A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

On 11/5/2024 at 7:44 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the chances Pivetta accepts the offer are pretty strong.

But even if he accepts, the Sox can renegotiate a multi year deal at a lower AAV - maybe 2 years at $35mill or 3 years $46.5mill…

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

But even if he accepts, the Sox can renegotiate a multi year deal at a lower AAV - maybe 2 years at $35mill or 3 years $46.5mill…

Agreed, and his value with a QO attached drops, a little on the open market, whereas, we have the inside edge on getting him to take a longer offer at lower AAV, if that's what we want (and him, too.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

But even if he accepts, the Sox can renegotiate a multi year deal at a lower AAV - maybe 2 years at $35mill or 3 years $46.5mill…

But if the Red Sox sign Pivetta, they can't get draft pick compensation -- which is the whole reason for offering him the Qualifying Offer... (they don't really want to pay anyone $21 million dollars for one year.)

It would also go against team philosophy this decade of letting mediocre starting pitching go, so they could use the savings on more one-and-done disasters or two-year injured rehab body surfers who might ride a wave to shore after the All-Star break -- "not this one, the next one."

[notin]

58 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But if the Red Sox sign Pivetta, they can't get draft pick compensation -- which is the whole reason for offering him the Qualifying Offer... (they don't really want to pay anyone $21 million dollars for one year.)

It would also go against team philosophy this decade of letting mediocre starting pitching go, so they could use the savings on more one-and-done disasters or two-year injured rehab body surfers who might ride a wave to shore after the All-Star break -- "not this one, the next one."

Pivetta isn’t going to decline.  

[moonslav59]

Assuming Pivetta takes the QO, here might be the start of our 2025 AAV budget:

$150 on 13 players: 29.1 Devers, 23.3 Story, 21.0 Pivetta, 19.3 Giolito, 18.0 Yoshida, 9.2 Bello, 6.3 Rafaela, 5 Hendriks, ~4.7 Whitlock, 4.5 Houck (arb 1), ~4.3 Duran (arb 1), ~3.0 Crawford (arb 1), 2.1 Refsnyder

+$20M Benefits and bonus pool, $11M Pre-arb majors and $3M minors on 40.
 

$184M TOTAL

The CBT line is $244M in 2025, leaving us about $60M "under."  Did I miss anything?

I doubt we do this:

$21M x 2 Nate Eovaldi

$15M x 4 Tanner Scott

$11M x 3 Carlos Estevez

 

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Pivetta isn’t going to decline.  

I think he wont decline either, but I certainly don’t think it’s a slam dunk.

pitching is the most precious commodity.  A team in compete now mode that needs a #3 #4 starter and believes in Pivetta might not care about a late round first round pick.

also, if signing team is signing other free agents.  They might not be giving up a 1st rounder for Pivetta but rather a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

not betting on it, but I think there’s a chance he declines 

[win red sox]

Penalties for signing players who reject their QO

Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. However, a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture. (Players who are unsigned after the start of the MLB Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to Draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a Draft pick.)

Three tiers of Draft pick forfeiture -- based on the financial status of the signing team -- are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer:

• Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well.

• Revenue-sharing recipients: A team that receives revenue-sharing money will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest pick.

• All other teams: If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest pick.

(Note: Each pick in the first 10 rounds of the Draft has an assigned value, and the total for each of a club's selections equals what it can spend on signing bonuses for players selected in those rounds without incurring a penalty. When a team forfeits a Draft pick, it also surrenders the accompanying bonus pool money associated that pick, independent from any money forfeited from its international bonus pool per the rules below.)

[Larry Cook]

It looks like bres-slow is going all in on fried!! That is what Atlanta radio guys are saying based on their sources 

[Soxlover]

He better get this one right

[Larry Cook]

To do list:

1.) trade yoshida.

2.) get a sp1 and sp2.

3.) get two quality relievers. 
4.) get a right handed bat. 
 

 

[moonslav59]

1. Acquire 2-3 solid SP'ers (1 closer type and a LHP)

2. Acquire 1 ace or 2 solid SP'ers.

3. Acquire a solid catcher.

(Gravy: RHB, dump $30-35M of the $54M owed Yoshida)

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

To do list:

1.) trade yoshida.

2.) get a sp1 and sp2.

3.) get two quality relievers. 
4.) get a right handed bat. 
 

 

Yoshida can't be traded, not coming off surgery.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yoshida can't be traded, not coming off surgery.

It's against the rules?

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

It's against the rules?

Nope, perfectly legal.  Heck, someone might even offer to pay $2 million a year of his salary.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, perfectly legal.  Heck, someone might even offer to pay $2 million a year of his salary.

Then, I guess I don't know your definition of "can't."

(Like you don't know mine for "half of a half percent." LOL)

[Bellhorn04]

Let me rephrase: the timing to trade Yoshida could not be worse.  Therefore I don't think it's something that will be explored this offseason.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, perfectly legal.  Heck, someone might even offer to pay $2 million a year of his salary.

whaaaat....really? Henry and his FO clowns regularly pay shitloads of cash for injured players. you mean no other team does this?

