A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we got our backup C from the NYY trade

Narvaez is supposed to be really good in all defensive areas and has shown some power and BB ability on O in the minors.

[Randy Red Sox]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Narvaez is supposed to be really good in all defensive areas and has shown some power and BB ability on O in the minors.

I am sure he will make us forget about trading Teel.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I am sure he will make us forget about trading Teel.

If he just plays plus D and bats .230 (.310 OBP)  with 10 HRs in 300 PAs, we'll be fine at catcher. Teel may end up much better, but we needed to trade from our everyday strength to add to our weak area: pitching.

The risk was big. Monty might be the ball-buster.

[moonslav59]

Anybody think Jesus Luzardo is a big enough upgrade over Crawford to risk a trade?

He's got 2 arbs left and just turned 27. He's had some injury history, so that worries me, bigtime, but I'm not sure how many of his injuries seem worrisome.

He did have a couple nice seasons from 2022-2023. That was not long ago.

279 IP 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) and a 3.40 FIP/ 1.15 WHIP 11Ks to 3BB was not bad. Maybe MIA would  take farther away prospects than most team along with Abreu or Crawford, who both have 2+ years more of team control.

Abreu, Romero and Valera for Luzardo?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If he just plays plus D and bats .230 (.310 OBP)  with 10 HRs in 300 PAs, we'll be fine at catcher. Teel may end up much better, but we needed to trade from our everyday strength to add to our weak area: pitching.

The risk was big. Monty might be the ball-buster.

The more one reflects on this trade, the more we should admit Boston earned Crochet by tanking. Two last place finishes put us in position to draft Teel and Montgomery (we didn't win the lotto by drawing the 14th and 12th picks, but by some reports were lucky both were still on the board when it was our turn).

But... no back-to-back lasts, no All-Star starting pitcher age 25. And isn't that the way parity should go? 

The incredible cost for Crochet wasn't so much two #1 draft picks going the other way, but the not credible rosters that made Boston cellar dwellers in the last place. 

[Hugh2]

On 12/13/2024 at 3:49 PM, mvp 78 said:

Is his stuff back? He wasn't very good in the regular season. His spin rates seem to be down from what they used to be. 

In the playoffs yes, his stuff looked much better

[mvp 78]

4 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we got our backup C from the NYY trade

The 3rd catcher.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Anybody think Jesus Luzardo is a big enough upgrade over Crawford to risk a trade?

He's got 2 arbs left and just turned 27. He's had some injury history, so that worries me, bigtime, but I'm not sure how many of his injuries seem worrisome.

He did have a couple nice seasons from 2022-2023. That was not long ago.

279 IP 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) and a 3.40 FIP/ 1.15 WHIP 11Ks to 3BB was not bad. Maybe MIA would  take farther away prospects than most team along with Abreu or Crawford, who both have 2+ years more of team control.

Abreu, Romero and Valera for Luzardo?

No. Luzardo has never quite put it together. He’s a mid rotation guy and your trade is an overpay for what he brings IMO.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

In the playoffs yes, his stuff looked much better

For 10 innings. The rest of his season was a mess.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The more one reflects on this trade, the more we should admit Boston earned Crochet by tanking. Two last place finishes put us in position to draft Teel and Montgomery (we didn't win the lotto by drawing the 14th and 12th picks, but by some reports were lucky both were still on the board when it was our turn).

But... no back-to-back lasts, no All-Star starting pitcher age 25. And isn't that the way parity should go? 

The incredible cost for Crochet wasn't so much two #1 draft picks going the other way, but the not credible rosters that made Boston cellar dwellers in the last place. 

All true, and it is also a tribute to our farm system to see that we got the most sought after pitcher of the winter without parting with a top 3 prospects. Of course, 4, 5 and 8 is very costly, but I doubt any other team could have gotten him without trading a top 3 or 2 of their top 3 prospects.

BTW, part of the "tank" was letting Bogey walk, and we drafted Campbell with the comp pick we got for losing him. We got Anthony with the comp pick for letting ERod walk. We got Mayer with the 4th pick, overall, after the biggest tank year of all in 2020.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No. Luzardo has never quite put it together. He’s a mid rotation guy and your trade is an overpay for what he brings IMO.

Would you trade Abreu and Valera or just Abreu one for one?

Another plus of upgrading Crawford would be adding Crawford to the pen over someone like Fulmer, Bernardino, Penrod or whoever else our 8th RP'er would have been.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would you trade Abreu and Valera or just Abreu one for one?

