A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nah, Masa just seems like low-lying fruit on the 'how do we get better' tree.  But he's not, unfortunately.

The low flying fruit is the bullpen.  Moving Yoshida might make some happy, but it’s no guarantee of getting better regardless of how easy it is…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nah, Masa just seems like low-lying fruit on the 'how do we get better' tree.  But he's not, unfortunately.

Get a catcher that can catch? 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nah, Masa just seems like low-lying fruit on the 'how do we get better' tree.  But he's not, unfortunately.

I think signing a front line starter and a closer gets this team better, not subtracting from the bottom of the roster. 

At the end of the day, if Masa is ever healthy and can play a full season he be a 1 WAR guy who can hit off the bench and play LF when needed (which hopefully isn't often).  He's not hurting the team

Of course one has to wonder if he gets hurt and can only start 100 games or so, in which case there will be another roster spot open up anyways 

Perhaps there's a bench bat out there that will take the Sox from 81 wins to 90 wins.  If there's a 9 WAR bench player.......I'd sure like to meet him. 

[Randy Red Sox]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's an extremely pessimistic view.  So you guys must think very little of all the young talent on the team. 

Casas/Bello/Crawford/Duran/Hamilton/Abreu.  Sure maybe Duran had a career year but you must think very little of all the talent on this team to think the aggregate doesn't have the capacity to grow.  If you truly believe that then you must think that this team is years away from contention because baseball is a team sport. 

Do we also think very little of the crop coming up in Teel/Anthony/Mayer/Campbell.  The big 4? when is the last time the Sox had 4 guys top 25 all on the cusp of the major leagues.  Even if 3 of those guys busted and one became a star that improves the team by more than ONE game. 

Here's some food for thought. The 2016 Boston Red Sox who went from last place to first place was almost EXACTLY the same team.  They had a young core that got better and other players who had a bounce back year. 

This 2025 could be that team, and if they go out and sign a starter and closer, guys like Burnes and Scott they could be world series contenders. 

what has the team done the past few offseason to make a fan optimistic?

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nobody knows what any of the Fab Four can contribute in 2025.

I'm pessimistic about 2025 for a few reasons:

1) We played .420 ball after the ASB, and it can't be chalked up to an abnormal number of injuries.

2) Health status of Devers and Yoshida.

3) From an 81-81 team, we lose O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin. 

4) I think there's a good chance the brain trust surveys all this and decides 2025 is another punt year.

There are better times ahead, but I don't think they start in 2025, based on all the negative factors and uncertainty, and the "patient" approach we have seen. 

 

I think the team should be better next year with the core they have and have coming up. 

I think the team could be MUCH better if they add quality pitching via free agency and trade. 

I'm optimistic on the first statement, and pessimistic on the second. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

I think the team should be better next year with the core they have and have coming up. 

I think the team could be MUCH better if they add quality pitching via free agency and trade. 

I'm optimistic on the first statement, and pessimistic on the second. 

It's in our nature as fans to be optimistic.  

For example, Devers's shoulder issues made him a shell of himself down the stretch, but most of us are probably living in the hope he'll be back to 100% next year.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

what has the team done the past few offseason to make a fan optimistic?

Nothing.  So what? irrelevant. 

What does a guy not on this roster have to do with players on it growing and improving?

 The following players on the 2015 Red Sox came back in 2016 and improved their war by

Mookie Betts +2.6

David Ortiz +1.7

Rick Porcello +4

Dustin Pedroia +1.6

Hanley Ramirez +4

Stephen Wright +3

Sandy Leon +2.6

 

None of that was free agency or offseason moves.  My statement was 100% about this team having the talent on it to grow and bounce back better than 81 wins. 

And let me reiterate, just so there's no confusion. I don't think they can compete for a world series WITHOUT making significant upgrades to the roster. 

 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's in our nature as fans to be optimistic.  

For example, Devers's shoulder issues made him a shell of himself down the stretch, but most of us are probably living in the hope he'll be back to 100% next year.

I'd say by judging this board that fans are not optimistic, optimistic people are optimistic and pessimistic people are pessimistic. 

They both think they're realists. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think signing a front line starter and a closer gets this team better, not subtracting from the bottom of the roster. 