 

 

 

 

 

 

fyi....i would have made this green if i knew how.

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Let me rephrase: the timing to trade Yoshida could not be worse.  Therefore I don't think it's something that will be explored this offseason.

Isn’t trading the dead weight what we are paying bres-slow to figure out 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t trading the dead weight what we are paying bres-slow to figure out 

It may be more about the timing.

While trading Yoshida, this winter does open up a roster slot, waiting until he shows he's healthy might get a b better return in trade.

I don't see a major roster crunch, unless we try to add 5-6 players. We can always wait until opening day, put someone on the 60 day IL, and then add a top 4 prospect to the 40 and 26.

[notin]

On 11/9/2024 at 10:15 AM, moonslav59 said:

Then, I guess I don't know your definition of "can't."

(Like you don't know mine for "half of a half percent." LOL)

Can’t, a contraction of “can not” can mean either 1) “not able to” perform a task as in “I can’t lift a blue whale with one arm.” It can also mean 2) “not permitted to” perform a task, as in “I can’t go to art museum in the nude again.”  
 

I’m guessing he meant definition (1)…

[notin]

18 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t trading the dead weight what we are paying bres-slow to figure out 

According to many, we’re paying him to add more deadweight…

[Randy Red Sox]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It may be more about the timing.

While trading Yoshida, this winter does open up a roster slot, waiting until he shows he's healthy might get a b better return in trade.

I don't see a major roster crunch, unless we try to add 5-6 players. We can always wait until opening day, put someone on the 60 day IL, and then add a top 4 prospect to the 40 and 26.

I don't see Yoshida having much trade value at any point. 

[notin]

On 11/6/2024 at 5:47 PM, Hugh2 said:

I think he wont decline either, but I certainly don’t think it’s a slam dunk.

pitching is the most precious commodity.  A team in compete now mode that needs a #3 #4 starter and believes in Pivetta might not care about a late round first round pick.

also, if signing team is signing other free agents.  They might not be giving up a 1st rounder for Pivetta but rather a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

not betting on it, but I think there’s a chance he declines 

If Pivetta does decline, it still didn’t mean he’s gone.  The Sox have the advantage for signing him in that they don’t give up any draft pick compensation…

[Hugh2]

On 11/6/2024 at 3:41 PM, notin said:

Pivetta isn’t going to decline.  

The more I think about it the more I say he is going to reject it.  
 

the more I think about how undervalued the pitching market gets the stronger I feel about this.  

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If Pivetta does decline, it still didn’t mean he’s gone.  The Sox have the advantage for signing him in that they don’t give up any draft pick compensation…

Yeah but if you get a pick back whatever, just sign a guy like Fried and upgrade the rotation. 
 

sure they have an advantage, but Pivetta doesn’t make the team any better

[notin]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Yeah but if you get a pick back whatever, just sign a guy like Fried and upgrade the rotation. 
 

sure they have an advantage, but Pivetta doesn’t make the team any better

I like how you casually drop in “just sign a guy like Fried” as if they’re equivalent options in both money and years.

Obviously, there is something about Pivetta the Sox like enough to offer him $21mill, and if you think he’s going to decline, you’re saying other teams see it as well…

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I like how you casually drop in “just sign a guy like Fried” as if they’re equivalent options in both money and years.

Obviously, there is something about Pivetta the Sox like enough to offer him $21mill, and if you think he’s going to decline, you’re saying other teams see it as well…

Yeah I like it too, Pivetta is a BOTRS, Sox have plenty of that. Fried is a guy who can slide into the top of your rotation.

 

thats exactly what the Sox need and exactly what they should do

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I don't see Yoshida having much trade value at any point. 

Well, even Bell mentioned $2M.

I think, if he's healthy, we can find someone to take him at about a $4-7M a year cost to them. (Whatever they pay, we save.

[oldtimer]

7 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I don't see Yoshida having much trade value at any point. 

He may have value in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. He would fill a major need for a #1 or #2 starter and he is only 23 years old and maybe not as costly in the budget cap as others we might get. In addition, we could use our tradable prospects to reel in relief pitchers and/or a right hand power bat.

[moonslav59]

I'm all for signing a young Japanese pitcher, but I do not want it toe be the centerpiece of building up the 2025 rotation. If Pivetta accepts the QO, like I think he will, or agrees to an extension, that just keeps us treading water. While it's nice to not go backwards, we need to take a massive step forward  with out rotation, and more importantly, our pen.

Minimum: 1 major rotation addition and two major pen additions, ideally a closer and a lefty.

I'd love to see Fried & Sasaki. Also, Tanner Scott (a LH closer) and one from Estevez, Hoffman or Holmes.

Is Sewald coming off an injury? If not, I'd like him, too.