 GS missed.)

The pen lost Slaten and martin for a few weeks, combined. They just plain succked.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

It’s also only January 17th and many top free agents and trade targets are still available…

I know.  I'm just feeling skeptical, maybe because of other recent offseasons where we waited for something good to happen that never did. 

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, you're not really explaining or backing anything up.  Did every other team have a key guy like Devers finish the season on the IL, and key guys like Casas and Story play a combined total of 89 games?

Did every other team's offense fall off the planet the last 6 weeks of the season?

 

Not to mention, the pitching staff, particularly the rotation, is vastly improved.  Cooper Criswell was 5th on the Sox in games started last year.  Right now he’s somewhere in the 7-10 range on the SP depth chart.  And maybe even lower.

For all of the “we lost Jansen and Martin and didn’t replace them” panic, the Sox bullpen has added (or will see the return of) Hendriks, Whitlock, Fulmer, Chapman, and Wilson.  And will probably see Kutter Crawford as well. The only pitcher from last year’s opening who will (barring injuries) be in this year’s opening day bullpen is Justin Slaten.  Relief pitchers the Sox relied on last year like Bernardino, Weissert, and Kelly are very likely depth starting out in Worcester.

But yes, they didn’t replace O’Neill.  Well, maybe with Story…

[moonslav59]

I would not say Story was ever viewed as a key element of our offense.

When we signed him, we thought he was, or could be, but he has never been a force on O for us.

Casas has done very well, when he plays. Playing 195 games out of about 320 in 2 seasons is not a catastrophic loss, but it is significant.

Devers playing hurt and then missing time hurt, a lot. he was on pace for beating his career high OPS by 70 points, in early August, and he was still over his career high on Sept 1st. He hit .568 after AUG 15th and .470 after AUG 31st (last 19 games.)

On the flip side, Duran ha 735 PAs (led MLB) and could have had more w/o hi suspension. Wong, Rafaela and Abreu were healthy and missed no time and all did fine on O.

We didn't have great health with our everyday players, but I do not think we had more than the norm, in terms of missing key bats.

 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I know.  I'm just feeling skeptical, maybe because of other recent offseasons where we waited for something good to happen that never did. 

 

 

Honestly, if Anthony and Campbell did start out, it’s probably not a bad thing.  The two bats they’d hopefully be replacing are Rafaela and Hamilton/Grissom/Romy.  Step up? Down? Or lateral?

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I would not say Story was ever viewed as a key element of our offense.

When we signed him, we thought he was, or could be, but he has never been a force on O for us.

Casas has done very well, when he plays. Playing 195 games out of about 320 in 2 seasons is not a catastrophic loss, but it is significant.

Devers playing hurt and then missing time hurt, a lot. he was on pace for beating his career high OPS by 70 points, in early August, and he was still over his career high on Sept 1st. He hit .568 after AUG 15th and .470 after AUG 31st (last 19 games.)

On the flip side, Duran ha 735 PAs (led MLB) and could have had more w/o hi suspension. Wong, Rafaela and Abreu were healthy and missed no time and all did fine on O.

We didn't have great health with our everyday players, but I do not think we had more than the norm, in terms of missing key bats.

 

Casas should also be considered a step up over new Yankee Dom Smith.  But only at the plate.  Not on the mound…

[Bellhorn04]

If Kennedy was being honest he'd admit that they're treating the first tax level as a ceiling.  They're probably holding some back for possible extensions-which is fine, but still, I don't get why there still needs to be a "no tax" order in place for the third year in a row. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

While the Red Sox have been running out of steam every year. 

We all know why, and it has nothing to do with bad luck. 

The Dodgers upgrade steam engines every year to power their ship.

The Red Sox haunt flea markets and garage sales for used tea pots. 

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I know.  I'm just feeling skeptical, maybe because of other recent offseasons where we waited for something good to happen that never did. 

 

 

Crochet was a huge move, the likes of which we have not seen since Chris Sale was acquired…

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Not to mention, the pitching staff, particularly the rotation, is vastly improved.  Cooper Criswell was 5th on the Sox in games started last year.  Right now he’s somewhere in the 7-10 range on the SP depth chart.  And maybe even lower.

