A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Crochet makes it significantly better, despite some worries about getting near 170-180+ IP. Buehler is a huge question marks with a higher ceiling than the one he will replace, but with way less IP expectations/predictions. Gio may or may not be better than whoever he replaces, and the IP is just as speculative.

The rotation looks better and should be better.

The pen looks about equal, at best, to me- also with many question marks.

Our catching has not improved.

We still need a big RHB.

Our defense should improve, if players come back from injuries and then stay healthy, but we said the exact same thing the last 2 winters. Our corner IF did not improve. Unless Naravaez starts 50_ games, our catching D has not improved.

There is still time to fix the remaining weak areas, but my expectations are about as low as they have been in a long time.

Criswell's 99 innings need to be replaced and Pivetta's 145. I think it can be done. If anyone is out, Kutter can pick up the slack.

Defense is the same for now. Bregman is not going to HOU. Maybe his price drops and he signs here? 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Really?  You sounded like one of the more optimistic ones about the 2025 team not that long ago.

 

He must REALLY not like Buehler. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Really?  You sounded like one of the more optimistic ones about the 2025 team not that long ago.

 

I was hoping a big chunk of the $700M offered to Soto would be spent on Fried or Burnes plus maybe Bregman or Teoscar. I doubt we get any of those 4.

We have not fixed the pen, the defense, the RHB issue or our catching.

There is still time, but we just spend $50M on hopes and prayers (Buehler, Sandoval and Chapman.) That is a $40M AAV out of the $60-70M top estimated winter budget.

I can see reason for hope, but this is not what I hoped for.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He must REALLY not like Buehler. 

I've made my views on Buehler-type signings very clear from day one.

At least he is younger and not so far removed from great seasons, but he's still a big dice roll.

I fully realize that Burnes, Fried and guys like Gio are/were dice rolls, too, but they all have/had better hopes for giving 30+ GSs than Buehler has. (Same with Sale, Nate, Sandoval, Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Paxton and  Richards)

I'm totally fine with people having high hopes for Buehler (and Sandoval, too.) I think they can be good or great again, as well, but it's not my choice. With our past history of failures on these types of pitchers, I'm not sure why you guys don't seem to even understand why I am not so joyful. Surely, you can at least understand my position, right?

[jdc69]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was hoping a big chunk of the $700M offered to Soto would be spent on Fried or Burnes plus maybe Bregman or Teoscar. I doubt we get any of those 4.

We have not fixed the pen, the defense, the RHB issue or our catching.

There is still time, but we just spend $50M on hopes and prayers (Buehler, Sandoval and Chapman.) That is a $40M AAV out of the $60-70M top estimated winter budget.

I can see reason for hope, but this is not what I hoped for.

I still think they'll get one of those bats and if they do, I think it'll be a successful off-season. I don't think they'll get a new catcher but I don't think they're trying to win the WS next season but in a few seasons. They do have to make the playoffs though.

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

I still think they'll get one of those bats and if they do, I think it'll be a successful off-season. I don't think they'll get a new catcher but I don't think they're trying to win the WS next season but in a few seasons. They do have to make the playoffs though.

I'd be fine with Narvaez as the back-up catcher, since he is a defensive catcher, but only if we fix 2 of the remaining 3 areas of need I see:

RP:  Hoffam (We wont get Scott) or maybe Estevez, if we get Bregman, who would check off 2 boxes, at once.

Corner IF D (Bregman or Arenado)

RHB: (Teoscar or Bregman)

I think adding just Teoscar and hoping Crawford and Whitlock fix the pen might be wishful thinking. No way are Hendriks, Wilson & Chapman making up for losing Jansen and Martin, by themselves.

[notin]

On 12/24/2024 at 11:54 AM, mvp 78 said:

He must REALLY not like Buehler. 

I’m not wild about him either.  And it doesn’t help that he sucked last year.  But as long as they have the depth…

[moonslav59]

Sox asked about Jones...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/red-sox-discussed-jared-jones-trade-with-pirates-during-winter-meetings.html

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not wild about him either.  And it doesn’t help that he succeed last year.  But as long as they have the depth…

He "succeeded?"

[Larry Cook]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox asked about Jones...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/red-sox-discussed-jared-jones-trade-with-pirates-during-winter-meetings.html

Jones would have been the perfect pitcher for us! But I can understand the pirates asking a king’s ransom for Jones!! 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Jones would have been the perfect pitcher for us! But I can understand the pirates asking a king’s ransom for Jones!! 

Would you give Mayer, Abreu, Cespedes, Fitts and Dobbins for him?