Another plus of upgrading Crawford would be adding Crawford to the pen over someone like Fulmer, Bernardino, Penrod or whoever else our 8th RP'er would have been.

I would not trade Abreu for Luzardo. Luzardo only has one season with more WAR than the season Abreu just had. He’s a “grass isn’t always greener” pitcher to me.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If he just plays plus D and bats .230 (.310 OBP)  with 10 HRs in 300 PAs, we'll be fine at catcher. Teel may end up much better, but we needed to trade from our everyday strength to add to our weak area: pitching.

The risk was big. Monty might be the ball-buster.

the catching position is likely worse than the pitching

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the catching position is likely worse than the pitching

Pretty close.

I gotta think Wong is spending his winter working on his defense, but then again, he probably has already spent  a few on it, with few results.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Anybody think Jesus Luzardo is a big enough upgrade over Crawford to risk a trade?

He's got 2 arbs left and just turned 27. He's had some injury history, so that worries me, bigtime, but I'm not sure how many of his injuries seem worrisome.

He did have a couple nice seasons from 2022-2023. That was not long ago.

279 IP 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) and a 3.40 FIP/ 1.15 WHIP 11Ks to 3BB was not bad. Maybe MIA would  take farther away prospects than most team along with Abreu or Crawford, who both have 2+ years more of team control.

Abreu, Romero and Valera for Luzardo?

I thought you were done with injury prone pitchers 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I thought you were done with injury prone pitchers 

I am, but Luzardo is less of one than Buehler.

[Thunder]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Anybody think Jesus Luzardo is a big enough upgrade over Crawford to risk a trade?

He's got 2 arbs left and just turned 27. He's had some injury history, so that worries me, bigtime, but I'm not sure how many of his injuries seem worrisome.

He did have a couple nice seasons from 2022-2023. That was not long ago.

279 IP 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) and a 3.40 FIP/ 1.15 WHIP 11Ks to 3BB was not bad. Maybe MIA would  take farther away prospects than most team along with Abreu or Crawford, who both have 2+ years more of team control.

Abreu, Romero and Valera for Luzardo?

With each day that goes by, I grow more and more frustrated that our biggest acquisition of the winter so far came via trade rather than free agency. I don't really want to lose Abreu and more good prospects for a relatively risky/injury prone starter, when we could get other options on the market for free. It just sucks that most of those great options on the market have already been taken due to our ownership team's ineptitude.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Thunder said:

With each day that goes by, I grow more and more frustrated that our biggest acquisition of the winter so far came via trade rather than free agency. I don't really want to lose Abreu and more good prospects for a relatively risky/injury prone starter, when we could get other options on the market for free. It just sucks that most of those great options on the market have already been taken due to our ownership team's ineptitude.

I really like Abreu, a lot. He plays good D in RF, and had 5 years of control. I'd prefer replacing Rafaela with Anthony than Abreu, and this is a damn good OF on O and D:

LF: Duran (Ref as back up vs LHPs)

CF: Anthony v R/ Rafaela v L (back-up v R)

RF: Abreu v R/ Anthony v L

We can take care of all our needs via free agency and should not have to trade Abreu or anyone else.

We can sign 3 players and still be under the tax line:

Bregman, Flaherty, Estevez & E Diaz

Burnes, Teoscar, E Diaz (Then we can trade an OF for a RP)

Teoscar, Flaherty, Estevez & E Diaz

Hell, we could sign Burnes and Bregman or Teoscar and nobody else.

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

For 10 innings. The rest of his season was a mess.

Yes but stuff is stuff.  You don’t just randomly spin a ball so much at random or accidentally throw 97 mph.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes but stuff is stuff.  You don’t just randomly spin a ball so much at random or accidentally throw 97 mph.

It's never been about stuff.  I don't doubt that, at all.

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like Abreu, a lot. He plays good D in RF, and had 5 years of control. I'd prefer replacing Rafaela with Anthony than Abreu, and this is a damn good OF on O and D:

LF: Duran (Ref as back up vs LHPs)

CF: Anthony v R/ Rafaela v L (back-up v R)

RF: Abreu v R/ Anthony v L

We can take care of all our needs via free agency and should not have to trade Abreu or anyone else.