For all of the “we lost Jansen and Martin and didn’t replace them” panic, the Sox bullpen has added (or will see the return of) Hendriks, Whitlock, Fulmer, Chapman, and Wilson.  And will probably see Kutter Crawford as well. The only pitcher from last year’s opening who will (barring injuries) be in this year’s opening day bullpen is Justin Slaten.  Relief pitchers the Sox relied on last year like Bernardino, Weissert, and Kelly are very likely depth starting out in Worcester.

But yes, they didn’t replace O’Neill.  Well, maybe with Story…

Well. a return of Story creates the replacement for O'Neill with Rafaela playing FT OF.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We all know why, and it has nothing to do with bad luck. 

The Dodgers upgrade steam engines every year to power their ship.

The Red Sox haunt flea markets and garage sales for used tea pots. 

The one summer we actually did something (Schwarber Robles, Iggy & Shaw) look what happened.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Crochet was a huge move, the likes of which we have not seen since Chris Sale was acquired…

Breslow has done some potentially very good work with the rotation.  Not complaining about his activity there.  That's not the issue. 

They have to make a couple more moves to call this is a good offseason.  They need a bat and a good reliever at the least.   

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well. a return of Story creates the replacement for O'Neill with Rafaela playing FT OF.

Or Anthony…

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well. a return of Story creates the replacement for O'Neill with Rafaela playing FT OF.

That still looks like a net minus for the offense. 

We haven't even talked much about Rafaela, the guy who has a K/BB rate that has never been sustained.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Breslow has done some potentially very good work with the rotation.  Not complaining about his activity there.  That's not the issue. 

They have to make a couple more moves to call this is a good offseason.  They need a bat and a good reliever at the least.   

They’ve added 6 relievers.  Granted that is counting Whitlock and Crawford.  But not Guerrero.

If Anthony and/or Campbell sign extensions, I would suspect that puts them in Boston immediately…

[Bellhorn04]

The FanGraphs boys may be off the mark, but when any projection system rates your position players 14th out of 15th, it's not great.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

They’ve added 6 relievers.  Granted that is counting Whitlock and Crawford.  But not Guerrero.

They haven't added any guys we actually wanted them to add (other than Whitlock).  Assembling a conglomeration of bodies might help with injuries, but won't necessarily nail more games down. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That still looks like a net minus for the offense. 

We haven't even talked much about Rafaela, the guy who has a K/BB rate that has never been sustained.

Would a lineup containing 

C - Wong

1b - Casas

2b - Campbell

3b - Devers

SS - Story

LF - Anthony

CF - Duran

RF - Abreu/Rafaela

DH - Yoshida/Refsnyder

be a step up, down or lateral?

 

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Would a lineup containing 

C - Wong

1b - Casas

2b - Campbell

3b - Devers

SS - Story

LF - Anthony

CF - Duran

RF - Abreu/Rafaela

DH - Yoshida/Refsnyder

be a step up, down or lateral?

 

Depends on a lot of things, right?  If even one of Anthony or Campbell make the leap in 2025 that will be exciting and a big boost.  But it's X factor.  You won't see it in any of the projections.

As I keep saying, I'm worried about Devers's shoulders, and I'm not all that cozy about Casas's ribs either.

I can see Story staying healthy and playing great D, but I'm less optimistic about him squaring up more baseballs.  The reality is he has a .693 OPS in a Red Sox uniform.  

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I know.  I'm just feeling skeptical, maybe because of other recent offseasons where we waited for something good to happen that never did. 

 

 

Things must be looking up compared to last year at this time. Last year all off season the town crier was running from town to town shouting, sham, sham, sham. Lot quieter this year.🤫

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They haven't added any guys we actually wanted them to add (other than Whitlock).  Assembling a conglomeration of bodies might help with injuries, but won't necessarily nail more games down. 

I get your point, and my mantra has been we still need a lock down closer, but I would not say our pen got worse losing Jansen, Martin and a bunch of scrubs and adding Chapman, Wilson, Hendriks, Fulmer and maybe some or more IP by Whitlock, Slaten and others from the better RP'ers we are bringing back from 2024.

Our pen looks better and deeper, now, but to me, not nearly as much as it needed to improve. I might be a homer in saying this, but I see more chance for an uptick on our pen projection than a down tick. We have a few pen guys with a history of having some very high skills. We need health and minimal age-related regression, along with just normal luck, in terms of ups and downs.