[Duran Is The Man]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would you give Mayer, Abreu, Cespedes, Fitts and Dobbins for him?

i wouldn't. that's nuts.

[moonslav59]

I've been rather pessimistic, recently. The state of the world and the recent loss of my dear mother and hospitalization of my 97 year old father might be part of it, but Christmas is here, so here is a joyous look at what might be in 2025.

Here are the best fWAR years by our current pitchers, since 2015 (last 10 years)

2019 was a good year for many on the pitcher list.

5.2 Giolito '19 (4.1 in '21 and 2.0 in a 12 start '20!!) His 11.3 fWAR '19-'21 ranks 7th, just ahead of Buehler at 11.2.

5.1 Buehler '19 (3.1 in '18)

4.7 Crochet '24

3.9 Houck '24 (2.3 in '21)

3.9 Hendriks '19 (2.7 in '21 and 1.6 in '22)

3.7 Sandoval '22 (2.3 in '23)

3.6 Fulmer '17 (3.1 '16)

2.7 Chapman '16 (2.1 in '19, and he had a 3.2 in 2012)

2.4 Crawford '23 (1.9 in '24)

2.0 Bell0 '24 (1.6 in '23 and 1.3 in 11 GS in '22)

1.6 Whitlock in ;21 (1.4 '22)

1.5 Slaten '24

1.5 Wilson '15 (1.1 in '16 and '17)

0.8 Winckowski '23

Could we possibly see a 4.0 to 5.0 fWAR from Buehler, Giolito, Crochet and Houck? Hey... why not? MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i wouldn't. that's nuts.

Agreed. Tell me what you would give up.

(I might give up what I listed minus Abreu.)

We'd still have Anthony, Campbell, Arias, Perales, Bleis and the Garcia brothers (and Abreu.)

This guy might be as good as Crochet, who cost us 3 of our top 8 prospects.

[Duran Is The Man]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. Tell me what you would give up.

(I might give up what I listed minus Abreu.)

We'd still have Anthony, Campbell, Arias, Perales, Bleis and the Garcia brothers (and Abreu.)

This guy might be as good as Crochet, who cost us 3 of our top 8 prospects.

might be, 

Abreu and a couple of them you mentioned not named Mayer.

i don't subscribe to BTV, but i'd be curious as to how those would work there.

[Duran Is The Man]

The Red Sox just traded Gaspar for Twins pitcher Jovani Moran who is -get this- recovering from TJS. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

The Red Sox just traded Gaspar for Twins pitcher Jovani Moran who is -get this- recovering from TJS. 

He's on a minor league deal, so this opens a slot on the 40 for Buehler. No biggie.

Narvaez was ahead of Gasper anyway. (We still need a catcher, IMO.)

[Duran Is The Man]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's on a minor league deal, so this opens a slot on the 40 for Buehler. No biggie.

Narvaez was ahead of Gasper anyway. (We still need a catcher, IMO.)

yeah, Gaspar is no big loss. does leave us really thin at catcher though.

[moonslav59]

AAV Budget Update:

29.1 Devers- 9

23.3 Story- 3 + opt

21.1 Buehler -1

19.3 Giolito-1 + opt

18.0 Yoshida- 3

10.8 Chapman- 1

9.2 Bello- 5 + opt

9.1 Sandoval-2

6.3 Rafaela -7

5.0 Hendriks- 1 +opt

4.7 Whitlock- 2

~4.5 Houck (Arb 1 of 3)

~4.3 Duran (Arb 1 of 4)

~3.0 Crawford (Arb 1 of 4)

~3.0 Crochet (Arb 2 of 3)

2.3 Wilson- 1

2.1 Refsnyder- 1

(All others are at pre-arb or minor league pay.)

175M Sub Total

$7.2 Pre-arb + $2.6 Minors on 40+ $1.7 Bonus Pool and about $0.5 Hosmer - Ref credit for no buyout= $12M. Add $18M for player benefits and the total comes to about $205M AAV.

That leaves us $36M under the first tax line and $56M under the second one.

There is room to sign any remaining FA, including Burnes or Bregman. We could maybe sign Teoscar plus Hoffman for under $36M AAV. If we go to the second line, we could sign any two FAs, but we all know, we won't.

In theory, we could sign Teoscar $21M x 3, Hoffman $15M x 4 and trade for Arenado and cash and stay under the second line.

 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah, Gaspar is no big loss. does leave us really thin at catcher though.

If we weren't so thin at catcher, he may have been traded or DFA'd by now.