At the end of the day, if Masa is ever healthy and can play a full season he be a 1 WAR guy who can hit off the bench and play LF when needed (which hopefully isn't often).  He's not hurting the team

Of course one has to wonder if he gets hurt and can only start 100 games or so, in which case there will be another roster spot open up anyways 

Perhaps there's a bench bat out there that will take the Sox from 81 wins to 90 wins.  If there's a 9 WAR bench player.......I'd sure like to meet him. 

The reason he hurts "this team" is because the owner is in a stingy phase. If this was John Henry circa 2002-2018, Masa's contract wouldn't matter and the team would be plowing forward. The only reason we talk about moving on from him is that we believe he's a hindrance to their payroll aspirations which is total BS, but it's the new world we are living in. 

In theory, Masa is fine coming off the bench or as a platoon DH. In today's reality, he's preventing the Sox from getting a frontline starter.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd say by judging this board that fans are not optimistic, optimistic people are optimistic and pessimistic people are pessimistic. 

They both think they're realists. 

Oh no. Not this again. If anyone starts saying the p word I'm going to lose it. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I'd say by judging this board that fans are not optimistic, optimistic people are optimistic and pessimistic people are pessimistic. 

They both think they're realists. 

That's fair.

I think Red Sox fans are entitled to be pessimistic at the moment after watching their team play 12 games under .500 over the last 3 seasons, and witnessing 3 straight offseasons of fiscal restraint coupled with costly  blunders on every bigger move.

All that said, I do actually have hopes for Breslow.  I think if they stay with him he could turn things around.  

 

 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

The reason he hurts "this team" is because the owner is in a stingy phase. If this was John Henry circa 2002-2018, Masa's contract wouldn't matter and the team would be plowing forward. The only reason we talk about moving on from him is that we believe he's a hindrance to their payroll aspirations which is total BS, but it's the new world we are living in. 

In theory, Masa is fine coming off the bench or as a platoon DH. In today's reality, he's preventing the Sox from getting a frontline starter.

Well that's my point, if he hurts the team because of the money then how does that help the team by paying him to play somewhere else?

That's like saying this pizza is hurting my diet, I can get rid of it by laying on the couch all day doing nothing. 

I'm still fat at the end of week. 

 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's fair.

I think Red Sox fans are entitled to be pessimistic at the moment after watching their team play 12 games under .500 over the last 3 seasons, and witnessing 3 straight offseasons of fiscal restraint coupled with costly  blunders on every bigger move.

All that said, I do actually have hopes for Breslow.  I think if they stay with him he could turn things around.  

 

 

That's also fair. People are entitled to their opinions.  

I'm entitled to mine, and they're entitled theirs, and I'm entitled to my opinion about their opinions, and they're entit.....I'll stop here. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Well that's my point, if he hurts the team because of the money then how does that help the team by paying him to play somewhere else?

That's like saying this pizza is hurting my diet, I can get rid of it by laying on the couch all day doing nothing. 

I'm still fat at the end of week. 

 

The idea of trading Yoshida had some credibility until we learned he needs shoulder surgery.  The fact we're still talking about it is just because we need something to talk about.

[Bellhorn04]

Tyler O'Neill might actually be a good fit as our 2025 DH.  

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The idea of trading Yoshida had some credibility until we learned he needs shoulder surgery.  The fact we're still talking about it is just because we need something to talk about.

I'd trade Yoshida in a heartbeat if the right deal was on the table. 

I'm just VERY pessimistic that the right deal is on the table. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Get a catcher that can catch? 

As position players go, that should be top of the list.

 

And if said catcher can bat right-handed and frame pitches, even better.

 

Jansen is a perfect fit, but Higashioka feels much more likely…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Well that's my point, if he hurts the team because of the money then how does that help the team by paying him to play somewhere else?

That's like saying this pizza is hurting my diet, I can get rid of it by laying on the couch all day doing nothing. 

I'm still fat at the end of week. 

 

The idea wouldn't be to pay 100% of his salary I believe. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Tyler O'Neill might actually be a good fit as our 2025 DH.  

It's probably his primary position going forward anyway considering the direction his defense is heading. 

[moonslav59]

The vast majority of our key returning players are pre-prime or prime. That is something to be optimistic about, along with the 3-5 promising prospects beating down the MLB door.