We do have decent pen depth and maybe some AAA starters who could be used in the pen, like Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins. (And maybe Crawford.)

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get your point, and my mantra has been we still need a lock down closer, but I would not say our pen got worse losing Jansen, Martin and a bunch of scrubs and adding Chapman, Wilson, Hendriks, Fulmer and maybe some or more IP by Whitlock, Slaten and others from the better RP'ers we are bringing back from 2024.

Our pen looks better and deeper, now, but to me, not nearly as much as it needed to improve. I might be a homer in saying this, but I see more chance for an uptick on our pen projection than a down tick. We have a few pen guys with a history of having some very high skills. We need health and minimal age-related regression, along with just normal luck, in terms of ups and downs.

We do have decent pen depth and maybe some AAA starters who could be used in the pen, like Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins. (And maybe Crawford.)

Fuller, Hendricks, and Whit all coming off injuries makes it more than unknown what you will get from any of them, so counting on them to be their former selves does not sound like a good plan to me. Unless, or if a closer, and 8th inning guy is established Jansen, and Martin may be a bigger loss than some think. Quantity does not always mean quality.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Fuller, Hendricks, and Whit all coming off injuries makes it more than unknown what you will get from any of them, so counting on them to be their former selves does not sound like a good plan to me. Unless, or if a closer, and 8th inning guy is established Jansen, and Martin may be a bigger loss than some think. Quantity does not always mean quality.

Hope is not a plan, but "the plan." last year was 25 starts from Whitlock. It's no worse now, for him, than last winter. I'd rather have Hendriks as a choice than nobody.

I guessed you missed my years long rant on why quality is more important that quantity, and how we need to switch gears towards quality. Fix the rotation by adding an ace not trying to improve your 4's and 5's. Add a lock down closer, not a bunch of mid RP'ers. I applauded the Jansen and Martin signings and agreed with you, that Jansen a year earlier would have been nicer.

That being said, it's not a bad thing that out #2 to 25 RP'ers as a group (not one by one) look better than 2024. but I'm still "crying from town to town, "GET A LOCKDOWN CLOSER!"

(BTW, you used to bash me for calling the complainers "crybabies," now you throw the term around. Just sayin'... LOL!)

[jad]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We all know why, and it has nothing to do with bad luck. 

The Dodgers upgrade steam engines every year to power their ship.

The Red Sox haunt flea markets and garage sales for used tea pots. 

... in addition to police blotters, hospitals, and retirement communities ...

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm OK with our pitching depth.  I'm complaining about our offense's depth.  A lot of key guys that had injuries last year.  Our best hitter with major shoulder pain that is supposed to magically stop.  Our DH apparently not a go for opening day.  One of our only home run threats gone. 

Like I say, go Roman, go Kristian.   

but we have Story back. at least until he gets hurt again. who knows how long that'll be. the office pool has no later than June 1st.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, jad said:

... in addition to police blotters, hospitals, and retirement communities ...

LOL!

[moonslav59]

There seems to be no talk of the Sox being linked to Scott, who may be signing this weekend. Word is, he may get close to $20M x 3-5 years, which seems absurd, but that is a lot less than the money being discussed with Bregman and Arenado.

I'd much rather have Scott than Bregman or Arenado.

Scott & Grichuk, plus maybe a trade for a catcher should be doable within the budget.

[notin]

19 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They haven't added any guys we actually wanted them to add (other than Whitlock).  Assembling a conglomeration of bodies might help with injuries, but won't necessarily nail more games down. 

Over last year’s bullpen?

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Over last year’s bullpen?

Big additions: Chapman, Hendricks, Whitlock

Big subtractions: Jansen, Martin

Still not comfortable with the back end options.  Hendricks has health/layoff/age questions. 

They need to sign Scott or Yates or Estevez.  They have the money.  There's no excuse for not doing it.

[notin]

19 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We all know why, and it has nothing to do with bad luck. 

The Dodgers upgrade steam engines every year to power their ship.

The Red Sox haunt flea markets and garage sales for used tea pots. 

You do realize the Dodgers are bigger bargain basement hunters than the Sox, right?

A $300mill roster and they still have Max Muncy playing 3b?