We can sign 3 players and still be under the tax line:

Bregman, Flaherty, Estevez & E Diaz

Burnes, Teoscar, E Diaz (Then we can trade an OF for a RP)

Teoscar, Flaherty, Estevez & E Diaz

Hell, we could sign Burnes and Bregman or Teoscar and nobody else.

Why not keep Duran in CF? He was really really good there in 2024. I don’t see him going back to LF

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Why not keep Duran in CF? He was really really good there in 2024. I don’t see him going back to LF

Well, with Rafaela, Anthony and Abreu, what would you do?

LF: Anthony

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu

4th Rafaela

[a700hitter]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I am, but Luzardo is less of one than Buehler.

He has also been less effective than Buehler when healthy.

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

For 10 innings. The rest of his season was a mess.

Not really.  He had 4 Game Scores of 50 or better in September.  Looks more to me like a guy who was gradually finding his stuff again.

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, with Rafaela, Anthony and Abreu, what would you do?

LF: Anthony

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu

4th Rafaela

I think it would take a monster spring training for Anthony to start the year with Boston. So for now I have him starting the year in Worcester! 

I see our opening day outfield as Duran-rafeala-abreau. With refsynder as the 4th outfielder! 

I think abreau makes a year two improvement offensively while decreasing strike outs a bit! Defensively he remains above average 

I think rafeala makes a year two improvement offensively and cuts down on his strike outs a bit while playing above average defensive.  
But rafeala’s offensive trajectory is tied to the health of story and how much time he spends bouncing around the infield! 

duran has to have some regression in his offensive numbers, but should still be above average offensively and average defensively 

I think we have one of the best young outfields in baseball and with Anthony on the doorstep, we have tremendous quality depth as well 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not really.  He had 4 Game Scores of 50 or better in September.  Looks more to me like a guy who was gradually finding his stuff again.

He was not good, down the stretch in 2024:

Last 9 starts (42 IP) 5.95 ERA/.553 FIP/.876 OPSA

Last 6 starts (31 IP) 4.35/4.65/.770

Sept (last 5 starts) 4.44/4.90/.787

The best I could find was his last 3 starts: 16 IP 3.31/3.60/.616 which is decent to good.

Okay, he might be the next Cris Sale, although he has never had 2 years in a row with over 138 IP. Only once has he had 2 in a row with over 65 IP. I get that this would be a one year deal, so we are not asking for 2 in a row, but we'd be trying to catch lightning in a bottle, and the Sale example showed he caught it once in a 6 year timeframe. Those aren't good odds.

If JH decides to spend big, this winter, and Buehrle is signed as depth- pretty expensive at that, I'd be okay. Just as we said the Kluber signing would have been okay had we signed a couple other guys, too. Burnes & Beuhler- fine. Fkaherty or Manea and Buhler- more understandable and possible. Pivetta and Buhler could happen.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think it would take a monster spring training for Anthony to start the year with Boston. So for now I have him starting the year in Worcester! 

I see our opening day outfield as Duran-rafeala-abreau. With refsynder as the 4th outfielder! 

I think abreau makes a year two improvement offensively while decreasing strike outs a bit! Defensively he remains above average 

I think rafeala makes a year two improvement offensively and cuts down on his strike outs a bit while playing above average defensive.  
But rafeala’s offensive trajectory is tied to the health of story and how much time he spends bouncing around the infield! 

duran has to have some regression in his offensive numbers, but should still be above average offensively and average defensively 

I think we have one of the best young outfields in baseball and with Anthony on the doorstep, we have tremendous quality depth as well 

I've been listing out what players I'd like to see at all slots on the 26, but I do not think these are the guys that will be on the 26 opening day. They may not even end up playing most of the games where I slotted them, by season's end.

A while ago, I suggested the odds that two prospects from Campbell, Anthony and Mayer make the opening day roster are very slim, even if we have an injury or two. I still think that. I'm guessing the odds just one makes it is less than 50-50, unless we have a key injury or two (at SS, 2B or OF.)

The fact that none of the 3 need to be on the 40 is a major factor, but I also think it goes beyond that. Teams like to keep as many options on the table, as possible, on opening day, even if it means keeping some more promising players or prospects off the 26 and 40, if they have options or are not needed on the 40. The other reason is this: not only do we want to keep many options available, the options we have seem to have some promise and in some ways have earned a right to prove they belong on the 26 and 40. I will go player by player (assuming no trades or additions):

Devers, Duran, Casas, Story, Wong and Abreu are all locked into starting roles. Abreu will sit vs LHPs and Ref will play vs LHPs. That's 7 out of the 13 slots. I have Narvaez as the back-up catcher, but it could be Gasper. That's 8. Now the next 5 before we get to Anthony, Campbell & Mayer.