By April, only these guys are end of prime or post-prime, and none are really super-key players, except Story and maybe Hendriks, if we don't add top RP'ers:

31 Yoshida

32 Story & Fulmer

34 Refsnyder

36 Hendriks

I think it's unrealistic to think we don't get some major boost from Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Fitts or Guerrero. It might be unrealistic to expect two to be full timers, as well.

Yes, we lose Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and O'Neill. We need to add more than Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer to come close to replacing them and adding more value to improve on 81-81. They do offer some hope and some value, and should help, but we need 2-3 major additions to get significantly better. (I'd like 4, but 3 might be the limit.)

I'd add a top closer/RP'er and set up man.

Add a #2 SP'er.

Add a catcher with some RHB pop. (Trade for Jeffers?)

That could be enough.

I'd like to point out one more thing: while we lose O'Neill's 473 PAs at an .847 OPS and team leading 31 HRs, he did knock in just 61 batters, and we also lose or should see way less PAs from these guys, which is more PAs than O'Neill gave us:

.706 Smith (278 PAs)

.633 Valdez (223)

.575 McGuire (158)

.623 Jansen (96)

.410 Dalbec (93) + .455 Cooper (75)

.451 Reyes (64) + .584 Westbrook (48)+ .650 Sogard (86)

How many PAs DHam .697 (317) and Grissom .465 (114) get and how well they do could be a big factor, but the hope is that Story .733 (106) eats up most of the scrub IF PAs from 2024 and some of Rafaela's IF PAs. Campbell and Mayer offer some better hope than many listed above. Romy as the back-up 1Bman may do better than Cooper & Dalbec, but maybe not Dom Smith.

Getting a catcher like Jeffers could boost our RHB power and greatly improve on McGuire and jansen's production in 2024. It would also allow Wong to be more of a back-up catcher and 1Bman.

If Anthony and Campbell can improve on Rafaela's OF production, on offense, that could be the boost we need to overtake the loss of O'Neill, all by itself.

We do have a lot of "ifs," but having so many promising "ifs" is not a bad thing, and it's not like many are long shots. Many have already shown a lot of promise, such as Casas, Abreu and even Wong & DHam, to some extent. Duran, Devers and Ref vs LHPs are proven producers. Rafaela could take a step back, but we have Anthony & Campbell.

To me, adding a solid RHB Catcher with pop is all the offense needs to project better production for 2025. That does not mean we get it, but on paper, it should be better. (I hate depending on Story, but having Mayer and the return of DHam, Grissom, Romy and maybe Campbell improves the depth, too.)

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Well that's my point, if he hurts the team because of the money then how does that help the team by paying him to play somewhere else?

That's like saying this pizza is hurting my diet, I can get rid of it by laying on the couch all day doing nothing. 

I'm still fat at the end of week. 

 

I wouldn’t agree Yoshida’s contract is preventing the Sox from getting a frontline starter.  I think that ship has sailed.

The Sox payroll is down some $50mill or so from its peak.  You don’t drop that much payroll if you’re continually re-investing…

[notin]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's probably his primary position going forward anyway considering the direction his defense is heading. 

Of course that also might impede his return should he prefer not to DH…

[moonslav59]

Right now, I'm really liking how we might be able to make a deal with MN.

Apparently, they are looking to retool, and we have a lot of young players and prospects, some seemingly blocked or bottle-necked to give them.

Ober and Ryan were mentioned, but I'm not sure why they would look to deal them, now, when they both have 1 pre-arb year left + 3 arbs, but they would be the prize of any deal with them. They also have Pablo Lopez, who is owed $21.8M per year x 3, but the lux tax hit is just $18.4M/yr. My guess is, they'd prefer to move him over Ober or Ryan, but they'd get a better return for the the cheaper guys. To me, another big prize would be prying Ryan Jeffers from them. He has just one arb year left, so he's not in their long term plans. Jeffers could give us that big RH'd power bat we need. He has a .784 OPS from 2023-2024 and is just 27. He averaged about 29 HRs and 85 RBI per 650 PAs in those two seasons. That's about what O'Neill gave us.

A SP'er and Jeffer for _____ ?

Would they insist on Mayer or Campbell?

Would they take Wong and Abreu plus others, instead of a top prospect?

Would Casas, Wong and Dobbins be enough, or would it take Abreu, too?

