A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Or like Crochet

True.

I was referencing your comment about trying to be a SP'er, then going back to doing very well in the pen- like Starhm did with Philly.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

To me, Bregman and Arrenado are not in the same universe. Mostly because of Bregmans defensive versatility (he's a SS by trade). You can play Breg at 2b, ss not Arrenado, also Breg had a very good second half of the season with his bat also.

I'm not sure they are going to really sign Bregman to move him around the IF. He hasn't played SS the past 5 seasons and he's a career -5 OAA at the position in about 100 games from when he was MUCH younger. 

2B? It doesn't make sense with Campbell and Mayer in the pipeline. 3B makes sense if you're going to move Raffy to 1B/DH. 

[a700hitter]

Breslow is deep into the Dumpster to find this guy.

Red Sox Have Spoken With John Means

December 12th, 2024 at 12:20pm CST • By Leo Morgenstern

It seems that Corbin Burnes isn’t the only former Orioles All-Star to catch the Red Sox’s eye. According to a report from Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Boston has had some discussions with free agent starter John Means. Once a promising hurler, the southpaw’s career has been derailed by injuries over the last three years. He underwent his second Tommy John procedure this past May and will not be able to pitch for most of the 2025 season.

An 11th-round draft pick in 2014, Means was never a highly-ranked prospect. However, he pitched reasonably well throughout the minor leagues and earned a spot on Baltimore’s Opening Day roster in 2019. After three strong appearances from the bullpen, he made his first big league start in mid-April and continued to thrive out of the rotation. He was named an All-Star that summer and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting that fall.

 

 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

Breslow is deep into the Dumpster to find this guy.

 

Red Sox Have Spoken With John Means

December 12th, 2024 at 12:20pm CST • By Leo Morgenstern

It seems that Corbin Burnes isn’t the only former Orioles All-Star to catch the Red Sox’s eye. According to a report from Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Boston has had some discussions with free agent starter John Means. Once a promising hurler, the southpaw’s career has been derailed by injuries over the last three years. He underwent his second Tommy John procedure this past May and will not be able to pitch for most of the 2025 season.

An 11th-round draft pick in 2014, Means was never a highly-ranked prospect. However, he pitched reasonably well throughout the minor leagues and earned a spot on Baltimore’s Opening Day roster in 2019. After three strong appearances from the bullpen, he made his first big league start in mid-April and continued to thrive out of the rotation. He was named an All-Star that summer and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting that fall.

 

 

Means had a pretty decent run from 19-21, but ended up giving up a lot of HR's. If he's cheap, I don't see the harm in finding more depth for the back of the rotation. Sox haven't been great at developing starting pitching so they need all the help they can get. 

[Randy Red Sox]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Means had a pretty decent run from 19-21, but ended up giving up a lot of HR's. If he's cheap, I don't see the harm in finding more depth for the back of the rotation. Sox haven't been great at developing starting pitching so they need all the help they can get. 

the guy won't be able to pitch next year.  Haven't we done this enough times already ???????????

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the guy won't be able to pitch next year.  Haven't we done this enough times already ???????????

No they clearly have a fetish for it. They just can't help themselves. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No they clearly have a fetish for it. They just can't help themselves. 

Maybe, one time it will work.

Paxton probably came the closest to actually almost helping the team for a brief moment or two.

Now, let's see what Hendriks and Fulmer can do.

[moonslav59]

Pirates are listening to offers for Mitch Keller.

He seems to be a decent #3, but I hope we do better than him.

[moonslav59]

The big three remaining, IMO, are Burnes, Bregman and Teoscar.

What are the odds we get one?

I won't ask about two.

If we get one, what's the odds we add one from:

Manaea, Flaherty, Pivetta, Scott, Hoffman, Santander?

Maybe, the best we can hope for Burnes and Santander or Flaherty and Bregman.

 

[Thunder]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Pirates are listening to offers for Mitch Keller.

He seems to be a decent #3, but I hope we do better than him.

He's better than a decent #3. Take it from a Pirates season ticket holder

[Thunder]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the guy won't be able to pitch next year.  Haven't we done this enough times already ???????????

Takes "investing in the future" to another level

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Thunder said:

He's better than a decent #3. Take it from a Pirates season ticket holder

I could call him an okay #2.

Taking his best sample size (2022-2024) out of 150 SP'ers with 200 IP:

35th in fWAR (7.5) Solid #2

69th xFIP (3.91) Almost a #3 (62nd in FIP-)

74th in K-BB% (15.3%) middle #3

80th in ERA- (97) Closer to a #4 than a #2.

I'd say a tweener between a 2 and a 3, by the numbers.

[Larry Cook]

I think the pirates, mariners and braves have some Intriguing young arms. We should be talking to them every day 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think the pirates, mariners and braves have some Intriguing young arms. We should be talking to them every day 

We just traded 3 of our best 7 everyday prospects for a pitcher. I'm fine with getting more pitching, but the next one better be with 4+ years of control.