The bottom of our 40 is getting better, and a little closer to a crunch, especially when you figure we may want to add Campbell, Anthony and Mayer, at some point in 2025. We could wait for players to go on the 60 day IL to do that, while also adding an extra year of control by waiting.

The DFA/Trade list is shortening...

Shugart

Chris Murphy, Bernardino or Penrod would be traded, not DFA'd.

I could see one of these three traded: DHam (the lefty,) Grissom or Romy.

Yoshida has been discussed, a lot.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we weren't so thin at catcher, he may have been traded or DFA'd by now.

The bottom of our 40 is getting better, and a little closer to a crunch, especially when you figure we may want to add Campbell, Anthony and Mayer, at some point in 2025. We could wait for players to go on the 60 day IL to do that, while also adding an extra year of control by waiting.

The DFA/Trade list is shortening...

Shugart

Chris Murphy, Bernardino or Penrod would be traded, not DFA'd.

I could see one of these three traded: DHam (the lefty,) Grissom or Romy.

Yoshida has been discussed, a lot.

This is how you know your 40 man roster is getting deeper! Teams are willing to trade for your castoffs!!!!

granted, we are not getting high quality n return yet, but we are clearly improving the roster!!!!

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

This is how you know your 40 man roster is getting deeper! Teams are willing to trade for your castoffs!!!!

granted, we are not getting high quality n return yet, but we are clearly improving the roster!!!!

I like our depth- now we need quality over quantity.

[moonslav59]

How quickly this team has become Breslow's. In just two years, half of the 40 man roster are players added to the 40, after his arrival, and a big chunk of them were acquired by him. (Many have come and gone, in between day one and now.)

Here are his 16 acquired players on the 40:

Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval, Criswell, Fitts, Priester

Slaten,  Chapman, Hendriks, Wilson, Penrod, Weissert

Grissom, Romy, Narvaez

 

These may be joining the 40, at some point:

Campbell, Arias, Cespedes, Cason

Sandlin, Early, Wehunt, Tolle, Valera, D Reyes

 

Let's see if he has one major signing in him.

[Hitch]

On 12/23/2024 at 11:12 PM, Soxlover said:

So, you referenced 2 bad deals and that makes any disagreement a debate stopper?

well, I failed to mention it. You failed to mention that Fried is more dependable than Sandoval and Buehler, so does that mean I should say there is no point in conversing?

I never wanted Snell for the same reasons. Why bring him up when I mention being dependable.

Erm...I'm not sure what is happening here. You're replying to a conversation I'm having with Moon, as Moon, but with a different name...?

I'll carry on as if I'm still speaking with Moon. 

It's not just 2 bad deals though is it? There are countless examples of long terms deals working out badly across the league. I used Sale and Price as examples as these are the most slap-you-in-the-face obvious ones because we actually lived it. 

And I mentioned Snell because there are two people in this conversation, and I was trying to ascertain what other deal you are so jealous of as you were not forthcoming with any information. Evidently it is only Fried that is causing you such angst.  Weird to me, but okay. 

I get why you and others are angry and distrusting with the ownership (though I think the argument from some that we were never in on Soto or Fried and it was all just for show is so embarrassingly stupid, I don't know where to start), but to be angry at them for the work they've done so far this off season is weird. And it's only Christmas. 

Fans want to win now, in the moment, and nothing else matters. The people in charge owe a debt to the future and so need to think about 3 and 5 and 7 years down the line, too. Giving out long term contracts to pitchers will almost certainly screw us down the line, as we've seen and lived. Why people are so desperate for us to give out these 7/8 year contracts to pitchers of 31 years of age and older is hard for me to understand. 

[Hitch]

Merry Christmas to you all. 🎅

[harmony]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been rather pessimistic, recently. The state of the world and the recent loss of my dear mother and hospitalization of my 97 year old father might be part of it, but Christmas is here, so here is a joyous look at what might be in 2025.

May you find peace and a return to your unbridled enthusiasm for the Red Sox.

Merry Christmas!

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been rather pessimistic, recently. The state of the world and the recent loss of my dear mother and hospitalization of my 97 year old father might be part of it, but Christmas is here, so here is a joyous look at what might be in 2025.

 

Didn't see this post. Sorry to hear of your loss and I hope your father is better soon. 

 

All the best to you and the family.

[Bellhorn04]

Sorry to hear about your loss, moon.  

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the kinds words, everyone. It means a lot.

Merry Christmas, everyone, and may Henry...errrr...I mean Santa bring you all nice gifts and peace.

[mvp 78]