It's hard to know what MN wants.

 

[harmony]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Right now, I'm really liking how we might be able to make a deal with MN.

Apparently, they are looking to retool, and we have a lot of young players and prospects, some seemingly blocked or bottle-necked to give them.

Ober and Ryan were mentioned, but I'm not sure why they would look to deal them, now, when they both have 1 pre-arb year left + 3 arbs, but they would be the prize of any deal with them. They also have Pablo Lopez, who is owed $21.8M per year x 3, but the lux tax hit is just $18.4M/yr. My guess is, they'd prefer to move him over Ober or Ryan, but they'd get a better return for the the cheaper guys. To me, another big prize would be prying Ryan Jeffers from them. He has just one arb year left, so he's not in their long term plans. Jeffers could give us that big RH'd power bat we need. He has a .784 OPS from 2023-2024 and is just 27. He averaged about 29 HRs and 85 RBI per 650 PAs in those two seasons. That's about what O'Neill gave us.

A SP'er and Jeffer for _____ ?

Would they insist on Mayer or Campbell?

Would they take Wong and Abreu plus others, instead of a top prospect?

Would Casas, Wong and Dobbins be enough, or would it take Abreu, too?

It's hard to know what MN wants.

 

Ryan Jeffers has two years of team control with a projected 2025 salary of $4.7 million. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's in our nature as fans to be optimistic.  

Were you posting here in March?

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Right now, I'm really liking how we might be able to make a deal with MN.

Apparently, they are looking to retool, and we have a lot of young players and prospects, some seemingly blocked or bottle-necked to give them.

Ober and Ryan were mentioned, but I'm not sure why they would look to deal them, now, when they both have 1 pre-arb year left + 3 arbs, but they would be the prize of any deal with them. They also have Pablo Lopez, who is owed $21.8M per year x 3, but the lux tax hit is just $18.4M/yr. My guess is, they'd prefer to move him over Ober or Ryan, but they'd get a better return for the the cheaper guys. To me, another big prize would be prying Ryan Jeffers from them. He has just one arb year left, so he's not in their long term plans. Jeffers could give us that big RH'd power bat we need. He has a .784 OPS from 2023-2024 and is just 27. He averaged about 29 HRs and 85 RBI per 650 PAs in those two seasons. That's about what O'Neill gave us.

A SP'er and Jeffer for _____ ?

Would they insist on Mayer or Campbell?

Would they take Wong and Abreu plus others, instead of a top prospect?

Would Casas, Wong and Dobbins be enough, or would it take Abreu, too?

It's hard to know what MN wants.

 

Jeffers is among the worst defensive catchers in MLB.  His skillet is remarkably similar to that of Connor Wong…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nobody knows what any of the Fab Four can contribute in 2025.

Phanatics and pundits alike may be counting a bit too much on overnight sensations generated by our mop-top lads. The future's so bright, but it's not made in the shade:

Triple A Worcester, last stop in 2024 for most of our great hyped hopes, had a fine second half, with the second-best record in the International League;

Double A Portland -- where Boston's top prospects starred most of the summer -- was also the second-best team in the second half in the Eastern League;

But the org with the best second-half clubs in the IL and EL? The New York Yankees...

Neither Portland nor Woo finished first in either half-season, but the Sea Dogs did have the overall best record, 18 games over .500. Worcester had the second-best overall record, 8 games over .500...

... the Yanks' IL affiliate -- Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders were 29 games over .500 -- but so what; they can't even fit their whole name on a t-shirt! (I may be an unrealist, but never a fakest).

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, harmony said:

Ryan Jeffers has two years of team control with a projected 2025 salary of $4.7 million. 

Yes, I misread the columns.

We'd need to offer more, then.

Is jeffers any good on D?

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Jeffers is among the worst defensive catchers in MLB.  His skillet is remarkably similar to that of Connor Wong…

YIKES!

That surprises me and makes me wonder, if he should be a target for us.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Jeffers is among the worst defensive catchers in MLB.  His skillet is remarkably similar to that of Connor Wong…

Blocking: -4 Jeffers and -12 Wong

Framing: both -7

Throwing: Jeffers +2 and Wong 0 (Jeffers had better pop time in '24.)

DRS (fangraphs)

-4 Jeffers

-14 Wong