We do still have Mayer, Arias and Romero as SS prospects and Campbell and Cespedes at 2B. This on top of Story (3 yrs) Grissom, DHam and Rafaela, who have 4+ years of control and can play 2B. Since Campbell can play OF, too, we seem to have more than we need there, too, despite just losing Montgomery.

Who could we get for Mayer and Abreu get us for a 4+ year pitcher?

 

[notin]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Means had a pretty decent run from 19-21, but ended up giving up a lot of HR's. If he's cheap, I don't see the harm in finding more depth for the back of the rotation. Sox haven't been great at developing starting pitching so they need all the help they can get. 

Means is looking at a deal anywhere from minor league contract to $1.5mill (aka The Fulmer Deal), and people are all up in arms like this is their Big Move for the off-season…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Means is looking at a deal anywhere from minor league contract to $1.5mill (aka The Fulmer Deal), and people are all up in arms like this is their Big Move for the off-season…

Did I miss something?

Who is upset about signing anyone to a minor league deal?

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, notin said:

Means is looking at a deal anywhere from minor league contract to $1.5mill (aka The Fulmer Deal), and people are all up in arms like this is their Big Move for the off-season…

If you can get him on a MiLB rehab deal, why not?

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We just traded 3 of our best 7 everyday prospects for a pitcher. I'm fine with getting more pitching, but the next one better be with 4+ years of control.

We do still have Mayer, Arias and Romero as SS prospects and Campbell and Cespedes at 2B. This on top of Story (3 yrs) Grissom, DHam and Rafaela, who have 4+ years of control and can play 2B. Since Campbell can play OF, too, we seem to have more than we need there, too, despite just losing Montgomery.

Who could we get for Mayer and Abreu get us for a 4+ year pitcher?

 

If we kick in casas and Sandlin, we can push hard for Jared jones 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If we kick in casas and Sandlin, we can push hard for Jared jones 

Casas, Mayer, Abreu and Sandlin for Jared Jones? 

Why would we trade all that for a short, two pitch guy, without great command who couldn't get through last season without an injury? You're betting on him turning into an ace for that haul. There's a very good chance he doesn't get there. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If we kick in casas and Sandlin, we can push hard for Jared jones 

Mayer, Casas, Abreu & Sandlin for JJ?

I don't do that. Skenes, yes.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas, Mayer, Abreu and Sandlin for Jared Jones? 

Why would we trade all that for a short, two pitch guy, without great command who couldn't get through last season without an injury? You're betting on him turning into an ace for that haul. There's a very good chance he doesn't get there. 

desperate larry!

Sorry, Larry, but sometimes you reap what you sow, man. 😉

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer, Casas, Abreu & Sandlin for JJ?

I don't do that. Skenes, yes.

Smash the trade button for Skenes, not JJ. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Smash the trade button for Skenes, not JJ. 

And Skenes would empty the cupboard.

Let's back to some free agent pitcher talk here! 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And Skenes would empty the cupboard.

Let's back to some free agent pitcher talk here! 

Skenes would take two of our top 3 plus more.

I'd be okay with Mayer, Cespedes, Bleis, Perales and Fitts, but I doubt PIT considers that.

[Bellhorn04]

Plus if Pitt intends to continue as a viable baseball franchise, they shouldn't be trading Skenes at all, needless to say.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Plus if Pitt intends to continue as a viable baseball franchise, they shouldn't be trading Skenes at all, needless to say.

Exactly. They may trade Mitch Keller. Maybe Reynolds.

[Larry Cook]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

desperate larry!

Sorry, Larry, but sometimes you reap what you sow, man. 😉

It is all good! I have a higher value for Jared Jones than the rest of you I guess! Which is ok 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And Skenes would empty the cupboard.

Let's back to some free agent pitcher talk here! 

I think we all sense the Red Sox will keep making offers just below their discomfort zone to good free agent pitchers, thus ensuring more flea market pick-ups for the tinker boys to work on for try-outs in the Grapefruit League.

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And Skenes would empty the cupboard.

Let's back to some free agent pitcher talk here! 

Top pitchers left per projected fWAR:

Burnes - 30 seems very unlikely per reports, but should be priority

Flaherty - 29 could have signed him last offseason, but didn't

Pivetta - 32 pass for what it would take to sign him

Scherzer - 40 no

Kershaw - 37 no

Manaea - 33 are you kidding me

Gibson - 37 no

Lynn - 38 no

Morton - 41 no

Heaney - 34 yuck

Verlander - 42 no

Buehler - 30 coming off TJS and had 10 good innings in the playoffs, wow

Chat, what do we think? 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I think we all sense the Red Sox will keep making offers just below their discomfort zone to good free agent pitchers, thus ensuring more flea market pick-ups for the tinker boys to work on for try-outs in the Grapefruit League.

The flea market pickups below Buehler aren't better than what we already have. I guess they find AAA depth? IDK.