Rafaela almost certainly will be on the 26, even if as the supersub 4th OF'er and middle IF utility. (He's fine at 2B, but should only be used at SS in an emergency, IMO.) He's #9 in my book.

DHam has earned another look. He was fine on defense, at 2B, something we have not seen, very much for years. He hits RHPs well enough (.729,) while offering amazing baserunning skills. His value as a PR should not be undersold. We do have too many LHB, but to me he will be on the opening day 26. (Campbell may be better, but we will keep him off the 26 and 40, at least until he gains the added year of contol, IMO.) He's #10

Grissom did not "earn" a slot by his 2024 play on O or D. I had hoped he'd be better on D than he showed in limited action, but he was also no whiz on D in the minors, too. I can see the argument that Campbell should take his slot, but I think we have too much invested in Grissom to not give him a look. Now, if he looks awful in ST'ing, he still has options left, so we could have the next two guys make the 26 over him, but Grissom will surely stay on the 40 into April.

Romy showed some promise, and some people think he could break out, at any moment and shock us all. He hit a decent .723 in 216 PAs and showed 20 HR power, if extended to 650 PAs. He is also a much better defender at SS than DHam and Grissom, and he can play 1B and 3B without embarrassing himself. He's kind of the unmentioned guy on the team, but he bats RH'd and hit .879 vs LHPs. One could easily argue he should make the 26 over Grissom, but we could also see DHam, Grissom and Romy on the opening day roster.

#13 has been a big talk, this winter: Yoshida. If he's healthy and not traded away, I have to think he gets a chance to show he can hit, even if just to build trade value. I do think having Anthony or Campbell on the 26 would make for a better team and add flexibility for Cora to juggle players around, but I think this will be the opening day 13:

C: Wong and Narvaez

1B: Casas (Romy/Wong)

2B: DHam-Grissom platoon (possible Romy batting vs LHPs)

SS: Story, Romy

3B: Devers (Romy, Grissom)

LF: Duran v R and Ref vs L

CF: Rafaela v R and Duran v L

RF: Abreu (given a chance to his LHPs)

DH: Yoshida

(We could platoon DH with Yoshida and Ref and just play Duran-Rafaela-Abreu FT in the OF with Ref as the 4th OF'er.)

The line-up would be better with Anthony as the RF'er vs LHPs and CF'er vs RHPs, so there is a strong argument to have him on the opening day roster. Campbell at 2B has a similar claim, but I think we let the above 13 players have a chance to show they deserves a spot on the 26. 

Sogard, Gasper and Eaton could even get the first call-up over Anthony, Campbell and Mayer, especially if we seek to add extra years of control to our 3 top prospects.

Does anyone think the odds are better than 50-50 one makes the 26? (I could see 60-40.)

I seriously doubt 2 make it, unless Story is hurt, Yoshida is on the IL or an OF'er gets hurt, too

[moonslav59]

Enmanuel Valdez traded to PIT for RHP Joe Vogatsky. He was drafted 19th by PIT in the amateur draft out of James Madison U. He did not play any proball, this past summer. He's projected as a pen arm.

[notin]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I would not trade Abreu for Luzardo. Luzardo only has one season with more WAR than the season Abreu just had. He’s a “grass isn’t always greener” pitcher to me.

Not to mention, he’s coming off of back surgery.  TJ is one thing; everyone has an idea how long recovery is and how a pitcher can fare afterwards.  But back surgery for a pitcher is comparatively uncharted waters…

[moonslav59]

Projecting the 13 man pitching staff is not easy. We almost certainly will be adding an arm or two, before opening day- hopefully a #1-2 SP'er and a closer, but that could prove to be too expensive for JH to go along with.

Here is my stab at the opening day 13:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Criswell (long relief/spot starter)

RP: Henriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson (the token lefty)

I actually like our AAA pitching depth, but it would be greatly improved if Criswell and Guerrero were bumped off the 26.

SP: (Criswell)  Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, (not on 40: Fulmer, Gambrell, Drohan, Sandlin, I Coffey)

RP: (Guerrero) Bernardino, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, Shugart, (not on 40:  I Campbell, Mata, Mills, Hoppe, Troye)

I'd love to see us add Burnes and Hoffman or Estevez, but those seem like long odds.